Nevada's First in the West caucuses
are a relatively new step in the presidential nominating process,
having been introduced in 2008. The Silver State does not get as
many visits or as much attention as Iowa and New Hampshire, but as the
third contest on the Democrats' 2020 calendar, Nevada could give a
timely boost to the candidate or candidates who do well here.
First-in-the-West
After the cold and snow of Iowa and New Hampshire, the
now thinned
field of Democratic candidates came
West to the desert state of Nevada. Thirteen Democrats met the
requirements to
participate in the Feb. 22, 2020 Nevada caucuses and appeared on the
caucus ballot (+), but six
of these had ended their campaigns.
On
the Republican side, in
a
nod
to
the
incumbent
president, Nevada was one of several states
not holding a nominating contest; the party's
state central committee voted on Sept. 7, 2019 to scrap the
caucuses.
The Silver State
With a population of 3.1 million (>), Nevada has been one of the fastest growing states. According to the Census Bureau from July 1, 2018 to July 1, 2019 the population grew by 1.7%, the second fastest of any state after Idaho (>). Most of the population is concentrated in the Las Vegas area; the city itself has a population of 641,676, while Clark County has a population of 2.2 million (>). The state boasts a diverse population. The Census Bureau July 1, 2019 estimates show: White alone 48.7%, Hispanic or Latino 29.0%, Black or African American alone 10.1%, and Asian alone 8.7% (>). According to the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs as of Sept. 30, 2017 there are 218,406 veterans living in Nevada or 10.35% of the adult population (>); a Nov. 2018 Newsweek analysis found Nevada ranked 16th in terms of veterans as a share of the population 18 years and older (>). According to The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, there are 183,638 members in the state in 339 congregations, or 6.13% of the population, which is the fourth highest concentration in the 50 states (>).
The Nevada economy was very hard hit by collapse of
the housing bubble. According to an ABC News report from Jan.
2011, Nevada had the highest state foreclosure rate of any state for
four years in a row. By the end of 2019 the foreclosure rate
had improved significantly and Nevada was ninth in the country at 0.42%
(>).
As
of
Dec.
2019
the
unemployment
rate
stood
at
3.8%
(>), 36th
in the
country. Tourism and the gambling industry are cornerstones of
the Nevada economy. Major issues include water and
immigration. Second Amendment rights are important in the
state, but countering that Las Vegas was also the scene of the largest
mass shooting in American history in Oct. 2017. The proposed
Yucca
Mountain nuclear waste repository (>),
while
on
hold,
remains
an
issue
(>);
in
2018
the
Department
of
Energy
secretly
shipped
1/2
metric
ton
of
plutonium
to
the
Nevada
National
Security
Site
(>).
Nevada has long had a libertarian reputation (although in Nov. 2012 Las Vegas Review-Journal columnist Steve Sebelius pointed out that other states were moving ahead of Nevada in areas such as legalizing gay marriage and marijuana >). Countering the libertarian tendencies, Mormons have a fairly conservative set of values.
As of Jan. 2020, 72.3% of the 1,601,889 active registered voters in
Nevada lived in
Clark County (Las Vegas area), another 17.7% in Washoe County (Reno)
and the remaining 10% are scattered throughout the rest of the state (>).
610,911
(38.1%)
were
Democrats,
527,641
(32.9%)
Republicans,
362,855
(22.7%) non-partisan,
and
the
rest
other
parties.
In
general
election
contests
for
president,
Nevada
has
been
a
battleground
state,
backing
George
W.
Bush
in
2000
and
2004
but
Barack
Obama
in
2008
and
2012
and
Hillary
Clinton
in
2016.
An Eventful Pre-Campaign: 2018 1
Democrats enjoyed a very successful 2018 midterm cycle
(+).
At
the
federal
level,
U.S.
Rep.
Jacky
Rosen
(D)
defeated
incumbent
U.S.
Sen.
Dean
Heller
(R),
who
had
been
backed
by
President
Trump,
by
50.4%
to
45.4%,
and
Democrats
kept
the
balance
of
the
House
delegation
at
3D,
1R
by
holding
on
to
the
two
open
seats.
At
the
state
level,
Clark
County
Commission
Chairman Steve Sisolak (D)
defeated Attorney General Adam Laxalt (R) by 49.4% to 45.3% to succeed
Gov. Brian Sandoval (R). Democrats picked up a couple of
seats in both the state Senate and state House ensuring a
trifecta. Seventeen Democratic women were elected to the state
Assembly, and women comprise more than half of the Democratic
caucus. In addition to the Governor's seat, Democrats also won
four of five other statewide races including very tight ones for
Attorney General and Treasurer:
Lt. Governor – Kate Marshall (D) def. Michael Roberson
(R) by 50.4% to 43.7%
Attorney General – Aaron D. Ford (D) def. Wesley Duncan (R) by 47.2% to
46.8%
Treasurer – Zach Conine (D) def. Bob Beers (R) by 47.7% to 47.1%
Controller – Catherine Byrne (D) def. inc. Ron Knecht (R) by 50.6% to
46.2%
They narrowly lost for Secetary of State as incumbent
Barbara Cegavske (R) defeated Nelson Araujo (D) by 48.9% to 48.2%.
On the Trail in 2019-20: Finding and Appealing to the Voters...
In accordance with DNC rules changes following the
work of the Unity Reform Commission, the Nevada Democratic State Party
sought to make the caucuses more open and accessible to
voters. Although a proposal for virtual caucuses was dropped due
to security concerns, the party developed a plan which called for four
days of early early voting from Feb. 15-18, in
addition
to
the
in-person
caucuses
to
be
held
on
Saturday
Feb.
22. Shelby Wiltz, the Nevada Democratic
State Party 2020 Caucus Director, led preparations
for the
caucuses, working for almost a year starting in Mar. 2019.
Fourteen Democratic campaigns established
presences in Nevada during the course of the caucus campaign, but by
the time of the
caucuses there were only six candidates actively competing (the
seventh, Gabbard, was focusing elsewhere). As they built their
caucus campaigns, candidates
appealed to various constituencies around the state, such as Latinos,
workers on the Las Vegas strip, veterans, and rural voters.
Unions were key
players (+),
particularly
Culinary
Workers
Union
Local
226,
which
represents
60,000
workers
in
Las
Vegas
and
Reno,
including
those
at casino resorts on the Las Vegas Strip.
The
Culinary
Workers
remained
neutral,
but late in the campaign issued a scorecard which took a swipe at
Sanders (+).
In
terms
of
endorsements,
the
Democratic
Governor
and
two
Democratic
U.S.
Senators
did
not
endorse.
While
some
state
legislators endorsed,
many more did not; the relative numbers were much lower than in Iowa
and New Hampshire. Biden could point to noteworthy
endorsements, including two of the three Democratic members of Congress
and the lieutenant governor.
Nevada did not get nearly as many candidate visits as
Iowa and New Hampshire, but there was a steady trickle. On the
eve of the caucuses, The Nevada
Independent's candidate tracker showed that the surviving
candidates had each made between nine and 11 visits to the state.
The
signature
event of the cycle was the state party's First
in
the
West, which drew 14 candidates to Las Vegas on Nov. 17, 2019. Major
multi-candidate
events,
all
in
Las
Vegas,
included:
Apr.
27,
2019
- National
Forum
on
Wages
and
Working
People (SEIU
/
CAP
Action
Fund).
Aug.
3,
2019
- AFSCME
2020
Public
Service
Forum.
Oct.
2,
2019
- Giffords
and
March
For
Our
Lives
Presidential
Forum
on
Gun
Safety.
Oct.
26,
2019
-
People's
Presidential
Forum.
Nov. 17, 2020 - Nevada
State
Democratic
Party First in the West.
Jan.
14-15,
2020 - Native
American
Presidential
Forum
2020.
Feb. 15, 2020 - Clark
County
Democrats'
Kick-Off
to
Caucus.
Feb. 16, 2020 - "Moving
America
Forward"
Presidential
Candidate
Forum.
Six candidates participated in the NBC
News
and
MSNBC
debate at Paris Theater on Feb. 19.
The campaign in Nevada
was nowhere near as visible as in Iowa and New
Hampshire. There were not the yard signs in many people's front
yards as in Iowa or on major thoroughfares as in New Hampshire.
Driving around Las Vegas, one did see Steyer ads in the rotation on
electronic billboards around the city. The air war was fully
engaged; there were broadcast ads from the campaigns and others; The
Nevada Independent identified seven outside groups running TV or radio
ads in the closing stretch of the campaign (>).
After
the Iowa caucuses, the campaigns bolstered their Nevada staff
with staffers who had worked in Iowa. Following the debacle in
reporting of the results of the Feb. 3 Iowa caucuses, there was
considerable nervousness about what might happen in Nevada, but the
state
party vowed it would avoid such problems.
The expectation heading
into Caucus Day was that Sanders would win; he led in polls, trailed by
the other candidates who were grouped fairly closely together.
Early voting
from Feb.
15-18 drew almost 75,000 participants. The
Feb. 19 debate proved to be a
lively affair, most memorable for sharp attacks on Michael Bloomberg,
who was making his first appearance on the debate stage but not
competing in Nevada. Participation on Caucus Day, Feb. 22, was
very small, about 30,000
people. Total turnout of 104,833 fell between the
record
117,599 set in 2008 and the "about 84,000" in 2016.
Although
Republicans
scrapped their caucuses, President Trump, as he did in Iowa and New
Hampshire, made a show of force, holding a rally in Las Vegas on Feb.
21, just ahead of voting.
Sanders achieved a solid win, indeed this proved to be the high point of his campaign [results and reactions]. 2020 will likely be the last time Nevada uses caucuses as part of its delegate selection process; following the caucuses both former U.S. Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid and Nevada Democratic Chair William McCurdy II advocated for changing to a primary process while keeping Nevada first in the West or in the nation.
Developing a Tradition: Nevada Caucuses in 2008, 2012
and 2016
The first early Nevada presidential caucuses were held in 2008. The Democratic National Committee was seeking to diversify the beginning of its nominating process; then Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid played a key role in advocating for the early caucus. On Aug. 19, 2006 at its summer meeting in Chicago the full DNC voted to add the Nevada caucuses to the pre-window period; the date was set for Jan. 19, 2008. Nevada Republicans, not wanting to be left on the sidelines, approved a move to Jan. 19 in a near unanimous vote during their April 21, 2007 meeting in Carson City. Republicans and Democrats again held early caucuses in 2012 and 2016, but on different dates.
2008
The Nevada caucuses do not have the long tradition of New Hampshire or
Iowa. Democrats led in the creation of the First in the West
caucuses, and
Nevada Democrats thus had a significant head start in preparing for
their caucuses; there was much more activity on the Democratic
side. 117,599 Democrats participated in the Democratic precinct
caucuses, double the numbers predicted, and Sen. Hillary Clinton edged
out a win over Sen. Barack Obama by 50.8% to 45.0% (+). Only
43,578 Republicans participated in the GOP precinct caucuses,
delivering a solid win to former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney; he
obtained 51% of the vote to 13% each for Rep. Ron Paul and Sen. John
McCain. Many observers attributed Romney's win to high turnout
among Mormons (+).
2012
In 2012 the two parties diverged on the dates (1, 2, 3);
Democrats held non-competitive caucuses on Jan. 21. President
Obama was unchallenged, but more than 12,000 people gathered at 118
caucus locations and 1,553 precincts (+).
Nevada Republicans held their precinct caucuses on Feb. 4, making
it the fourth GOP contest after the Jan. 21 South Carolina primary.
From the beginning former Gov. Mitt Romney was considered the
favorite in Nevada; he had won the 2008 caucuses and it was expected he
would benefit from the state's high Mormon population. Rep. Ron
Paul achieved one of his better showings in 2008 here, and his campaign
built a strong organization for 2012. Gov. Rick Perry had the
support of Gov. Brian Sandoval, but he bowed out before the South
Carolina primary. Just 32,894
people participated in the Feb. 4 Nevada Republican caucuses; to put
that in perspective, as of January
2012 there were 400,310 active registered Republicans in Nevada.
As
expected,
Romney
finished
first
with
50.0%;
Newt
Gingrich
came
in
second
at
21.1%
and
Rand
Paul
was
third
at
18.7%.
2016
Heading into 2016, some Republicans sought to change the caucus system
to a primary election. On May 12, 2015 the state Senate passed S.B.
421, which would have changed the primary date from June to the
last Tuesday in February, by a party line vote of 11 to 9. A.B.
302, introduced on March 13, 2015, would have allowed political
parties to hold a presidential primary election, with the cost to be
borne by the state. However the Legislature failed to act before
it adjourned on June 2.
The two parties again held their contests on different
dates. Nevada was the third contest for Democrats after Iowa and
New Hampshire (+); the
Democratic caucuses took place Saturday, Feb. 20, ahead of the Feb. 27
South Carolina Democratic primary. For Republicans, South
Carolina's traditional early primary took precedence. The
Republican caucuses occurred on Tuesday, Feb. 23, three days after the
February 20 South Carolina Republican primary.
> About 84,000
people participated in the Feb. 20 Democratic caucuses, significantly
fewer than the 117,599 who participated in 2008. Former Secretary
of State Hillary Clinton finished ahead of Sen. Bernie Sanders by 52.2%
to 46.9% of county convention delegates (+).
County
conventions
were
held
on
April
2.
The
state
convention
on
May
14
drew
national
headlines when it devolved into chaos (+).
According
to
the
state
party,
"Based
on
the
county
convention
results,
Bernie
Sanders
had
2,124
delegate
slots
to
the
State
Convention
and
Hillary
Clinton
had
1,722
delegate
slots
to
the
State
Convention."
However,
Clinton
filled
98
percent
of
her
available
delegate
slots
at
the
State
Convention,
while
Sanders
only
filled
78
percent
of
his
available
delegate
slots.
Sanders
supporters
charged
misconduct
by
the chair, but the net result was 20
national convention delegates for Clinton to 15 for Sanders.
>
Nevada Republicans reported record turnout of 75,000 voters, a vast
improvement upon 2012. Five candidates were actively
competing. Donald J. Trump won his third straight early contest,
by 45.9% to 23.9% for Sen. Marco Rubio and 21.38% to Sen. Ted Cruz.
Notes:
1. A parenthetical note. In 2018 Nevada Republicans made an
effort to attract the 2020 Republican National Convention to Las Vegas;
President Trump reportedly was interested in the idea, but the notion
of
holding the convention in "sin city" apparently did not sit well with
advisors and the prize went to Charlotte, NC. Las Vegas also made
a strong bid to host the 2016 Republican National Convention.
