During the pre-primary period—the year following the mid-term elections—the field of presidential candidates takes shape. The race for campaign talent and money, sometimes called "the invisible primary," unfolds. The candidates make their pitches in a variety of venues and forums. Differences on issues between the candidates begin to crystallize. Ad campaigns start. Some candidates pull ahead, and a few make early exits.
Launch: Big Picture
Each election cycle is unique. The 2020 cycle was characterized by a very large field of Democratic hopefuls in the early stages, in part precipitated by the tenor, policies and chaos of the Trump presidency. The large Democratic field was almost the inverse of the 2016 race, when 17 Republicans vied for the GOP nomination with no clear frontrunner. In contrast to the ridiculously large early Democratic field, on the Republican side President Trump was seen as the almost inevitable nominee. The big difference from 2016 is that Trump is an incumbent president seeking re-election and has infrastructure in place to facilitate his re-election. While Democrats sort out who their nominee will be, Trump has the bully pulpit of the White House and his campaign, which really never stopped, has been building a robust operation, fully complemented by the RNC (+).
The 2020 race had an earlier start than in the last
two presidential cycles and was more similar to 2007 [recent cycles]. In the
2015-16 cycle Sen. Ted Cruz became the first major candidate to
formally announce his candidacy, on Mar. 23, 2015, and the bulk of
formal announcements occurred in May and June 2015. By the end of
March 2019 there were already more than a dozen declared Democratic
candidates, and by May over 20 had declared their candidacies.
The field included six women, three African Americans, a Latino, an
Asian and a gay man; there is a forty year spread between the youngest
and the oldest candidate. Among the hopefuls were seven U.S.
Senators, four members of the U.S. House, governors and former
governors, mayors, and several
individuals from the private sector.
The nascent Democratic campaigns set to work raising
money,
attracting talent, building organizations and staking out
positions. As with a germinating sprout or seedling, this is a
vulnerable time for a candidacy; negative stories can be particularly
damaging in this period when more engaged citizens are forming their
first impressions. Campaigns focus much of their resources on
preparing for the four early state contests.
As 2019 progressed
the candidates, Democratic voters and the media became more fully
engaged. Various "cattle show" events afforded the candidates
opportunities to make their cases to audiences of activists.
Candidates sought to distinguish themselves from the crowded field
and present themselves as the one who coulld make the strongest
challenge
to President Trump. The first Democratic debates in June and July
took place over two nights to accomodate the large number of
candidates, but the DNC
criteria limited successive debates so that only six
candidates were on stage at the final debate before the Iowa caucuses
on January 14. Campaigns built up extensive field organizations
in the early states and spent millions on advertising
campaigns. They flooded potential voters with mail and
calls. Meanwhile, behind
the scenes, campaigns pursued the vital but unglamorous work of getting
on state ballots and lining up full delegate slates. Along the
way the field became "tier-ized." Top-tier candidates get
prominent coverage, while "the rest of the field" candidates face the
challenge of not being taken quite as seriously and getting less
coverage and less prominent coverage.
Before the first contest in Iowa, more than a dozen
Democrats had ended their bids
after
failing to gain traction or running out of money. While many
candidates were falling by the wayside, the entry of billionaire
Michael Bloomberg into the race in November could short circuit the
Democrats' nominating process. From the outset Bloomberg said he
would skip the four early
state contests. He did not participate in the numerous multi-candidate
forums that the other candidates had been engaging in over many
months.
Instead, in the pre-primary period, Bloomberg built up huge
organizations in the Super Tuesday states, paying for top talent and
investing
hundreds of millions of dollars in TV advertising. According to
its FEC filing, the Bloomberg campaign had spent an astounding $460
million through the end of Jan. 2020.
Toe in the Water or Leaping In
Once an individual has decided to run he or she can
take many different approaches en route to formally announcing his or
her candidacy and entering the race. In the pre-campaign period
and early primary period, they may use vehicles such as leadership
PACs, 527 organizations, and 501(c)(4)s to conduct pre-campaign or one
could say "pseudo-campaign" activities.
Without filing with the Federal Election Commission, an individual can engage in very limited testing the waters activities such as "conducting a poll, telephone calls, and travel" for the purpose of determining whether he or she should become a candidate (1, 2). Although there is normally a $5,000 threshold that triggers candidate registration with the FEC, individuals can continue in "testing the waters" mode without becoming candidates provided they do not cross certain boundaries, such as referring to themselves as candidates or raising more money than is reasonably needed. If the individual does become a candidate, activities in the testing the waters period must be reported. For example, U.S. Rep. Eric Swalwell (CA) was among the most active of the pre-candidates in 2017-18, financing his travel through his congressional committee.
Most often individuals forego the testing the waters
phase and file with the FEC to establish an exploratory committee or a
full-fledged campaign
committee, which brings with it the requirement of filing
reports on contributions and expenditures. Candidates are
required to file a statement of candidacy and a statement of
organization with the FEC (>).
The
committee
must
also
be
incorporated.
Once
an
individual
has
established
an
exploratory
committee
it
is
likely,
but
not
certain,
that
he
or
she
will
run.
The
exploratory
label
provides
time
for
the
candidate
and
the
campaign
team
to
gear
up
operations.
Transforming
an
exploratory
committee
into
a full fledged campaign
committee is simply a matter of amending the statement of organization.
In terms of timing of a candidate's announcement, ultimately the candidate needs to "run his or her own race" weighing personal and professional factors. Still, outside forces are at play. The crowded field seeking to take on Trump in 2020 may have created an impetus for some candidates to get in to the race earlier than they might have wanted to. There are other reasons for a presidential hopeful to get in sooner rather than later. Long-shot candidates may figure they will need more time to build up their campaigns. Thus U.S. Rep. John Delaney (MD) announced his candidacy in July 2017 and entrepreneur Andrew Yang entered in Feb. 2018.
At the same time there are reasons why a presidential
prospect may want to put off becoming a candidate for a bit. A
full campaign is a grind, requiring long hours, extensive travel,
incessant fundraising demands and intense media scrutiny. Taking
a measured approach can allow the prospect to "line up his or her
ducks." Former Vice President Joe Biden took this tack in
announcing in late April 2019. From a strictly financial point of
view, a later start can mean a less costly campaign. Once a
hopeful launches, he or she has to give up many activities and becomes
subject to the reporting requirements of the FEC. For this cycle
many candidates chose to enter in the first quarter of 2019, but some
held off until after the first quarter fundraising period had
concluded.
Elected officials currently holding office must be
mindful of their constituents. Officials who were up for
re-election in 2018 avoided much overt 2020 activity until after Nov.
6. Governors have their full range of executive responsibilities
to tend to. For example, in the first part of 2019, potential
candidate Gov. Steve Bullock (D-MT) was wrestling with Medicaid
expansion in his home state which forced him to cancel a New Hampshire
trip and he wanted to get through the legislative session.
Senators and congressmen must balance missing votes with the need to be
out on the trail.
In several instances, health issues affected the
timing of a candidate's announcement. Sen. Michael Bennet was
treated for prostate cancer, while former U.S. Rep. Joe Sestak tended
to cancer in his daughter and former Gov. Deval Patrick delayed his bid
due to
cancer in his wife.
Also affecting calculations are filing deadlines and
the dates of the first contests. In the 2008 and 2012 cycles, the
Iowa caucuses were held on January 3. The national parties have
reined in the frontloading push, so the 2016 Iowa caucuses were held on
February 1 and the 2020 Iowa caucuses on
February 3.
There were several late entrants: retired Adm.
and former U.S. Rep. Joe Sestak (June 22), investor Tom Steyer (July
9), former Gov. Deval Patrick (Nov. 14) and former New
York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg (Nov. 24). The Patrick and
Bloomberg announcements were very late. Late entrants from recent
cycles include Gov. Rick Perry (R-TX) (Aug.
13, 2011) former Sen. Fred Thompson (R-TN) (Sept. 6,
2007), and Gen. Wesley Clark (D) (Sept. 17,
2003). In his successful 1992 campaign Gov. Bill Clinton (D)
announced on Oct. 4, 1991.
Some candidates have a tendency to draw their
announcements out and try to milk as much publicity out of them as
possible. For example, a pre-candidate may appear on a talk show
or late night program, drop the news that he or she plans to establish
an exploratory committee, then some days or weeks later get a bit more
news by actually establishing an exploratory committee, and then still
later on formally announce that he or she is a full-fledged
candidate. Relatively few candidates took the exploratory route
in the 2019-20 cycle. The most common scenario for the 2020
Democrats was to release an announcement video and follow it sometime
later with an actual annoucement event.
A candidate's announcement event is full of symbolism (+).
Everything
from
the
location
to
the
introductory
speakers
can
help
convey
the
message.
Surrounded
by
family
and
cheering
supporters,
the
candidate
outlines
the
themes
that
he
or
she
will
call
upon
repeatedly
during
the
course
of
the
campaign.
Candidates
usually
do
an
extensive
round
of
media
appearances
in conjunction with their
announcements. Many candidates will do an announcement tour,
delivering the same or similar speeches at stops in key states.
There is no requirement that a candidate do any kind of announcement
event, but it is a nice way to set out the tone and objectives of a
campaign. The problem with a big announcement event is the
attention only lasts for one news cycle. Thus some candidates opt
to forego the expense and trouble of a formal announcement event and
simply announce their campaigns in media appearances or via web
video.
In addition to those who enter the race, there are those who decide
not to run. One can recall a number of examples of potential
candidates who came quite close to entering the race before pulling the
plug. Most famously in Dec. 1991 then-Gov. Mario Cuomo (D-NY) had
a chartered plane ready to take him to New Hampshire before announcing
that he would not run due to the demands of governing New York.
This cycle Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) seemed poised to run. He
focused on his re-election campaign in 2018, waiting until after
Election Day to ramp up his activity through his America Works
PAC. Brown "campaigned" for several months on the theme of the
"Dignity of Work" before his surprise announcement on Mar. 7,
2019 that he would not run.
Declared
Candidates:
FEC Form 2 |
Exploratory |
Announcement |
Rally/Event |
|
DEMOCRATIC | graphics |
|||
U.S. Rep. John Delaney (MD) |
Aug. 10, 2017 |
- |
July
28, 2017 |
- |
Andrew Yang (NY) |
Nov. 6, 2017 |
- |
Feb.
2,
2018 |
- |
State Sen. Richard Ojeda (WV) |
Nov.
11, 2018 |
- |
Nov.
12, 2018 |
Nov.
19,
2018 |
Former Sec. Julián Castro (TX) |
Dec.
19, 2018 |
Dec.
12,
2018 |
Jan.
12,
2019 |
>> |
U.S. Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (HI) |
Jan. 11, 2019 |
- |
Jan.
11,
2019 |
Feb.
2,
2019 |
U.S. Sen. Kamala Harris (CA) |
Jan. 21, 2019 |
- |
Jan.
21,
2019 |
Jan.
27,
2019 |
Marianne Williamson |
Feb. 4, 2019 |
Nov.
15,
2018 |
Jan.
28,
2019 |
>> |
U.S. Sen. Cory Booker (NJ) |
Feb. 1, 2019 |
- |
Feb.
1,
2019 |
Apr.
13,
2019 |
U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (MA) |
Feb. 9, 2019 |
Dec.
31,
2018 |
Feb. 9, 2019 | >> |
U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar (MN) |
Feb. 11, 2019 |
- |
Feb.
10,
2019 |
>> |
U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders (VT) |
Feb.
19,
2019 |
- |
Feb. 19, 2019 | Mar.
2,
2019 |
Gov. Jay Inslee (WA) |
Mar. 1, 2019 |
- |
Mar.
1,
2019 |
>> |
Fmr. Gov. John Hickenlooper (CO) |
Mar. 4, 2019 |
- |
Mar.
4,
2019 |
Mar.
7,
2019 |
Fmr. U.S. Rep. Beto O'Rourke (TX) |
Mar. 14, 2019 |
- |
Mar.
14,
2019 |
Mar. 30, 2019 |
U.S. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (NY) |
Jan.
15, 2019 |
Jan.
15,
2019 |
Mar.
17,
2019 |
>> |
Mayor Wayne Messam (FL) |
Mar.
15, 2019 |
Mar. 13, 2019 |
Mar.
28,
2019 |
Mar.
30,
2019 |
U.S. Rep. Tim Ryan (OH) |
Apr.
11, 2019 |
- |
Apr.
4, 2019 |
Apr. 6, 2019 |
U.S. Rep. Eric Swalwell (CA) | Apr. 8, 2019 |
- | Apr.
8,
2019 |
Apr.
14,
2019 |
Mayor Pete Buttigieg (IN) |
Feb. 22, 2019 | Jan. 23, 2019 | Apr. 14, 2019 | >> |
U.S.
Rep.
Seth
Moulton
(MA) |
May
7, 2019 |
- |
Apr.
22,
2019 |
- |
Former Vice President Joe Biden
(DE) |
Apr. 25, 2019 |
- |
Apr.
25,
2019 |
May
18, 2019 |
U.S. Sen. Michael Bennet (CO) |
May
5, 2019 |
- |
May
2,
2019 |
- |
Gov. Steve Bullock (MT) |
May 14, 2019 |
- |
May
14,
2019 |
- |
Mayor Bill de Blasio (NY) |
May
16, 2019 |
- |
May
16,
2019 |
- |
Fmr. Adm./U.S.Rep. Joe Sestak
(PA) |
July
1, 2019 |
- |
June
22,
2019 |
- |
Tom Steyer (CA) |
July
9, 2019 |
- |
July
9,
2019 |
- |
Former Gov. Deval Patrick (MA) |
- |
Nov.
14,
2019 |
- |
|
Fmr. Mayor Mike Bloomberg (NY) |
- |
Nov.
24,
2019 |
- | |
REPUBLICAN |
||||
Pres. Donald J. Trump (FL) |
Jan. 20, 2017 |
June
18,
2019 |
||
Former Gov. Bill Weld (MA) NY | Apr.
1, 2019 |
Feb. 16, 2019 | Apr.
15, 2019 |
|
Former U..S. Rep. Joe Walsh (IL) |
- | Aug. 25, 2019 | - | |
Former Gov. Mark Sanford (SC) |
- | Sept. 8, 2019 | - |
Candidates file two forms with the FEC:
Form 1 is the Statement of Organization and Form 2 is the Statement of
Candidacy.
This table shows the dates the Form 2s were filed, i.e. received, by
the FEC.
The DNC also had candidates sign a "Presidential
Candidate
Written
Affirmation."
DEMOCRATIC |
|
Gov. Andrew Cuomo
(NY) |
Aug. 29, 2018 and Nov. 27, 2018 |
Former Gov. Deval Patrick (MA) |
Dec.
6,
2018 |
Former Gov. Martin O'Malley (MD) |
Jan.
3,
2019 |
Tom Steyer |
Jan.
8,
2019 |
Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti |
Jan.
29,
2019 |
Former Attorney General Eric
Holder |
Mar. 4, 2019 |
U.S. Sen. Jeff Merkley (OR) |
Mar.
5,
2019 |
Former NYC Mayor Mike Bloomberg |
Mar.
5,
2019 |
U.S. Sen. Sherrod Brown (OH) |
Mar.
7,
2019 |
Former Gov. Terry McAuliffe (VA) |
Apr.
17,
2019 |
Seemingly every presidential cycle, there is discussion about the
possibility that a credible independent candidate could emerge, but by
the end of the primary season it never happens. In the 2016 cycle
former Sen. Jim Webb (D) had a look at an independent run as did former
Mayor Michael Bloomberg. This cycle attention focused on former
Starbucks executive chairman Howard Schultz (+).
In
June
2018
Schultz
left
his
position
at
Starbucks,
and
his
appearance
on
the
Jan.
27,
2019
CBS
News'
"60
Minutes"
crystallized
matters.
"I
am
seriously
thinking
of
running
for
president,"
Schultz
stated.
"I
will
run
as
a
centrist
independent
outside
of
the
two-party
system."
However,
he
did
not
seem
to
be
attracting
much
support,
health
issues
intervened,
and
on
Sept.
6
he
formally
ended
the
effort.
In recent cycles there has also been talk of a unity ticket.
In 2011 the group Americans Elect set a goal of achieving ballot status
in all 50 states; it aimed to "nominate a nonpartisan ticket that puts
country before party, and American interests before special
interests." The effort showed promise but proved to be a fiasco (+).
The contacts and networks built up during the
pre-campaign period provide a starting point for building campaign
organizations. A large pool of talent is available from 2018
mid-term election campaigns. In addition to their national
campaign teams, candidates must also build organizations in key
states. Intense efforts and resources are focused on the four
early states of Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina,
although some candidates' strategies may involve bypassing or
emphasizing one or more of those states.
Central to this building phase is money. Before
the first vote is cast in a caucus or primary, candidates engage in "the
money
primary." They must bring in enough money to hire
talent, open offices, sustain their organizations and spread their
messages. Early money is particularly important, and campaigns
seek to put the best possible spin on their early fundraising
numbers. Under the law, an individual can contribute up to $2,800
to a candidate for federal office for a primary (+),
but
the
campaigns
particularly
prize
small
dollar
donations
as
evidence
of
grassroots
support.
In
his
2016
campaign
Sen.
Bernie
Sanders
made
much
of
his
average
contribution
of
a
bit
more
than
$27
(>).
Most
or
all
of
the
Democratic
candidates
are
eschewing
money
from
PACs
and
federal
lobbyists,
but
some
have
gone
further.
For
example,
many
have
signed
on
to
a
"no
fossil
fuel
money
pledge
(+)."
Vowing
equal
access
for
anyone
who
joins
her
campaign,
Sen.
Elizabeth
Warren
ruled
out
high
dollar
fundraising
events
and
call
time
to
solicit
wealthy
donors
(+),
sort
of
an
anti-Clinton
approach.
The Democratic field largely took shape during the
first quarter of 2019, and the campaigns' Q1 FEC reports, covering Jan.
1-Mar. 30, 2019 and due on April 15, gave an early indication of how
they were faring. Finance reports for the second quarter, due on
July 15 showed Mayor Pete Buttigieg, former Vice President Joe Biden,
Sen. Elizabeth Warren and Sen. Bernie Sanders did well. Sanders,
Warren and Buttigieg also did well in the third quarter 2019. In
addition to considering how much a campaign has raised, it is also
important to look at its "burn rate," or how much it is spending.
The 2020 Democratic candidates by and large discouraged the formation of nominally independent super PACs, which can raise and spend unlimited sums in support of a candidate. The pro-Biden Unite the Country was most active. A couple of pro-Booker super PACs, Dream United and United We Win, formed. The pro-Inslee Act Now on Climate ran some early TV ads, and later the pro-Patrick Reason to Believe PAC was on TV. These scattered efforts stood in contrast to the Republican campaign of 2015-16, when a parallel universe of super PACs supporting the major GOP candidates was very active from early on. [After the New Hampshire primary, two super PACs formed, Kitchen Table Conversations to support Klobuchar and Persist PAC to support Warren].
Besides soliciting donations at events, on-line, via
phone or mail, or by selling merchandise there are other ways that
campaigns can bring in money. Sitting Senators or congressmen can
start with a fundraising advantage for they have the ability to convert
funds from their re-election committees to their presidential campaign
committees. A wealthy candidate can also boost his or her
campaign; in 2007-08 Mitt Romney made $44.7 million in contributions
and loans to his campaign and Hillary Clinton lent $13.2 million to her
campaign. In 2015-16 Donald Trump self financed much of his
primary campaign. In 2019-20 Tom Steyer is spending millions on
his campaign and Michael Bloomberg could spend as much as $1
billion. Ultimately, however, a campaign is probably better
off if it can create enough enthusiasm so that the money flows in.
Finally, although it is almost academic, it should be
noted that there is still a
voluntary system of partial public financing in place (>).
Candidates
qualify
by
raising
$5,000
in
contributions
of
$250
each
of
20
states
and
agreeing to spending limits. Matching funds are made available
starting in January of the presidential campaign year. In 2016
the overall national spending limit was $48.07 million. Major party candidates with any
chance at the nomination now routinely opt out of this system so
as to be able to spend more than the limit. In 2016, only Martin
O'Malley (D) and Jill Stein (G) participated.
To attract money and talent, a candidate must convince
the party activists and donors that he or she can wage a winning
campaign. One of the major underlying themes in the Democratic
primary is whether a progressive or moderate nominee would be the
strongest candidate to take on Trump.
Pundits and media organizations tier-ize the candidates;
these decisions are based on their experience, editorial judgements and
limited resources. As FiveThirtyEight points out, the definition
of who qualifies as a major candidate can be somewhat arbitrary from
news organization to news organization; seeking more clarity
FiveThirtyEight set out ten criteria, stating that a candidate must
meet six of them or the DNC debate criteria (>).
By
Labor
Day,
polling
and
conventional
wisdom
saw
Biden,
Warren
and
Sanders
as
the
frontrunners,
although
Biden
had
an
asterisk
as
there
were
many
stories
pointing
to
gaffes
and
suggesting
his
campaign
might
implode.
Tiers
are
not
fixed;
candidates
can
rise
and
fall
based
on
their
performances.
Leading
candidates
may
fade
and
others
may
rise
when
actual
votes
are
cast.
The
important
point
is
that
top
tier
candidates
receive
ample
coverage,
while
lower
tier
candidates
have to struggle for
attention and inclusion.
Several of the 2020 candidates who might have been
marginalized did achieve major candidate status. Perhaps most
remarkable was the ascent of South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg.
Entrepreneur Andrew Yang's early start and policy focus served him
well; he drew large crowds and made the debates. Author and
spiritual advisor Marianne Williamson's lack of experience in elective
office and abstract New Age rhetoric raised skepticism about her
candidacy, but she has a national reputation, did a lot of preparatory
travel in 2018 and was able to qualify for the first two debates.
By contrast, although Miramar (FL) Mayor Wayne Messam did a well staged
announcement event, he had not put in significant groundwork for a
campaign in advance of his entry into the race and he effectively
disappeared after that.
An attractive or credible candidate and ample resources are starting points for a successful campaign. In a crowded field, candidates need to distinguish themselves and find a "lane" or "track." As the 2016 Republican nominating contest showed, a large field can lead to an unexpected outcome. In June 2015, Donald Trump was seen as a joke, but he ended up vanquishing 16 other candidates. Whether there will be a surprise outcome in 2020 remains to be determined, but one can look at such factors as the favorable media coverage, endorsements, policy proposals, the ground game, performances in candidate forums and debates, and the ad campaign to get a sense of how a campaign is faring.
Favorable Media Coverage
In the early stages of the campaign favorable media coverage is
like gold. Campaigns highlight positive stories and feature
articles (+),
linking
to
them
and
forwarding
them
on
as
they
seek
to
show
growing
support.
Favorable
quotes
are
used
in
lit.
pieces.
In
particular,
South
Bend
(IN)
Mayor
Pete
Buttigieg,
who
started
as
a
unknown
exploratory
candidate,
raised
his
profile
significantly
following
favorable
reviews
of
early
appearances
such
as his March 10
CNN town hall (+).
Endorsements
Endorsements are a key
part of establishing credibility. Sens. Kamala Harris (CA) and
Cory Booker (NJ) did impressive work lining up home state endorsements
early on (+).
Of
all
the
campaigns,
former
Vice
President
Joe
Biden's
was
most
focused
on
lining
up
individual
endorsements.
However,
it
is
not
the
number
of
endorsers,
but
their
prominence,
the
respect
with
which
they
are
viewed
and
their
effectiveness
as
supporters
and
surrogates that matters. An
endorsement from a legislator or local official carries more weight
than that of unknown activist. Some candidates will trickle out
endorsements one or two at a time and others will announce a longer
list. The timing of endorsements is interesting; there are early
endorsers, late endorsers, and alson non-endorsers. Endorsements
from organizations can provide a boost to a campaign. Early
endorsements have included the Progressive Campaign Change Committee
and Working Families Party for Warren, Progressive Democrats of America
and Democratic Socialists of America for Sanders, International
Association of Fire Fighters for Biden, and LGBTQ Victory Fund for
Buttigieg (+).
Policy
Campaigns are about ideas and a candidate can advance his or her
standing introducing serious policy proposals; Sen.
Elizabeth Warren (MA) excelled in this area early on (+).
Candidates
seek
to
differentiate
themselves
from
the
other
candidates
in
the
field;
activists
are
paying
attention
to
the
candidates'
views
on
such
major
issues
as
the
nature
of
capitalism,
Medicare
for
All,
and
the
Green
New
Deal.
Candidate Forums
There are many "cattle shows" where
some or many candidates speak to party, ideological or interest groups
appearing on stage in succession, not at the same time. Three of
the earliest such events were the Heartland Forum, which drew four
candidates to Storm Lake, Iowa on March 30 (+),
the
We
the
People
Membership
Summit
in
Washington,
DC
on
April
1,
where
eight
candidates
are
spoke
(+),
and
Rev.
Al
Sharpton's
NAN
Convention
in
New
York
City
on
April
3-6,
where
about
a
dozen
candidates
spoke
(+).
In
the
months
since
then
there
were
as
many
as
ten
or
eleven
of
these
multi-candidate
events
per
month.
Forums
provide
a
good
opportunity
to
compare
the
candidates
in
a
less
controlled
setting
than
the
televised
debates.
At
the
party
events
candidates
deliver
versions
of
their
stump speeches while in the interest group forums
they delve into specific issues in interviews and questions from
members of the group.
Debates
Televised debates are tightly controlled events. With short
speaking times and many candidates, they are not the best way for
citizens to learn about the candidates' positions, but one can see how
the candidates perform under pressure and try to stand out. The
debates do have relatively large audiences and are important benchmarks
in the months leading up to the first contests. Campaigns, local
Democratic and other activist groups organize debate watch parties
around these much anticipated events. On Dec. 20, 2018 the DNC
announced a framework for 2020 presidential primary debates that envisages 12
debates, six in 2019 and six in 2020 (+).
Participation
in
the
first
seven
debates
was
based
on
the
candidates'
ability
to
meet
polling
and
grassroots
contribution
thresholds
which
were
announced
as
2019
has
progressed.
The
first
two
debates
were
held
over
two
consecutive
nights
because
of
the
large
field
of candidates.
As criteria were tightened, a number of candidates bowed out after
failing to meet them. Critics
and
excluded
candidates
have
pointed
to
a
lack
of
transparency
in
how
the
DNC
came
up
with
their
rules,
and
questioned
a
system
wherein
a
wealthy
candidate
such
as
Tom
Steyer
can
effectively
buy
his
way
onto
the
stage,
but
others
with
years
of
public
service
like Sen. Michael
Bennet or Gov. Steve Bullock are excluded.
Ground Game
While the campaigns' national organizations set the direction, the
state organizations are where "the rubber meets the road." In
early states, field organizers build off of candidate apperances,
following up with potential supporters and interacting with activists
and local party leaders. To better mobilize supporters, campaigns
open state
headquarters and field offices in these early states.
State campaign staff work to line up support from activists as well as
endorsements from local party leaders, elected officials and other
influencers. Potential voters in early states are bombarded by
calls and text messages as the campaigns seek to engage them.
Ad Campaigns
The ad campaigns began to
gear up in summer 2019. Earlier, in 2018, the Delaney campaign
made a significant investment in TV advertising in Iowa and there were
a number of smaller tactical buys in the first part of 2019, but
investor Tom Steyer really kicked it off.
Past Primary Ad Campaigns:
Campaign Committees: 2016 | 2012
|
2008 R, D | 2004 | 2000.
Super PACs and Interest groups:
2016
| 2012
|
2008
| 2004
|
2000.
Actually Getting on the Ballot
By Fall 2019 media and public attention turn more and more to the four
early states where a lucky few voters will finally have a say.
While a successful campaign will have focused most of its attention on
these early states, it will not have ignored other states.
Several of the more resourced campaigns have been building out their
organizations in Super Tuesday states, notably Bloomberg, Warren and
Sanders. By early Jan. 2020 Bloomberg, who is skipping the four
early state scrums altogether, built up a massive organization of 500
staff out in the states. Warren has organization in most of the
Super Tuesday states. Sanders has particularly focused on
California. At the other end of the spectrum are smaller, less
resourced campaigns whose very survival depends upon a good showing in
one or more of the early states.
Even small campaigns must lay the groundwork for
qualifying for primary ballots around the country in the event their
candidate does well. Each state has
its own rules—some are tortuous, others expensive and others, like New
Hampshire, are relatively straightforward. In November and
December, filing deadlines
start coming up in individual states. For example, New Hampshire
statutes state, "Declarations of candidacy shall be filed between the
first Monday in November and the third Friday in November, or during
such other time period as the secretary of state shall announce."
In delegate-rich California, which has moved its primary forward to
March 3 (1,
2),
the
period
for
declarations
of
candidacy
and
nomination
papers
runs
to
Dec.
6,
2019
and
the
Secretary
of
State
will
certify
the
list
of
candidates
on
Dec.
26.
Beyond
simply
meeting
deadlines,
campaigns
must
work
to
line
up
full
delegate
slates,
or
they
may
run
into
problems
later on.
While the battle to determine who will challenge Trump draws the
headlines, in the background the national Democratic party (+) and its allies (1, 2) are working to ensure
that the eventual nominee will have the tools and resources to succeed
in the general election.
Exit Stage Left (Out Before the
First Votes are Cast)
For some candidates, the months of planning and preparation, hard work and handshaking are not enough to make it to the starting line, let alone secure the party's nomination. Reality sets in, and it becomes impossible to continue without going into debt.
Exiting
the
Race:
DEMOCRATIC |
|
Richard Ojeda (WV)
|
Jan.
25,
2019 |
U.S. Rep. Eric Swalwell (CA) |
July 8, 2019 |
Former Gov. John Hickenlooper
(CO) |
Aug.
15,
2019 |
Gov. Jay Inslee (WA) |
Aug.
21,
2019 |
U.S. Rep. Seth Moulton (MA) |
Aug.
23,
2019 > BIDEN
Jan. 27 + |
U.S. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (NY) |
Aug.
28,
2019 |
NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio |
Sept. 20, 2019 > SANDERS Feb. 14 + |
U.S. Rep. Tim Ryan (OH) |
Oct. 24, 2019 > BIDEN Nov. 13 + |
Former U.S. Rep. Beto O'Rourke
(TX) |
Nov. 1, 2019 > BIDEN Mar. 2 + |
Miramar Mayor Wayne Messam |
Nov. 20, 2019 |
Former U.S. Rep. and Adm. Joe
Sestak (PA) |
Dec. 1, 2019 > KLOBUCHAR Feb. 7 + |
Gov. Steve Bullock (MT) |
Dec.
2,
2019 |
U.S. Sen. Kamala Harris (CA) |
Dec.
3,
2019 > BIDEN Mar. 8
+ |
Former Secretary and Mayor
Julián
Castro (TX) |
Jan.
2,
2020 > WARREN
Jan. 6 + |
Marianne Williamson |
Jan. 10, 2020 > SANDERS Feb. 23 + > |
U.S. Sen. Cory Booker (NJ) |
Jan.
13,
2020 > BIDEN Mar. 9
+ |
Former U.S. Rep. John Delaney
(MD) |
Jan. 31, 2020 > BIDEN Mar. 3 + |
REPUBLICAN | |
Former U.S. Rep. and Gov. Mark
Sanford (SC) |
Nov.
12,
2019 |
Most often a candidate just issues a statement or video upon leaving
the race, offering thanks to supporters, initial insights into what the
candidate feels he or she accomplished, and thoughts on future
activity. Sometimes an exiting candidate will hold an press
conference to announce the end of his or her quest; and on rare
occasions he may hold an event with family, staff and
supporters. The candidate may also take this
opportunity to throw his or her support to one of the remaining
contenders, but most often that will come later. Meanwhile
reporters offer their assessments on why the candidate failed to gain
more support, and campaign staff wind up operations and look for new
positions.
President Trump's team methodically built
its organization during the pre-primary period. With few
exceptions, Republicans remain the
party of Trump. He is firmly in control of the Republican
National Committee; Trump Victory, the merged field/fundraising
operation of the RNC and the
Trump campaign, began ramping up in March 2019. Trump also has
allies leading many state parties. Although three long-shot
challengers—former Gov. Bill Weld, former U.S. Rep. Joe Walsh, and
former Rep. and Gov. Mark Sanfor—emerged, they faced obstacles
such as cancelled primary contests and
unhelpful
state
and
local
parties (1,
2).
The launch of the impeachment inquiry on Sept. 24,
2019 added an element of drama to an already chaotic period.
The impeachment trial in the Senate started as the Iowa caucus
campaign enters the home stretch. Trump and his allies argued
that
Democrats were trying to overturn the
2016 election. Trump continued to hold MAGA rallies and his
campaign continued its activities as per normal. The Wesleyan
Media Project reported, "Since October
1, Trump has spent just under $5 million on ads that have both attacked
Joe Biden for alleged corruption and attacked Democrats for launching
an impeachment investigation against him." As of the eve of the
Iowa caucuse it
appeared
all but certain that Trump will be the Republican nominee, although one
could still envisage
an scenario where the Trump narrative implodes and a Nikki Haley or
someone else ends
up on the stage in Charlotte on the night of Aug. 27, 2020
accepting the party's nomination.
During the year Trump has also made
appearances at a number of high profile events which are important to
energizing the GOP base, including the American Conservative Union's
Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) on Feb. 27-Mar. 2,
2019, the Faith & Freedom Coalition's Road to Majority on June
27-29, 2019 (>)
and the Family Research Council's Values Voter Summit on Oct. 11-13,
2019 (>).
Resources
2016
| 2012
| 2008
|
2004 | 2000
Articles
Brianne Pfannenstiel. "2020
Iowa
caucuses:
50
most
wanted
Democrats." Des
Moines
Register, Dec. 2018.
Jamie Lovegrove. "South
Carolina's
most
valuable
Democrats
for
2020
presidential
primary."
Post and Courier, Jan. 28,
2019.
Nate Silver. "Here's
How
We're
Defining
A
'Major'
Presidential
Candidate."
FiveThirtyEight, Mar. 26, 2019.