"Granite Staters are tough but fair with those who would be President. Toward the end of the race, when the temperature gets colder and the campaigning gets hotter, it takes dedication to survive. Here is democracy at its best, for it takes more than a big bankroll or name recognition to impress us." --Nackey Loeb
First-in-the-Nation
State
of New Hampshire Revised Statutes, TITLE
LXIII, Chapter 653 +
653:9 Presidential Primary Election. – The presidential primary election shall be held on the second Tuesday in March or on a Tuesday selected by the secretary of state which is 7 days or more immediately preceding the date on which any other state shall hold a similar election, whichever is earlier, of each year when a president of the United States is to be elected or the year previous... |
The premise and the promise of New Hampshire's first in
the nation primary is that it allows even little-known,
underfunded candidates to have a chance at winning the
White House. By engaging in grassroots politics,
visiting ordinary citizens in their living rooms and
meeting them in diners, a candidate can gain favorable
notice, attract support of activists, do well in the
primary, and thereby gain momentum going into the rest of
the nominating process. Long-serving Secretary of
State Bill Gardner points out that not only do New
Hampshire citizens have great opportunities to learn about
the candidates, but the candidates themselves learn a lot
by going through the process (+).
Critics
argue
that
New
Hampshire
is
not
representative
and
should
not
be
granted
a
privileged
position,
but
the
state
has repeatedly fended off challenges to its
first-in-the-nation status.
New Hampshire has a strong grassroots democratic
tradition. The General Court, New Hampshire's
"citizen legislature," consists of the 400-member House
and 24-member Senate. The House is the largest state
legislative body in the United States. (Legislators
receive a salary of $200 per biennium). Many
citizens also serve in local government or at least have
the experience of participating in the local town hall
meetings.
Each cycle there are a few candidates who choose to focus on the New Hampshire primary over the Iowa caucuses, viewing it as providing a "level playing field" which does not require as much resources as Iowa and the caucus system. Additionally, because it is relatively easy to get on the New Hampshire presidential primary ballot, many lesser known or fringe candidates run, adding color to the spectacle.
The modern New Hampshire primary dates to 1952.
Over the decades, the New Hampshire primary has produced
many memorable scenes, and each succeeding primary
reinforces the proud tradition. The primary and all
the comings and goings also provide a tremendous economic
boost to the state.
In the year leading up to the February 3
primary, twenty-three declared major Democratic
presidential candidates established a presence in New
Hampshire, but as the months progressed the field
narrowed, and by the time it came to filing delegate
slates only 11 remained. The Democratic race
appeared to be an open and fluid contest throughout 2019
and into 2020. Several candidates started out
with a bit of an advantage. Sen. Bernie Sanders
(I-VT), from neighboring Vermont, built a winning campaign
for the 2015-16 primary. Sen. Elizabeth Warren, from
neighboring Massachusetts, was also expected do well from
the outset. On the Republican side, President Trump
was the prohibitive favorite to win the primary; his
strongest challenger, former Gov. Bill Weld, gained little
traction.
Early Groundwork
(Pre-Campaign Period, 2017-18)
Early entrants Congressman John Delaney and
entrepreneur Andrew Yang were the first declared candidates
to trek to New Hampshire, but many other potential
candidates made the trip in 2017-18. (In 2013-14, by
contrast, the large pool of Republican prospects led to much
activity on the Republican side). In addition to
helping local party committees and candidates, potential
candidates use these visits to connect with activists and
potential supporters.
New Hampshire is fairly evenly split
politically (registration for Nov. 6, 2018 was 307,354
Republicans, 284,172 Democrats, 415,908 Undeclared and 1,548
Libertarian for a total of 1,008,982). A total of
580,214 votes were counted in the Nov. 6, 2018 general
election. (By comparison, four years earlier, a total
of 495,453 votes were counted). Although Gov. Chris
Sununu (R) won a second term, New Hampshire Democrats
achieved much success in the 2018 midterms, touting
"historic 'firsts' and record-breaking performances up and
down the ticket (+)."
• Gov. Sununu defeated former state Sen. Molly Kelly (D)
by 52.8% to 45.7% to win a second term (+).
Democrats also won a majority on the Executive Council.
• Democrats kept both U.S. House seats. The 1st CD,
which includes Manchester, was open due to U.S. Rep. Carol
Shea-Porter (D)'s retirement. Chris Pappas (D)
defeated Eddie Edwards (R) by 53.56% to 45.01%. In
the 2nd CD, which includes Nashua, Concord and the whole
western and northern part of the state, U.S. Rep. Ann
McLane Kuster (D) won re-election, defeating Steve Negron
(R) by 55.54% to 42.18%.
• In the state Senate all 24 seats were up.
Democrats flipped the chamber, taking the balance from 14R, 10D to 14D, 10R (>).
• In the House of Representatives all 400 seats were
up. Democrats flipped the chamber, taking the
balance from 212R,
167D, 2L and 19v to 233D, 167R (>).
Potential presidential candidates helped out in these races
as well as with party events. In 2019 there were
elections for mayor in cities around the state; although
these were nonpartisan and generally did not intersect with
the presidential primary, in Manchester incumbent Joyce
Craig, a Democrat, defeated Victoria Sullivan, a Republican.
New Hampshire's first status is enshrined in state law, and long-serving New Hampshire Secretary of State Bill Gardner has demonstrated time and again he will not budge when it comes to protecting the first status, including the seven-day cushion. He holds off on making an announcement of the primary date until he is confident that its position will not be usurped. While DNC rules specify Feb. 11, 2020 as the earliest date of the New Hampshire primary, Gardner has acted several times in past to move the primary date forward. In the 2012 cycle he even threatened to hold the primary in December 2011. In 2016 the national party committees showed a determination to hold the line, no states threatened New Hampshire's position, and the scheduled date held. Gardner attracted little notice on Dec. 17, 2015 when he made the Feb. 9, 2016 date official. This cycle the national committees again held the line, but Gardner kept an eye on whether absentee and early voting in California's March 3 primary (which begins 29 days prior) might impinge upon New Hampshire's first-in-the-nation status and a move in New York. On Nov. 25 he made the Feb. 11, 2020 date official.
Date of Pres. Primary |
Date
Primary Date Announced |
Dates
of Filing Period |
Feb. 11, 2020 | Nov. 25, 2019 |
Oct. 30-Nov. 15, 2019 |
Feb. 9, 2016 |
Dec. 17, 2015 |
Nov. 4-Nov. 20, 2015 |
Jan. 10, 2012 (Feb. 14) | Nov. 2, 2011 (+) |
Oct. 17-Oct. 28, 2011 |
Jan. 8, 2008 (Jan. 22) | Nov. 21, 2007 (+) |
Oct. 15-Nov. 2, 2007 |
Jan. 27, 2004 | Oct. 14, 2003 |
Nov. 3-Nov. 21, 2003 |
Feb. 1, 2000 | Sept. 28, 1999 (+) |
Nov. 1-Nov. 19, 1999 |
Through 1968 the primary had been held on the second Tuesday
of March, coinciding with town meeting day.
The rules for selecting the 33 delegates and
2 alternates who will travel to Milwaukee for the Democratic
National Convention are set out in the NHDP's delegate
selection plan (+).
A Robust Media
Environment twitter
Presidential hopefuls encounter a media
environment that has local journalists and embeds from the
national press. Among the locals are:
John DiStaso joined WMUR-TV's politics team
effective April 6, 2015 after a year at New Hampshire Journal
and 34 years at the Union
Leader where he wrote the "Granite Status"
column. Another key player on WMUR-TV's team is
political director Adam Sexton.
Veteran reporter Kevin Landrigan now writes
"Granite Status" for the Union
Leader; he previously worked at Binnie Media's NH1
News and was for many years the statehouse reporter for the
Nashua Telegraph.
James Pindell has been with the Boston Globe since Jan.
2015 after more than four years at WMUR-TV.
Paul Steinhauser writes for the Concord Monitor and
Seacoastonline (the Portsmouth
Herald and Fosters
Daily Democrat). He worked as political
director and reporter for NH1 starting in 2014 after many
years at CNN in Washington, DC.
Also covering politics at the Concord Monitor is Ethan DeWitt.
Josh Rogers is senior political reporter and editor at NHPR; he started at the station in 2000 after working for several magazines in New York.
In rather a shock, in Dec. 2016 AP laid off
photographer Jim Cole; he had started with the organization
in 1980 and was a familiar face on the campaign trail.
Photogs from Boston have been filling his role.
Reporting on the New Hampshire campaign for AP is Hunter
Woodall, who started in that role in early 2019,
supplementing the work of Holly
Ramer.
With 10 counties and a population of 1.3
million, New Hampshire is a bit easier to travel around in
than Iowa, although getting up to Coos County in the far
north requires a bit of a trek. As in Iowa, candidates
must put in time speaking to groups in living rooms and
small businesses around the state. Their campaigns
work to build a team of committed county chairs and precinct
captains and obtain endorsements from state and local
officials. Campaign headquarters open in Manchester or
Concord. During the summer the candidates step up
their visits and staff continue working to identify
supporters and this activity continues into the fall as the
leaves turn.
The filing period in November is one of the
highlights of the fall campaign. Most of the major
candidates and many of the minor candidates make the visit
to the Secretary of State's office at the State House in
Concord to file in person. It can be quite a scene;
major candidates may march to the Capitol with a crowd of
supporters and have supporters lining the hallway.
Surrounded by reporters, they sit at a historic desk,
present their $1,000 checks, and put their name to
paper. Lesser known candidates do not attract as much
notice but are treated respectfully. Some candidates
miss the fun and mail in their filing fee. The New
Hampshire presidential primary attracts a lot of
candidates. The record was in 1992. For both
2012 (+)
and 2008 (+)
a total of 44 candidates filed to appear on the ballot, for
2016 58 candidates qualified (30 Republicans and 28
Democrats) (+).
For
the 2020 NH primary, 50 candidates filed to compete (17
Republicans and 33 Democrats) [PDF].
Compared to the other early states, New Hampshire saw relatively few multi-candidate events and some of these drew only a handful of candidates. The biggest events were the NHDP State Convention in Sept. 2019 and the NHDP 100 Club Dinner right before the primary. In addition eight candidates participated in the debate at St. Anslem College on Feb. 7.
Sept. 7, 2019 (Manchester) - New Hampshire Democratic Party State
Convention.
Oct. 13, 2019 (Durham) - The
People's Forum.cancelled
Nov. 3, 2019 (Manchester) - No Labels Problem Solver Convention.
Dec. 16, 2019 (Manchester) - Unite for Mental
Health: New Hampshire Town Hall.
Jan. 6-9, 2020 (Manchester) - College Convention
2020.
Feb. 5, 2020 (Concord) - NH Youth Climate
and Clean Energy Town Hall.
Feb. 6, 2020 (Durham) - College Costs &
Debt in the 2020 Elections.
Feb. 8, 2020 (Concord) - Our Rights, Our
Courts New Hampshire Presidential Forum.
Feb. 8, 2020 (Manchester) - NHDP 61st Annual
McIntyre-Shaheen 100 Club Dinner.
In terms of campaign organization, of the 11
Democratic campaigns that were active to primary day,
Sanders,d Warren, Buttigieg and Biden had very large
teams. All four of these campaigns opened ten or more
offices around the state. While most of the candidates
were devoting significant attention to Iowa, Bennet, Patrick
and Gabbard largely focused their efforts in the closing
months on New Hampshire. TV viewers in New Hampshire
saw a different ad mix than in Iowa. With so many
elected officials there were plenty of opportunities for
endorsements, but these did not prove to be a good indicator
of candidate strength. Warren, who had the most
endorsements by House members finished fourth and Biden, who
had the second most, finished fifth. New Hampshire was
the only state to see a semblance of a Republican primary
contest as former Gov. William Weld and longshot Matt Matern
invested considerable time and money here.
As the campaign draws to a close activity
intensifies. Citizens receive numerous calls from
campaigns trying to identify and mobilize supporters, their
mailboxes are flooded with campaign mailers, and TV ads fill
the airwaves. After the Caucus Night celebrations in
Iowa, most of the remaining candidates head immediately to
New Hampshire for a final week of campaigning. Elm
Street in Manchester becomes a bit of a zoo, crowded with
supporters of the candidates, representatives of various
interest groups trying to get their messages out, media and
political tourists; at the center of it all is the Radisson
Hotel.
Independents Form an Important Voting Bloc
Undeclared voters can vote in either party's
primary. The procedure is simple. Upon entering
the polling place, a voter declares for one of the parties
and votes on that party's ballot; after voting he or she can
return to the undeclared status. As noted above,
undeclared or independent voters form a significant voting
group.
Beginning with the counting of the votes in
tiny Dixville Notch and Hart's Location, results trickle in
on primary night. Supporters of the various candidates
gather, usually in the Manchester area, to watch and see who
will be able to claim the boost coming out of New
Hampshire.
Republicans
In the last seven New Hampshire Republican primaries, six
were competitive. The first-place finisher has gone on
to win the nomination four times (Donald Trump in 2016,
former Gov. Mitt Romney in 2012, Sen. John McCain in 2008,
and President George H.W. Bush fending off Pat Buchanan in
1992). The second-place finisher ended up winning the
nomination twice (Gov. George W. Bush in 2000, after
finishing second to McCain, and Sen. Bob Dole in 1996 after
finishing second to Buchanan). Trump's resounding win
in New Hampshire after a second place finish in Iowa really
set him on the path to the nomination. In 2020
President Trump had the party machinery behind him and the
race was not competitive.
Feb. 11, 2020 | Trump 129,744 (85.4%), Weld 13,844
(9.0%)... |
153,711 |
Feb.
9,
2016 |
Trump 100,639 (35.6%), Kasich 44,878 (15.9%), Cruz 33,214 (11.7%)... | 282,804 |
Jan. 10, 2012 | Romney 97,591 (39.2%), Paul 56,872 (22.9%), Huntsman 41,964 (16.9%)... | 248,475 |
Jan.
8, 2008 |
McCain
88,713 (37.0%), Romney 75,675
(31.6%), Huckabee 26,916 (11.2%)... |
239,758 |
Jan.
27, 2004 |
Bush 53,962 (79.8%), Others 13,662 (20.2%). | 67,624 |
Feb.
1, 2000 |
McCain 115,606 (48.5%), Bush 72,330 (30.3%), Forbes 30,166 (12.6%)... | 238,606 |
Feb.
20, 1996 |
Buchanan 56,874 (27.3%), Dole
54,738 (26.2%), Alexander 47,148 (22.6%)... |
208,740 |
Feb.
18, 1992 |
Bush 92,271 (53.2%), Buchanan
65,106 (37.6%), Others 16,037 (9.2%). |
173,414 |
Democrats
In the last seven New Hampshire Democratic primaries, going
back to 1992, four were competitive. In 1992, Gov.
Bill Clinton finished second to Sen. Paul Tsongas but
declared himself the "comeback kid" and went on to win the
nomination. In 2000 Vice President Gore won the
primary over former Sen. Bill Bradley and went on to win the
nomination. In 2008, Sen. Hillary Clinton bounced back
from Iowa, but it was the second place finisher Sen. Barack
Obama who went on to win the nomination. In 2016, Sen.
Bernie Sanders achieved a convincing win over former Sec. of
State Hillary Clinton, but she went on to win the
nomination. One can see that in three of the four
competitive races the second place finisher ultimately won
the nomination. For 2020 it was the fifth place
finisher, former Vice President Joe Biden, who went on to
become the presumptive nominee.
Feb. 11, 2020 | Sanders 76,384 (25.6%), Buttigieg
72,454 (24.3%), Klobuchar 58,714 (19.7%)... |
298,377 |
Feb. 9, 2016 | Sanders
151,954 (61.0%), Clinton 95,226 (38.2%). |
249,215 |
Jan. 10, 2012 | Obama 49,080 (82.0%), Others 10,792 (18.0%). | 59,872 |
Jan.
8, 2008 |
Clinton
112,404 (39.1%), Obama 104,815
(36.5%), Edwards 48,699 (16.9%)... |
287,557 |
Jan.
27, 2004 |
Kerry 84,377 (38.4%), Dean 57,761 (26.3%), Clark 27,314 (12.4%)... | 219,787 |
Feb.
1, 2000 |
Gore 76,897 (49.7%), Bradley 70,502 (45.6%), Others 7,238 (4.7%). | 154,637 |
Feb.
20, 1996 |
Clinton 76,797 (84.4%), Others
14,230 (15.6%). |
91,027 |
Feb.
18, 1992 |
Tsongas 55,663 (33.2%), Clinton 41,540
(24.8%), Kerrey 18,584 (11.1%)... |
167,664 |
Note: DNC
and RNC rules have different language covering
the timing of the early primaries.
DNC rules specify specific dates for
the four early states, while RNC rules have
a general carve-out period that covers the four early
states.
However, state law, cited above,
trumps the rules. If other states move up their primary
dates and encroach on the window, Secretary of State Bill
Gardner will move its date forward.
DNC Rule 11 - "...Provided, however,
that the Iowa precinct caucuses may be held no earlier
than 29 days before the first Tuesday in March; that the
New Hampshire primary may be held no earlier than 21 days
before the first Tuesday in March; that the Nevada
first-tier caucuses may be held no earlier than 10 days
before the first Tuesday in March; and that the South
Carolina primary may be held no earlier than 3 days before
the first Tuesday in March..."
RNC Rule 16 (4) (c) (1) - "No primary, caucus, convention, or other process to elect, select, allocate, or bind delegates to the national convention shall occur prior to March 1 or after the second Saturday in June in the year in which a national convention is held. Except Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada may conduct their processes no earlier than one month before the next earliest state in the year in which a national convention is held and shall not be subject to the provisions of paragraph (c)(2) of this rule."
Resources
2016
|
2012
| 2008
|
2004
|
2000
Scott Conroy. April 18,
2017. VOTE
FIRST OR DIE: The New Hampshire Primary: America's
Discerning, Magnificent, and Absurd Road to the White
House. New York: Public
Affairs.
"For a year and a half leading up to Primary Day,
Scott Conroy followed the often absurd 2016 campaign
up and down New Hampshire. Along the way, he got up
close and personal with the candidates themselves,
while absorbing local insights and entertaining
anecdotes from the peppery state officials and wily
operatives who have determined national political
fates for generations..." Conroy "is coauthor of
Sarah from Alaska
and created and directed New Hampshire—a seven-part
Huffington Post original documentary series about life
on the 2016 trail in the first-in-the nation primary
state. He was national political report for the
Huffington Post and RealClearPolitics and a campaign
embed reporter for CBS News."
Fergus Cullen. Nov. 1, 2015. GRANITE STEPS: Stumbles, Surprises, and Successes on the New Hampshire Primary Trail. Union Leader Corporation. (working title was "Carved by Granite: The First-in-the-Nation New Hampshire Presidential Primary, 1992-2012.") >
David W. Moore and Andrew E. Smith. Fall
2015. THE
FIRST PRIMARY: New Hampshire's Outsize Role in
Presidential Nominations. Lebanon, NH: University
of New Hampshire Press.
In The First
Primary, Moore and Smith offer a
comprehensive history of the state’s primary, an
analysis of its media coverage and impact, and a
description of the New Hampshire electorate, along
with a discussion of how that electorate reflects or
diverges from national opinions on candidates and
issues. (working
title was "Out of the Gate: The New Hampshire Primary
in the Political Process)
Meryl Levin and Will Kanteres.
June 2004. PRIMARILY NEW HAMPSHIRE. Third
Rail Press, Inc.
"...celebrates the
young politicos who dedicated a year of their lives to
working on the Presidential Primary in New Hampshire
during the 2004 campaign season."
Dante Scala. Dec. 2003. STORMY WEATHER:
The New Hampshire Primary and Presidential Politics.
New York: Palgrave
MacMillan.
"Scala explains the
importance and peculiarities of New Hampshire,
providing both historical context and insights, based
on extensive interviews, into the tensions between
local politics and the national agendas of candidates.
New Hampshire's sympathy for reformist candidates has
the paradoxical effect of jumpstarting the campaigns
of those candidates least representative of voters
nationally, and Scala explores the tremendous
implications for presidential politics. Scala explains
what it takes for candidates to make the Granite State
a launching pad rather than a crash landing."
ON VIDEO
Forum. Mar. 12, 2018. "1968 New
Hampshire Presidential Primary 50 Years Later."
Kevin
Rowe. April 2017. "Democracy Through
the Looking Glass: Politics and Media in the Post Truth
Era."
David Boeri. Jan. 10,
2012. "60 Years
of the Modern N.H. Primary." WBUR
News.
American
University
School of Communication. "2008 New Hampshire
Primary Short Documentaries."
Will Rabbe, Aram Fischer and Mark Lynch. "Winning
New Hampshire: A Portrait of the 2004 Democratic
Primary.
Ashford
Films.
"The film captures
the essence of the New Hampshire Primary, what it
takes to win, the effects of the media and the new
political youth movement. With a focus on the John
Kerry Campaign, the winner of both the New Hampshire
Primary and the Democratic Nomination, Winning
New Hampshire provides an
experience of this extraordinary political event and
presents a distinctly new perspective of the
Presidential selection process."