After the relatively focused early contests, the surviving candidates enter a dizzying array of primaries. They must decide where to concentrate their efforts and resources as they jump around the country trying to hit key media markets and win enough delegates to gain the party nomination.
Overview of the Primary Process
To secure their respective parties'
nominations, candidates compete in a series of state
primaries and caucus/convention processes that select
delegates to the national conventions. The calendar of
primaries and caucuses has been and continues to be based on
the premise that several early retail contests serve to
winnow the field in advance of the great mass of primaries
and contests. The theory is that the early retail
contests allow even a candidate with modest funds to compete
against better funded and more well known contenders.
The four early "carve out" or "pre-window" states are Iowa,
New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina. The Iowa
caucuses and New Hampshire primary have fairly lengthy
traditions, South Carolina is first in the South, and Nevada
is a relatively new early state, providing for demographic
and geographic balance.
Democratic and Republican [PDF]
processes unfolded from February to June 2020. Rules
governing primaries and caucuses and their timing are set
out in national party rules and state laws. Caucuses
are multi-step, party run processes that generally start at
the precinct level and work up through county and district
levels to a state convention. Caucuses generally have
very limited participation because of the time commitment
involved, and have fallen out of favor. Several states
switched from a caucus to a primary system for 2020,
including Colorado, Minnesota and Washington. Presidential
preference primary elections are usually run by the
state, meaning state laws apply (there are party-run
primaries, but they are rare because it is expensive).
Some states hold their presidential preference primaries on
different dates than the regular state primaries while in
others both the presidential primary and the state primary
occur on the same date. (An early, stand-alone
presidential primary can generate more presidential campaign
activity, but consolidating presidential and statewide
primaries on the same day saves money). Some states
allow unaffiliated voters to participate in party primaries
(these are open primaries) and some do not (closed
primaries). Dates of Democratic and Republican
contests generally but do not always coincide. The two
parties have different rules governing their
processes. Democratic delegates are allocated
proportionally, whereas Republican rules allow for
winner-take-all contests.
Most attention focused on the Democratic nominating contest, where the large number of candidates made for an uncertain outcome. On the Republican side, President Trump had firm control of the national party infrastructure [PDF], strong backers at the helm of many state parties, scant opposition, and a solid campaign organization and delegate operation (+). Although he was seen as all but certain to claim the nomination, the primaries and delegate selection went on according to party rules as interpreted by the RNC leadership [PDF].
March 3, 2020 was the first day for states besides the early four to hold their contests. This was Super Tuesday, and for Democrats, the March 3 contests accounted for almost of one-third of total pledged delegates. Most notably, California moved its presidential primary forward to March 3, and its vote by mail period began on February 3 (>); some campaigns treated California as a fifth early state.
When one looks at the primary season as a whole, for the
candidate and his or her campaign, there is always another
contest a few days or a week or two away. Working with
limited resources, campaigns sometimes have to cobble
together a state organization in just a few weeks, and then
it is on to the next contest. The leading candidate or
candidates may be up one week and down the next.
After each presidential election the parties review and make adjustments to their rules in hopes of setting a process for selecting a nominee in the strongest position to win the general election. General objectives include a process that is not overly long or divisive, allows for fair competition, and encourages participation by voters and activist to build the party.
Following
their contentious 2016 primary race, Democrats established a
Unity Reform Commission to "recommend improvements to insure
the presidential nomination process is accessible,
transparent, and inclusive." The 21-person Commission
held five meetings between May and Dec. 2017, and the full
DNC approved "historic
changes" to its nominating process at
its summer meeting in Aug. 2018. Most notably
superdelegates—unpledged elected officials, party leaders
and DNC members—who accounted for 15.0 percent of the
delegates in 2016 and 16.9 percent in 2020, will not have a
vote on the first presidential nominating ballot at the
convention (unless the outcome is settled). This gives
grassroots Democrats a greater say in the selection of the
nominee. Other changes encourage state parties to
select delegates through primaries rather than caucuses and
to ensure that caucuses, when held, are accessible.
There
is
always
the
possibility
that
rules
changes
can
have
unforeseen
consequences.
For
example,
in
2008
Democrats
had
concerns
about
the
divisive
primary
between
Obama
and
Clinton,
but
one
could
argue
that
the
long
primary
battle
ultimately
helped
Obama
by
getting
issues
such
as
the
controversy
over
Rev.
Wright
aired,
and
by
allowing
him
to
build
the
strong
field
organization
and
finance
capabilities
he
took
into
the
general
election.
Following
the
2008
campaign,
Democrats
established
a
Change
Commission
which
led
to
rules
changes
increasing
the
number
of
pledged
delegates
by
about
700
in
order
to
dilute the impact of the superdelegates from 20 percent to
15 percent. In advance of the 2016 campaign, Democrats
reduced the number of base delegates from 3,700 to
3,200 in order to give the party a bit more flexibility in
selecting a host city for its convention.
Republicans too have adjusted their rules
over the years. At their 2014 winter meeting Republicans
adopted what were termed "historic"
rules changes, designed to counter shortcomings in
the 2012 process. These weaknesses included
six months of candidates "slicing and dicing" each other in
myriad debates, states disregarding penalties, and the
several-month period between the time when the nominee was
determined and when he could start spending on the general
election campaign.
Setting the 2020 Calendar
Party rules set windows for delegate selection contests, but
individual state legislatures, secretaries of state and
state parties determine the specifics dates and processes.
No
primary, caucus, convention, or other process to
elect, select, allocate, or bind delegates to
the national convention shall occur prior to
March 1 or after the second Saturday in June in
the year in which a national convention is held.
Except Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and
Nevada may conduct their processes no earlier
than one month before
the next earliest state in the year in which a national convention is held and shall not be subject to the provisions of paragraph (c)(2) of this rule. |
No
meetings, caucuses, conventions or primaries
which constitute the first determining stage in
the presidential nomination process (the date of
the primary in primary states, and the date of
the first tier caucus in caucus states) may be
held prior to the first Tuesday in March or
after the second Tuesday in June in the calendar
year of the national convention. Provided,
however, that the Iowa precinct caucuses may be
held no earlier than 29 days before the first
Tuesday in March; that the New Hampshire primary
may be held no earlier than 21 days before the
first Tuesday in March; that the Nevada
first-tier caucuses may be held no earlier than
10 days before the first Tuesday in March; and
that the South Carolina primary may be held no
earlier than 3 days before the first Tuesday in
March.
|
An endemic problem in the primary calendar is frontloading,
wherein state party officials or legislators seek to go
earlier in the process so their state will have more
influence. In past election cycles there were a few
rogue states willing to violate the rules and risk penalties
in order to go early. In turn this caused the early
states to move their dates even earlier. The national
party committees have sought to discourage this behavior by
various incentives and penalties. In 2012 the RNC
imposed penalties on the Florida delegation that seem to
have discouraged this activity. DNC rules impose
penalties for violating the timing provisions: “...the
number of pledged delegates elected in each category
allocated to the state pursuant to the Call for the National
Convention shall be reduced by fifty (50%) percent, and the
number of alternates shall also be reduced by fifty (50%)
percent." (Rule 21(C)(1.a.) - Challenges)
Democrats also tried an incentive scheme,
providing for bonus delegates for states willing to go later
in the process but that did not seem to have much
effect. States holding contests in April received a
10% bonus in the number of delegates, and states going in
May and June received a 20% bonus. Additionally there
was an incentive to encourage regional clustering; three or
more states holding contests on or after March 16, 2016
received a 15% bonus. Republican rules have a less
explicit incentive in that delegates from early state
contests are allocated proportionally rather than
winner-take-all. (Rule 16(c)(2) contests "prior to
March 15 in the year in which the national convention is
held shall provide for the allocation of delegates on a
proportional basis.")
A potential wild card in the 2020 calendar
was New Hampshire Secretary of State Bill Gardner.
Gardner always waits until he is absolutely certain his
state's first status will not be infringed upon before
finalizing the primary date, and he assessed the impact of
California's move forward and the Feb. 3 start to early
voting there. In the 2012 cycle, for example, not
until Nov. 2, 2011 did Gardner announce Jan. 10, 2012 as the
date of the first-in-the-nation primary, and Texas' primary
date of May 29 was not set until March 1, 2012 due to legal
battle over redistricting. In the 2008 cycle (>),
it
took
until
Nov.
26,
2007
for
Massachusetts
Gov.
Deval
Patrick
(D)
to
sign
into
law
a
measure
setting
the
state's
Feb.
5
presidential
primary.
Gardner did not change the Feb. 11, 2020 date.
Despite his chaotic and controversial
presidency, Donald Trump was solidly positioned to be the
Republican standard-bearer in 2020. At the 2019 RNC
winter meeting, members approved a resolution declaring,
"The Republican National Committee hereby offers its
undivided support for President Donald J. Trump and his
effective Presidency." Trump's control over the party
was such that he attracted only three opponents who were not
able to gain any traction.
The field of more than 20 candidates seeking
the Democratic nomination in 2019-20 stood in stark contrast
to 2015-16 in which the strength of former Secretary of
State Hillary Clinton, long seen as the inevitable nominee,
led to a small field and ultimately a two-person race with
Sen. Bernie Sanders.
Democrats' 2020 field included
establishment-types and outsiders, young and old, holding
views from democratic socialist to progressive to
pragmatic. The field included half a dozen women (+),
several
African
Americans,
a
Latino,
an
Asian-American
and
a
gay
man.
Candidates
brought
experience
in
the
executive
branch,
the
U.S.
Senate,
the
U.S.
House,
as
governors
or
in
other
statewide
offices, in local government, and in the private sector (+).
There was a 40-year spread between the youngest candidate
and the oldest (+).
One wondered
why such a large number of candidates, some with seemingly
no hope of winning, were running. Although the last
sitting member of the U.S. House elected president was James
A. Garfield in 1880, four current House members have entered
the race. About 15% of the Democratic caucus in the
U.S. Senate was running. The mayor of South Bend, a
city with a population of a bit more than 102,000, was
running. One could argue that Trump upset the normal
order. Some of these candidates were no doubt thinking
"if someone with Trump's set of qualifications or lack of
qualifications can get elected, surely I can" or "I can do a
much, much better job than this guy." Democrats see
Trump as an aberration, beatable, but, one should never
underestimate Democrats' ability to "blow it." Hillary
Clinton managed that feat in 2016. Several of the
candidates seemed to be running message campaigns, rather
than holding realistic thoughts of actually winning the
nomination. Another good explanation for the large
field came from a Bloomberg Opinion piece by Jonathan
Bernstein; he pointed to the DNC debate criteria for which
"the qualifying standards were set extremely low."
The large field did create the possibility of an unexpected
outcome as happened in 2016 when Trump vanquished 16 other
candidates. Into early 2020 some observers saw a
possibility that none of the candidates was strong enough to
secure a majority of the delegates and the race might go to
the convention (>).
However, the field narrowed steadily as candidates found
their messages did not resonate, did poorly at fundraising,
and failed to gain traction. The ever tightening
criteria for participation in the debates furthered the
winnowing process. By the time of the first contest on
Feb. 3, 2020, fifteen major
Democratic candidates had ended their bids. Others
endured for one or two contests. It is difficult to
imagine how the campaign would have been conducted had the
pandemic took hold a few months earlier and so many
candidates were still competing. During the Democratic
primary contest, campaigns raised and spent more than $2
billion in the quest for the nomination, a figure which
includes the two big self funders, Bloomberg and Steyer, but
also individual contributions totaling more than $700
million to the campaigns (+).
Exiting1the Races After the First
Contest on Feb. 3:
DEMOCRATIC |
< earlier exits |
Andrew Yang |
Feb. 11, 2020 |
U.S. Sen. Michael
Bennet (CO) |
Feb.
11, 2020 |
Former Gov. Deval
Patrick (NH) |
Feb.
12, 2020 |
Tom Steyer |
Feb.
29, 2020 |
Former South Bend (IN)
Mayor Pete Buttigieg |
Mar.
1, 2020 |
U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar
(MN) |
Mar.
2, 2020 |
Former NYC Mayor Mike
Bloomberg |
Mar.
4, 2020 |
U.S. Sen. Elizabeth
Warren (MA) |
Mar.
5, 2020 |
U.S. Sen. Bernie
Sanders (I-VT) |
Apr.
8, 2020 |
REPUBLICAN | |
Former U.S. Rep. Joe
Walsh |
Feb.
7, 2020 |
Former Gov. Bill Weld |
Mar.
18,
2020 |
Biden's strong showing in the South Carolina primary proved
to be the turning point in the Democratic primary
campaign. Before South Carolina, particularly
following Sanders' strong showing in Nevada, the question
was "is Bernie unstoppable?" Biden, meanwhile, had
achieved only very modest showings in Iowa, New Hampshire
and Nevada. In reaction to the apparent strength of
Sanders, and bolstered by the endorsement of U.S. Rep. Jim
Clyburn (SC-6) and African American support, Biden finally
won a contest. In the days that followed, the former
vice president received a flood of endorsements as the
establishment coalesced behind him (+).
By
Super
Tuesday
March
3
only
five
candidates
remained,
and
Biden's
victories
on
Super
Tuesday
cemented
his
position
as
the
clear
frontrunner
and
effectively
reduced
the
campaign
to
a
two-person
race.
As
some
observers
noted,
the
very
diverse
field
had
been
reduced
to
two
old
white
men.
The
stage
could
have
been
set
for
a
retake
of
2016—Bernie
versus
the
establishment.
However,
by
the
second
week
of
March
2020
the
seriousness
of
the coronavirus outbreak was clear, and over the course of
just a few weeks the campaign was reduced to a virtual
endeavor and many states postponed presidential primaries.(+). On April 8
Sanders suspended his campaign, vowing to work with
Biden.
Others
While the major parties get 99-percent plus of the
attention, third parties are also selecting their nominees (+).
Libertarians,
Greens,
and
the
Constitution
Party
will
run
candidates
in
November,
but
none
of
their
prospects
have
significant
national
profiles.
In
addition,
there
was
the
possibility
of
a
credible
independent candidacy, although this now seems
improbable. Former Starbucks executive Howard Schultz
looked into an independent run in the first part of 2019,
but his effort attracted little enthusiasm.
For 2016 Pew Research Center reported that,
"More than 57.6 million people, or 28.5% of estimated
eligible voters, voted in the Republican and Democratic
presidential primaries...close to but not quite at the
record participation level set in 2008 (>)."
(Also see USEP).
In particular, Pew reported there was record turnout in a
number of Republican contests due to interest in Donald
Trump. However, GOP turnout dropped markedly after the
Indiana primary, when he became the presumptive nominee and
only remaining candidate, going from 16.6% in the 29
primaries through Indiana to 8.4% thereafter. Pew
reported overall Democratic turnout in presidential
primaries was 14.4%. For the 2020 primaries,
Democratic turnout appeared high in early contests, but
coronavirus concerns as well as moves of some states to
later the primary calendar will likely affect turnout.
Lack of competition on the Republican side should result in
lower turnout in GOP presidential primaries.
During the period between the end of the
primaries and the conventions, the presumptive nominee seeks
to position for the general election. Typically he or
she bolsters his or her campaign organization and places key
people in the national party committees to prepare for the
general election. Democrats were set to have their
earliest convention since 1992, from July 13-16, but the
coronavirus pandemic prompted them to push it back by about
a month to the week of Aug. 17. How effectively a
presumptive nominee uses the months leading up to the
convention can have important consequences on his (or her)
success in the fall.
The March 3 Super Tuesday, March 10 mini Super Tuesday and
March 17 contests, made former Vice President Joe Biden the
clear frontrunner in the race for the nomination.
Biden's campaign took some early steps to pivot toward the
general election. On March 12 the campaign
announced Jennifer O'Malley Dillon as campaign
manager. On March 15 the campaign announced it was
adopting a couple of ideas championed by Sen. Bernie
Sanders, who was still competing, and by former candidate
Sen. Elizabeth Warren (+). In the
March 15 debate at CNN studios in Washington, DC Biden
committed that he would pick a woman as his running mate (>).
From mid-March the coronavirus pandemic has cast a shadow over all aspects of American life. By April 11, the United States passed 20,000 deaths due to the virus, the most of any country, by April 25 the death toll passed 50,000 and on May 27 100,000. Biden and his campaign have of necessity had to maintain a pretty narrow focus on that subject. As he is not currently in office, a lot of what he is doing reacting to and critiquing President Trump. Doubts about Biden's sometimes wobbly performance have continued (1, 2, 3). The Trump campaign and RNC quickly highlight instances of "Joe Biden’s continued inability to communicate coherently—a sad truth that has been publicly noted by Democrats and media figures alike." Additionally, at the end of March, Biden faced an allegation of sexual assault from Tara Reade, who worked as a staff assistant for then-Sen. Biden in 1993 (>); the campaign denied the claim and Biden himself addressed the charge in a May 1 interview on MSNBC "Morning Joe" declaring, "It did not happen. Period. (+)" Still, the story has not entirely gone away (>).
On other fronts, though, things were
coming together for Biden. On April 8 Sanders
suspended his campaign, making Biden the presumptive
nominee, and on April 13 the Vermont Senator endorsed Biden
(+).
Biden has wooed Sanders' supporters and progressives on
policy and on process. On April 9 he announced
proposals to lower the age for Medicare eligibility to 60
and forgive student debt for low-income and middle class
families (+).
(This is somewhat counter to conventional wisdom that the
presumptive nominee must move back to the center after
playing to more committed or extreme elements of his or he
party to win in the primaries). On April 30 the Biden
and Sanders camps announced an agreement on allocation and
election of at-large and PLEO delegates and standing
committee members for the Democratic National Convention (+) and
on May 13 they announced leaders of six Biden-Sanders unity
task forces (+).
Other former 2020 candidates are working with Biden on
virtual fundraisers and other events (+).
Former President Barack Obama endorsed Biden on April 14 (+)
and he has also gained the backing of 2000 nominee Al Gore
(April 22) and 2016 nominee Hillary Clinton (April
28). The DNC has built significant infrastructure
to support the Biden campaign (+), and on April 24
the campaign signed a joint fundraising agreement with the
DNC including installing a new CEO at the party.
After several months at home, Biden began to venture out in a number of low key appearances (+). On Memorial Day he and wife Jill laid a wreath at Delaware Memorial Bridge Veterans Memorial Park. On June 9 he met with the family of George Floyd at Lucille's Restaurant in Houston.
The period from late April to early June was
seen as particularly damaging to President Trump's
re-election prospects. From the outset of the
coronavirus pandemic, Trump was on the defensive about his
early response and shortcomings in testing. Trump's
televised briefings did put him front and center through
most of April (+).
He declared he was a "war-time president" and the ratings
were good. Ultimately episodes such as his touting of
hydroxychloroquine and his musings on disinfectant (Apr. 23)
undercut his case. The "rally around the flag" effect
was not evident. In May Trump pushed for reopening the
economy faster than some thought prudent, heralding a
"transition to greatness" (May 8). There were signs of
trouble in the numbers, the tens of million unemployed and
the 100,000 deaths (May 27), and in the tweets, where Trump
still found time to push "Obamagate" theories (+),
and his repeated smears of "Morning Joe" co-host Joe
Scarborough were widely condemned (1,
2).
Trump's refusal to wear a mask in public, counter to public
health recommendations, also drew criticism.
The killing of George Floyd by Minneapolis
police and the unrest that followed led Trump to react in
one of the most poorly conceived photo ops ever on June 1,
as he had Lafayette Square cleared of peaceful protestors so
he could stand in front of St. John's Church holding a Bible
(+).
Trump
continued
his
"law
and
order"
stance
and
Republicans
sought
to
tie
Democrats
to
calls
by some activists to defund the police.
The May jobs report (out June 5) provided some relatively good news. The Trump campaign proclaimed "the great American comeback is underway" (+) and the RNC heralded the news that, "Thanks To President Trump’s Economic Leadership America Is Getting Back To Work. Indeed, the first part of June saw many small businesses reopening, but COVID cases and deaths continued, with spikes and increases in some states. However, the underlying reality of the situation was dire; in late July the U.S. passed four million COVID cases and 150,000 deaths from the virus. At the end of July the Bureau of Economic Affairs reported that real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 32.9 percent in the second quarter of 2020 (+).
Bad news continued to accumulate.
Trump's hesitating walk down a ramp after speaking to cadets
at West Point on June 12 led to questions about his health (+),
recalling
Hillary
Clinton's
health issues in Sept. 2016 (+).
Three
unflattering books were out or en route: former National
Security Advisor John Bolton's The Room Where It Happened (Simon &
Schuster +,
June 23) (+),
neice Mary L. Trump's Too
Much and Never Enough (Simon & Schuster +,
July 28) and former Trump fixer/lawyer Michael Cohen's work
in progress.
Throughout the ups and downs, the Trump campaign was at work. Rapid response was fully engaged (+), fundraising remained strong (+), and each week it offered a full online broadcast schedule with something new almost every day, featuring programs such as "War Room Weekly," "Veterans for Trump Online Battle Brief" and "Blacks for Trump Real Talk Online" (+). Trump resumed in-person fundraising at an event in Dallas on June 11 and held his first MAGA rally since March 2 in Tulsa on June 20 (+). On July 15, the campaign announced Bill Stepien would replace Brad Parscale as campaign manager, although son-in-law Jared Kushner, a senior advisor at the White House, is said to be effectively in charge. In early June Trump determined to move the convention away from Charlotte, but on July 23 he terminated the Jacksonville effort in the face of spiking COVID cases in Florida (+). Trump and the campaign have pushed back at the media (1, 2), but are operating in an environment of overwhelming skeptical/unfavorable coverage (+).
The Biden campaign settled on a campaign
message "Build Back Better." The campaign itself
remained in virtual mode, its most visible activity being
many roundtables hosted by surrogates. Biden himself
has maintained a very low profile. Meanwhile, the
Trump campaign has opened field offices and is doing door
knocking and actual in-person phone banks.
In a sense this phase, the calm after the heat of the contested primaries, is also the calm before the storm. These few months appear to augur a very rough fall campaign for Trump.
Past
Campaigns
Looking at the 2016 post-primary period, the Trump campaign
fell short by most measures. He continued to provoke
controversies and raise doubts about his temperament and
qualifications to be president. Quite a few prominent
Republicans refused to support him. Trump's campaign
organization made some additions but remained a fraction of
the size of Clinton's team. The advertising imbalance
in favor of the Democrat was staggering. While Clinton
and allies, particularly Priorities USA Action, made
significant buys in battleground states, the Trump campaign
itself ran no ads and allies made only minor buys.
Also in the lead up to the convention the Clinton campaign
used the platform process to build bridges with the Sanders
camp.
In 2012, although former Gov. Mitt Romney was seen as the
frontrunner from the start of the campaign, there was a lack
of enthusiasm among some Republicans, and he endured ups and
downs. Former Sen. Rick Santorum finally suspended his
campaign on April 10, former Speaker Newt Gingrich suspended
his campaign on May 2, and Rep. Ron Paul continued to May
14. Romney devoted a lot of attention to fundraising,
doing more than thirty fundraisers a month in May, June and
August. From June 15-19 he did a stretch of retail
campaigning in an “Every Town Counts” bus tour, visiting six
states that Obama carried in 2008. A highlight of
Romney's pre-convention activity was his overseas trip in
late July; he travel to London for the opening ceremonies of
the Olympics, and to Israel and Poland.
In 2008, on the Republican side, Sen. John McCain wrapped
up the Republican nomination on March 4, leaving almost six
months until the convention. In early April McCain did
a week-long "Service to America" tour designed to highlight
elements of his biography; later in the month he toured
"forgotten places." McCain also did a lot of
fundraising in this period. Sen. Barack Obama took a
risk in his trip to the Middle East and Europe from July
18-26.
In 2004 the calendar again led to early selection of the
Democratic nominee. Sen. John Edwards, the last major
challenger to Sen. John Kerry, withdrew from the race on
March 3. In the months leading up to the convention
Kerry engaged in record-breaking fundraising efforts.
In 2000 the post-primary period proved important. Gov. George W. Bush effectively secured the Republican nomination on March 7, 2000; during late March and April he introduced a reading initiative, a plan to clean up brownfields, a "New Prosperity Initiative" to help people move from poverty to the middle class and a health care plan. More such proposals followed in the months leading up to the convention. For Vice President Al Gore, however, there were some bumps. He moved his campaign headquarters to a third location and brought on a new campaign chairman, while weathering concerns about his polling numbers. In June Gore launched a "Progress and Prosperity" tour.
For 2016, RNC chairman Reince Priebus pushed to hold a relatively early convention so that the several-month period between the time when the Republican nominee is determined and when he (or she) can start spending on the general election campaign is reduced.
In 1996 Bob Dole had essentially won the nomination by mid-March, but he faced the period from April to the convention with virtually no funds. In June, Dole gained much attention when he surprised everyone by resigning his Senate seat.
In 1992 Bill Clinton used the month of June to regroup
following a tough passage through the primaries.
[vice
presidential speculation]
An undercurrent of vice presidential speculation occurs
throughout the presidential campaign cycle. Some of
the candidates running for president were widely seen by
observers running not so much to win the nomination as to
advance their vice presidential prospects (or even prospects
for possible positions in the Cabinet).
Once a presidential candidate gains enough
delegates to become the presumptive nominee, speculation on
possible running mates accelerates markedly. All sorts
of rumors develop, but there is little reliable
information. Behind the scenes the campaigns do
extensive vetting of vice presidential prospects, for the
presumptive nominee does not want any unpleasant surprises
as happened with Tom Eagleton in 1972 or the Dan Quayle
choice in 1988.
As noted above, in the March 15 debate likely
Democratic nominee Joe Biden committed that he would pick a
woman as his running mate (>),
subsequently he elaborated on his selection process a bit (+)
and on April 30 he announced Vice Presidential Selection
Committee co-chairs and vetting team leaders (+).
The likely or putative nominee weighs many factors in
selecting a running mate. The most obvious criteria is
that the vice president should be capable of ascending to
the presidency in the event of the unexpected.
Compatibility is an important consideration. The vice
presidential pick should also add balance to the ticket
geographically, ideologically or in terms of
experience.
Various prospects enjoyed speculation
boomlets in the months from April to July. Supporters
advocated for one or another of the potential running mates
in op-eds, open letters and petitions. Many of the
prospects did virtual events for the Biden campaign.
Biden received input from many, including key supporter U.S.
Rep. Jim Clyburn, that he should choose a woman of color as
his running mate. Among the names in circulation were
U.S. Sen. Kamala Harris, former national security advisor
Susan Rice, U.S. Rep. Val Demings, Atlanta Mayor Keisha
Lance Bottoms, U.S. Sen. Tammy Duckworth and U.S. Rep. Karen
Bass. Early on U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar, was see as a
leading contender, in part because her moderate views
aligned with those of Biden, but her stock dropped sharply
after the killing of George Floyd in Minneapolis in late
May. U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren held a steady position
in the top tier of many speculation lists.
In early 2019, as Biden considered a run,
there were rumors/reports that he might select a running
mate to start his campaign; the name of Stacey Abrams, the
2018 nominee for governor in Georgia, was frequently
mentioned, but the rumors proved unfounded. There have
been instances in the past where a candidate still pursuing
the nomination did make an early VP announcement. The
most notable example of an early VP pick occurred in
1976. Ronald Reagan, on July 26, 1976, challenging
Gerald Ford for the Republican nomination, announced that he
would pair with Sen. Richard Schweiker (R-PA). In 2016
Sen. Ted Cruz reportedly tried to form a "unity ticket" with
Sen. Rubio but was rebuffed; he then selected Carly Fiorina
ahead of the Indiana primary, but it did not help. In
March 2013 Bloomberg
Businessweek's Joshua Green reported that Newt
Gingrich and Rick Santorum had engaged in negotiations to
form a "Unity Ticket" starting in early Feb. 2012, but they
could not agree upon who would head the ticket. During
the 2008 primaries, there were suggestions that Sen.
Clinton, trailing in the Democratic race, might try this
approach.
There is also the possibility that an incumbent president
seeking re-election could decide to dump his vice
president. In 2010 there were a number of musings that
President Obama might or should replace Vice President
Biden. A number of commentators suggested that he be
replaced by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, but nothing
came of it. Likewise there in 2018 there were some
suggestions that President Trump might replace Vice
President Pence.
In recent election cycles the VP announcement has most
frequently been done a couple of days to a couple of weeks
before the convention. Keeping the announcement until
shortly before the convention allows for a triumphal tour to
the big gathering, draws out the period of speculation and
creates further interest in the candidacy. Often
extraordinary measures are taken to keep the selection
secret until the announcement. Reporters seek
information on meetings between the presumed nominee and
various prospects but have little else to go on.
Speculation reaches a fever pitch; groups and activists seek
to boost their favorites or discourage less favored
prospects. The campaigns send out a variety of
communications to build suspense ("be the first to
know"). The location of the announcement can also have
significance; in many cases the presumptive nominee has
opted for either a battleground state or his home state to
formally introduce his or her running mate.
Recent Vice Presidential Annoucements
Location |
Date |
Conv. Start |
|||
'16 |
Trump |
Pence |
New York, NY |
July
15 |
July 18 |
Clinton |
Kaine |
Miami, FL |
July
22 |
July 25 |
|
'12 |
Romney |
Ryan |
Norfolk, VA |
Aug.
11 (1) |
Aug. 27 |
'08 |
Obama |
Biden |
Springfield, IL |
Aug.
23 (1,
2) |
Aug. 25 |
McCain |
Palin |
Dayton, OH |
Aug. 29 (1,
2)+ |
Sept. 1 |
|
'04 |
Kerry |
Edwards |
Pittsburgh, PA |
July
6 (1,
2) |
July 26 |
'00 | Bush |
Cheney |
Austin, TX |
July 25 |
July 31 |
Gore |
Lieberman |
Nashville, TN |
Aug. 8 |
Aug. 14 |
|
'96 |
Dole |
Kemp |
Russell, KS |
Aug. 10 |
Aug. 12 |
'92 |
Clinton |
Gore |
Little Rock, AR |
July 9 |
July 13 |
Resources
2016
| 2012 |
2008
| 2004
| 2000
RNC: THE RULES
OF THE REPUBLICAN PARTY As adopted by the 2016
Republican National Convention July 18, 2016 and
amended by the Republican National Committee on July
20, 2018.
DNC:
2020 PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN RESOURCES.
REPORT
OF
THE UNITY REFORM COMMISSION (Dec. 2017). [PDF]
(+)
Note
1. There are
different ways for a candidate to end his or
campaign. A candidate can a) announce he or she
is suspending his or her campaign, but still seek to
accumulate delegates in subsequent primaries so as
influence the platform and convention activities, as
Bernie Sanders did, or b) for some states at least, he
or she can take the additional step of notifying
election officials and formally withdrawing from the
race. One effect of formally withdrawing is to
change how results are reported, as this note from the
Colorado Secretary of State explains: "Under Colorado
law, any votes cast for candidates who formally
withdraw after ballots are printed are invalid and
shall not be counted. As a result, no results for
these candidates will be displayed on this state
results page or any individual county results page.
Results for candidates who did not officially withdraw
but publicly announced suspensions of their
presidential campaigns are displayed on this website,
because such public announcements have no legal effect
under Colorado election law." Arizona is another
state that uses this approach. In New York, the
State Board of Elections treated suspension and
withdrawal as the same, voting on April 27 to cancel
the rescheduled June 23 presidential primary because
Sanders, having suspended his campaign, was no longer
eligible to appear on the ballot (+).
See also
Luke Perry. Sept. 8, 2021. THE 2020
DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY: Key Developments, Dynamics, and
Lessons for 2024. Springer.
[Palgrave MacMillan]
"Provides a multi-layered analysis of the Democratic
Primary, including party rules, party politics, campaign
strategies, ideological tensions, and demographic
considerations;
incorporates Political Scientists with a range of
expertise related to campaigns and elections, including
state politics, race, gender, and journalism; focuses on
major changes taking place within the presidential
primary process, including shifts in conventional wisdom
regarding campaign strategy, the arrangement of the
primary calendar, and the nature of national party
conventions."
Elaine C. Kamarck. Nov. 13,
2018. PRIMARY
POLITICS: Everything You Need to Know about How
America Nominates Its Presidential Candidates (3rd
edition). Washington, DC: Brookings
Institution Press.
"In Primary Politics, political insider
Elaine Kamarck explains how the presidential nomination
process became the often baffling system we have today,
including the “robot rule.” Her focus is the largely
untold story of how presidential candidates since the
early 1970s have sought to alter the rules in their
favor and how their failures and successes have led to
even more change."
Curly Haugland and Sean Parnell. May
2016. UNBOUND: The Conscience of a
Republican Delegate. Woodbridge,
VA: Citizens
In Charge Foundation.
"Unbound: The Conscience of a Republican Delegate
makes a powerful case that delegates to the Republican
Party convention are not bound to vote for any
particular candidate based on primary and caucus
results, state party rules, or even state law.
Co-authors Sean Parnell and Curly Haugland document
nearly 240 instances at past conventions in which
delegates invoked their right to vote their
conscience." [ed. note: Starting with the 2008
Convention the RNC put binding of delegates into the
rules. Haugland argues that the RNC is an
association and members, not primaries or presidential
candidates should select the delegates; he says that the
RNC has manipulated the language of Rule 16 filings].
Barbara Norrander. July
2010. THE
IMPERFECT PRIMARY: Oddities, Biases, and Strengths of
U.S. Presidential Nomination Politics.
New York: Routledge.
"In The Imperfect Primary, political
scientist Barbara Norrander explores how presidential
candidates are nominated, discusses past and current
proposals for reform, and examines the possibility for
more practical, incremental changes to the electoral
rules. Norrander reminds us to be careful what we wish
for—reforming the presidential nomination process is as
complex as the current system. Through the modeling of
empirical research to demonstrate how questions of
biases can be systematically addressed, students can
better see the advantages, disadvantages, and potential
for unintended consequences in a whole host of reform
proposals."
Jack Citrin and David Karol, eds. July 2009. NOMINATING THE PRESIDENT: Evolution and Revolution in 2008 and Beyond. Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield.
"The 2008 presidential nominations were unprecedented
in many ways. Marking another step in the
democratization of the selection process and a
surprising loss of control by party elites, the contests
in both parties were unusually competitive and the
outcomes belied the predictions of experts. This book
offers a fresh look at the role of parties, the
constraints of campaign finance, the status of
front-runners, and the significance of rules, race, and
gender in the post-reform era. In this volume, leading
scholars assess the state of the process with original
research about money, scheduling, superdelegates, and
the role of race and gender in voting."
Marty Cohen, David Karol, Hans Noel, and Joel Zaller. Oct. 2008. THE PARTY DECIDES: Presidential Nominations Before and After Reform. Chicago, IL: The University of Chicago Press.
"Tracing the evolution of presidential nominations since the 1790s, this volume demonstrates how party insiders have sought since America’s founding to control nominations as a means of getting what they want from government. Contrary to the common view that the party reforms of the 1970s gave voters more power, the authors contend that the most consequential contests remain the candidates’ fights for prominent endorsements and the support of various interest groups and state party leaders. These invisible primaries produce frontrunners long before most voters start paying attention, profoundly influencing final election outcomes and investing parties with far more nominating power than is generally recognized."
And see:
California SB. 568 -
Prime Time Primary Bill
Tom Perez. "Making 2020
Transparent." Democratic National Committee,
Nov. 4, 2017.
Walter Shapiro. "The Chosen One: Thoughts
on a Better, Fairer, and Smarter Way to Choose
Presidential Nominees." Brennan
Center for Justice. April 26, 2017.
Jonathan Bernstein. "De Blasio, Etc.: Why Are So
Many Implausible Democrats Running?" Bloomberg
[Opinion], May 16, 2019.