"I
think...we're a little crazy and cantankerous, and we're always sort of
different in
throwing a monkey wrench in the machinery, but fundamentally I think
we're a pretty good reflection of America."
--Phil
Noble
First-in-the-South
South Carolina has
held the
first-in-the-South Republican presidential primary since 1980, and
state Republicans are proud of the primary (1, 2).
Democrats have less experience with the South Carolina
presidential primary. In 2004 the primary was relatively early,
on February 3, and Sen. John Edwards, the Southerner in the race,
won. In 2006
the Democratic National Committee voted to add South Carolina as
a new pre-window primary, thus reinforcing the state's
early position. In 2020 South Carolina was the fourth contest,
after
Iowa (Feb. 3), New Hampshire (Feb. 11), and Nevada (Feb. 22), and it
was to have a decisive effect on race for the Democratic nomination.
The Palmetto State has an estimated population of over
5.1
million as of July 2019 (+).
Its
46
counties
stretch
from
the
Coastal
Plain
to
the
Piedmont
Plateau
(Pee
Dee)
to
the
Blue
Ridge
Mountains.
There
are
stark
differences.
Upstate
is
a
strong
area
for
social
conservatives.
For
example,
Bob
Jones
University, known as "The Buckle on the Bible
Belt," is located in Greenville. In
historic Charleston, one finds stately mansions and a genteel
atmosphere,
attracting many tourists. The Census Bureau estimates 27.3% of
South Carolina's population are Black or African
American, but in nine
counties the Black or African American population is over 50%, topped
by Allendale County at 72.9%. At the other extreme in Pickens
County the
Black or African American population is 6.8%. There
is also a significant
veterans
population; veterans account for 9.3% of the state's population
compared to 7.3% nationally >.
The
Census
Bureau
reports
that
the
Myrtle
Beach-Conway-North
Myrtle
Beach, SC-NC Metropolitan Area showed the second fastest percentage
growth of any Metropolitan Area in the country, 32.0%, from 2010 to
2019 (>).
Racial politics still form a strong undercurrent in South Carolina. The Confederate battle flag flew atop the Capitol Dome in Columbia until 2000, when, after considerable debate, it was relegated to a flagpole at the Confederate Soldier Monument on the Statehouse grounds. Not until July 10, 2015 was the flag finally removed from the grounds altogether. Scars from the murder of nine black churchgoers at Emanuel A.M.E. Church in Charleston on June 17, 2015 still linger.
The weather can also be a factor in South
Carolina.
In early October 2015 Hurricane Joaquin and other
weather systems converged to produce a "1-in-1,000 year rain event"
which led to record rainfalls and massive flooding in the state.
Subsequent years have seen damaging storms as well: Matthew in 2016,
Irma in 2017 and Florence in 2018.
Addressing the 2016 South
Carolina primary, Kendra Stewart, professor
at the College of Charleston, stated, "South
Carolina can be expected to do the unexpected. The primary here
is
often a game changer – South Carolina tends to go against the grain
and picks the candidate who is not the likely suspect." Phil
Noble,
president of the South Carolina New Democrats and founder and CEO of
Phil Noble
&
Associates and Politics Online, describes his fellow Palmetto Staters
thusly, "I
think...we're a little crazy and cantankerous, and we're always sort of
different in
throwing a monkey wrench in the machinery, but fundamentally I think
we're a pretty good reflection of America."
In the pre-campaign period, the 2018 mid-term
elections provided an opportunity for visiting presidential
prospects to help out candidates and committees. In the
governor's race, Gov. Henry McMaster (R), who ascended to the office
when Gov. Nikki Haley (R) took up the position of U.S. Ambassador to
the United Nations, fended off a challenge from state Rep. James Smith
(D) by 54.0% to 45.9% (+).
(McMaster,
then
lieutenant
governor,
was
one
of
the
few
statewide
officials
to
support
Donald
Trump
in
the
2016
Republican
primary
campaign).
Republicans
also
prevailed
in
the
races
for
Secretary
of
State,
Treasurer,
Attorney
General,
Comptroller
General, State
Superintendent of Education and Commissioner of Agriculture.
There were, however, a couple of bright spots for Democrats. In a
stunning upset in the 1st CD, a coastal district running from Hilton
Head Island to Charleston County, Joe Cunningham (D) defeated Katie
Arrington (R) by 50.6% to 49.2%. Arrington had defeated incumbent
U.S. Rep. Mark Sanford (R) in the June 12 primary. Additionally
in a
special election to complete the unfinished term in Senate District 20,
Dick Harpootlian (D) defeated Benjam Dunn (R), flipping the seat.
Although South Carolina did not get as much traffic as
Iowa or New Hampshire, over a dozen prospects visited in 2018,
including attorney Michael Avenatti, former Vice President Joe Biden,
former NYC Mayor Mike Bloomberg, Mayor Pete Buttigieg, Sen. Cory
Booker, Gov. Steve Bullock, then U.S. Rep. John Delaney (declared),
Mayor Eric Garcetti, Sen. Kamala Harris, Sen. Jeff Merkley, former Gov.
Deval Patrick, Sen. Bernie Sanders, U.S. Rep. Eric Swalwell, and
Marianne Williamson. Oct. 2018 was particularly busy. Sen.
Elizabeth Warren did not visit, but she did dispatch one of her staff
to serve a three-month
stint as
communications
director
for the South Carolina Democratic Party.
South Carolina does not get
as much
attention as Iowa and New Hampshire do, but major Democratic campaigns
laid
the groundwork for a competitive campaign heading to the Feb. 29, 2020
primary. The
number of
Democratic candidates started out in the double digits. At one
point
or another over the course of the cycle, at least 18 of the candidates
had some kind of organization on
the ground, but some of these efforts were thin and disappeared early
on. By the Dec. 4
deadline, a total of 14 candidates had filed to appear on the primary
ballot (+). Twelve
candidates appeared on the ballot, but by the time of the primary on
Feb. 29 five had withdrawn and only six were actively competing.
For Democrats, the African-American vote is very significant. African Americans were well-represented on the campaign staffs. The candidates and their campaigns courted influencers such as black mayors and other officials, emphasized issues such as civil rights and criminal justice reform (1, 2, 3),and advertised in and paid attention to black media.
Opinion polls consistently showed former Vice
President Joe Biden as the frontrunner; Biden had longstanding ties
to South Carolina, as he and his family often vacationed at Kiawah
Island near Charleston. Despite the
drubbing he sustained in the 2016 South
Carolina primary, Sen. Bernie Sanders made considerable efforts to
connect with minority voters, and he secured some early
endorsements. Sen. Kamala Harris had been seen as a strong
contender but ended her campaign on Dec. 3. Tom Steyer emerged as
a force later in the campaign. He spent big, put a lot of time
into the
state, and gained quite a few endorsements; his wife even moved there
for a bit. Advertising Analytics
reported that through Feb.
25 the Steyer campaign had spent more than twice as much on advertising
(broadcast,
cable, digital, radio and satellite) as the other campaigns combined
($23.6 million to $2.8m for Buttigieg, $2.3m for Bloomberg, $1.8m for
Warren, $1.8m for Klobuchar, $1.1m for Biden and bit under
$800,000 for Sanders).
Major multi-candidate
events
included:
June 15, 2019 (Charleston) - Black Economic
Alliance Presidential
Candidates Forum.
June 22, 2019 (Columbia)
- We Decide:
Planned Parenthood Action Fund 2020 Election Membership Forum.
June 22, 2019 (Columbia) - South
Carolina
Democratic
Party
Convention.
June 21, 2019 (Columbia)
- Jim
Clyburn's World Famous Fish Fry.
Sept. 16, 2019 (Galivants
Ferry) - 2019
Galivants
Ferry
Stump.
Oct. 5, 2019 (Charleston) - Charleston
County
Democratic Party Blue Jamboree.
Oct. 26-27, 2019 (Columbia) - Collegiate
Bipartisan
Presidential
Forum
at
Benedict
College (replaced
2019
Second Step Presidential Justice Forum).
Nov.
8,
2019
(Orangeburg)
-
2019
Presidential
Forum
on
Environmental
Justice.
Jan. 20, 2020 (Columbia) - King
Day
at
the Dome.
Feb. 24, 2020 (Charleston, SC) - South Carolina Democratic Party
First in
the South Dinner.
Feb. 26, 2020 (N. Charleston, SC) - Rev. Al Sharpton
and NAN Ministers' Breakfast.
Seven candidates participated in the CBS News debate in Charleston on Feb. 25, including Biden, ahead in the polls but coming off lackluster showings in the first three states, Sanders with three strong showings, and Steyer, making a big play with all his resources. Warren, Buttigieg and Klobuchar were not expected to do well. The seventh candidate, Bloomberg, was not even on the ballot in South Carolina, although it is worth noting that he did have a significant endorsement, that of Columbia Mayor Steve Benjamin. On Feb. 26, three days before the primary, there was a major development in the race as U.S. House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn endorsed Biden.
There was no Republican primary in 2020; this is often the case here when there is an incumbent. It happened in 1984 when President Ronald Reagan sought re-election and in 2004 when President George W. Bush sought re-election. In 2012, when President Obama was the only candidate on the ballot, Democrats did not hold a primary; instead they held precinct reorganization and presidential preference meetings.
South Carolina
does not have registration by party; this was an open primary and any
of the state's 3,300,161 registered voters could have
participated.
There was some concern among Democrats that Republicans, with
no primary of their own (+),
might try to make some mischief, but that did not happen. 540,062
South Carolinians or 16.36% voted, setting Biden on the path to the
nomination [results and
reactions].
Unlike in many states, in past South
Carolina's presidential primaries had been party-run affairs;
this posed a substantial financial and logistical challenge for the
state parties which had to raise the funds privately. The
tradition of
Saturday voting arose to reduce costs
and increase turnout.
Since 2008 the presidential primaries have been
overseen by the State Election Commission (SEC) and county election
officials, although the setting of the primary dates and other details
is left to the party committees. The parties still underwrite
some of the cost of conducting the primaries. Section
7-11-20(B)(2) of the South Carolina Code (>)
states,
"A
filing
fee
not
to
exceed
twenty
thousand
dollars,
as
determined
by
the
State
Election
Commission,
for
each
candidate
certified
by
a
political
party
must
be
transmitted
by
the
respective
political
party
to
the
State
Election
Commission
and
must
be
used
for
conducting
the
presidential
preference
primaries.")
For 2016, Republicans and Democrats both conducted primaries; the SEC estimated cost of the presidential primaries at $2.5 million. The SEC reimburses counties for most of the major expenses such as hiring poll managers, producing ballots, and printing election notices; other costs such as hiring temporary employees or renting trucks to deliver polling machines are the counties' responsibility.
Democrats
•
In 2004 Sen. John Edwards, who
was born in Seneca, SC, benefited from his Southern roots in a strong
win over Sen. John Kerry.
•
2008 saw record turnout. Many blacks supported
the historic
candidacy of Sen. Barack Obama, and
Sen. Hillary Clinton lagged far behind.
• In 2016 former Sec. of State Hillary Clinton scored a lopsided win over Sen. Bernie Sanders, carrying every county. There was little activity in the way of candidate visits, just a trickle, but the campaigns of Clinton and Sen. Bernie Sanders built active organizations. (Former Gov. Martin O'Malley had a tiny organization before he dropped out). On Dec. 8, 2015 the SCDP executive council certified four candidates to appear on the ballot (+). Clinton was seen as having an advantage due to her support in the African-American community, and that proved to be the case when the votes were tallied.
Feb.
27, 2016 |
Clinton 272,379
(73.44%), Sanders 96,498 (26.02%), Wilson 1,314
(0.35%), O'Malley 713 (0.19%) |
370,904 |
Jan. 26, 2008 |
Obama 294,898
(55.4%), Clinton 140,990 (26.5%), Edwards 93,801
(17.6%), Others 2,462 (0.5%). |
532,151 |
Feb. 3, 2004 |
Edwards 125,944
(45.3%), Kerry 82,668 (29.8%), Sharpton 26,755
(9.6%), Clark 19,999 (7.2%), Dean 13,029 (4.7%), Others
9,342 (3.4%). |
277,737 |
Republicans
The "firewall" reputation traces to the first South Carolina Republican
presidential primary campaign in 1979-80, when legendary operative Lee
Atwater, with help from some dirty tricks, was able to orchestrate
Ronald Reagan's 55% to 30% win over John Connally, with Iowa caucus
winner George H.W. Bush running a distant third at 15%.
•
In 1988,
after mixed results in the earliest contests, Atwater steered now Vice
President George H.W. Bush to a 49% showing over Bob Dole and Steve
Forbes in South Carolina.
•
In 1992, after Pat Buchanan gained a surprisingly strong
showing in the New Hampshire primary, President George H. W. Bush
rebounded with resounding win in South Carolina.
•
In 1996, after mixed results in the earliest contests
Bob Dole defeated Pat Buchanan by 45% to 29%.
•
In 2000 Sen. John McCain came into South Carolina with
momentum from his win in the
New Hampshire primary only to encounter a scurrilous whispering
campaign and fall to Gov. George W. Bush by 53.4% to 41.9%.
•
Sen. John McCain's
2008 win over former Gov. Mike Huckabee in South Carolina, while not
overwhelming, was an
important
step on his road to the nomination. McCain and Huckabee roughly split
the counties,
Huckabee winning 24 to McCain's 22.
Thus, in election after election insurgent-type candidates fell short in South Carolina Republican presidential primaries. Until 2012.
•
In 2012, amid record turnout, Newt Gingrich achieved a
broad win, carrying
all but three
counties; Romney finished first in
Richland County (Columbia) and Charleston and Beaufort Counties on the
coast. While a couple of debates prior to the primary (1, 2) were
important, cultural differences were also a significant factor;
Romney, a Mormon from Massachussetts, simply could not connect with
some sectors of the electorate. [see also: economic impact
of the GOP primary]
•
In 2016 Republican candidates appealed to a number
of
audiences including
social conservatives in Upstate and Tea Party activists concerned about
big government. South
Carolina lived up to its reputation for dirty tricks in politics, and
the
2016 GOP primary saw its share of charges and countercharges (+).
A total of 16 Republican candidates filed to appear on
the
primary ballot by the
Sept. 30 deadlline (+) despite
the high $40,000 filing fee. On Nov. 30, SCGOP chairman Matt
Moore certified 14 candidates to appear on the ballot (+).
By the time the primary arrived on Feb. 20, 2016 the field
had been pared to six candidates. Donald Trump carried 44 of 46
counties, finishing with
a margin of 74,314 votes (10.03 percentage points) over the next
nearest candidate Sen. Marco Rubio. Trump's share of the vote was
a relatively low 32.5%.
Feb.
20, 2016 |
Trump 240,882
(32.5%),
Rubio 166,565 (22.5%), Cruz 165,417 (22.3%), Bush 58,056
(7.8%), Kasich 56,410 (7.6%), Carson 53,551 (7.2%) |
740,881 |
Jan. 21, 2012 | Gingrich 244,113 (40.4%), Romney 168,152 (27.9%), Santorum 102,482 (17.0%), Paul 78,362 (13.0%), Others 10,747 (1.8%). | 603,856 |
Jan. 19, 2008 | McCain 147,686
(33.2%), Huckabee 132,943 (29.8%), F.Thompson 69,651
(15.6%), Romney 68,142 (15.3%), Others 27,077 (6.1%). |
445,499 |
Feb. 19,
2000 |
Bush 305,998 (53.4%), McCain 239,964 (41.9%), Keyes 25,996 (4.5%), Others 1,143 (0.2%). | 573,101 |
March 2, 1996 |
Dole 124,904
(45.1%),
Buchanan 80,824 (29.2%), Forbes 35,039 (12.7%), Alexander
28,647 (10.4%), Others 7,327 (2.7%). |
276,741 |