Primary Debates

On Dec. 20, 2018 the DNC announced a framework for 2020 presidential primary debates that envisages 12 debates, six in 2019 and six in 2020 (+).  Participation in the first seven debates was based on the candidates' ability to meet polling and grassroots contribution thresholds which were announced as the campaign progressed.  Starting with the eighth debate, a delegate threshold was added and with the ninth debate the contribution threshhold was eliminated.  The Republican contest was quiet due to the dominance of incumbent President Donald Trump; his longshot challengers engaged in a handful of debates/joint appearances.  A debate for lesser known candidates of multiple parties is scheduled for Mar. 4, 2020. 

click on images for details...	DEMOCRATS
NBC News, MSNBC and Telemundo
		Qualifying Criteria: 1% in three qualifying polls or 65,000 unique donors including a minimum of 200 unique donors per state in at least 20 U.S. states. 20 Candidates: (a) Booker, Castro, de Blasio, Delaney, Gabbard, Inslee, Klobuchar, O'Rourke, Ryan, Warren. (b) Bennet, Biden, Buttigieg, Gillibrand, Harris, Hickenlooper, Sanders, Swalwell, Williamson, Yang. Not In: Bullock, Moulton.
June 26-27, 2019 in Miami, FL.
CNN
		Qualifying Criteria: 1% in three qualifying polls or 65,000 unique donors including a minimum of 200 unique donors per state in at least 20 U.S. states.   20 Candidates: (a) Bullock, Buttigieg, Delaney, Hickenlooper, Klobuchar, O'Rourke, Ryan, Sanders, Warren, Williamson.  (b) Bennet, Biden, Booker, Castro, de Blasio, Gabbard, Gillibrand, Harris, Inslee, Yang.   Not In: Moulton, Sestak, Steyer.
July 30-31, 2019 in Detroit, MI.
ABC News
		Qualifying Criteria: 2% in four qualifying polls between June 28 and Aug. 28 and 130,000 unique donors including a minimum of 400 unique donors per state in at least 20 U.S. states. 10 Candidates: Biden, Booker, Buttigieg, Castro, Harris, Klobuchar, O'Rourke, Sanders, Warren, Yang. Not In: Bennet, Bullock, de Blasio, Delaney, Gabbard, Ryan, Sestak, Steyer, Williamson.
Sept. 12, 2019 in Houston, TX.
CNN and New York Times
		Qualifying Criteria: 2% in four qualifying polls between June 28 and Oct. 1 and 130,000 unique donors including a minimum of 400 unique donors per state in at least 20 U.S. states.   12 Candidates: Biden, Booker, Buttigieg, Castro, Gabbard, Harris, Klobuchar, O'Rourke, Sanders, Steyer, Warren, Yang.   Not In: Bennet, Bullock, Delaney, Ryan, Sestak, Williamson.
Oct. 15, 2019 in Westerville, OH.
MSNBC and The Washington Post
Nov. 20, 2019 in Atlanta, GA.		Qualifying Criteria: Four-Poll Threshold or Early State Polling Threshold: 3% support in at least four qualifying polls (national or early state) or 5% in two single state polls from any of the four early states between Sept. 13 and Nov. 13 and 165,000 unique donors including a minimum of 600 unique donors per state in at least 20 U.S. states. 10 Candidates: Biden, Booker, Buttigieg, Gabbard, Harris, Klobuchar, Sanders, Steyer, Warren, Yang. Not In: Bennet, Bullock, Castro, Delaney, Patrick, Sestak, Williamson.
PBS Newshour and POLITICO
Dec. 19, 2019 in Los Angeles, CA.		Qualifying Criteria: Four-Poll Threshold or Early State Polling Threshold: 4% support in at least four qualifying polls (national or early state) or 5% in two single state polls from any of the four early states between Sept. 13 and Nov. 13 and 200,000 unique donors including a minimum of 800 unique donors per state in at least 20 U.S. states. 7 Candidates: Biden, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Sanders, Steyer, Warren, Yang. Not In: Bennet, Bloomberg, Booker, Castro, Delaney, Gabbard, Patrick, Williamson.

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	2020 press release
CNN and the Des Moines Register
Jan. 14, 2020 in Des Moines, IA.		Qualifying Criteria: Four-Poll Threshold or Early State Polling Threshold: 5% support in at least four qualifying polls (national or early state) or 7% in two single state polls from any of the four early states between Nov. 14 and Jan. 10 and 225,000 unique donors including a minimum of 1,000 unique donors per state in at least 20 U.S. states. 6 Candidates: Biden, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Sanders, Steyer, Warren. Not In: Bennet, Bloomberg, Delaney, Gabbard, Patrick, Yang.
ABC News and WMUR-TV
		Qualifying Criteria: (1) Delegate threshold based on the results of the Iowa caucuses, at least one pledged delegate; or (2) both a polling requirement and a grassroots fundraising requirement (same as for the Jan. 14, debate). 7 Candidates: Biden, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Sanders, Steyer, Warren, Yang. Not In: Bennet, Bloomberg, Gabbard, Patrick.
Feb. 7, 2020 in Manchester, NH.
NBC News and MSNBC
Feb. 19, 2020 in Las Vegas, NV.		Qualifying Criteria: (1) Delegate threshold based on the results of the IA caucuses and NH primary, at least one pledged delegate, or (2) Polling threshold: 10% or more support in at least four polls, either national polls, or single-state polls of SC, and/or NV. (The qualifying window for polls begins on Jan. 15, 2020 and ends at 11:59 pm Eastern Time on Feb.18, 2020). 6 Candidates: Biden, Bloomberg, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Sanders, Warren. Not In: Gabbard, Steyer.
CBS News and CBC Institute
press releases		Qualifying Criteria: (1) meeting delegate threshold based on the results of the IA caucuses, NHe primary and NV caucuses, at least one pledged delegate, or (2) meeting a polling threshold: 10% or more support in at least four polls, either national or South Carolina polls, or 12% in two single-state polls of South Carolina. (The qualifying window for polls begins on Feb. 4,, 2020 and ends at 11:59 pm Eastern Time on Feb. 24, 2020). 7 Candidates: Biden, Bloomberg, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Sanders, Steyer, Warren. Not In: Gabbard.
Feb. 25, 2020 in Charleston, SC.
CNN and Univision
press releases		Qualifying Criteria: Delegate threshold: candidates must have been allocated at least 20% of the total number of pledged delegates allocated as of 9 am Eastern Time on March 15, 2020. 2 Candidates: Biden, Sanders.
Mar. 15, 2020 in Phoenix, AZ. Washington, DC

 

The 2019-20 Democratic Primary Debates

The DNC has tightened the criteria for partipation in the debates as the primary season progressed.  The first two debates had 20 candidates and were held over two consecutive nights because of the large field of candidates.  By the eleventh debate, which was moved to Washington, DC because of coronavirus, only two candidates remained on stage.

Conducting the June and July debates over two nights was a challenge.  The qualifying candidates participating each night were determined at random. The Democrats' approach to handling the large field for these first two debates did stand in contrast to the Republican 2015-16 debates, where polling was the only criterion used and lower tier candidates were relegated to "B" or "kiddy table" debates. 

For subsequent debates the polling and contribution criteria were progressively raised.  Excluded candidates and critics argued that the DNC and not early state voters were narrowing the field and pointed to a lack of transparency in how the DNC came up with their rules.  Several candidates bowed out after failing to meet the criteria for the third debate.  News reports started to refer to a field of ten candidates, while 19 candidates were still in the race at that point.  The well resourced Tom Steyer invested millions in an advertising campaign to achieve the polling and contribution threshholds, thereby qualifying for the fourth debate, while candidates with significant experience in public office such as Sen. Michael Bennet or Gov. Steve Bullock were excluded.  The seventh debate in Los Angeles on Dec. 19 debate had only seven candidates on stage although 15 were still running.  The eighth debate in Manchester on Feb. 7 excluded several candidates who had been running New Hampshire-focused campaigns, notably Sen. Bennet, former Gov. Deval Patrick and U.S. Rep. Tulsi Gabbard. 

Debates can make a difference. Quite a few New Hampshire voters who had been undecided said Sen. Amy Klobuchar's performance in that debate won them over; Klobuchar achieved a stronger than expected showing in the Feb. 11 primary that allowed her to stay in the race for a few more weeks.  The ninth debate in Las Vegas on Feb. 19 may have been the most consequential.  Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg made his first debate appearance and it did not go well; he drew many attacks, particularly some sharp blows from Sen. Elizabeth Warren, that seriously hurt his campaign.  This debate was also the most watched Democratic primary debate ever.  At the tenth debate in Charleston on Feb. 25, the moderators had trouble maintaining order and there was a lot of crosstalk among the candidates.  The eleventh debate will be different in that it will not have an audience or a spin room due to coronavirus.

Debate criteria are also significant not just because of the message inclusion or exclusion of candidates sends to viewers and voters, but because organizers of some candidate forums use them to determine which candidates to invite.

Televised debates are very tightly controlled events.  Formats are fairly similar, allowing candidates one minute or one minute and 15 seconds to respond to questions.  (Show of hands questions were dispensed with after the first debate). The first ten debates all had large audiences, with attendance primarily determined by the DNC and the relevant state party; observers have noted that this plays to the worst instincts of politicians.  For all of the debates, the candidates' positions on stage were determined by polling numbers.  Candidates at the outer edges of the stage tend to get markedly less speaking time.  During and after a debate pundits and analysts assess winners and losers.  In the spin room at the debate site, surrogates and sometimes the candidates themselves spin reporters.  It is always interesting to see who a campaign puts forward as it spinner(s).  Meanwhile the campaigns email out video clips, favorable coverage and tweets in an attempt to shape perceptions of what happened.  Campaigns seek to build momentum off solid debate performances and some may go so far as to claim a debate as a "break out" moment.

[Ed. note. Although it is difficult with the large number of candidates, some thought might be given to experimenting with the formats.  In 2015-16 Donald Trump went through 11 of these events and emerged unscathed (+).  For example, positioning candidates on stage by poll numbers makes for good television, but for the earliest debates consideration might be given to random positioning.  The idea of single issue debates, discussed extensively on subject of climate change, might be helpful in getting deeper into issues].

Sept. 24, 2019 in New York, NY - Business Insider Debate

Oct. 26, 2019 in Nashville, TN - Conversation at Politicon (>)

Oct. 28, 2019 in Detroit, MI - Republican Presidential Debate at Forbes Under 30 Summit

Mar. 4, 2020 in Chicago, IL - Open President Debate hosted by Free and Equal Elections and Open the Debates