Early voting has started in a number of states (>), and the days until Election Day, November 5, are dwindling rapidly. The presidential race is seen as very close and likely to hinge on seven swing states: GA, NC, PA, MI, WI, AZ and NV (+). With very few persuadable voters left, the campaigns are focusing on get out the vote efforts. Voters face a choice between the Democratic ticket of Vice President Kamala Harris, 59, and running mate Gov. Tim Walz, 60, the Republican ticket of former President Donald J. Trump, 78, and running mate Sen. JD Vance, 40, and a number of third party and Independent candidates. The two major candidates differ widely in character and temperament and in the visions they are offering, for example on the economy (+).
Harris advocates "a new way forward" and an "opportunity economy," promotes a message of freedom, and argues she can lead America to a brighter future. She is the "candidate of joy." The Harris campaign and the DNC have raised $1 billion since she entered the race. Harris' campaign says she is "the clear underdog." Among Harris' challenges are countering Republican attempts to paint her as radical leftist ("Comrade Kamala") and weathering Trump's continual stream of insults. Although Harris did well in the Sept. 10 debate and has been doing more interviews (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6), some of the early excitement has faded. Running mate "Coach Walz" adds a dose of Midwestern decency and folksiness to the ticket.
Trump presents a dark message of what has happened to America under three and a half years of the Biden-Harris administration. Prior to the Sept. 10 debate, the Trump campaign claimed it had the momentum. Trump's candidacy is fraught with questions about his personality, age and cognitive functioning, legal worries, and his connection to the "Project 2025" agenda. Sen. Vance was initially seen as a liability to the ticket, but the Ohioan found a role dogging Harris on the campaign trail and turned in a sharp debate performance.
There are alternatives. None of the non-major candidates has a chance of winning even one electoral vote, let alone the requisite 270, but they could affect the outcome in close states. Nationally, Democrats have put significant resources into impeding third party and independent candidates' efforts to gain ballot access and to painting them as "spoilers" who will hand the election to Trump (+), while Republican-aligned figures have quietly helped these candidates with ballot access.
>Free & Equal Election Foundation is organizing a debate between non-major candidates on Oct. 23 in Los Angeles (+).
- -The leading alternative candidate, independent Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., 70, suspended his campaign on Aug. 23 after months of hard work on ballot access and endorsed Trump, but his name will remain on the ballot in about 40 states. Kennedy, running with Nicole Shanahan, had sought present an alternative to "the broken two party system and the corporate corruption of our government."
- -The Libertarian Party, at its convention May 23-26 in Washington, DC, selected activist Chase Oliver, 39, and economist and retired police officer Mike ter Maat as their ticket.
- -The Green
Party held its convention and annual
meeting virtually Aug. 15-18, and nominated
Dr. Jill Stein, 74, who was the
party's nominee in 2012 and 2016; she
selected Dr. Butch Ware, a historian of
Africa and Islam, as her running mate.
The Stein campaign will be on the
ballot in 37 states and DC, has write-in status in 8
states, is challenging in NV and GA, and will not be
on in IN, SD and OK.
- -Independent candidate Cornel West, 71, running with Melina Abdullah, has qualified for the ballot in ten states, with six more pending, and will be an official write-in candidate in 26 states; he claims "the largest write-in campaign ever."
- -The Constitution
Party, meeting April 24-27 in Salt
Lake City, selected Randall Terry/Stephen
Broden; however a dissident ticket of Joel
Skousen/Rik Combs will be on the ballot in at
least three states.
- -Other parties and candidates have achieved ballot access in small numbers of states. In many states, ballot access for third parties depends upon their presidential candidates' showings on Nov. 5.
Campaign Finance and Where is the Money Going
Campaigns and outside groups are raising and spending hundreds of millions of dollars. Much of the money goes to broadcast advertising. AdImpact reported that as of Aug. 23 it had tracked "$778M in Presidential ad spending" since Super Tuesday and "$428M in future Presidential ad reservations;" the group projected "the Presidential general election to reach $2.16B." Much of the spending focused on the seven battleground states, headed by Pennsylvania. Democrats led in spending in all seven of the states. The ground campaign is also significant. The Harris campaign inherited the sizable general election infrastructure the Biden campaign built out in key states and has enjoyed record-breaking fundraising. Harris and the Democrats have more than 312 coordinated offices and 2,000 coordinated staff (1, 2, 3, 4). Compared to the Democrats' organization, there are significantly fewer Trump Force 47 offices and staff (+), and there are many reports that the Trump campaign and RNC are outsourcing (1, 2, 3) a significant portion of field organizing work to conservative groups such as Turning Point Action and its "Chase the Vote" effort (>). The Republican organization appears thin but should not be dismissed entirely. The RNC has also focused significant resources on its "Protect the Vote" poll watching effort (>).
Election Law Maneuvering
Seeking to secure an advantage in the Nov. 5, 2024 election, partisans are challenging of many aspects of election law.
See: RNC's Protect the Vote | Democracy Docket [Democratic] | Election Law Blog [Rick Hasen]
Disinformation, Misinformation, and Threats to Election Security
Threats to the integrity of our elections include foreign influence operations, cyberattacks, domestic rumor-mongering, and intimidation of voters and election officials. The National Association of Secretaries of State's #TrustedInfo2024 provides accurate information on election processes, procedures and security. At the federal level, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI), the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), and the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) are involved in identifying and countering threats (+). CISA coordinates with election officials to counter risks (see #Protect2024), and the U.S. Department of Justice is working to protect voting rights and combat election threats. On Sept. 4, 2024 DOJ announced "the ongoing seizure of 32 internet domains used in Russian government-directed foreign malign influence campaigns (+)" as well as the indictment of two Russian nationals (+). Also on Sept. 4, DOJ's Election Threats Task Force, which was formed in June 2021 and focuses on threats against election workers, held a meeting. Meanwhile, on Capitol Hill, on May 9 and Sept, 18, 2024, the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence has held "Update on Foreign Threats to 2024 Elections" open hearings. In May the Committee on House Administration held a hearing on “American Confidence in Elections: Preventing Noncitizen Voting and Other Foreign Interference.” (Other reports: 1, 2). The Microsoft Threat Analysis Center has produced several detailed reports. Additionally, a new bipartisan group of former elected officials, Democracy Defense Project, is working "to defend the transparency, safety, security and validity of our nation's electoral system."
Other Races
In addition to the presidential contest, 34 U.S. Senate seats, all 435 U.S. House seats, 11 governorships, other state executive offices, 5,800-plus state legislative seats, will be on Nov. 5, 2024 ballots. Some of these races are very competitive but many others are noncompetitive, and some candidates have not even drawn challengers. About 150 state measures (initiatives and referenda) and myriad local contests will also be on Nov. 5 ballots.
2024 Campaign Literature | Framing the Issues
Conventions
CONSTITUTION –
2024 Presidential Nominating Convention [Salt Lake City, UT]
LIBERTARIANS – May 23-26, 2024
2024 Libertarian National Convention [Washington, DC]
REPUBLICANS – July 15-18, 2024
2024 Republican National Convention [Milwaukee, WI]
[note: Paris 2024 Olympic Games – July 26-Aug. 11, 2024]
GREENS –
Annual National Meeting & Presidential Nominating Convention [virtual]
DEMOCRATS – Aug. 19-22, 2024
2024 Democratic National Convention [Chicago, IL]
Debates
Vice Presidential Debate: CBS News ...Oct. 1, 2024.
Second Presidential Debate: ABC News ...Sept. 10, 2024.
First Presidential Debate: CNN ...June 27, 2024.
FREE & EQUAL ELECTIONS
Presidential:
Los Angeles, CA ...Oct. 23, 2024
Las Vegas, NV ...July 12, 2024
Transition
Aug. 16, 2024 press release - "President Donald J. Trump Announces Presidential Transition"
U.S. General Services Administration
CRS: "Presidential Transition Act: Provisions and Funding" (02/24)
Project 2025 (conservative)
2024 Candidates
Democratic
Vice President Kamala Harris/Gov. Tim Walz: The
White House ...@VP
| fb/VicePresident
|| Harris for
President ...@KamalaHarris
| fb/KamalaHarris.
C-SPAN
| FEC
|| timeline.
More Independent Groups: Reagan,
Bush, McCain & Romney Alumni for Harris.
Walz: Governor's
Office ...fb/GovTimWalz
| @Tim_Walz.
C-SPAN.
to July 21, 2024: President Joe
Biden/Vice President Kamala Harris: The
White House | Biden for President.
Grassroots: Granite
State Write-In. Pro-Biden Super PACs:
Granite for America [NH] | Unite the Country.
More Independent Groups: Building Back
Together (501(c)(4)). Opposition: Committee to Defeat the
President. C-SPAN - Biden,
Harris
| FEC.
...@joebiden
| fb/joebiden
Republican
- Former President Donald J. Trump/U.S. Sen. JD Vance: Donald J. Trump for President 2024, Inc. | Trump Force 47 | The Trump Organization. ...TruthSocial/RealDonaldTrump | fb/DonaldTrump. C-SPAN | FEC || timeline.
- Pro-Trump Super PAC: MAGA Inc. |
America PAC.
More Independent Groups: Pastors for Trump.
Opposition: Lincoln
Project | Republican
Voters Against Trump.
- Vance: U.S. Senate
...fb/senatorvance
|| @JDVance.
C-SPAN.
former Republican
candidates...
Independent
suspended campaign and
endorsed Trump Aug. 23, 2024: Robert F. Kennedy,
Jr./Nicole Shanahan: Team
Kennedy. Pro-Kennedy Super PACs: American
Values 2024 | Heal the Divide, Inc.
PAC. Another Independent Group: People4Kennedy.com.
Opposition: Clear Choice PAC.
C-SPAN
| FEC.
...@RobertKennedyJr
| fb/rfkjr
Shanahan: Bia-Echo
Foundation | @NicoleShanahan
...Indep. from Oct. 9, 2023; formerly
pursued Democratic nomination
Dr. Cornel West/Dr. Melina Abdullah: Cornel West for President
| Dr. Cornel West.
C-SPAN
| FEC.
...@CornelWest
| fb/drcornelwest
Abdullah: DocMellyMel.
...@DocMellyMel
...Indep. from Oct. 5, 2023; formerly pursued Green
nomination
Libertarian
Chase Oliver/Mike ter Maat: Chase Oliver for President. ...@ChaseforLiberty | fb/ChaseforLiberty
ter Maat: Mike ter Maat for President Committee. ....@terMaatMike | fb/mike.termaat.7311
Green - PSCC
Ware: UCSB
[Cornel West pursued the Green Party nomination June 13-Oct. 5, 2023, then opted to run as an Independent]
- Constitution - Presidential Nominating Convention
- Randall
Terry/Stephen Broden: Randall Terry for
President | RandallTerry.com.
...@randallterry
dissident ticket (UT, NV, ID) Joel Skousen/Rik Combs: Joel Skousen
- More
Opposition: American Bridge 21st Century | RNC - Fact Check Biden
More Useful Links
Taegan Goddard's Political WireC-SPAN - Campaign 2024
Politico - 2024 Elections
NBC News - Decision 2024
ABC News - Elections
CNN - Politics
CBS News - Politics
FOX News - Politics
FRONTLINE: The Choice 2024
Frontloading HQ (Josh Putnam)
4president.org (Mike Dec)
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Daryl Cagle's Political Cartoonists Index
Freedom Forum - Today's Front Pages
Polling Report - Election 2024
AdImpact
Ballot Access News (Richard Winger)
Election Law Blog (Rick Hasen)
Microtargeting (Andrew Arenge)
-
Political Parties
- Democratic National Committee | fb/democrats | @thedemocrats | @harrisonjaime
- Republican National Committee | fb/GOP | @GOP | @ChairmanWhatley
- Libertarian National Committee | fb/libertarians | @lpnational
- Green Party of the United States | fb/GreenPartyUS | @GreenPartyUS
- Forward Party | fb/OfficialForwardParty | @Fwd_Party
- Third Party Watch
- DEMOCRATS: The Democratic National Convention took place in Chicago on Aug. 19-22. Democrats emerged energized and united behind their nominee Vice President Kamala Harris, 59 and running mate Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, 60. President Joe Biden, 81, had been on track to be the nominee, but, following his disastrous performance in the June 27 CNN presidential debate in Atlanta, he faced a steady drip, drip, drip of calls for him to step aside. Biden was defiant for three-plus weeks as Democrats around the country, from elected officials to donors to grassroots activists, engaged in widespread discussion of various scenarios, including the possibility of an open process. Biden finally bowed out on July 21, stating in a letter, "I believe it is in the best interest of my party and the country for me to stand down and to focus solely on fulfilling my duties as President for the remainder of my term." Biden then endorsed Harris to be the nominee, and things came together very quickly for Harris. Harris enjoyed a honeymoon period of endorsements, energy, volunteers, and fundraising (+), started to outline some policy proposals (+), but drew some criticism for avoiding interviews and not taking reporters' questions (+). Harris announced her choice of Walz on Aug. 6 and the two did a battleground state tour (Aug. 6-10), drawing large crowds.
- REPUBLICANS: The Republican
National Convention took place in Milwaukee on July
15-18. Republicans, led by former President Donald J.
Trump, 78, and U.S. Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH), 39, emerged
motivated, confident and united, but Biden's exit and the
ascendance of Harris reset the race, forcing Republicans
to recalibrate their message (+).
The July 13 assassination attempt against Trump
at a rally in Pennsylvania was a shock to our democracy,
but Trump rebounded quickly, appearing at the Convention
with a bandaged ear. On July 15 he announced Vance
as his running mate. Trump's legal worries have not
disappeared, but he has benefited from the U.S. Supreme
Court's July 1 ruling in Trump v. United States (>),
and U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon's July 15 dismissal
of the classified documents case. Nonetheless, on
Sept. 18 Trump will face sentencing in People v. Donald J.
Trump, the "hush money" trial (1,
2)
where on May 30 a jury in New York found him guilty on all
34 felony counts. Republicans, viewing this as
"lawfare," rallied
around him.
-
Primaries
Although both faced existential questions about their candidacies, President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump dominated their respective primary contests. For Biden the main issue was whether he was too old, but his incumbent advantage discouraged any strong challengers from getting in the race. The uncommitted vote movement, formed in protest of the administration's support of Israel's war in Gaza, did attract some support. Trump, 77, faced 88 felony counts in four cases; but he handily dispatched a dozen challengers. The March 5, 2024 Super Tuesday contests effectively decided the major party nominations. FROM THE PRIMARIES >
Context
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