Carries All Seven Battleground States
Republicans Take the Senate and—Narrowly—Hold the House
HARRIS-WALZ: Organization | Travels | Timelines - Harris, Walz | Memos
Vice President Kamala Harris, 60, the fill-in candidate after President Joe Biden stepped aside on July 21, generated incredible excitement among Democrats in the first month of her campaign. She started as "candidate of joy" promoting a message of freedom and advocating "a new way forward" and an "opportunity economy" (+). The Harris campaign and the DNC raised more than $1 billion after she entered the race. Running mate "Coach Walz," 60, added a dose of Midwestern decency and folksiness to the ticket, but was outmatched in the Oct. 1 debate. Harris' campaign said she was "the clear underdog," but they appeared encouraged by late breaking voters. Among Harris' challenges in her short campaign were countering Republican attempts to paint her as radical leftist ("Comrade Kamala"), distinguishing herself from President Biden, concerns about inflation and the economy, and the fact that she was a woman seeking the highest office. With extensive preparation, Harris did well, as in the Sept. 10 debate, but she was not a natural campaigner and not great in interviews (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8). The early excitement faded.
TRUMP-VANCE: Organization | Travels | Timelines - Trump, Vance | Memos
Former President Donald J. Trump, 78, presented a dark message of what has happened to America under three and a half years of the Biden-Harris administration. The Trump campaign weathered a rough couple of months following Biden's exit, but, frequently citing poll numbers projected confidence and claimed to be on the verge of winning heading into Election Day. Trump survived two assassination attempts. His candidacy was fraught with questions about his personality, age and cognitive functioning, legal worries, and his connection to the "Project 2025" agenda. Sen. JD Vance, 40, was initially seen as a liability to the ticket, but the Ohioan proved to be a smooth talker and turned in a sharp debate performance. Trump won on three key issues—inflation (which had declined substantially, but the effects of which still lingered), immigration, and the wars in Gaza and Ukraine. Also critical was the right-wing echo chamber of Fox News and other media outlets, bolstered by Elon Musk's X.
More than $2.6 billion. Open Secrets predicted (Oct. 8) that "the total cost of the 2024 federal election will reach $15.9 billion, on track to be the costliest ever." For the presidential race, the Trump and Harris campaigns and outside groups raised more than $2.6 billion. Harris enjoyed record breaking fundraising; her campaign and supporting outside groups had the advantage: $1.64 billion to $981.0 million for Trump and his supporting groups (>). Much of the money went to broadcast advertising. AdImpact reported that as of Oct. 7 it had tracked $2.1 billion in spending and future reservations in the presidential race, $1.3 billion from the Democrats and $768 million from the Republicans. Most of this spending focused on the seven battleground states, and Pennsylvania tops the list. Democrats led in spending in all seven of the states. The ground campaign was also significant. The Harris campaign inherited the sizable general election infrastructure the Biden campaign built out in key states. Harris and the Democrats had more than 312 coordinated offices and 2,000 coordinated staff (1, 2, 3, 4). Compared to the Democrats' organization, there were significantly fewer Trump Force 47 offices and staff (+), and the Trump campaign and RNC are outsourced (1, 2, 3) a significant portion of field organizing work to conservative groups such as Elon Musk's America PAC and Turning Point Action and its "Chase the Vote" effort (>). The RNC also focused significant resources on its "Protect the Vote" poll watching effort (>).
There were alternatives, but, as expected, they achieved meager results. None of the non-major candidates had a chance of winning even one electoral vote, let alone the requisite 270, but there were concerns they could affect the outcome in close states. Nationally, Democrats put significant resources into impeding third party and independent candidates' efforts to gain ballot access and to painting them as "spoilers" who would hand the election to Trump (+), while Republican-aligned figures quietly helped several of these candidates with ballot access.
- -The leading alternative candidate, independent Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., 70, suspended his campaign on Aug. 23 after months of hard work on ballot access and endorsed Trump, but his name remains on the ballot in about 34 states. (Of the battlegrounds, he remains on the ballot in MI and WI, but is not on in AZ, GA, NV, NC, and PA). Kennedy, running with Nicole Shanahan, had sought present an alternative to "the broken two party system and the corporate corruption of our government."
- -The Libertarian
Party, at its convention May
23-26 in Washington, DC, selected activist
Chase Oliver, 39, and economist
and retired police officer Mike ter Maat
as their ticket. Oliver was on the
ballot in 47 states.
- -The Green Party held its convention and annual meeting virtually Aug. 15-18, and nominated Dr. Jill Stein, 74, who was the party's nominee in 2012 and 2016; she selected Dr. Butch Ware, a historian of Africa and Islam, as her running mate. The Stein campaign was on the ballot in 38 states and DC, has write-in status in 8 states, and was not on the ballot or write-in in IN, SD, OK, and, controversially, NV (>).
- -The Party
for Socialism and Liberation, running
Claudia De la Cruz and Karina
Garcia, did surprisingly well in ballot
access, and was on the ballot in 19 states
along with write-in status in 23
states.
- -Independent candidate Cornel West, 71, running with Melina Abdullah, has qualified for the ballot in 16 states and was an official write-in candidate in 21 states.
- -The Constitution
Party, meeting April 24-27 in
Salt Lake City, selected Randall Terry/Stephen
Broden; the ticket was on the ballot in 12
states, while a dissident ticket of Joel
Skousen/Rik Combs is on the ballot in NV
and UT.
- -Other parties and candidates achieved ballot access in small numbers of states. In many states, ballot access for third parties depends upon their presidential candidates' showings on Nov. 5.
It's not just the presidential race. Thirty-four U.S. Senate seats, all 435 U.S. House seats, 11 governorships, other state executive offices, 5,800-plus state legislative seats, were on Nov. 5, 2024 ballots. Some of these races were very competitive but many others were noncompetitive, and some candidates did not even draw challengers. About 150 state measures (initiatives and referenda) and myriad local contests were also Nov. 5 ballots.
Conventions
CONSTITUTION –
2024 Presidential Nominating Convention [Salt Lake City, UT]
LIBERTARIANS – May 23-26, 2024
2024 Libertarian National Convention [Washington, DC]
REPUBLICANS – July 15-18, 2024
2024 Republican National Convention [Milwaukee, WI]
[note: Paris 2024 Olympic Games – July 26-Aug. 11, 2024]
GREENS –
Annual National Meeting & Presidential Nominating Convention [virtual]
DEMOCRATS – Aug. 19-22, 2024
2024 Democratic National Convention [Chicago, IL]
Debates
Vice Presidential Debate: CBS News ...Oct. 1, 2024.
Second Presidential Debate: ABC News ...Sept. 10, 2024.
First Presidential Debate: CNN ...June 27, 2024.
FREE & EQUAL ELECTIONS
Presidential:
Los Angeles, CA ...Oct. 23, 2024 (+)
Las Vegas, NV ...July 12, 2024
Transition
Aug. 16, 2024 press release - "President Donald J. Trump Announces Presidential Transition"
U.S. General Services Administration
CRS: "Presidential Transition Act: Provisions and Funding" (02/24)
Project 2025 (conservative)
2024 Candidates
Democratic
Vice President Kamala Harris/Gov. Tim Walz: The
White House ...@VP
| fb/VicePresident
|| Harris for
President ...@KamalaHarris
| fb/KamalaHarris.
C-SPAN
| FEC
|| timeline.
More Independent Groups: Reagan,
Bush, McCain & Romney Alumni for Harris.
Walz: Governor's
Office ...fb/GovTimWalz
| @Tim_Walz.
C-SPAN.
to July 21, 2024: President Joe
Biden/Vice President Kamala Harris: The
White House | Biden for President.
Grassroots: Granite
State Write-In. Pro-Biden Super PACs:
Granite for America [NH] | Unite the Country.
More Independent Groups: Building Back
Together (501(c)(4)). Opposition: Committee to Defeat the
President. C-SPAN - Biden,
Harris
| FEC.
...@joebiden
| fb/joebiden
Republican
- Former President Donald J. Trump/U.S. Sen. JD Vance: Donald J. Trump for President 2024, Inc. | Trump Force 47 | The Trump Organization. ...TruthSocial/RealDonaldTrump | fb/DonaldTrump. C-SPAN | FEC || timeline.
- Pro-Trump Super PAC: MAGA Inc. |
America PAC.
More Independent Groups: Pastors for Trump.
Opposition: Lincoln
Project | Republican
Voters Against Trump.
- Vance: U.S. Senate
...fb/senatorvance
|| @JDVance.
C-SPAN.
former Republican
candidates...
Independent
suspended campaign and
endorsed Trump Aug. 23, 2024: Robert F. Kennedy,
Jr./Nicole Shanahan: Team
Kennedy. Pro-Kennedy Super PACs: American
Values 2024 | Heal the Divide, Inc.
PAC. Another Independent Group: People4Kennedy.com.
Opposition: Clear Choice PAC.
C-SPAN
| FEC.
...@RobertKennedyJr
| fb/rfkjr
Shanahan: Bia-Echo
Foundation | @NicoleShanahan
...Indep. from Oct. 9, 2023; formerly
pursued Democratic nomination
Dr. Cornel West/Dr. Melina Abdullah: Cornel West for President
| Dr. Cornel West.
C-SPAN
| FEC.
...@CornelWest
| fb/drcornelwest
Abdullah: DocMellyMel.
...@DocMellyMel
...Indep. from Oct. 5, 2023; formerly pursued Green
nomination
Libertarian
Chase Oliver/Mike ter Maat: Chase Oliver for President. ...@ChaseforLiberty | fb/ChaseforLiberty
ter Maat: Mike ter Maat for President Committee. ....@terMaatMike | fb/mike.termaat.7311
Green - PSCC
Ware: UCSB
[Cornel West pursued the Green Party nomination June 13-Oct. 5, 2023, then opted to run as an Independent]
- Constitution - Presidential Nominating Convention
- Randall
Terry/Stephen Broden: Randall Terry for
President | RandallTerry.com.
...@randallterry
dissident ticket (UT, NV, ID) Joel Skousen/Rik Combs: Joel Skousen
- More
Opposition: American Bridge 21st Century | RNC - Fact Check Biden
More Useful Links
Taegan Goddard's Political WireC-SPAN - Campaign 2024
Politico - 2024 Elections
NBC News - Decision 2024
ABC News - Elections
CNN - Politics
CBS News - Politics
FOX News - Politics
FRONTLINE: The Choice 2024
Frontloading HQ (Josh Putnam)
4president.org (Mike Dec)
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Daryl Cagle's Political Cartoonists Index
Freedom Forum - Today's Front Pages
Polling Report - Election 2024
AdImpact
Ballot Access News (Richard Winger)
Election Law Blog (Rick Hasen)
Microtargeting (Andrew Arenge)
-
Political Parties
- Democratic National Committee | fb/democrats | @thedemocrats | @harrisonjaime
- Republican National Committee | fb/GOP | @GOP | @ChairmanWhatley
- Libertarian National Committee | fb/libertarians | @lpnational
- Green Party of the United States | fb/GreenPartyUS | @GreenPartyUS
- Forward Party | fb/OfficialForwardParty | @Fwd_Party
- Third Party Watch
- DEMOCRATS: The Democratic National Convention took place in Chicago on Aug. 19-22. Democrats emerged energized and united behind their nominee Vice President Kamala Harris, 59 and running mate Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, 60. President Joe Biden, 81, had been on track to be the nominee, but, following his disastrous performance in the June 27 CNN presidential debate in Atlanta, he faced a steady drip, drip, drip of calls for him to step aside. Biden was defiant for three-plus weeks as Democrats around the country, from elected officials to donors to grassroots activists, engaged in widespread discussion of various scenarios, including the possibility of an open process. Biden finally bowed out on July 21, stating in a letter, "I believe it is in the best interest of my party and the country for me to stand down and to focus solely on fulfilling my duties as President for the remainder of my term." Biden then endorsed Harris to be the nominee, and things came together very quickly for Harris. Harris enjoyed a honeymoon period of endorsements, energy, volunteers, and fundraising (+), started to outline some policy proposals (+), but drew some criticism for avoiding interviews and not taking reporters' questions (+). Harris announced her choice of Walz on Aug. 6 and the two did a battleground state tour (Aug. 6-10), drawing large crowds.
- REPUBLICANS: The Republican
National Convention took place in Milwaukee on July
15-18. Republicans, led by former President Donald J.
Trump, 78, and U.S. Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH), 39, emerged
motivated, confident and united, but Biden's exit and the
ascendance of Harris reset the race, forcing Republicans
to recalibrate their message (+).
The July 13 assassination attempt against Trump
at a rally in Pennsylvania was a shock to our democracy,
but Trump rebounded quickly, appearing at the Convention
with a bandaged ear. On July 15 he announced Vance
as his running mate. Trump's legal worries have not
disappeared, but he has benefited from the U.S. Supreme
Court's July 1 ruling in Trump v. United States (>),
and U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon's July 15 dismissal
of the classified documents case. Nonetheless, on
Sept. 18 Trump will face sentencing in People v. Donald J.
Trump, the "hush money" trial (1,
2)
where on May 30 a jury in New York found him guilty on all
34 felony counts. Republicans, viewing this as
"lawfare," rallied
around him.
-
Primaries
Although both faced existential questions about their candidacies, President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump dominated their respective primary contests. For Biden the main issue was whether he was too old, but his incumbent advantage discouraged any strong challengers from getting in the race. The uncommitted vote movement, formed in protest of the administration's support of Israel's war in Gaza, did attract some support. Trump, 77, faced 88 felony counts in four cases; but he handily dispatched a dozen challengers. The March 5, 2024 Super Tuesday contests effectively decided the major party nominations. FROM THE PRIMARIES >
Context
Copyright © 2023, 2024 Eric M. Appleman/Democracy in Action. All rights reserved.