WHAT'S HOT (10/11...25 days to
Election Day):
Early voting has started in a number of
states (>),
and the days until Election Day, November 5, are
dwindling rapidly. The presidential race is
seen as very close and likely to hinge on seven swing
states: GA, NC, PA, MI, WI, AZ and NV (+).
With very few persuadable voters
left, the campaigns are focusing on get out the
vote efforts. Voters
face a choice between the Democratic ticket of Vice
President Kamala Harris, 59, and running mate Gov. Tim
Walz, 60, the Republican ticket of former President
Donald J. Trump, 78, and running mate Sen. JD Vance, 40,
and a number of third party and Independent candidates.
The two major candidates
differ widely in character and temperament and
in the visions they are offering, for example on
the economy (+).
Harris
advocates "a new way forward" and an "opportunity
economy," promotes a message of freedom, and
argues she can lead America to a brighter future.
She is the "candidate of joy." The Harris campaign
and the DNC have raised $1 billion since she entered the
race. Harris' campaign says she is "the
clear underdog." Among Harris' challenges
are countering Republican attempts to paint her as
radical leftist ("Comrade Kamala") and weathering
Trump's continual stream of insults. Although
Harris did well in the Sept. 10 debate and has been
doing more interviews (1,
2, 3, 4, 5,
6),
some of the early excitement has faded. Running
mate "Coach Walz"
adds a dose of Midwestern decency and folksiness to the
ticket.
Trump
presents a dark message of what has happened to America
under three and a half years of the Biden-Harris
administration. Prior to the Sept. 10 debate, the
Trump campaign claimed it had the momentum.
Trump's candidacy is fraught with questions about his
personality, age and cognitive functioning, legal
worries, and his connection to the "Project 2025"
agenda. Sen. Vance
was initially seen as a liability to the ticket, but
the Ohioan found a role dogging Harris on the campaign
trail and turned in a sharp debate performance.
There are alternatives. None of the
non-major candidates has a chance of winning even one
electoral vote, let alone the requisite 270, but they
could affect the outcome in close states. Nationally,
Democrats have put significant resources into impeding
third party and independent candidates' efforts to
gain ballot access and to painting them as "spoilers"
who will hand the election to Trump (+), while
Republican-aligned figures have quietly helped these
candidates with ballot access.
>Free &
Equal Election
Foundation is
organizing a
debate between
non-major
candidates on
Oct. 23 in Los
Angeles (+).
- -The leading alternative candidate,
independent Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., 70, suspended
his campaign on Aug. 23 after
months of hard work on ballot
access and endorsed
Trump, but his name will remain on the
ballot in about 40 states. Kennedy, running
with Nicole Shanahan, had sought present an
alternative to "the broken two party system and
the corporate corruption of our
government."
- -The Libertarian
Party, at its convention May 23-26 in
Washington, DC, selected activist Chase Oliver,
39, and economist and retired police officer Mike
ter Maat as their ticket.
- -The Green
Party held its convention and annual
meeting virtually Aug. 15-18, and nominated
Dr. Jill Stein, 74, who was the
party's nominee in 2012 and 2016; she
selected Dr. Butch Ware, a historian of
Africa and Islam, as her running mate.
The Stein campaign will be on the
ballot in 37 states and DC, has write-in status in 8
states, is challenging in NV and GA, and will not be
on in IN, SD and OK.
- -Independent
candidate Cornel West, 71,
running with Melina Abdullah, has qualified
for the ballot in ten states, with six more
pending, and will be an official write-in
candidate in 26 states; he claims "the largest
write-in campaign ever."
- -The Constitution
Party, meeting April 24-27 in Salt
Lake City, selected Randall Terry/Stephen
Broden; however a dissident ticket of Joel
Skousen/Rik Combs will be on the ballot in at
least three states.
- -Other parties and candidates have
achieved ballot access in small numbers of states.
In
many states, ballot access for third parties depends
upon their presidential candidates' showings on Nov.
5.
Campaign Finance and Where is the Money Going
Campaigns and outside groups are raising and spending
hundreds of millions of dollars.
Much of the money goes to broadcast advertising.
AdImpact reported that as of Aug. 23 it had tracked
"$778M in Presidential ad spending" since Super
Tuesday and "$428M in future Presidential ad
reservations;" the group projected "the Presidential
general election to reach $2.16B." Much of the
spending focused on the seven battleground states,
headed by Pennsylvania. Democrats led in
spending in all seven of the states. The ground
campaign is also significant. The Harris
campaign inherited
the sizable general election infrastructure the
Biden campaign built out in key states and
has enjoyed record-breaking
fundraising.
Harris and the Democrats have more
than 312 coordinated offices and
2,000 coordinated staff (1,
2,
3,
4).
Compared to the Democrats'
organization, there are significantly fewer Trump
Force 47 offices and staff (+), and there
are many reports that the Trump campaign and RNC are
outsourcing (1,
2,
3)
a significant portion of field organizing work to
conservative groups such as Turning Point Action and
its "Chase the Vote" effort (>).
The Republican
organization appears thin but should not be
dismissed entirely. The
RNC has also focused significant resources on its
"Protect the Vote" poll watching effort (>).
Election Law Maneuvering
Seeking to secure an advantage in
the Nov. 5, 2024 election, partisans are
challenging of many aspects of election
law.
See: RNC's
Protect the Vote
| Democracy
Docket [Democratic]
| Election
Law Blog [Rick Hasen]
Disinformation, Misinformation, and
Threats to Election Security
Threats to the integrity of our
elections include foreign influence
operations, cyberattacks, domestic
rumor-mongering, and intimidation of
voters and election officials. The
National Association of Secretaries of
State's #TrustedInfo2024
provides accurate information on
election processes, procedures and
security. At the federal level, the
Office of the Director of National
Intelligence (ODNI), the Federal Bureau
of Investigation (FBI), and the
Cybersecurity and Infrastructure
Security Agency (CISA) are involved in
identifying and countering threats (+).
CISA coordinates with election officials
to counter risks (see #Protect2024),
and the
U.S.
Department of Justice is
working to protect voting rights
and combat election threats.
On Sept. 4, 2024 DOJ announced "the ongoing seizure of
32 internet domains used in Russian government-directed
foreign malign influence campaigns (+)" as well as the
indictment of two Russian nationals (+).
Also on Sept. 4, DOJ's Election Threats
Task Force, which was formed in June 2021 and focuses
on threats against election workers, held a
meeting. Meanwhile, on Capitol Hill, on
May 9 and Sept, 18, 2024, the Senate Select Committee
on Intelligence has held "Update on
Foreign Threats to 2024 Elections" open hearings.
In May the Committee on House Administration
held a hearing
on “American Confidence in Elections:
Preventing Noncitizen Voting and Other Foreign
Interference.” (Other reports: 1,
2).
The Microsoft
Threat Analysis Center has produced several
detailed reports. Additionally, a
new bipartisan group of former elected officials, Democracy
Defense Project, is working "to defend the
transparency, safety, security and validity of our
nation's electoral system."
Other Races
In addition to the presidential contest, 34 U.S. Senate seats, all
435 U.S. House seats, 11 governorships, other
state executive offices, 5,800-plus state legislative
seats, will be on Nov. 5, 2024 ballots. Some of
these races are very competitive but many others are
noncompetitive, and some candidates have not even
drawn challengers. About 150 state measures
(initiatives and referenda) and myriad local contests
will also be on Nov. 5 ballots.
2024
Campaign Literature | Framing
the Issues
Conventions
CONSTITUTION
– April 17-20, 2024changed
to April 24-27, 2024
2024
Presidential
Nominating
Convention
[Salt Lake City, UT]
LIBERTARIANS – May 23-26, 2024
2024
Libertarian National Convention
[Washington, DC]
REPUBLICANS – July 15-18, 2024
2024
Republican National Convention [Milwaukee,
WI]
[note: Paris 2024 Olympic Games – July 26-Aug.
11, 2024]
GREENS – July
11-14, 2024changed
to Aug. 15-18, 2024
Annual
National Meeting &
Presidential Nominating
Convention [virtual]
DEMOCRATS – Aug. 19-22, 2024
2024
Democratic National Convention [Chicago,
IL]
Debates
Vice
Presidential Debate: CBS News ...Oct. 1, 2024.
Second
Presidential Debate: ABC News ...Sept. 10, 2024.
First
Presidential Debate: CNN ...June 27, 2024.
FREE & EQUAL ELECTIONS
Presidential:
Los Angeles, CA ...Oct. 23, 2024
Las Vegas, NV ...July 12, 2024
Transition
Aug. 16, 2024 press
release - "President Donald J. Trump Announces Presidential
Transition"
U.S.
General Services Administration
CRS:
"Presidential Transition Act: Provisions and Funding"
(02/24)
Project 2025 (conservative)
2024 Candidates
Democratic
Vice President Kamala Harris/Gov. Tim Walz: The
White House ...@VP
| fb/VicePresident
|| Harris for
President ...@KamalaHarris
| fb/KamalaHarris.
C-SPAN
| FEC
|| timeline.
More Independent Groups: Reagan,
Bush, McCain & Romney Alumni for Harris.
Walz: Governor's
Office ...fb/GovTimWalz
| @Tim_Walz.
C-SPAN.
to July 21, 2024: President Joe
Biden/Vice President Kamala Harris: The
White House | Biden for President.
Grassroots: Granite
State Write-In. Pro-Biden Super PACs:
Granite for America [NH] | Unite the Country.
More Independent Groups: Building Back
Together (501(c)(4)). Opposition: Committee to Defeat the
President. C-SPAN - Biden,
Harris
| FEC.
...@joebiden
| fb/joebiden
Republican
former Republican
candidates...
Independent
suspended campaign and
endorsed Trump Aug. 23, 2024: Robert F. Kennedy,
Jr./Nicole Shanahan: Team
Kennedy. Pro-Kennedy Super PACs: American
Values 2024 | Heal the Divide, Inc.
PAC. Another Independent Group: People4Kennedy.com.
Opposition: Clear Choice PAC.
C-SPAN
| FEC.
...@RobertKennedyJr
| fb/rfkjr
Shanahan: Bia-Echo
Foundation | @NicoleShanahan
...Indep. from Oct. 9, 2023; formerly
pursued Democratic nomination
Dr. Cornel West/Dr. Melina Abdullah: Cornel West for President
| Dr. Cornel West.
C-SPAN
| FEC.
...@CornelWest
| fb/drcornelwest
Abdullah: DocMellyMel.
...@DocMellyMel
...Indep. from Oct. 5, 2023; formerly pursued Green
nomination
Libertarian
Chase
Oliver/Mike ter Maat: Chase Oliver for
President. ...
@ChaseforLiberty
|
fb/ChaseforLiberty
ter Maat: Mike ter
Maat for President Committee. ....
@terMaatMike
|
fb/mike.termaat.7311
Green - PSCC
FEC
-
Candidates
for President
Opposition:
American Bridge 21st
Century |
RNC - Fact Check Biden
More Useful
Links
Taegan Goddard's
Political Wire
C-SPAN -
Campaign 2024
Politico
- 2024 Elections
NBC
News - Decision 2024
ABC News -
Elections
CNN - Politics
CBS News -
Politics
FOX News - Politics
FRONTLINE:
The Choice 2024
Frontloading HQ
(Josh Putnam)
4president.org (Mike
Dec)
Sabato's
Crystal Ball
Daryl Cagle's Political
Cartoonists Index
Freedom
Forum - Today's Front Pages
Polling
Report - Election 2024
AdImpact
Ballot Access News
(Richard Winger)
Election Law Blog (Rick
Hasen)
Microtargeting (Andrew
Arenge)
-
- DEMOCRATS: The Democratic
National Convention took place in Chicago on Aug.
19-22. Democrats emerged energized and united behind
their nominee Vice President Kamala Harris, 59 and running
mate Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, 60. President Joe
Biden, 81, had been on track to be the nominee, but,
following his disastrous performance in the June 27 CNN
presidential debate in Atlanta, he faced a
steady drip, drip, drip of calls for him to step aside.
Biden was defiant for three-plus weeks as Democrats around
the country, from elected officials to donors to
grassroots activists, engaged in widespread discussion of
various scenarios, including the possibility of an open
process. Biden finally bowed out on July 21, stating
in a letter, "I believe it is in the best interest of my
party and the country for me to stand down and to focus
solely on fulfilling my duties as President for the
remainder of my term." Biden then endorsed Harris to
be the nominee, and things came together very
quickly for Harris. Harris enjoyed a honeymoon
period of endorsements, energy, volunteers, and
fundraising (+),
started
to outline some policy proposals (+),
but drew some criticism for avoiding interviews and not
taking reporters' questions (+).
Harris announced
her choice of Walz on Aug. 6 and the two did a
battleground state tour (Aug. 6-10), drawing large
crowds.
- REPUBLICANS: The Republican
National Convention took place in Milwaukee on July
15-18. Republicans, led by former President Donald J.
Trump, 78, and U.S. Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH), 39, emerged
motivated, confident and united, but Biden's exit and the
ascendance of Harris reset the race, forcing Republicans
to recalibrate their message (+).
The July 13 assassination attempt against Trump
at a rally in Pennsylvania was a shock to our democracy,
but Trump rebounded quickly, appearing at the Convention
with a bandaged ear. On July 15 he announced Vance
as his running mate. Trump's legal worries have not
disappeared, but he has benefited from the U.S. Supreme
Court's July 1 ruling in Trump v. United States (>),
and U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon's July 15 dismissal
of the classified documents case. Nonetheless, on
Sept. 18 Trump will face sentencing in People v. Donald J.
Trump, the "hush money" trial (1,
2)
where on May 30 a jury in New York found him guilty on all
34 felony counts. Republicans, viewing this as
"lawfare," rallied
around him.
-
Primaries
Although both faced existential questions about their
candidacies, President Joe Biden and former President
Donald Trump dominated their respective primary
contests. For Biden the main issue was whether
he was too old, but his incumbent advantage
discouraged any strong challengers from getting in the
race. The uncommitted vote movement, formed in
protest of the administration's support of Israel's
war in Gaza, did attract some support. Trump,
77, faced 88 felony counts in four cases; but he
handily dispatched a dozen challengers. The
March 5, 2024 Super Tuesday contests effectively
decided the major party nominations.
FROM THE
PRIMARIES >
Context