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Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. Holds Cesar Chavez Day Celebration at Union Station    ...1 of 5 >
March 30, 2024 - Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. held a Cesar Chavez Day Celebration at Union Station in Los Angeles to launch the campaign's "Viva Kennedy 24" effort.  Before the speaking program, the all-female mariachi group Las Colibrí performed and attendee enjoyed Mexican food.  Although Kennedy's father, Robert F. Kennedy, was a friend of Chavez, members of Chavez's family were not represented and issued a statement backing President Joe Biden.  In his remarks to a crowd of 300-plus people, Kennedy said that while presumptive nominees President Joe Biden and former President Trump are very different in temperament and differ on culture war issues, "on the existential issues there is no difference."  As examples, he cited the $34 trillion national debt and the increasing toll of chronic diseases, issues which the two major candidates have thus far avoided.  Kennedy said Biden and Trump are "both the products of a broken system."  He highlighted the capture of government agencies by corporate interests such as Big Pharma and BlackRock, the multinational investment management firm.  Kennedy also made a pitch for the We The People party which he is seeking to form in California; the goal is for 75,000 people to register We The People by July 5 to qualify him for the November 5 ballot (1, 2). 
Analysis: Kennedy's outsider, anti-establishment bid faces very long odds.  After initially seeking to challenge Biden for the Democratic nomination, Kennedy switched to an Independent run on Oct. 9, 2023.  He is hoping to capitalize on widespread voter discontent with Biden and Trump.  The Kennedy name provides him with a bit of a head start in terms of getting him on people's radars and gaining media coverage.  On March 26 Kennedy announced Nicole Shanahan, 38, a California attorney and philanthropist, as his running mate.  Shanahan's wealth is expected to help with ballot access and building a competitive campaign.  Kennedy's record as an environmental attorney has some appeal and should not be dismissed, and he is raising and addressing a number of issues the other candidates are not.   

But there are a lot of buts.  Kennedy has earned a reputation as a "wacko," "conspiracy theorist" and "anti-vaxxer" which will be very hard to overcome (1, 2, 3).  The Democratic National Committee has established a team to hold third party candidates, particularly Kennedy, "accountable."  The group of experienced operatives are focusing on pointing out Kennedy's deficiencies and undermining his candidacy; they have labelled him as "MAGA's spoiler candidate (+)."  Even Kennedy's strengths have elements of weakness.  Tellingly, other members of the Kennedy family are backing Biden.  Running mate Shanahan was virtually unknown and has been mocked and ridiculed for her qualifications. 

Finally, there is the systemic challenge.  America's political system is dominated by the two major parties, and third party and Independent candidates are confronted by many obstacles, including ballot access.  Major parties don't have to worry about this, but it is an onerous task for other parties and Independents.  Each state has its own rules, and the Kennedy campaign and other campaigns are now working to gain ballot access in states around the country.

Despite voters' disenchantment, there is a built-in bias toward the major parties.  In close races, the spoiler effect inevitably works against Independent and third party candidates.  They can appear to do well in the early stages of a campaign, but as election day approaches, voters turn to candidates of the established parties.  Alternative candidates typically struggle to reach double digits.  Although Ross Perot tallied 18.91% of the vote in 1992, other recent third party and independent candidates have achieved modest results (Gary Johnson 3.27% in 2016, Ralph Nader 2.74% in 2000, Ross Perot 8.40% in 1996 and John Anderson 6.61% in 1980).  " 
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