Overview:Low Temps, Low
Turnout and Trump Wins
Big
The January 15, 2024
Iowa Republican precinct caucuses
were the first contest of the GOP
presidential nominating process to
select a challenger to likely
Democratic nominee President Joe
Biden. Although there was some
vigorous competition during the
summer and fall of 2023, by Caucus
Day the field of Republican
candidates had thinned from 14 to eight1.
Throughout the campaign, polls
showed former President Donald J.
Trump with a substantial lead, and
this—and the absence of a
Democratic race—led to somewhat of
a stunted campaign. By
caucus week,
attention
focused on the
battle for
second place
between Gov. Ron
DeSantis (FL)
and former UN
Ambassador and
Gov. Nikki Haley
(SC). A major
winter storm and
sub-zero
temperatures
made campaigning
difficult in the
closing days.
Turnout
was a big
question, and
turnout was low2.
On the freezing
Monday night, just
110,272 caucusgoers came out
across the state. They
handed Trump a decisive and
expected victory—he won the
caucuses by a record margin,
gaining support of 51.0%
caucusgoers to 21.2% for
Gov. Ron DeSantis and 19.1%
for former Gov. Nikki
Haley.
The
caucuses further winnowed
the Republican field: Vivek
Ramaswamy, who finished
third at 7.7%, ended his
campaign in his caucus night
speech and endorsed
Trump. Former Gov. Asa
Hutchinson bowed out the
next day.
Democrats
are doing an all
mail-in/online presidential
preference process with
results to be announced
March 5.
Notes:
1. Thirteen is the most commonly
used number of major Republican
candidates; fourteen includes
longshot Ryan Binkley, who ran a
national campaign including a major
ballot access effort, detailed
policy proposals, and, in Iowa,
visits to all 99 counties.
2. By contrast, turnout in the 2016
Iowa Republican caucuses, won by
Sen. Ted Cruz, was 186,932 (>).
