Reactions to the November 3, 2020 General Election: Center for Women and Politics

Election Day « Reactions « Center for American Women and Politics

https://cawp.rutgers.edu/facts/elections/election_watch
Center for American Women and Politics
November 5, 2020
Contact: Daniel De Simone

Record Number of Women to Serve in the 117th U.S. Congress

At least 131 (100D, 31R) women will serve in the U.S. Congress in 2021, surpassing the previous record of 127, first set in 2019, according to data compiled by the Center for American Women and Politics, a unit of the Eagleton Institute of Politics at Rutgers University. A record 106 (83D, 23R) women have already been elected to the U.S. House, including 85 (75D, 10R) incumbents and 21 (8D, 13R) nonincumbents. The previous record for women in the U.S. House was 102 and was set in 2019. Republican women are also close to breaking their record of 25 House members, set in 2006. Republican women currently hold 13 seats in the U.S. House. At 83 winners already selected, Democratic women are still short of their record of 89 women House members, set in 2019. Democratic women currently hold 88 seats in the U.S. House. As of now, 29 (19D, 10R) women House nominees - including 6 (5D, 1R) incumbents and 23 (14D, 9R) non-incumbents - remain in races that are not yet called.

Republican women have already surpassed the record for non-incumbent women House winners, with 13 women winning their 2020 races. The previous record of 9 was set in 2006. So far, 8 non-incumbent Democratic have won election this year; the record for freshman Democratic women House winners is 35, set in 2019. In contrast, already 5 Democratic women incumbents - all responsible for flipping districts from Republican to Democrat in 2018 - were defeated in 2020. No Republican women incumbents have been defeated in 2020 races already called.

As it stands now, 25 (17D, 8R) women will serve in the U.S. Senate in 2021, falling short of the record of 26 set in 2019, including 7 (2D, 5R) women who have won election in 2020 and 18 (15D, 3R) incumbent women senators who were not up for re-election this year. These numbers will change should incumbent Senator Kamala Harris ascend to the vice presidency or Senator Kelly Loeffler win her runoff election on January 5th.

"Women's representation in American politics has been, through struggle and persistence, on a long, if occasionally fitful, upward trajectory. With all that progress, at best women will still make up less than thirty percent of Congress in 2021," said CAWP Director Debbie Walsh. "The 2018 cycle was a story of Democratic success; this year we are seeing significant gains on the Republican side. Advances for women must come from both sides of the aisle if women are to achieve equal representation in Congress."

As many races remain too close to call, these numbers will change as results are determined. For the most current data about women in the 2020 elections, visit CAWP's Election 2020 Results Tracker, and for full results about women in the 2020 elections, head to CAWP's Election Analysis.

About CAWP
The Center for American Women and Politics (CAWP), a unit of the Eagleton Institute of Politics at Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, is nationally recognized as the leading source of scholarly research and current data about women’s political participation in the United States. Its mission is to promote greater knowledge and understanding about the role of women in American politics, enhance women's influence in public life, and expand the diversity of women in politics and government. CAWP’s education and outreach programs translate research findings into action, addressing women’s underrepresentation in political leadership with effective, intersectional, and imaginative programs serving a variety of audiences. As the world has watched Americans considering female candidates for the nation's highest offices, CAWP’s five decades of analyzing and interpreting women’s participation in American politics have provided a foundation and context for the discussion.

Center for American Women and Politics
November 5, 2020
Contact: Daniel De Simone

CAWP Statement on Kamala Harris Becoming the First Woman and First Woman of Color Elected Vice President

Senator Kamala Harris will be the first woman to serve as vice president of the United States, as well as the first woman of color, the first Black woman, and the first South Asian woman. This is an enormously significant moment in the story of women’s participation in American politics and in the history of our country. That it happens during the centennial of the 19th Amendment, which expanded some women’s political participation while women like Kamala Harris remained excluded, is all the more symbolic. At this pivotal moment in history, she is the face of the future of the Democratic Party. Her win puts to rest the question of the electability of women to high office — a question that haunted both the women and people of color who ran for the Democratic nomination this cycle. To women and girls of all walks of life, of every political persuasion, Harris’s ascension to the vice presidency broadens the horizons of the possible. Debbie Walsh Director, Center for American Women and Politics

Center for American Women and Politics
November 12, 2020
Contact: Daniel De Simone

Record Number of Women of Color to Serve in the U.S. Congress

At least 50 (46D, 4R) women of color will serve in the U.S. Congress in 2021, surpassing the previous record of 48, set in 2019. Women of color will also set a new record for U.S. House members, with 47 (43D, 4R) women of color having already won House seats, besting the previous record of 44. Currently, 3 (2D, 1R) women of color congressional nominees - all non-incumbents - remain in House races that are not yet called.

Of the 47 (43D, 4R) women of color selected for House seats so far, 25 (25D) are Black women, which surpasses the previous record of Black women in the House (22, set in 2019); 13 (10D, 3R) are Latinas, which surpasses the previous record of Latinas in the House (12, set in 2019); 7 (6D, 1R) are Asian or Pacific Islander women; 2 (2D) are Native American women; and 1 (1D) is a Middle Eastern or North African woman. This includes two multiracial women, including one woman who identifies as both Black and Asian and another woman who identifies as both white and Latina. These women are counted once in the overall number of women of color who have won House seats, but also in each of the totals for women members in each racial/ethnic group. We are aware that numerous media organizations have reported that Representative-elect Yvette Herrell is of Native American heritage and a member of the Cherokee Nation. CAWP relies on self-identification to determine candidate and officeholder race/ethnicity. She has provided her self-identification with us as white alone.

In the Senate, no women of color won election in 2020. None of the four women of color currently serving in the U.S. Senate, a record high, were up for re-election this year. With Senator Kamala Harris's ascendance to the vice presidency, just three women of color will be in the Senate in 2021: Senators Tammy Duckworth (D-IL), Mazie Hirono (D-HI), and Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV).

"Just five women of color have served in the U.S. Senate in all of American history, with four of those five currently in office, one of whom will soon leave the Senate for the vice presidency. Next year, if California Governor Gavin Newsom does not appoint a Black woman to fill the seat of Vice Presidentelect Harris, no Black women will serve in the Senate," said CAWP Director Debbie Walsh. "We're heartened by the progress made this year in electing women of color to the House, but it is clear that there is much work left undone. Expanding the diversity of experiences among the people who represent us improves outcomes for all Americans."

As many races remain too close to call, these numbers will change as results are determined. For the most current data about women in the 2020 elections, visit CAWP's Election 2020 Results Tracker, and for full results about women in the 2020 elections, head to CAWP's Election Analysis.

Center for American Women and Politics
November 19, 2020
Contact: Daniel De Simone

Women Voters are Key to Biden Victory, Election of First Woman Vice President President-elect

Joe Biden and Vice President-elect Kamala Harris relied heavily on women voters within various demographic groups for their electoral success in 2020, according to an initial analysis of exit poll and election survey data by the Center for American Women and Politics (CAWP), a unit of the Eagleton Institute of Politics at Rutgers University. Specifically, Black women, Latinas, and collegeeducated white women played key roles in delivering the presidency to the Biden-Harris ticket. In contrast, non-college-educated white women and women who identify as evangelical continued to provide a loyal base of support for President Donald Trump.

In 2020, for the first time in nearly two decades, major media outlets relied on more than one election survey to analyze voter behavior in the presidential election: Edison Research’s national exit poll and the Associated Press’s VoteCast (conducted by NORC).1 In light of differences between these surveys and their sampling limitations, CAWP’s analyses of gender and voting behavior in 2020 focuses on trends consistent across these surveys and findings from Latino Decisions, recognized for its more sophisticated and robust sampling of racial minority voters and a methodology that includes greater respondent access to multi-lingual surveys than the Edison exit poll, and the Cooperative Election Study (CES). For specific data on gender differences in presidential vote choice across these surveys, see CAWP’s Comparison of 2020 Election Surveys.

Women’s support for President-elect Joe Biden was especially pivotal to his success among certain groups.

• Across multiple election surveys, including the Edison exit poll, Black women proved to be the most reliable base of voters for the Biden-Harris ticket, with about 9 in 10 Black women casting ballots for the Democrats. Consistent with previous presidential elections, Black women’s support for the Democratic ticket was greater than the support of any other groups of women voters. Their support for Biden was also greater than Black men, though the large majority of Black men also voted for the Democratic ticket. While complete voter turnout data is not yet available for 2020, Black women are consistently among the voters most likely to turn out in U.S. elections. That appears to be true again this year.

• Latinas cast somewhere between two-thirds and three-quarters of their ballots for the BidenHarris ticket, according to this year’s election surveys and consistent with the patterns of support among Latinas for the Democratic party in past presidential elections. Latinas’ support for the Democratic presidential candidate was greater than the support of Latino men, though the preponderance of Latino men also supported the Democratic ticket. This support, while variable across the full diversity of Latino voters, is especially notable in an election year where Latinas/os were expected to be the largest racial/ethnic minority group among U.S. voters.

• While white women overall continued to support President Donald Trump over Joe Biden in nearly all 2020 election surveys, college-educated white women further cemented their shift to Democratic support since the 2016 presidential election. This group backed Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump by seven points, according to Edison’s 2016 exit poll. This year, Biden expanded that margin of support among college-educated white women. Importantly, while collegeeducated white women were more likely than their male counterparts to support the BidenHarris ticket, Biden also expanded support with college-educated white men.

These data illustrate that women are not a monolithic voting bloc. Further evidence of this is available in identifying the consistent support of some women voters for President Donald Trump in the 2020 presidential election.

• Trump’s success in winning the plurality of white women’s votes again in 2020 can be credited largely to his support among clear majorities of non-college-educated white women across election surveys. While non-college-educated white men remained more likely than their women counterparts to back the Trump-Pence ticket, both groups were key to Trump’s support this year.

• Evangelical women, according to the Edison exit poll and the CES, also proved essential to President Trump’s support in 2020, with around 7 in 10 of them casting their ballots for the Trump-Pence ticket. Evangelical men supported the Republican ticket in even higher numbers, according to the national exit poll.

Much attention has historically, and again this year, been given to a singular gender gap in presidential vote, defined as the difference in the proportions of all women and all men voting for the winning candidate. This difference, whereby women have been more likely than men to support Democratic presidential candidates and less likely than men to support Republican presidential candidates, has been consistent in every presidential election since 1980. In 2020, this trend continues. Edison’s exit poll currently reports a gender gap of 12 percentage points between all women and all men, with 57 percent of women and 45 percent of men voting for Biden. VoteCast offers a smaller gender gap (9 percentage points, with 55 percent of women and 46 percent of men voting for Biden), but the gap itself persists. Other presidential elections since 1980 have seen gender gaps ranging from four to eleven percentage points.

As the data above demonstrate, however, there are multiple gender gaps that should be analyzed to fully understand the differential role of women and men in presidential election outcomes. Women across many demographic subgroups – including those highlighted here – were more likely than their male counterparts to support the Biden-Harris ticket, but women within specific groups have contributed more or less to Democratic candidates’ advantage with women overall, both historically and in 2020.

For more detailed analyses of gender differences in voting behavior in 2020, see CAWP’s Revisiting the Gender Gap in 2020 symposium, 2020 Presidential Gender Gap Poll Tracker, and Comparison of 2020 Election Surveys. ______________________________

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1 Edison Research’s national exit poll, which CAWP has relied on in previous presidential elections to analyze gender differences in voting behavior, significantly adjusted their methodology for exit polling this year to account for the historic increase in early and mail-in voting; they expanded their reliance on telephone surveys and inperson interviews at early voting locations. Their exit poll continued to be the source for voter analysis by ABC, CBS, CNN, and CBS. The Associated Press’(AP) VoteCast offered an alternative to the traditional exit poll in 2020 and was adopted as the primary source for voter analysis by major news outlets including Fox News, NPR, PBS NewsHour, Univision News, USA Today Network, and The Wall Street Journal. VoteCast is a telephone survey of registered voters in the days leading up to and including Election Day, conducted by NORC at the University of Chicago.