Although November 3, 2020 was "Election Day," Election Day
is a relative term. More than 100 million votes were
cast before November 3, including over 65 million by
mail. Overall turnout was the highest since 1900, and
experts deemed the election "the most secure in American
history."
Record Early and Mail Voting
Turnout in the 2020 election was the highest
since 1900, about 66.7% or 160 million votes cast. The
pandemic significantly shaped the process of voting,
prompting unprecedented numbers of people to vote
early. According to University of Florida Professor
Michael McDonald, who runs U.S. Elections Project, 101.5
million early votes were cast, 35.8 million in-person and
65.6 million by mail (>).
By comparison, according to the EAC Survey for the 2016
election more than 41 percent of all votes were cast before
Election Day comprising 17 percent in person and 24 percent
by mail.
Early voting started in Texas in 1991 (>), and
has spread to most states (1,
2,
3, 4).
Early voting has significant ramifications on campaigns'
get-out-the-vote (GOTV) efforts. Campaigns encourage
supporters to vote early as a way of banking votes, so that
on Election Day itself they have fewer people to keep track
of.
Expanding
vote by mail was seen as a way to help citizens vote
safely during the pandemic. Before the pandemic five
states voted entirely by mail (Oregon started using
vote-by-mail in 2000, and Colorado, Hawaii, Utah and
Washington subsequently adopted it). For the Nov. 3
election five additional states mailed a ballot to every
registered voter (California, Delaware, Nevada, New Jersey
and Vermont). However, President Trump and the RNC
took a strong stance against universal vote by mail, arguing
that it would open the door to vote fraud. Seemingly
every aspect of vote by mail was litigated from use of drop
boxes to ballot receipt deadlines. Fortunately, many
states were able to work out and improve procedures for vote
by mail during their primaries. The Stanford-MIT
Healthy Elections Project documented over 300 cases of
COVID-related election litigation, many related to vote by
mail (>).
The Brennan Center for Justice reported voting rights
litigation in 40 states in 2020 (>).
The U.S. had not seen such an abundance of election related
litigation since Bush v. Gore in 2000.
Keeping Our Democracy
Running Smoothly
Although the United States lays claim to
being the world's greatest democracy, there are always
challenges and room for improvement.
Russian interference in the 2016 election cast a spotlight on the integrity of our voting processes. Russian meddling, from hacking of emails to cyberattacks on voting systems to spreading of false news, is aimed at undermining Americans' trust and confidence in the system. Entities from the U.S. Department of Homeland Security to secretaries of state to local election officials to social media companies worked to counter the threat, but there was evidence that foreign interference continued in 2020.
External attacks are just one challenge our
democracy faces. The pandemic posed great challenges
to election officials as they worked to ensure people's
right to vote safely. As more people turned to vote by
mail, changes at the U.S. Postal Service raised concerns
about domestic interference; the USPS stepped up its game
and added resources to meet the challenge (+).
In his 2020 book Election Meltdown, election law expert
Rick Hasen writes, "The synergy of... four factors—voter
suppression, pockets of incompetence, foreign and domestic
dirty tricks, and incendiary rhetoric—undermines public
trust in the fairness and accuracy of American elections and
creates high risks for the 2020 elections and beyond."
At the center of what Hasen terms a "partisan war over
election rules" are Republican-backed measures ostensibly
advanced to fight voter fraud, which Democrats say are
actually designed to suppress the vote, particularly among
members of minority groups. Other challenges include
aging voting systems and finding and training poll
workers. After Democrats reclaimed control of the
House in the 2018 midterm election, their first major piece
of legislation of the 116th Congress, the "For the People
Act of 2019" (H.R.1),
contained provisions to address many of these issues.
The general trend has been to make it easier
for citizens to register and vote, but there have at the
same time in some states been efforts to restrict voting
through measures such as purges of voter rolls, strict voter
ID laws and cuts to early voting. Researchers
developed a "Cost of Voting Index" according to which Texas
is the most restrictive state and Oregon is the easiest
state in which to vote (>).
The Brennan Center for Justice reported that 25 states have
adopted more restrictions on voting since the 2010 elections
(1,
2).
The U.S. Supreme Court's June 25, 2013 ruling in Shelby County v. Holder
undercut protections afforded by the Voting Rights Act of
1965, and efforts by congressional Democrats to pass a new
Voting Rights Act have not succeeded. The war over
election laws and rules is seemingly never ending, but in
election years the legal wrangling inevitably assumes a
higher profile.
Erroneous purging of citizens from voter
rolls is a major concern. Investigative reporter Greg
Palast charged that Georgia officials, purportedly based on a national
change of address list, erroneously purged
nearly 200,000 citizens from the state's voter rolls in
2019 (+).
While voter rolls need to be maintained and updated (+),
"exact
match"
rules
that
can
lead
to
rejection
or
removal
of
individuals
from
the
rolls for tiny discrepancies (+). The EAC's 2016 Survey reported that,
"The number of registrants removed from registration
rolls between 2014 and 2016 was 1.9 million greater than
in the same period leading to the 2014 Federal Election
(i.e., 2012 – 2014), a 12.8 percent increase."
Strict voter ID laws have been particularly contentious. As of Jan 2019, the National Conference of State Legislatures reported seven states have strict photo ID requirements and another three have strict non-photo ID requirements (>). There is a lot of litigation in this area. For example, on Oct. 9, 2018 the U.S. Supreme Court declined to take up an emergency appeal to a North Dakota law requiring voter IDs with a street address, a measure seen as likely to disenfranchise Native Americans in rural areas. In New Hampshire, in Feb. 2019 the ACLU filed suit against a law which requires students to obtain a New Hampshire driver's license to vote (+).
Although the U.S. Department of Justice aims "to ensure all qualified voters have the opportunity to cast their ballots and have their votes counted free of discrimination, intimidation or fraud in the election process (+)," civil rights groups are often at the forefront of protecting voting rights.
Many other issues affect elections. Each year
legislatures around the country consider a range of
election-related legislation (>).
Amazingly, so many years after the 2000 Florida debacle and
passage of the Help America Vote Act of 2002 (HAVA) (+), the
possibility of incorrect election outcomes remains.
Among the areas of concern are shortages of poll workers (>),
worn
equipment,
issues
with
provisional
and
absentee
ballots,
military
voting
and
overseas
voting.
The
Jan.
2014
report
of
the
Presidential
Commission
on
Election
Administration
stated,
"By
the
end
of
the
decade,
a
large share of the nation’s voting machines, bought 10 years
ago with HAVA funds, will reach the end of their natural
life and require replacement."
On Election Day itself and in the days leading up to it,
partisan and independent observers, federal observers, and
international observers of varying stripes mobilize to
ensure that voters' rights are protected and their
intentions heard.
See: 2016 (1, 2), 2012 (1, 2,
3,
4[PDF],
5)
and 2008 (1,
2,
3,
4,
5).
After last-ditch campaign swings, the
candidates head to their home states or bases. In
past, photos and video of the candidates
voting on the morning of Election Day have been typical,
but in 2020 they voted early. Vice
President Pence and wife Karen voted on Oct. 23 using their
absentee ballots at a drop box outside the clerk's office at
the Indianapolis City-County Building in Indianapolis, IN (>).
President Trump voted on Oct. 24 at an early voting
location at the Palm Beach County main library in West
Palm Beach, FL (>).
Former Vice President Biden and wife Jill voted on Oct.
28 "by appointment"
at Carvel Delaware State Building in Wilmington, DE (>).
Sen. Kamala Harris and husband Doug Emhoff voted early
by mail (>).
As Election Day, Nov. 3, dawned, the expectation among most pundits was that Biden would win, but there were widespread concerns that Trump might attempt to claim victory based on early results and that there could be a period of unrest or protracted legal imbroglio on par or worse than Bush v. Gore in 2000.
Election Night or Election Week..."It Is Too
Early To Know"
As expected there was not a "normal election
night" on Nov. 3, 2020; indeed it was more of an election
week or weeks. Increased use of vote by mail due to
the pandemic meant the counting took longer.
RepresentUs points out that, "Many states don't allow the
processing, verification, or counting of absentee ballots
until Election Day (>)."
Mail-in ballots require more processing than ballots
tabulated and delivered to the county registrar in a ballot
box from a polling place. (In the 2018 midterms, for
example, the CA-21 U.S House race was not called until 20
days after Election Day). Further, President Trump's
statements about whether he would honor the results of the
election led some groups to prepare for the worst (+).
Although the outcome on Election Night was "it is too early too know," news organizations devoted major resources election night coverage and there were big multi-page spreads in the newspaper on the morning of November 4. These are the culmination of months of preparation and planning. Two key components of the coverage are exit polls and unofficial election night vote results. Through 2016, the National Election Pool, comprised of ABC News, CBS News, CNN, FOX News, NBC News and AP, provided exit poll results based on polling done by Edison Research, while AP provided unofficial results. For 2020 there will be two sources of exit poll data and unofficial results. In April 2017 FOX News left the National Election Pool, and AP left later in 2017. AP is offering AP VoteCast, which debuted in the Nov. 2018 election.
Edison
Research "The definitive source for accurate, timely and comprehensive election data: Exit Polls, Vote Count, Election Projections, Delegate Estimates..." |
AP
VoteCast "It's not an exit poll... AP VoteCast is the new standard in election research, specifically designed to overcome the bias and inaccuracies inherent in the in-person exit poll..." |
Exit polls are based on surveys
of voters in randomly selected precincts as they leave
polling places. They provide a window on the concerns
of voters and useful information on variations in voting
behavior by gender, race, age, education, income and other
factors (>).
From 1988 to 2002 exit polls were overseen by Voter News
Service (initially called Voter Research and Surveys), an
entity formed by the networks and the Associated
Press. After poor performance in the 2000 and 2002
general elections, the partners disbanded VNS, and a new
cooperative, The National Election Pool, comprised of ABC
News, CBS News, CNN, FOX News, NBC News and the Associated
Press, formed.
A Nov. 10, 2016 blog
posting by Edison gives a sense of the resources required:
"A staff of over 3,000 exit poll interviewers, precinct vote return reporters, call center workers, and analysts all across the country helped us provide the sole record of who voted, and why. We collected, processed, and analyzed over 100,000 interviews in a 17-hour period to not only create that record, but also to provide the NEP with the guidance to make the right projections for their viewers and readers (+)."
The second important element of election night coverage is the collection, tabulation and distribution unofficial election night vote results for presidential, Senate, House and gubernatorial races. The Associated Press has long fulfilled this role.
For news organizations, when everything works, election
night is as good as it gets, a chance to show what they can
do. Anchors man elaborate sets, correspondents around
the country file reports, and, as the evening progresses,
states are called one way or another and the map begins to
fill in with red and blue.
[News
Organizations Cover Election Day 2020]
The Morning
Month After...What Does It Mean?
As he had been telegraphing for months,
President Trump claimed he had won the election—over and
over, again and again—in the weeks following Election
Day. The fact that AP and other major news
organizations called the election for Biden on Nov. 7 did
not stop him. Trump issued daily tweets with
unsubstantiated, wild claims about election fraud, which
were repeated and amplified by outlets such as OAN, The
Epoch Times, Newsmax, Sean Hannity and on social
media. All sorts of conspiracy theories cropped up,
and misinformation and disinformation were rampant.
Trump's campaign and allies unleashed a legal barrage,
filing dozens of lawsuits, and losing most of them. In case
after case, the Trump campaign brought forth isolated
anecdotes and a raft of affidavits, making broad assertions
without offering proof, resulting in some scathing legal
opinions (+).
Some observers characterized the effort as an "incompetent
coup." but Trump's refusal to concede put severe
strain on America's democracy.
[Reactions
2020] [Stress
Test]
Biden carried 306 electoral votes to 232
electoral votes for Trump. When all the votes were
tallied, 159.6 million votes were cast in the presidential
election; Biden won 81.3 million votes (51.3%),Trump 74.2
million (46.8%), Jorgensen 1.9 million (1.2%), Hawkins over
400,000 (0.3%) and others including write-ins about 760,000
votes (0.48%). Trump won 25 states and one electoral
vote from Maine, and Biden 25 states, DC and one electoral
vote from Nebraska. [Results
Sliced and Diced]
[See also: David Leip's
Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections, Federal
Election
Commission, Maps: Data
Visualization Weekly], World
Mapper]
Year | Voting Eligible Population | Highest Office | Total Turnout | Highest Office Turnout Rate |
Total Ballots Counted Turnout Rate |
2020 |
239,247,182 |
158,240,239 |
159,633,396* |
66.1 |
66.7 |
2016 |
231,556,622 |
136,489,372 |
138,846,571 |
59.3 |
60.2 |
2012 |
221,925,820 |
129,072,347 |
130,306,739 |
58.2 |
58.7 |
2008 |
212,720,027 | 131,304,731 | 132,588,514 | 61.7 |
62.3 |
2004 | 203,483,455 | 122,294,978 | 123,535,883 |
60.1 | 60.7 |
2000 | 194,331,436 | 105,375,486 | 107,390,107 |
54.2 | 55.3 |
1996 | 186,347,044 | 96,262,935 | - |
51.7 | - |
1992 | 179,675,523 | 104,405,155 | - |
58.1 | - |
1988 | 173,579,281 | 91,594,691 | - |
52.8 | - |
1984 | 167,701,904 | 92,652,680 | - |
55.2 | - |
1980 | 155,635,102 | 86,515,221 | - |
54.2 | - |
Source: United States
Elections Project by Dr. Michael McDonald. Use
of voting eligible population is a refinement on the old
measures which used voting age population; the concept
removes non-citizens and ineligible felons from the
equation. *estimate
Despite the record turnout, roughly one-third of eligible Americans or about 80 million people did not vote. A Medill School of Journalism/NPR/Ipsos survey found the top reasons for not voting were: not registered 29 percent, not interested in politics 23 percent, and don't like the candidates 20 percent (>).
Election Day: Take 2...The Electoral College
As you will recall from high school, the president is not selected by direct popular vote, but by intermediaries known as electors. The electoral system is outlined in the Twelfth Amendment to the Constitution, adopted in 1804 (this significantly modified the original provisions contained in Article II). Each state has a number of electors equal to its number of congressmen and Senators. The District of Columbia has three electors, bringing the total to 538. Most states use a winner-take-all rule; all the state's electors go to the winner of the popular vote in the state. The exceptions are Maine and Nebraska, which distribute the electors by congressional district. Twenty-nine states and DC have statutes requiring electors to vote for the popular vote winner in the state. There is always the possibility of faithless electors, and there was a lot of talk about this following the contentious Nov. 8, 2016 election. On July 6, 2020, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled on two cases that came out of the 2016 election, Chiafalo et al. v. Washington and Colorado Department of State v. Baca, finding that, "A State may enforce an elector's pledge to support his party's nominee–and the state voters' choice–for President."
Electors are generally party activists. Some months
before the election each party puts together a slate of
electors, chosen by congressional district with the
exception of the two at-large Senate slots. If the
party's presidential candidate wins the popular vote in the
state on Election Day, the members of his or her slate are
officially appointed as electors; if not they stay
home.
The law governing electors and the counting of the
electoral votes is 3
U.S.C.§§1-21. Electors meet in ceremonies in
each of the state capitols and in the District of Columbia
on the first Monday after the second Wednesday in
December. The electors sign the certificates of
vote—actually they sign six copies of the document so there
are back-ups. There are separate votes for president
and for vice president. Each state sends one copy of
the certificate of vote to the Office of the President of
the United States Senate.
For a month leading up to the Dec. 14, 2020 meetings,
President Trump waged a noisy campaign to overturn the
results, including dozens of lawsuits and attempts to
pressure several state legislatures to disregard the results
and appoint electors (+).
These efforts failed, and the electors met in the
states. Electors in at least one state, Nevada, met
virtually to be safe as coronavirus cases were high (Dec. 14
was the day the U.S. passed 300,000 deaths due to the
virus). The unofficial tally shows that Biden has won
306 electoral votes to 232 for Trump (+).
Republican electors in a number of states won by Biden
did stage sideshow meetings.
On January 6, 2021 in a special joint session of Congress
the envelopes sent from the states will be opened and
tallied and the election certified. Typically the
tally is a ceremonial affair. An objection or
objections can be raised if one Senator and one Congressman
submit them in writing. In the Jan. 2017 joint
session, several members of the House sought to raise
objections during the tally, but Vice President Biden,
presiding, ruled in each instance that, "The objection
cannot be received without a signature from a Senator (>)."
The last time a successful objection was raised happened in
the Jan. 2005 session when Rep. Stephanie Tubbs-Jones (D-OH)
and Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA) objected to the count in Ohio
(>).
In that instance members meet in their respective chambers
to consider the objections (>).
On Jan.
6, 2021 President Trump is promoting a big protest
rally in Washington, DC, many more Senators and
representatives will be backing the objections, and in the
end the Congress will certify Biden as the winner.
Ongoing Criticism of the
Electoral College
Over the years there have been many, many
efforts to abolish the Electoral College and establish
direct popular vote. These efforts gained momentum
following the 2016 election, when Trump won despite
obtaining 2.8 million fewer votes. In 2019 quite a few
of the Democratic presidential hopefuls threw their support
behind the idea. Additionally in the 116th Congress,
Democrats introduced several resolutions proposing
constitutional amendments to achieve that aim, although the
constitutional amendment route stands almost no chance of
succeeding. On the other side Republican introduced a
resolution "recognizing the value and importance of the
Electoral College" (+).
A number of states have seen attempts to move away from winner-take-all distribution of electors. In 2004 Colorado voters rejected an initiative which would have distributed electors proportionally according to popular vote in the state. An effort in California in 2007 to put an initiative on the June 2008 ballot to award electors by congressional district failed to qualify. More recently Republican legislators sought to alter allocation of electors in several big states that typically have supported the Democratic candidate for president.
More promising is National
Popular Vote's effort to bring about change through
the states. The premise is a compact or "Agreement
Among the States to Elect the President by National Popular
Vote" which would take effect once states totaling 270
electoral votes have enacted it. National Popular Vote
started in 2006. As of Nov. 2020, the National Popular Vote bill has been signed
into law in 16
jurisdictions totaling 196 electoral votes, and needs
approval from additional states totaling 74 electoral
votes (+).
___________
- DEMOCRACY IN ACTION IS STILL ANALYZING 2020 RESULTS -
Election Day Take 3: 2016
Lessons
Each election is unique and produces a set of
lessons and areas that need improvement. Over the
months and years that follow, as new research and accounts
are published a more complete and nuanced understanding of
what happened develops.
A major lesson of 2016 is that campaigns and
observers must be careful to avoid getting caught up in
conventional wisdom. The Clinton campaign was
confident of victory heading into Election Day, speaking of
a "Clinton Coalition," and the vast majority of pundits and
observers foresaw a Clinton victory. It did not
happen. The Trump campaign showed that it is possible
to win despite being significantly outspent on the airwaves
and out-organized on the ground. [Analysis]
Another very clear lesson from 2016 is that much work needs to be done on election integrity and infrastructure. Russia's multifaceted meddling in the 2016 campaign, and the prospect of more such activity, is particularly worrisome. In terms of election infrastructure, it might be time for a federal investment in voting equipment and election security, similar to the Help America Vote Act following the 2000 debacle in Florida. [Russian Interference | Election Integrity]
2016 | 2012 | 2008 | 2004 | 2000
Developments
and Trends
U.S. Election Assistance
Commission
Early Voting
Information Center
National Vote at
Home Institute
Election
Law Blog
ProPublica:
Electionland
National
Conference of State Legislatures: Election Laws &
Procedures | Early
Voting
Election
Center
electionline.org
U.S.
Census Bureau: Voting and Registration
Election
Security
Harvard
University Belfer Institute's Defending Digital
Democracy Project
DHS
Election Security Resource Library
DHS-Cybersecurity&
Infrastructure
Agency #Protect2020
EAC
Election Security Preparedness
Election
Integrity
The
Electoral Integrity Project (Pippa Norris...more of an academic and
global approach)
Verified
Voting Foundation, Inc.
Election
Protection
Coalition
electionmathematics.org
(Kathy Dopp...most recently updated in 2011)
True the Vote
Election
Integrity Project
Caltech-MIT
Voting Technology Project (older)
Changing the Process to Increase
Participation
Brennan
Center for Justice: Voting Rights and Elections
Why Tuesday?
Exit
Polls Plus
American
National Election Studies (ANES)
Edison
Research
- Exit Polls
AP
VoteCast
Electoral
College
Electoral
College (National Archives site)
National
Popular Vote