Margin of Victory in Governor Races
*Seat changed parties. 

 
A look back at past cycles could provide insights into the 2022 cycle.  One can see that in comparable cycles, eight seats changed party control in 2018 and five seats changed party control in 2014.  Since 2012 only eight incumbents have been defeated at the ballot box, although others saw the writing on the wall an did not seek re-election.



Nov. 2, 2021
25.01 +
20.01-25.0
15.01-20.0
10.01-15.0
5.01-10.0
0-5.0
0-5.0
5.01-10.0
10.01-15.0
15.01-20.0
20.01-25.0
25.01 +





NJ 3.22
VA 1.94*





*Virginia changed to Repbulican.



Sept. 14, 2021 California Recall

25.01 +
20.01-25.0
15.01-20.0
10.01-15.0
5.01-10.0
0-5.0
0-5.0
5.01-10.0
10.01-15.0
15.01-20.0
20.01-25.0
25.01 +

CA 23.76












Nov. 3, 2020
25.01 +
20.01-25.0
15.01-20.0
10.01-15.0
5.01-10.0
0-5.0
0-5.0
5.01-10.0
10.01-15.0
15.01-20.0
20.01-25.0
25.01 +

DE 20.83

WA 13.44

NC 4.51


MT 12.87*
MO 15.70
IN 24.46
ND 30.46
NH 31.62
UT 33.09
WV 33.94
VT 41.13
*Montana changed to Democratic.


Nov. 5, 2019 and Nov. 16 LA Runoff
25.01 +
20.01-25.0
15.01-20.0
10.01-15.0
5.01-10.0
0-5.0
0-5.0
5.01-10.0
10.01-15.0
15.01-20.0
20.01-25.0
25.01 +





KY 0.35*
LA 2.66

MS 5.08




*Kentucky changed to Democratic.


Nov. 6, 2018

25.01 +
20.01-25.0
15.01-20.0
10.01-15.0
5.01-10.0
0-5.0
0-5.0
5.01-10.0
10.01-15.0
15.01-20.0
20.01-25.0
25.01 +
HI 28.97
NY 24.41
CA 23.90
RI 15.46
IL 15.70*
PA 17.07

CO 10.62
MN 11.41
NM 14.40*
KS 5.03*
OR 6.40
ME 7.71*
MI 9.56*
WI 1.10*
CT 3.16
NV 4.08*
FL 0.40
GA 1.39
IL 2.73
SD 3.41
OH 3.71
AK 7.03*
NH 7.04
SC 8.04
MD 11.84
OK 12.10
TX 13.31
AZ 14.16
VT 14.92
NE 18.00
AL 19.07
TN 21.01
ID 21.58
MA 33.48
AR 33.56
WY 39.58

*Eight seats changed party - To Democratic: Illinois, New Mexico, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada.  To Republican: Alaska.


Nov. 7, 2017
25.01 +
20.01-25.0
15.01-20.0
10.01-15.0
5.01-10.0
0-5.0
0-5.0
5.01-10.0
10.01-15.0
15.01-20.0
20.01-25.0
25.01 +



NJ 14.14*
VA 8.93







*New Jersey changed to Democratic.

 
Nov. 8, 2016

25.01 +
20.01-25.0
15.01-20.0
10.01-15.0
5.01-10.0
0-5.0
0-5.0
5.01-10.0
10.01-15.0
15.01-20.0
20.01-25.0
25.01 +


DE 19.16

WV 6.79
OR 7.17
WA 8.78
NC 0.22*
MT 3.89
NH 2.27*
MO 5.57*
IN 5.96
VT 8.74*



UT 38.00
ND 57.13
*Four seats changed party - To Democratic North Carolina.  To Republican New Hampshire, Missouri and Vermont.
Plus In West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice, elected as a Democrat, switched to Republican on Aug. 3, 2017.


Nov. 3, 2015 and Nov. 15 LA Runoff

25.01 +
20.01-25.0
15.01-20.0
10.01-15.0
5.01-10.0
0-5.0
0-5.0
5.01-10.0
10.01-15.0
15.01-20.0
20.01-25.0
25.01 +



LA 12.23*



KY 8.70*



MS 34.13
*Louisiana changed to Democratic and Kentucky changed to Republican.


Nov, 4, 2014
25.01 +
20.01-25.0
15.01-20.0
10.01-15.0
5.01-10.0
0-5.0
0-5.0
5.01-10.0
10.01-15.0
15.01-20.0
20.01-25.0
25.01 +


CA 19.94
HI 12.38
NY 13.96
MN 5.56
OR 5.76
PA 9.86*
VT 1.26
CT 2.56
CO 3.34
RI 4.47
NH 4.95
FL 1.08
MA 1.86*
MD 3.64*
KS 3.69
IL 3.92*
MI 4.07
ME 4.81
WI 5.68
GA 7.86
AZ 11.83
AR 13.94*
NM 14.45
SC 14.48
OK 14.80
ID 14.97
NE 17.93
TX 20.37
IA 21.72
AL 27.32
OH 30.61
WY 32.14
SD 45.03
NV 46.70
TN 47.47


*Five seats changed party - To Democratic Pennsylvania.  To Republican Massachusetts, Maryland, Illinois and Arkansas.
Also note: In Hawaii, the incumbent Democratic governor lost in the primary, but the winner held the seat for the Democrats.

 
Nov. 5, 2013
25.01 +
20.01-25.0
15.01-20.0
10.01-15.0
5.01-10.0
0-5.0
0-5.0
5.01-10.0
10.01-15.0
15.01-20.0
20.01-25.0
25.01 +





VA 2.52*



NJ 22.11


*Virginia changed to Democratic.
 

Nov. 6, 2012 
25.01 +
20.01-25.0
15.01-20.0
10.01-15.0
5.01-10.0
0-5.0
0-5.0
5.01-10.0
10.01-15.0
15.01-20.0
20.01-25.0
25.01 +
DE 40.75
VT 20.25

NH 12.09
MO 12.24


MT 1.56
WA 3.08
WV 4.84  
IN 2.93  

NC 11.39*


ND 28.78
UT 40.83
    *North Carolina changed to Republican.



June 5, 2012 Wisconsin Recall
25.01 +
20.01-25.0
15.01-20.0
10.01-15.0
5.01-10.0
0-5.0
0-5.0
5.01-10.0
10.01-15.0
15.01-20.0
20.01-25.0
25.01 +







WI 6.80





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