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Wisconsin
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| WISCONSIN |
Nov. 8,
2022 U.S. Senate |
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WI
Elections Commission
Notes: In a very close race, Sen. Ron Johnson (R), a strong Trump ally and former businessman, won a third term, defeating Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes (D). Johnson was seen as the most vulnerable Republican Senator seeking re-election in 2022. Both candidates endured some controversies. Johnson has a penchant for making controversial remarks and has been a lightening rod for criticism from the left. After the events of Jan. 6, the Wisconsin Democratic Party urged him to resign, terming him "a founding member of the Senate's 'Sedition Caucus.'" A Vanity Fair article described Johnson as a "super-spreader of election and vaccine misinformation." Republicans painted Barnes as a radical extremist dangerous for Wisconsin. RNC rapid response has focused a lot of attention on Barnes. In an Oct 3 email the RNC argued that Barnes' "anti-cop, pro-criminal record speaks for itself," stating he supports defunding the police, wants to release violent criminals from prison en mass, wants to abolish ICE, and had dismissed the 2020 riots as frustration. An an Oct. 7 email listed "17 Facts About Socialist Mandela Barnes." Johnson and Barnes debated at Milwaukee PBS studios, hosted by the Wisconsin Broadcasters Association, on Oct. 7 (>), and at Varsity Theatre co-hosted TMJ4 and Marquette University on Oct. 13 (>). Barnes closed with a 16-day "Win for Wisconsin" tour. Former President Barack Obama campaigned with Wisconsin Democrats at North Division High School in Milwaukee on Oct. 29 (+). Former President Donald Trump did not visit Wisconsin in the Fall. Barnes conceded on Wednesday at the Sherman Phoenix in Milwaukee, where he had announced his candidacy back in July 2021 (>). The Johnson campaign reported $35.6 million raised, $34.5 million spent and $1.2 million cash on hand compared to $41.6 million raised, $40.0 million spent and cash on hand of $865,268 for the Barnes campaign (>). Outside spending in this race was significant. According to Open Secrets, at least 19 groups invested $1 million or more, led by Wisconsin Truth PAC ($28.9M), Senate Leadership Fund ($26.0M), and Americans for Prosperity Action ($11.2M) on the Republican side and Senate Majority PAC ($24.5M) and the DSCC ($4.1M) on the Democratic side (>). According to Open Secrets, the Wisconsin race was the sixth most expensive Senate race of the cycle in terms of general election spending by candidates and groups (>). Aug. 9 Primaries [primary literature] After considerable delay, Johnson announced in a Jan. 9, 2022 op-ed in the Wall Street Journal that he would run, stating, "I'd like to retire, but I think the country is in too much peril." Johnson had pledged in a 2016 interview that he would not seek a third term. ]In the Aug. 9 primary, Johnson easily won, defeating David Schroeder. On the Democratic side, eight candidates appeared on the ballot. Three major candidates drew most attention: Barnes, Treasurer Sarah Godlewski, and Milwaukee Bucks executive Alex Lasry. (They are all very young: Godlewski was born on Nov. 9, 1981, Barnes on Dec. 1, 1986 and Lasry on July 15, 1987). Rounding out the field were Outagamie County Executive Tom Nelson, Steven Olikara, Kou Lee, Peter Peckarsky and Darrell Williams. Barnes announced on July 20, 2021 (1, 2, 3). Prior to being elected lieutenant governor, he was elected twice to the State Assembly and ran unsuccessfully for State Senate. He is seen as the frontrunner and has gained significant endorsements, including from Democracy for America, Progressive Change Campaign Committee, MoveOn Political Action and Indivisible as well as Sens. Cory Booker and Elizabeth Warren. Indivisible's endorsement stated, "Mandela Barnes is a historic candidate running in a historic moment. Poised to become the youngest ever and first Black Senator from Wisconsin, and having grown up in one of the poorest zip codes in the state, Mandela is the kind of transformative leader we need. Getting Mandela to the Senate would bring us all that much closer to winning structural changes that create a future working families deserve." At the same time, critics on the right portrayed Barnes as a radical who is "hiding from the press, seemingly unable to manage questions unless he has them in advance (>)." Godlewski announced on Apr. 14, 2021 (>). She was elected Treasurer in 2018. Her experience includes co-founder of MaSa Partners, a social impact venture, director of the department of strategy and performance for Arapaho County, Colorado, and lead associate at Booz Allen Hamilton. In Fall 2016 she served as Wisconsin director of women's outreach on Hillary Clinton's campaign. Lasry announced on Feb. 17, 2021 (>). He worked as deputy counselor for strategic engagement and special assistant to the chief of staff at the Obama White House, and, after earning his M.B.A. moved to executive positions at the Milwaukee Bucks, which is co-owned by his father billionaire hedge fund manager Marc Lasry. Lasry also chaired the Milwaukee 2020 DNC Convention Bid Committee which brought the Convention to the Brew City, although the COVID pandemic subsequently crushed that work. Nelson ran as an underdog and a progressive in the mode of former Sen. Russ Feingold (>). He announced his candidacy in Oct. 2020. Nelson has served as County Executive since 2011 and previously served six years in the State Assembly, including more than two years as Majority Leader. He also ran for Congress in 2016. Nelson made a strong appeal for union support, and has even authored a book One Day Stronger: How One Union Local Saved a Mill and Changed an Industry – and What it Means for American Manufacturing. Olikara, founder of the Millennial Action Project, musician and self-described "political entrepreneur," advocated for reforms to "incentivize Congress to work for all of us." On June 28 he received the endorsement of former presidential candidate Andrew Yang. Five candidates—Barnes, Godlewski, Lasry, Nelson and Olikara— participated in a televised debate hosted by TMJ4 News at Marquette University on July 17 (>). At the end of the month, three major candidates ended their campaigns and endorsed Barnes, clearing his path to the nomination. Nelson withdrew on July 25, Lasry on July 27, and Godlewski on July 29. As of July 20, 2022, the Johnson campaign reported $17.3 million raised, $15.3 million spent and cash on hand of $2.0 million; the Lasry campaign raised $18.7 million, including $14.9 million in self-financing, and spent $16.9 million; the Barnes campaign raised $6.9 million, spent $6.0 million and had cash on hand of a bit less than $1 million; the Godlewski campaign raised $6.9 million, including $4.0 million in self-financing, and spent $6.6 million, and the Nelson campaign raised and spent $1.6 million (>). Campaign Managers: Ron Johnson: Dylan Lefler Convention director on Youngkin for Governor (VA), Mar.-May 2021 Campaign manager on appointed Sen. Martha McSally's 2020 U.S. Senate campaign in Arizona, Apr. 2019-Nov. 2020. Campaign manager on David Young for Congress (IA), Jan.-Nov. 2018. Outreach for Sen. Jeff Flake, Jan.-Dec. 2017. Political director on Jeff Flake for U.S. Senate, Aug.-Oct. 2017. Data director on Friends of John McCain, Sept. 2015-Nov. 2016. Associate at Lovasco, Jan.-Sept. 2015. Field representative on Ducey 2014, May-Nov. 2014. B.S. and B.A. in public relations and poltical science from Northern Arizona University, 2014. Mandela Barnes: Kory Kozloski (July 2021) National political director (Jan. 2019-Mar. 2021) and Northeast regional political director (Apr. 2017-Dec. 2018) at the DCCC. Executive director of the Democratic Party of Wisconsin, Nov. 2015-Feb. 2017. Senior associate at A | L Media, Nov. 2011-Oct. 2015. Director of the Democratic Party of Wisconsin Coordinated Campaign (Senate recalls), March-Sept. 2011. Executive director of the Wisconsin State Democratic Committee, Jan. 2009-March 2011. Chief of staff to Wisconsin State Sen. Lena Taylor, Nov. 2006-Dec. 2007. Campaign manager on John Lehman for Senate, April-Nov. 2006. B.A. in political science from UW-Milwaukee, 2004. See also: Robert Kraig. "The Lesson from the Wisconsin Midterm Elections: Face to Face Makes a Difference." Barn Raiser, Dec. 21, 2022. Scott Bauer. "Wisconsin's Johnson beats Barnes; key Senate seat stays GOP." AP, Nov. 9, 2022. Rich Kremer and Danielle Keding. "'The race is over': Ron Johnson declares victory over Mandela Barnes in tight US Senate matchup." WPR, Nov. 9, 2022. Chris McGreal. "How Republicans' racist attack ads wiped out Democrat's lead in Wisconsin." The Guardian, Nov. 4, 2022. Harm Venhuizen. "Barnes' Senate bid may ride on Milwaukee Black turnout." AP, Oct. 29, 2022. Kyle Mullins. "Meet The Wisconsin Billionaires Spending Big To Keep Ron Johnson In The Senate." Forbes, Aug. 8, 2022. Holly Otterbein. "Ron Johnson pursues a scorched earth path to reelection." Politico, Apr. 19, 2022. Ruth Conniff. "The Underdog: Tom Nelson's longshot race for U.S. Senate." Wisconsin Examiner, Jan. 18, 2022. Ron Johnson. "Why I'm Seeking a Third Senate Term." Wall Street Journal, Jan. 9, 2022. |
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