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Pennsylvania
Senate
| PENNSYLVANIA |
Nov. 8,
2022 U.S. Senate |
|
Voter
registration: 8,873,144.
PA
Department of StatePlurality: 263,752 votes (4.91 percentage points). DEMOCRATIC PICKUP Notes: Sen. Pat Toomey (R), first elected in 2010, announced in an Oct. 5, 2020 press conference that he would not seek a third term (>). Early on pundits viewed this seat as the most likely to flip in 2022, and Democrats had high hopes of achieving a pickup. After a lot of drama—including a hard fought Republican primary that went to a recount and the leading Democratic candidate suffering a stroke just days before the primary—and a lot of spending—this was the most expensive general election Senate campaign of the cycle—Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D) defeated Mehmet Oz (TV personality "Dr. Oz"), attorney Richard Weiss (G), attorney Dan Wassmer (K) and carpenter Erik Gerhardt (L). After suffering a stroke on May 13, days before the May 17 primary, Fetterman still won that race comfortably, but he was off the campaign trail for about three months working on his recovery. On Aug. 12 Fetterman held his first post-stroke rally in Erie. Questions remained about his health. In September Fetterman noted he was still "addressing some of the lingering issues of my stroke, the auditory processing," but said he would debate. Fetterman had seemed to be ahead, but on Oct. 4 Cook Political Report shifted the race from "leans Democrat" to "toss up." Oz and Fetterman debated on Oct. 25 at ABC27 studios (WHTM, Nexstar Media Group) in Harrisburg (>); to accomodate Fetterman's disability, large monitors showed the questions and responses. Fetterman struggled at times—commentators described the performance as "shaky" and at times "painful" and afterwards some Democrats opined that he should not have debated. This race was filled with sharp attacks. The Oz campaign focused on Fetterman's "radical record," particularly on crime. For example, an Oct. 4 press release from the Oz campaign highlighting a Fox News report stated, "ICYMI: Fetterman Cast Lone Vote in Failed Bid to Free Man Convicted in First-Degree Murder of High Schooler." Another Oct. 4 campaign press release declared "Fetterman Campaign Desperately Backpedaling on Drug Decriminalization," and a Sept. 30 release provided a "List of Drugs Fetterman Would Decriminalize." For his part Fetterman repeatedly ribbed Oz as a New Jerseyite. An Oct. 5 release from the Fetterman campaign highlighted a KDKA report, stating, "NEWS: Dr. Oz Killed Puppies, and More People are Noticing." A very effective Fetterman video from Oct. 3 (>) compared Oz to the quack Dr. Nick on "The Simpsons." Oz's self-inflicted Apr. 6 crudite video (>) was not forgotten. National party leaders weighed in. On Sept. 3, former President Trump rallied with Oz, gubernatorial nominee Doug Mastriano and "the entire Pennsylvania Trump ticket" in Wilkes-Barre on Sept. 3 (>), and he rallied with them again in Latrobe on Nov. 5 (>). Fetterman appeared with President Biden at an infrastructure event in Pittsburgh and a fundraiser in Philadelphia on Oct. 20. Former President Obama backed Fetterman in an ad that ran starting Oct. 21. Biden and Vice President Harris headlined a Pennsylvania Democratic Party fundraising dinner in Philadelphia on Oct. 28, and Biden and former President Obama rallied with Fetterman and Shapiro in Pennsylvania on Nov. 5 (>). Meanwhile, the three third party candidates struggled for attention. Gerhardt, the Libertarian, achieved the best showing, 1.36% of the vote. Speaking at a Libertarian rally at the Capitol on Oct. 24, Gerhardt declared, "I'm here to defend your freedoms, all your freedoms." Open Secrets reported $312.9 million in spending by Fetterman and Oz campaigns and their allies comprising $90.0 million by the campaigns and $222.9 million by outside groups, making Pennsylvania the most expensive Senate race of the cycle (>). As of Oct. 19 the Fetterman campaign reported $56.7 million raised, $52.1 million spent, and cash on hand of $4.5 million compared to $40.4 million raised — of which $22.7 million was candidate self-financing, $37.7 million spent, and cash on hand of $2.6 million for the Oz campaign. Twenty nine groups reported spending $1 million or more on the Pennsylvania Senate race. Top spenders on the Republican side were Senate Leadership Fund ($47.5M), American Leadership Action ($19.6M), Honor Pennsylvania ($19.3M) and Americans for Prosperity Action ($11.0M) and on the Democratic side Senate Majority PAC ($45.9M) and Future Forward USA ($10.7M). On Election Night, Oz declared "when all the ballots are counted, we believe we will win this race (>)," but early on Nov. 9, AP called the race for Fetterman; Fetterman delivered his victory speech at around 1:30 in the morning (>). Following the election, the New York Times' Maggie Haberman reported that Trump was "furious" "particularly about Mehmet Oz, and is blaming everyone who advised him to back Oz," including wife Melania and Sean Hannity. However, on CNN retiring Sen. Toomey faulted Trump for "inserting himself into the race." The Intense May 17 Primary Campaigns [primary literature] The Republican primary campaign was a wild affair, the most expensive of the 2022 cycle and among the most competitive of any state. The question of who former President Trump would support and which candidate could successfully motivate his MAGA base were central factors in the race. On Sept. 1, 2021, Trump endorsed Sean Parnell, a veteran and former congressional candidate. However, Parnell suspended his campaign on Nov. 22 after losing a custody fight with his estranged wife which included allegations of abuse. Parnell's exit reset the race, and attention focused on five candidates, led by Mehmet Oz, the Turkish-American surgeon and TV personality known as "Dr. Oz," and David McCormick, former CEO of Bridgewater Associates, a very large hedge fund. In his Nov. 30 announcement video, Oz declared that "Washington got it wrong" on COVID (>). Trump gave Oz a major boost, endorsing him on Apr. 9 (+). Trump rallied with Oz at Westmoreland Fairgrounds in Greensburg on May 6 (>). McCormick formed an exploratory committee on Dec. 20 and formally entered the race on Jan. 13 stating he was running "to fight the woke mob highjacking America's future." McCormick garnered endorsements from many conservative luminaries including Sen. Ted Cruz, former Gov. Mike Huckabee, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, Ralph Reed, and former Sen. Rick Santorum as well as Sean Parnell. Oz and McCormick spent millions of their own money, outside groups poured more than $30 million in additional spending, including $19.0 million from the pro-Oz super PAC Honor Pennsylvania (>), and attacks flew back and forth. Oz and his allies targeted McCormick's business ties with China, while the McCormick campaign portrayed Oz as "a Hollywood liberal phony who will read whatever script is put in front of him" and raised questions about Oz's dual Turkish citizenship. Benefiting from Oz-McCormick attacks, conservative commentator Kathy Barnette enjoyed a late surge. Also in the top tier were former ambassador to Denmark Carla Sands and businessman Jeff Bartos, who was the 2018 nominee for lieutenant governor. Rounding out the field were attorneys George Bochetto and Sean Gale. Candidates engaged in several debates including on Jan. 12, Apr. 26 and May 4. Election Night was dramatic. Early returns showed McCormick ahead, but as the night progressed the margin narrowed and Oz pulled slightly ahead. A week later the margin between Oz and McCormick stood at 902 votes or less than 0.5% of 1.34 million total votes cast. Acting Secretary of State Leigh M. Chapman started the process of ordering a recount. Counties were tocomplete their recounts by June 7 and submit them to the Department of State by June 8 (>). Seeing insufficient gains, McCormick conceded on June 3, giving his full support of Oz (>). The Democratic primary had a different kind of drama. Days before Election Day, on May 13, the frontrunner, Lt. Gov. John Fetterman suffered a stroke which sent him to Lancaster General Hospital. The campaign informed the public in a May 15 statement. Fetterman went on to win the primary by a 58.7% to 26.3% margin over his nearest competitor Conor Lamb. He had a defibrillator/pacemaker implanted and was released from the hospital on May 22. Fetterman is hoping to return to the campaign trail in July. His cardiologist states that he “should be able to campaign and serve in the U.S. Senate without a problem," but the episode raised questions about his candidacy (+). Fetterman, who served as Mayor of Braddock from 2006-2019, announced his candidacy on Feb. 8, 2021, focusing on "places that feel left behind (>)." Fetterman had also sought the Democratic Senate nomination in 2016, losing to Katie McGinty. Seen as a progressive, Fetterman presented an unusual figure on the campaign trail, wearing shorts and a hoodie. In the closing months of the primary campaign, he faced questions over 2013 gun incident involving a black jogger. U.S. Rep. Conor Lamb, a centrist first elected to Congress from the Pittsburgh suburbs in a Mar. 2018 special election, announced his candidacy on Aug. 6, 2021 (>), but did not seem to gain traction. The Apr. 27, 2022 finance reports showed the Fetterman campaign had raised $15.9 million to $6.1 million for the Lamb campaign. Also running were state Rep. Malcolm Kenyatta and Jenkintown (Montgomery Co.) Councilwoman Alex Khalil. Debates included Apr. 21 and Apr. 25. Several Democratic candidates withdrew before the primary including Montgomery County Commissioner Val Arkoosh (Feb. 4, 2022) and Dr. Kevin Baumlin (Mar. 31, 2022). Campaign Managers: John Fetterman: Brendan McPhillips (announced June 13, 2022, succeeding Maggio) Pennsylvania state director on Biden for President, July-Nov. 2020. Iowa state director on Pete for America, May 2019-Feb. 2020. Campaign manager on Andrew Gillum for Governor (FL), Nov. 28, 2017-Aug. 2018. Senior advisor on Joe Khan for District Attorney (Philadelphia), Jan.-May 2017. Political director on Pete for DNC, Feb. 2017. Pennsylvania political director on Hillary for America, May-Nov. 2016. Campaign manager on John Fetterman's 2016 primary campaign for U.S. Senate, Oct. 2015-April 2016. Campaign manager on Helen Gym’s successful campaign for Philadelphia City Council, Feb.-Nov. 2015. Campaign manager on Kevin Strouse’s 2014 congressional race in PA-8 in Bucks County, Jan.-Nov. 2014. Pennsylvania organizing director for Mayors Against Illegal Guns, March 2013-Jan. 2014. Regional field director in Bucks County on the Obama campaign, March-Nov. 2012. Regional field director/assistant community manager for Draftfcb, March-Oct. 2011. Special projects director on Hoosiers for Hill, June-Nov. 2010. B.A. in political science, peace studies from University of Notre Dame, 2010; transferred from San Jacinto College. Bobby Maggio (through primary) Chief of staff to Lt. Gov. Fetterman, Jan. 2019-Jan. 2021. Political director on John Fetterman for Lt. Governor, Nov. 2017-Jan. 2019. Campaign manager on Debbie Kunselman for Judge, June-Nov. 2017. Intern/clerk in the City of Pittsburgh Controller's Office, Jan.-June 2017. Field organizer in Pittsburgh for NextGen Climate, May-Nov. 2016. Lead statewide field organizer on Fetterman for U.S. Senate, Jan.-Apr. 2016. Assistant general manager at Dunkin Donuts in Butler, PA, Aug. 2015-Jan. 2016. B.A. in political science and government from Slippery Rock University of Pennsylvania, 2015. Mehmet Oz: Casey Contres (Dec. 2021) Chief of staff to U.S. Rep.Tony Gonzales (TX), Nov. 2020-Dec. 2021. Campaign manager on Cory Gardner for Senate, Feb. 2019-Nov. 2020. Press secretary to Sen. Cory Gardner, Apr. 2017-Jan. 2019. Communications director to U.S. Rep. Bill Shuster, June 2014-Apr. 2017; also campaign manager on Bill Shuster for Congress, May-Nov. 2016 and political director (Jan.-May 2014) and field director (Apr.-Dec. 2013) on Bill Shuster for Congress. Campaign manager on Janet S. Anderson's campaign for Pennsylvania State Senate (Erie), Aug.-Nov. 2012. Congressional aide/press assistant to U.S. Rep. Tim Murphy, Aug. 2011-July 2012. B.A. in political science and journalism from Indiana University of Pennsylvania, 2011. See also: Nia Prater. "John Fetterman's Team on How a Stroke Changed His campaign." New York, Nov. 11, 2022. Paul Bedard. "Ignoring dead dogs helped doom Dr. Oz." Washington Examiner, Nov. 11, 2022. Chris Cillizza. "This Republican senator just dropped a truth bomb on his party." CNN, Nov. 11, 2022. Dan Merica and Gregory Krieg. "How Fetterman flipped Pennsylvania." CNN, Nov. 10, 2022. Margaret Hartman. "Trump Posts Fake Apology to Melania and Hannity." New York, Nov. 10, 2022. Julia Terruso and Jonathan Tamari. "How John Fetterman won Pennsylvania's Senate race." Philadelphia Inquirer, Nov. 9, 2022. Mike Catalini. "Why AP called Pennsylvania Senate race." AP, Nov. 9, 2022. Erich Boehm. "Will Pennsylvania's Libertarian Senate Candidate Drop Out? 'That's a Hard No.'" Reason, Nov. 2, 2022. David Catanese. "'Waiting on Pennsylvania': Why the U.S. Senate race may drag past Election night." McClatchy, Oct. 27, 2022. Benjamin Wallace-Wells. "Fetterman's Struggles at the Pennsylvania Senate Debate." New Yorker, Oct. 26, 2022. Henry J. Gomez, Jonathan Allen, Marc Caputo and Allan Smith. "Fetterman's debate performance has Democrats on edge in crucial Pennsylvania Senate race." NBC News, Oct. 26, 2022. Filip Timotija. "Outside groups have spent $130.9 million in contentious U.S. Senate general race in Pennsylvania – more money than any other this election cycle." Open Secrets, Oct. 21, 2022. Megan Guza. President Biden touts infrastructure bill in stop at Fern Hollow Bridge construction site." Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, Oct. 20, 2022. Akela Lacy. "The Biggest, Dumbest Race for the Senate." The Intercept, Oct. 19, 2022. Rebecca Traister. "The Vulnerability of John Fetterman." New York, Oct. 10, 2022. [cover story] Myah Ward. "Fetterman campaign agrees to Oct. 25 debate with Oz." Politico, Sept. 14, 2022. Editorial Board. "Beneath campaign nastiness, legitimate concerns about Fetterman's health." Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, Sept. 5, 2022. Olafimihan Oshin. "Fetterman won't participate in early September debate with Oz." The Hill, Aug. 30, 2022. Kat Bouza. "Those 10 Houses Dr. Oz Owns? They're Actually 'Properties.'" Rolling Stone, Aug. 18, 2022. Dana DiFilippo. "In Pennsylvania, a scrappy interloper – New Jersey – dominated U.S. Senate race." New Jersey Monitor, Aug. 11, 2022. Sahil Kapur, Jonathan Allen and Henry J. Gomez. "Fetterman's health, return to campaign trail a mystery as some Democrats grow 'very nervous' about Pa. Senate race." NBC News, June 2, 2022. Jonathan Lai and Julia Terruso. "Everything to know about the Pa. Senate race, recount rules, undated mail ballots and more." Philadelphia Inquirer, May 25, 2022. Holly Otterbein and Natalie Allison. "GOP launches Operation Stop Barnette." Politico, May 12, 2022. Jonathan Tamari and Aseem Shukla (The Philadelphia Inquirer). "Pa. U.S. Senate Republican primary: Now we know how much Mehmet Oz and David McCormick are personally spending on their campaigns." Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, Apr. 18, 2022. Sara Murray and Michael Warren. "Republican Sean Parnell suspends candidacy for Pennsylvania Senate seat." CNN, Nov. 22, 2021. Christian Paz. "John Fetterman is redefining how swing-state Democrats campaign." Vox, May 13, 2022. Gregory Korte. "Democrat in Gym Shorts Maps Path to Senate Through Trump Country." Bloomberg, May 12, 2022. Trip Gabriel. "Conor Lamb Had All the Makings of a Front-Runner. So Why Is He Struggling." New York Times, May 12, 2022. Domenico Montanaro. "The top 10 Senate seats that are most likely to flip to the other party." NPR, Apr. 13, 2022. Simone Pathe. "The 10 Senate seats most likely to flip in 2022." CNN, Mar. 27, 2022. |
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