Nov. 8, 2022 U.S. Senate Races

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 Sen.
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At Stake: 35 Seats
Before Nov. 8: 50R, 48D and 2I.

AL  -  AK  -  AZ  -  AR  -  CA  -  CO  -  CT  -  FL  -  GA  -  HI -  ID  -  IL  -  IN  -  IA  -  KS  -  KY  -  LA  -  MD  -  MO  -  NV  -  NH  -  NY  -  NC  -  ND  -  OH  -  OK  -  OK (sp)  -  OR  -  PA  -  SC  -  SD  -  UT  -  VT  -  WA  -  WI  -  Dec. 6 GA runoff


Democrats         
Republicans         
Third Party/
Independent
Alabama




Alaska  




Arizona




Arkansas




California




Colorado




Connecticut




Florida




Georgia




Hawaii [no response]
 [no literature]




Idaho




Illinois




Indiana




Iowa




Kansas





Kentucky




Louisiana




Maryland




Missouri




Nevada




New
Hampshire




New York [request pending]




North Carolina





North Dakota




Ohio




Oklahoma




Oklahoma (sp)




Oregon




Pennsylvania

D+




South Carolina




South Dakota




Utah [no candidate]




Vermont




Washington




Wisconsin




Georgia runoff


After Nov. 8: 49R, 47D, 2I and 1 tbd.
After Dec. 6 runoff: 49D, 49R and 2I.*
*On Dec. 9, 2022 Sen. Krysten Sinema (AZ) announced she was switching from Democrat to Independent, taking the balance in the U.S. Senate for the 118th Congress to 48D, 49R and 3I.  Sens. Sanders and King caucus with the Democrats, and Sinema was expected to align with Democrats although the precise arrangement was unclear.
  Margin of Victory in Percentage Points
25.01 +
 20.01-25.0
 15.01-20.0
 10.01-15.0
 5.01-10.0
 0-5.0
 0-5.0
 5.01-10.0
 10.01-15.0
 15.01-20.0
 20.01-25.0
 25.01 +
MD 31.69
VT 40.44
HI 45.17
 		CA 22.13
 		IL 15.32
 		NY 14.00
WA 14.52
CO 14.62
OR 14.91
CT 14.92
 		NH 9.06
 		NV 0.78
GA 2.81
AZ 4.89
PA 4.91*
 		WI 1.01
NC 3.23
 		OH 6.11
 		UT 10.41
IA 12.18
MO 13.26
 		FL 16.41
 		IN 20.75
KS 22.96
KY 23.63
 		SC 25.87
OKs 26.52
ND 31.43
ID 31.94
OK 32.20
AR 34.64
AL 35.74
SD 43.48
LA 43.71
  Plus AK — not sure how to calculate.  GA is runoff result.  LA is jungle primary result.
  *Seat changed parties. 
  


2022 SENATE RACE OVERVIEW [links/logos]

Heading into Nov. 8, Democrats had the narrowest of majorities in the Senate with Vice President Kamala Harris holding the tie-breaking vote.  Conventional wisdom was that Republicans would almost certainly win the majority in the House and stood a good chance of reclaiming the majority in the Senate as well.  Instead, Election Day and the Dec. 6 Georgia runoff left Democrats with a gain of one seat and a real majority.  Republicans were defending six open seats compared to just one for the Democrats, but Democrats had several vulnerable incumbents.  Democrats defended all their incumbents and achieved a pickup in Pennsylvania, taking the effective balance to 51 to 49 (including 2 Independents caucusing with the Democrats)** and putting Sen. Chuck Schumer in position to remain as Majority Leader.  Most of the blame for the GOP's subpar showing fell on former President Donald Trump, who made quite a few endorsements in Senate primary races with decidedly mixed results in the general election.  Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell had his critics, including Trump.  Sen. Rick Scott, chairing the NRSC, also came under considerable criticism for his management of the committee. 

Balance before Nov. 8, 2022:  50 Republicans, 48 Democrats and 2 Independents.

35 seats at stake*:  14 held by Democrats, 21 by Republicans.

 7 retirements:  1 Democrat, 6 Republicans.
  D: Pat Leahy (VT). 
   R: Richard Shelby (AL), Roy Blunt (MO), Richard Burr (NC), Rob Portman (OH), Pat Toomey (PA); Jim Inhofe (OK).
  
0 incumbents defeated in primaries and the general election.

1 open seat flipped:  1 Democratic pick-up.
   D: John Fetterman (PA).
 
 7 new Senators elected:  2 Democrats, 5 Republicans.
  D: Peter Welch (VT), John Fetterman (PA).
   R: Katie Britt (AL), Eric Schmitt (MO), Ted Budd (NC), JD Vance (OH), Markwayne Mullin (OK).

Balance after Nov. 8, 2022:  49 Republicans, 48 Democrats,  2 Independents, 1 tbd.
Balance after Dec. 6, 2022:  49 Republicans, 49 Democrats,  2 Independents.**

*Includes a special election in Oklahoma, where Sen. James Inhofe (R) announced on Feb. 28 that he will retire effective Jan. 3, 2023 (+).

**Democrats had two days to celebrate Sen. Raphael Warnock's win in the Georgia runoff.  On Dec. 9, Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (AZ) announced she was switching her registration from Democrat to Independent, taking the balance in the U.S. Senate for the 118th Congress to 48D, 49R and 3I.  Sens. Sanders and King caucus with the Democrats while Sinema was expected to align with Democrats although the precise arrangement was unclear.
 
Also note, looking to the 118th Congress, there will be another change.  In Oct. 2022 reports emerged that Sen. Ben Sasse (R-NE) was under consideration to serve as president of the University of Florida.  He announced he would resign in the first week of Jan. 2023 paving the way for the incoming Gov. Jim Pillen (R) to appoint a successor, seen as likely to be outgoing Gov. Pete Ricketts (R).
 




HIGHLIGHTS

  • Open Secrets reports the most expensive Senate campaign of the cycle (general election candidates and outside groups) was the Warnock-Walker race and runoff in Georgia, closing in on $400 million, followed by Pennsylvania ($313.1 million), and Arizona ($203.4 million).  All told, eight races came in at over $100 million (>).
  • No incumbents were defeated.
  • The closest races were in Nevada, where Sen. Catherine Cortez-Masto (D) eked out a 0.78 percentage point win over former Attorney General Adam Laxalt (R), and Wisconsin where Sen. Ron Johnson (R) won by 1.01 percentage points over Mandela Barnes (D).
  • More than a third of races (12) were decided by margins of more than 25 percentage points.
  • Twenty major party candidates on the Nov, 8 ballot were women (13D,7R).  In the 118th Congress, 25 women (16D,9R) (15D,9R,1I) women will serve in the Senate; this is up from 24 in the 117th Congress; the addition is Katie Britt (R-AL).
  • Trump endorsed non-incumbent Senate candidates achieved mixed results.  In some of the primary races, Trump's endorsement "made the nominee," i.e. was critical to that candidate winning the primary.  In the primaries, Trump endorsed in five open seat Senate races (including runoffs): Alabama (Brooks, then Britt), North Carolina (Budd), Ohio (Vance), Oklahoma (Mullin), Pennsylvania (Parnell, then Oz).  Four of these candidates won, but Oz lost.  In Missouri and Vermont, Trump waited until after the primaries to endorse.  Trump also endorsed in five challenger races: Alaska (Tshibaka), Arizona (Masters), Connecticut (Leavy), Georgia (Walker), Nevada (Laxalt).  None of these candidates won.
  • Evan McMullin achieved the strongest showing by an independent.  In Utah, running against Sen. Mike Lee (R) with the tacit support of state Democrats, Mullin obtained 42.7%.


see also: campaign managers

                 
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