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Georgia
Senate
| GEORGIA |
Dec. 6,
2022 U.S. Senate Runoff
Nov.
8, 2022 Senate election > |
|
Plurality: 99,389 votes (2.81 percentage points) GA
Secretary of State
Notes: Warnock started out the 2022 cycle as the most vulnerable Democrat Senator seeking re-election; his win in the Dec. 6 runoff put an exclamation point on the campaign season. Democrats had already won effective control of the Senate in the Nov. 8 elections, but that depended on Vice President Kamala Harris for the deciding vote. Warnock's victory gave Democrats an effective 51 to 49 majority in the Senate, and marked another setback for former President Donald Trump. In contrast to the 2020 Georgia runoffs, which took place two months after the November election, the 2022 Georgia runoff occurred 28 days after the election as a result of S.B. 202, the 98-page election bill signed into law by Gov. Brian Kemp on Mar. 25, 2021. This made for an intense four weeks. After Nov. 8, the Georgia Senate campaign resumed almost without pause. Both Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball rated the runoff race a toss up, but Warnock appeared to have a slight edge. He enjoyed a huge fundraising advantage, and news reports continued to highlight Walker's shortcomings and deficiencies. Analyst Stuart Rothenberg said Walker was the worst U.S. Senate candidate of the cycle, writing, "He is as bad a candidate as I have ever seen." On the eve of Election Day, Sabato's Crystal Ball moved its rating to "leans Democratic." Voter turnout was critical and the ground game was a huge focus. On Nov. 10 the DSCC announced "a new $7 million field organizing effort" for the runoff (+). Also on Nov. 10, Politico reported on an agreement between the McConnell-aligned Senate Leadership Fund (SLF) and the Kemp campaign wherein the SLF would fund a $2 million GOTV operation run by Kemp's team. And, an NRSC memo stated, "The RNC, NRSC, GA GOP and Republicans across the nation are working day and night to win the runoff (1, 2)." There was a steady stream of visits. Sen. Ted Cruz (TX) rallied with Walker in Cherokee County on Nov. 10 (>). NRSC chair Sen. Rick Scott (FL) appeared with Walker in Peachtree City on Nov. 13 and Augusta on Nov. 14, and he met with RNC volunteers and doorknocked in Atlanta on Nov. 21. Sens. Cruz and Lindsey Graham (SC) joined Walker at a bus tour stop in North Forsyth on Nov. 27 (>). Sen.-elect Markwayne Mullin (OK) and RNC Chair Ronna McDaniel rallied with Walker in Greensboro on Nov. 29 (>). Sen. Tim Scott (SC) and Sen. John Kennedy (LA) joined Walker at a stop in Loganville on Dec. 4. Perhaps most important to Walker's chances was Gov. Brian Kemp. In the Nov. 8 election, Kemp obtained over 200,000 more votes than Walker (2,111,575 versus 1,908,442). If Walker could win their support it might make the difference. In addition to providing his GOTV organization to McConnell-aligned SLF, he rallied with Walker on Nov. 20 in the parking lot of Adventure Outdoors ("The World's Largest Gun Store") in Smyrna. The Walker campaign then featured footage of Kemp from the rally in an ad (>), and Kemp was also featured in an effective Nov. 23 ad from the SLF (>). Noticeably absent from the runoff campaign was Trump. Stories of his recent stumbles including his curiously flat Nov. 16 announcement of a 2024 presidential campaign, his controversial Nov. 22 dinner with a racist at Mar-a-Lago, and his Dec. 3 social media post suggesting "the termination of all rules, regulations, and articles, even those found in the Constitution" kept him in the news, but his only visible campaign presence was an Election Eve tele-rally for Walker. On the Democratic side, former President Barack Obama cut an ad for Warnock (>), and rallied with him in Atlanta on Dec. 1 (+). Former First Lady Michelle Obama taped robocalls for Warnock, and President Joe Biden traveled to Massachusetts to help with fundraising. Walker took additional hits in the runoff campaign including more domestic violence allegations and questions about his residency status in Georgia. A Nov. 26 video from the Warnock campaign showed Georgians reacting to clips of Walker making seemingly ridiculous statements about vampires, bulls and air from China (>). Meanwhile, Republicans argued Warnock voted with Biden 96% of the time and was "wrong for Georgia" because of "hateful rhetoric, extreme partisanship, and associations with far-left radicals (+). Over one million Georgians voted in person in the early voting period which ran to Dec. 2 (+). On Election Day there were some long lines, but the voting was generally smooth. On Election Night the results teetered back and forth between Warnock and Walker before CNN projected Warnock as the winner shortly before 10:30 p.m. (1, 2). Six percent fewer votes were cast in the runoff (3.54 million compared to 3.96 million, a difference of 420,347). When the vote totals were finalized, Warnock prevailed by 2.81 percentage points. Campaign Managers: Raphael Warnock: Quentin Fulks Herschel Walker: Scott Paradise See also: Marc Caputo. "Inside the turbulent, doomed campaign of Herschel Walker." NBC News, Dec. 8, 2022. Jasmine Cui and Allan Smith. "Map: High turnout powered Warnock to victory in Georgia Senate runoff." NBC News, Dec. 7, 2022. Jonathan Weisman. "5 Key Factors That Will Decide the Georgia Senate Runoff." The New York Times, Dec. 6, 2022. Stuart Rothenberg. "Rothenberg's best and worst of 2022." Roll Call, Dec. 6, 2022. [Opinion] Jeremy Collins. "My God, Herschel Walker, What Have You Become?" Esquire, Dec. 5, 2022. Brandon Gillespie. "'WHEN WOMEN WORK, WE WIN': GOP firebrands rally Georgia women to support Walker in runoff over 'shady' Warnock." Fox News, Dec. 3, 2022. Zeke Miller and Bill Barrow. "To boost Georgia's Warnock, Biden heads to Massachusetts." AP, Dec. 2, 2022. Aaron Blake. "Herschel Walker is a very bad candidate. Could he still win?" The Washington Post, Dec. 2, 2022. Roger Sollenberger. "Herschel Walker Ex Comes Forward: He Attacked Me in a Rage." Daily Beast, Dec. 1, 2022. Tom Kertscher. "Ad Watch: The context of Herschel Walker's comments about vampires, a bull, China's air." PolitiFact, Dec. 1, 2022. Marquise Francis. "'Ridiculous': How a viral Warnock ad used Walker's own words against him." Yahoo! News, Dec. 1, 2022. Greg Bluestein. "Herschel Walker's stumbles complicate final stretch of his runoff bid." The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, Nov. 30, 2022. Martin Pengelly. "'I live in Texas': Herschel Walker speech adds to Georgia Senate run problems." The Guardian, Nov. 30, 2022. Bill Lueders. "Ten Things the GOP Loves About Herschel Walker." The Bulwark, Nov. 29, 2022. Michael C. Bender. "Trump Plans Limited Role in Georgia Senate Runoff." The New York Times, Nov. 28, 2022. Eugene Daniels, Rachel Bade and Ryan Lizza. "POLITICO Playbook: Is the Georgia runoff a done deal?" Politico, Nov. 23, 2022. Asawin Suebsaeng and Nikki McCann Ramirez. "Trump Is Pissed Republicans Keep Telling Him to Stay Away from Georgia." Rolling Stone, Nov. 20, 2022. Alex Isenstadt. "McConnell turns to Brian Kemp to help save Herschel Walker in Georgia runoff." Politico, Nov. 10, 2022. |
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