GEORGIA
     Nov. 8, 2022 U.S. Senate                                                    Dec. 6, 2022 Senate runoff >

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Raphael Warnock (D) i
1,946,117
49.44%
Herschel Walker (R)
1,908,442 48.49%
Chase Oliver (L)
81,365
2.07%

3,935,924

Registration:  6,953,485.  Ballots Cast:  3,964,926.
Plurality:  37,675 votes (0.96 percentage points)

 GA Secretary of State




Notes: 
Sen. Raphael Warnock (D), elected in the Jan. 5, 2021 runoff, is seeking a full term.  He faced former pro-football running back and UGA football star Herschel Walker (R) as well as Chase Oliver (L), a 37-year old former Democrat who works in import services for a shipping firm and was a candidate for Congress in 2020.  Warnock finished first by a narrow margin but fell short of the 50-percent plus one requirement, forcing the Dec. 6 runoff.

In early 2022 Warnock was seen by political observers as
the most vulnerable incumbent Senator in 2022.  Walker is a legendary figure in Georgia, but he is also a first-time candidate and his flaws became apparent as the campaign progressed.  Media and critics raised questions about everything from his struggles with mental illness to his business record to his policy chops (+).  On Oct. 4, 2022 his campaign suffered a couple of significant hits.  The Daily Beast reported that Walker, who has espoused a strong pro-life position during his campaign, had paid for his girlfriend to have an abortion in 2009.  Following that report Walker's son Christian, a conservative social media influencer, weighed in with sharply critical comments as well.  Meanwhile, a PAC supporting Walker ran an ad featuring Mar. 2020 footage of Warnock's ex-wife tearfully recounting a domestic violence incident.  Warnock was also challenged about conditions at a low-income apartment building owned by his church.

Warnock and Walker debated in Savannah on Oct. 14, hosted by WSAV-TV (Nexstar Media) (>).
  Warnock and Oliver participated in the Atlanta Press Club Loudermilk-Young Debate Series on Oct. 16, while Walker, charging the debate host was biased, declined to appear and was represented by an empty podium (>).

Neither Trump nor Biden campaigned in Georgia.  Former President Obama rallied with Warnock, gubernatorial nominee Stacey Abrams and Democrats in College Park, just south of Atlanta, on Oct. 28 (+).  Those campaigning with Walker included former Gov. Nikki Haley (SC) in Norcross, northeast of Atlanta on Sept. 9 (>), Sens. Rick Scott (FL) and Tom Cotton (AR) in Carrollton, west of Atlanta, on Oct. 11 (>), and Haley in Hiram, northwest of Atlanta, on Nov. 6.

Voters saw lots of ads.  Wesleyan Media Project reported that in Georgia between Sept. 5 and Oct. 30 there were 65,871 Senate ad airings, the most of any state.  Democrats had a sizeable advantage: 38,729 pro-Democrat ad airings to 27,142 pro-Republican; however, pro-Republican group airings far outpaced those by pro-Democratic groups.  From Jan. 6, 2021 to Oct. 30, 2022, Atlanta was the number four market in the country for total federal and governor ad airings; of 88,554 total airings, 43,360 were from the U.S. Senate race (>).

Open Secrets reported this was the second most expensive Senate race of the 2022 cycle after Pennsylvania, with spending by the campaigns and outside groups totaling $254.7 million, including $108.0 by the campaigns and $146.6 in outside spending. 
Through Oct. 19, the Warnock campaign raised $98.7 million, spent $76.0 million, and had cash on hand of $10.5 million compared to $37.5 million raised, $32.1 million spent, and $5.4 million on hand for the Walker campaign (>).  (The Warnock campaign raised $29.8 million by the end of 2021, and $13.6 million in the first quarter of 2022, which it said was a record for money raised by a U.S. Senate candidate in the first quarter of an election year). 

According to Open Secrets outside groups accounted for 57.6% of spending (>).  Seventeen groups invested $1 million or more in the race.  Top groups on the Democratic side were Georgia Honor ($38.4M), DSCC ($10.8M) and VoteVets.org ($7.0M), and on the Republican side Senate Leadership Fund ($38.6M), Americans for Prosperity Action ($10.1M) and NRSC ($6.4M).

May 24 Primaries
Walker announced his candidacy in an Aug. 25, 2021 video
(>), and consistently led the Republican field by a very wide margin.  Former President Trump endorsed Walker on Sept. 2, 2021.  Trump rallied with Walker and other endorsed candidates in Perry on Sept. 25, 2021 (>) and in Commerce on Mar. 26, 2022 (>).  Others running in the primary included Agriculture Commissioner Gary Black; Latham Sadler, a former NAVY SEAL officer who served as director of intelligence programs in the Trump White House; construction company owner Kelvin King; former state Rep. Josh Clark; and retired Army Brigadier Gen. and pastor Jon McColumn.  Walker skipped all primary debates (>), but went on to win the primary with more than two-thirds of the vote.   Of 1,178,625 votes tallied, Walker won 68.1% followed by Black (13.35%), Saddler (8.86%), Clark (3.96%), King (3.22%) and McColumn (2.43%).

In the Democratic primary Warnock trounced little-known and underfunded opponent Tamara Johnson-Shealey, garnering more than 96.04% of the 731,594 votes tallied.


Campaign Managers:
Raphael Warnock:  Quentin Fulks
(July 2021)  Senior political advisor to JB for Governor from Nov. 2018.  President and executive director at Think Big Illinois from Feb. 2019.  Chairman and executive director on Vote Yes For Fairness (IL), Sept. 2019-Dec. 2020.  Deputy campaign manager on JB Pritzker for Governor (IL), Apr. 2017-Nov. 2018.  Deputy political director (Dec. 2016-May 2017) and political content and special projects manager (June 2015-Dec. 2016) at Priorities USA.  While pursuing his M.A. in 2014-15, Fulks worked as campaigns assistant at EMILY's List, political assistant at the DCCC and intern for Steny Hoyer.  M.A. in American government and politics from American University, 2015; B.A. in political science and government from Georgia Southwestern State University, 2012.  twitter

Herschel Walker:  Scott Paradise
Principal at Mine Creek Strategies in Atlanta from Jan. 2014.  Communications director in the Ofice of GA Lt. Gov, Jan.-Oct. 2013.  Campaign manager on Rick W. Allen for Congress (Augusta), Nov. 2011-Sept. 2012.  Camapign manager on Steve Simpson for Attorney General (MS), June-Dec. 2011.  Director of government relations for Hartman Oil Company, Jan.-Nov. 2011.  Studied business finance at the University of Kansas.  twitter


See also:
Wesleyan Media Project.  "4.3M TV Ads With Spending Nearing $3B." Nov. 3, 2022.

Shannon McCaffrey.  "An apartment building takes center stage in Georgia's U.S. Senate race."  Atlanta Journal-Constitution, Oct. 18, 2022.

Daniel Dale.  "Fact check: Herschel Walker's false and misleading recent claims."  CNN, Oct. 11, 2022.

Jonathan Bernstein.  "Why Republicans Wound Up With Herschel Walker."  Bloomberg, Oct. 7, 2022.

Heather Schwedel.  "Herschel Walker Battle With His MAGA-Influencer Son, Explained."  Slate, Oct. 4, 2022.

Meridith McGraw, Natalie Allison and Sam Stein.  "Walker's team knew of an abortion allegation months before it surfaced."  Politico, Oct. 4, 2022.

Roger Sollenberger.  "'Pro-Life' Herschel Walker Paid for Girlfriend's Abortion."  Daily Beast, Oct. 4, 2022.

Mark Niesse.  "In battleground Georgia, new voters on the rise before '22 election."  The Seattle Times, Sept. 4, 2022.

Shannon McCaffrey.  "Chase Oliver could send Georgia's Senate race to a runoff – he's OK with that."  The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, Sept. 1, 2022.

Amy Eskind.  "Off the Field, Herschel Walker Fumbles: Inside the Hail Mary Attempt to Have a Football Star Flip the Senate."  People, July 26, 2022.

Shannon McCaffrey.  "Herschel Walker's mental health battle raises questions about treatment."  Atlanta Journal-Constitution, May 4, 2022.

Abraham Kenmore.  "'Let Herschel be Herschel': Walker's icon status brings him out of Trump's shadow in U.S. Senate race."  The Augusta Chronicle, Apr. 29, 2022.

Simone Pathe.  "The 10 Senate seats most likely to flip in 2022."  CNN, Mar. 27, 2022.









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