Nov. 3, 2020 U.S. Senate Races

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At Stake: 35 Seats
Before Nov. 3: 53R, 45D and 2I.

AL  -  AK  -  AZ(s)  -  AR  -  CO  -  DE  -  GA  -  GA(s)  -  ID  -  IL  -  IA  -  KS  -  KY  -  LA  -  ME  -   MA  -  MI  -  MN  - MS  -  MT  -  NE  -  NH  -  NJ  -  NM  -  NC  -  OK  -  OR  -  RI  -  SC  -  SD  -  TN  -  TX  -  VA  -  WV  -  WY  -  Jan. 5 GA runoffs

Democrats Republicans Third Party/Independent
Alabama

R+





Alaska
note: Dr. Al Gross, running as an independent, was also the Democratic nominee.




Arizona (s)

D+





Arkansas
[no candidate] missing




Colorado

D+





Delaware
missing




Georgia
missing



see also runoff, below





Georgia (s)






Idaho





Illinois





Iowa






Kansas


 





Kentucky





Louisiana
missing [no lit. produced]




Maine




Massachusetts







Michigan






Minnesota





Mississippi







Montana





Nebraska
    




New Hampshire





New Jersey
missing  




New Mexico





North Carolina





Oklahoma
missing




Oregon
missing




Rhode Island




South Carolina





South Dakota





Tennessee





Texas
missing




Virginia





West Virginia





Wyoming




Georgia
runoffs


2D+


2020 was a difficult cycle for literature.  The COVID-19 pandemic limited in-person campaigning and canvassing and as a result a number of campaigns did not produce introductory lit. pieces.  The campaign manager for one of the Democratic U.S. Senate races noted, "Because the only canvassing we did during the general election was GOTV (because of covid), we don't real have general election lit."  The GOTV pieces typically do not have a lot of substance.  A few mail pieces and several primary pieces are included above.

 
Thank you to the many people who have helped make this page possible.

After Nov. 3: 50R, 46D 2I and 2tbd.
After Jan. 5:
50R, 48D 2I
.
  Margin of Victory in Percentage Points
25.01 +
20.01-25.0
15.01-20.0
10.01-15.0
5.01-10.0
0-5.0
0-5.0
5.01-10.0
10.01-15.0
15.01-20.0
20.01-25.0
25.01 +
MA 33.11
RI 33.12
DE 20.83
NH 15.65
IL 16.06
NJ 16.31
OR 17.59
VA 12.08
MN 5.24
NM 6.11
CO 9.32*

GA 1.22*
MI 1.68
GA(s) 2.08*
AZ 2.35*

NC 1.75
IA 6.59
ME 8.59
TX 9.64
MS 9.97
MT 10.02
SC 10.27
KS 11.43
AK 12.71
KY 17.53

AL 20.36 TN 27.04
ID 29.38
OK 30.16
SD 31.48
AR 33.06
NE 38.31
LA 40.30**
WV 43.28
WY 46.09
   *Seat changed parties. Georgia numbers are for the runoffs.  **Cassidy 59.32% in jungle primary.
   


OVERVIEW [more]
Balance before: 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats and 2 Independents.

35 seats at stake: 12 held by Democrats, 23 by Republicans.

4 seats open due to retirement: 1 Democrat, 3 Republicans.
  Democrat: Tom Udall (NM).  Republicans: Pat Roberts (KS), Lamar Alexander (TN), Mike Enzi (WY).
 

No incumbents were defeated in primaries.

5 incumbents defeated in the general election: 1 Democrat, 4 Republicans
.
  
Democrat: Doug Jones (AL).  Republicans: Martha McSally (AZ), Cory Gardner (CO), David Perdue (GA), Kelly Loeffler (GA).

No open seats flipped.


9 new Senators elected: 5 Democrats, 4 Republicans.
  5 Democrats:
Mark Kelly (AZ), John Hickenlooper (CO), Ben Ray Lujan (NM), Jon Ossoff (GA), Raphael Warnock (GA).
   4 Republicans: Tommy Tuberville (AL), Roger Marshall (KS), Bill Hagerty (TN), Cynthia Lummis (WY).


Balance after: 50 Republicans, 48 Democrats and 2 Independents.






HIGHLIGHTS
  • Democrats had high hopes they would be able to reclaim the majority as part of a repudiation of Trump.  They pointed to half a dozen or more seats in play; even "red" states such as Kansas, Kentucky and South Carolina were seen as competitive.  Democrats also enjoyed a significant cash advantage.  However, when the results were tallied, Republican candidates prevailed in most of the targeted races.  Control of the Senate came down to the two runoffs in Georgia. Trump's post-election crusade to overturn the election contributed to a perfect storm, and Democrats improbably, unbelievably won both seats and the narrowest of majorities.
  • The most expensive race of the cycle (and in American history) was the Perdue-Ossoff contest in Georgia which went to a Jan. 5 runoff.  According to the Center for Responsive Politics, spending in that race totaled $505.2 million.  The other top ten races were the Georgia special election (Loeffler-Warnock) $363.2 million, North Carolina $295.8 million, South Carolina $272.8 million, Iowa $258.7 million, Arizona $255.7 million, Maine $206.0 million, Michigan $197.1 million, Montana $190.1 million, and Kentucky $187.5 million. >  Outside spending exceeded spending by the campaigns in seven of the top ten races (the exceptions were South Carolina, Arizona and Kentucky).
  • Looking at spending by just the Democratic and Republican candidates' campaign committees in the general election, including the "jungle" contests for Louisiana and the Georgia special election, the Center for Responsive Politics found the Democratic candidates spent $1.82 billion to $1.09 billion for Republican candidates. >  The Center reported on Nov. 4 that, "Democratic Senate candidates got 41 percent of their money from small donors compared to Republicans’ 28 percent."  Further, Democratic Senate candidates raised 80.3% percent of their money from out-of-state donors compared to 66.7% for Republicans. >
  • The closest Senate race of the cycle was in Georgia, where Jon Ossoff (D) forced a runoff with Sen. David Perdue (R).
  • Of the 69 major party nominees, 21 were women (30.4%): 12 of 34 Democrats or 35.3% (2 incumbents, 3 open seat and 7 challengers) and 9 of 35 Republicans or 25.7% (6 incumbents, 1 open seat and 2 challengers).  Two incumbent women were defeated (McSally and Loeffler) and one women won an open seat (Lummis).  None of the nine women challengers won.  In four races, both major party nominees were women (IA, ME, WV, WY).  See CAWP. >
  • The strongest showing by a third party or independent candidate was Ricky Dale Harrington Jr. (L) in Arkansas.  The Democratic challenger to Sen. Tom Cotton (R) dropped out right before the filing deadline, leaving Harrington as the only alternative.  Cotton won by 793,871 (66.53%) to 399,390 (33.47%).


see also:campaign managers


_________

A Most Basic Content Analysis

 – number of words and most frequently appearing words –

Dem. texts, clean text  |  Rep. texts, clean text   [PDF]

  • Applying wordcounter.net to the texts showed Democratic lit. pieces had an average of 271 words and Republican lit. pieces an average of 275 words.  Words in logos are not included.
  • Applying wordart.com to combined Democratic texts and combined Republican texts showed the top 15 words by candidates of each party.  Common words (the, of, is...), disclaimer ("Paid...") and state and candidate names are included in the total words, but not in the ranked listing.


Democratic candidates
8,938
Republican candidates
10,167
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
Vote
Senate
Work
Protect
Family
State
People
Health
Fight
Job
Healthcare
Expand
Access
School
Afford
87
81
66
50
37
36
35
34
33
33
27
28
28
26
26
Senate
Support
President
Fight
Job
Work
Tax
Protect
Trump
Family
Business
Vote
Conservative
New
Military
102
60
58
52
52
51
48
46
42
41
38
36
35
35
35

  • As discussed on the Governor races page, although individual words such as COVID, coronavirus and pandemic did not make the top 15 tally list, a significant number of lit. pieces do refer to the pandemic.
  • "Vote" topped the Democratic list because quite several of the Democratic pieces were GOTV pieces with little substance and more emphasis on making a plan to vote; the Republican sample included very little of this kind of piece.
  • Excluding "Senate," the top words across candidates from both parties combined was "work" followed by "protect." 
  •  Health/health care was a top issue for Democrats (health, healthcare, expand, access) while support for President Trump was a top issue for Republicans (president, support, Trump). "Trump" even finished above "family" and conservative" in the sample. 
  • In addition to the mentions of President Trump, six Republican candidates included images of Trump in their basic lit. pieces.

 

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