Nov. 3, 2020 Senate Races

Gov.
 Sen.
2021
 x
2020
 x
2019
 x
2018
 x x
2017
 1, 2 x
2016
 x
 x
2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

1992

1991

1990

1989


At Stake: 35 Seats
Before Nov. 3: 53R, 45D and 2I.

AL  -  AK  -  AZ(s)  -  AR  -  CO  -  DE  -  GA  -  GA(s)  -  ID  -  IL  -  IA  -  KS  -  KY  -  LA  -  ME  -   MA  -  MI  -  MN  - MS  -  MT  -  NE  -  NH  -  NJ  -  NM  -  NC  -  OK  -  OR  -  RI  -  SC  -  SD  -  TN  -  TX  -  VA  -  WV  -  WY  -  Jan. 5 GA runoffs

 Democrats Republicans Third Party/Independent
Alabama

R+




Alaska
 note: Dr. Al Gross, running as an independent, was also the Democratic nominee.




Arizona (s)

D+




Arkansas
 [no candidate] missing




Colorado

D+




Delaware
 missing




Georgia
 missing



see also runoff, below




Georgia (s)





Idaho




Illinois




Iowa





Kansas


 




Kentucky




Louisiana
 missing [no lit. produced]




Maine




Massachusetts




Michigan





Minnesota




Mississippi




Montana




Nebraska
     




New Hampshire




New Jersey
 missing  




New Mexico




North Carolina




Oklahoma
 missing




Oregon
 missing




Rhode Island




South Carolina




South Dakota




Tennessee




Texas
 missing




Virginia




West Virginia




Wyoming




Georgia
runoffs

2D+

2020 was a difficult cycle for literature.  The COVID-19 pandemic limited in-person campaigning and canvassing and as a result a number of campaigns did not produce introductory lit. pieces.  The campaign manager for one of the Democratic U.S. Senate races noted, "Because the only canvassing we did during the general election was GOTV (because of covid), we don't real have general election lit."  The GOTV pieces typically do not have a lot of substance.  A few mail pieces and several primary pieces are included above.

 Thank you to the many people who have helped make this page possible.

After Nov. 3: 50R, 46D,  2I and 2tbd.
After Jan. 5: 50R, 48D,  2I.
  Margin of Victory in Percentage Points
25.01 +
 20.01-25.0
 15.01-20.0
 10.01-15.0
 5.01-10.0
 0-5.0
 0-5.0
 5.01-10.0
 10.01-15.0
 15.01-20.0
 20.01-25.0
 25.01 +
MA 33.11
RI 33.12
 		DE 20.83
 NH 15.65
IL 16.06
NJ 16.31
OR 17.59
 		VA 12.08
 MN 5.24
NM 6.11
CO 9.32*
 GA 1.22*
MI 1.68
GA(s) 2.08*
AZ 2.35*
 NC 1.75
 IA 6.59
ME 8.59
TX 9.64
MS 9.97
 		MT 10.02
SC 10.27
KS 11.43
AK 12.71 		KY 17.53

 		AL 20.36 TN 27.04
ID 29.38
OK 30.16
SD 31.48
AR 33.06
NE 38.31
LA 40.30**
WV 43.28
WY 46.09
   *Seat changed parties. Georgia numbers are for the runoffs.  **Cassidy 59.32% in jungle primary.
   

 

Several More Facts & Figs
  • The most expensive race of the cycle (and in American history) was the Perdue-Ossoff contest in Georgia which went to a Jan. 5 runoff.  According to the Center for Responsive Politics, spending in that race totaled $505.2 million.  The other top ten races were the Georgia special election (Loeffler-Warnock) $363.2 million, North Carolina $295.8 million, South Carolina $272.8 million, Iowa $258.7 million, Arizona $255.7 million, Maine $206.0 million, Michigan $197.1 million, Montana $190.1 million, and Kentucky $187.5 million. >  Outside spending exceeded spending by the campaigns in seven of the top ten races (the exceptions were South Carolina, Arizona and Kentucky).
  • Looking at spending by just the Democratic and Republican candidates' campaign committees in the general election, including the "jungle" contests for Louisiana and the Georgia special election, the Center for Responsive Politics found the Democratic candidates spent $1.82 billion to $1.09 billion for Republican candidates. >  The Center reported on Nov. 4 that, "Democratic Senate candidates got 41 percent of their money from small donors compared to Republicans’ 28 percent."  Further, Democratic Senate candidates raised 80.3% percent of their money from out-of-state donors compared to 66.7% for Republicans. >
  • The closest Senate race of the cycle was in Georgia, where Jon Ossoff (D) forced a runoff with Sen. David Perdue (R).
  • Of the 69 major party nominees, 21 were women: 12D (2 incumbents, 3 open seat and  7 challengers) and 9R (6 incumbents, 1 open seat and 2 challengers).  Two incumbent women were defeated (McSally and Loeffler) and one women won an open seat (Lummis).  None of the nine women challengers won.  In four races, both major party nominees were women (IA, ME, WV, WY).  See CAWP. >
  • The strongest showing by a third party or independent candidate was Ricky Dale Harrington Jr. (L) in Arkansas.  The Democratic challenger to Sen. Tom Cotton (R) dropped out right before the filing deadline, leaving Harrington as the only alternative.  Cotton won by 793,871 (66.53%) to 399,390 (33.47%).

 see also: campaign managers

_______

 

A Most Basic Content Analysis

 – number of words and most frequently appearing words –

Dem. texts, clean text  |  Rep. texts, clean text   [PDF]
  • Applying wordcounter.net to the texts showed Democratic lit. pieces had an average of 271 words and Republican lit. pieces an average of 275 words.  Words in logos are not included.
  • Applying wordart.com to combined Democratic texts and combined Republican texts showed the top 15 words by candidates of each party.  Common words (the, of, is...), disclaimer ("Paid...") and state and candidate names are included in the total words, but not in the ranked listing.

    		Democratic candidates
    		 8,938
    		 Republican candidates
    		 10,167
    1.
    2.
    3.
    4.
    5.
    6.
    7.
    8.
    9.
    10.
    11.
    12.
    13.
    14.
    15.
    		 Vote
    Senate
    Work
    Protect
    Family
    State
    People
    Health
    Fight
    Job
    Healthcare
    Expand
    Access
    School
    Afford
    		 87
    81
    66
    50
    37
    36
    35
    34
    33
    33
    27
    28
    28
    26
    26
    		 Senate
    Support
    President
    Fight
    Job
    Work
    Tax
    Protect
    Trump
    Family
    Business
    Vote
    Conservative
    New
    Military
    		 102
    60
    58
    52
    52
    51
    48
    46
    42
    41
    38
    36
    35
    35
    35

  • As discussed on the Governor races page, although individual words such as COVID, coronavirus and pandemic did not make the top 15 tally list, a significant number of lit. pieces do refer to the pandemic.
  • "Vote" topped the Democratic list because quite several of the Democratic pieces were GOTV pieces with little substance and more emphasis on making a plan to vote; the Republican sample included very little of this kind of piece.
  • Excluding "Senate," the top words across candidates from both parties combined was "work" followed by "protect." 
  •  Health/health care was a top issue for Democrats (health, healthcare, expand, access) while support for President Trump was a top issue for Republicans (president, support, Trump). "Trump" even finished above "family" and conservative" in the sample. 
  • In addition to the mentions of President Trump, six Republican candidates included images of Trump in their basic lit. pieces.


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