Edwards Believed That “He Was On Solid Footing To Win It All In The Primary,” He Was Wrong

Dan Fagan, The Advocate: “Despite Edwards enjoying mostly favorable media coverage and having a ton of cash, a majority of Louisiana voters rejected him. Rispone and Abraham received a total of 51%, with Edwards getting only 46.6%.” (Dan Fagan, “Forget The Polls, John Bel Edwards An Underdog In Louisiana Governor’s Race,” The Advocate, 10/15/19)

Edwards Predicted That He Would Win The Election Outright By Receiving At Least 50% Of The Vote In The Jungle Primary.“Edwards and many of his biggest supporters thought he would win re-election Saturday night by taking at least 50% of the vote.” (Tyler Bridges and Will Sentell, “Eddie Rispone Won A Spot In The Runoff Against Gov. John Bel Edwards; Trump May Be The Reason Why,” The Advocate, 10/13/19)

• Sam Hanna Jr.: The Edwards Campaign Stated That He Was “Polling At No Less Than 51 Percent,” They Were Wrong. “In the weeks leading up to the primary election, it appeared Edwards was on solid footing to win it all in the primary, or at least that’s what Edwards’ allies were saying based on their own polling as well as polling conducted for so-called independent businessmen and the media. They were all wrong. Big-time. Or perhaps they all colluded to intimidate voters into voting for Edwards by continuously leaking to hanger-ons and gossipers and such that Edwards was polling at no less than 51 percent heading into the Oct. 12 election. In the final three days prior to the primary, Edwards was safely sitting on 52 percent, according to ‘sources’ who said that’s what Edwards’ own pollster was saying.” (Sam Hanna Jr., “Is 46 The New 52?,” The Ouachita Citizen, 10/16/17)

Stephanie Grace, The Advocate: Edwards “Already Told” His Story To Voters And It “Wasn’t Enough.” “The bad news is that Edwards already told that story, and it wasn’t enough to get him to the magic number he needed to prevent a runoff. To win outright in Saturday’s primary, he needed a majority of the people who showed up to cast their ballots for him. Instead, a majority chose another candidate.” (Stephanie Grace, “John Bel Edwards Has A Good Story; Problem Is That He Already Told It,” The Advocate, 10/15/19)

Edwards’ Campaign Turnout Efforts “Sucked”

Clancy DuBos, Gambit: “Edwards’ turnout effort sucked.” (Clancy DuBos, “The Louisiana Governor’s Race – Looking Back, And Looking Ahead,” Gambit, 10/15/19)

• Edwards Cannot Win, Unless He “Seriously Boost[s]” Turnout. “Bottom Line: Donald Trump wasn’t president in 2015, and David Vitter isn’t Edwards’ opponent in 2019. Edwards needs to seriously boost his GOTV efforts in New Orleans and among minority voters, and he needs to get a share of Ralph Abraham’s primary vote.” (Clancy DuBos, “The Louisiana Governor’s Race – Looking Back, And Looking Ahead,” Gambit, 10/15/19)

Ryan Matsumo, Contributing Analyst, Inside Elections: “Edwards’ vote share dropped in 62 of 64 parishes.” (Ryan Matsumoto, Twitter, 10/13/19)

Edwards’ “Baggage Of A “Having An Embarrassing Economic Record,” Means He Will Need A “Miracle” To Win

Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: “As a result of Saturday’s jungle primary, the Crystal Ball has changed its rating for the Louisiana gubernatorial race to Toss-up from Leans Democratic.” (J. Miles Coleman, “Louisiana Governor: Nationalized Trends Emerge As Runoff Looms,” University Of Virginia Center For Politics, 10/15/19)

Dan Fagan, The Advocate: Given His “Baggage,” “Edwards Now must Be Considered The Underdog. ”In a state that’s last in just about everything, Edwards the incumbent versus Rispone the outsider is not a match-up favoring the governor. With his baggage of having an embarrassing economic record and an unpopular party affiliation, Edwards must now be considered the underdog in the race regardless of what the pollsters say.” (Dan Fagan, “Forget The Polls, John Bel Edwards An Underdog In Louisiana Governor’s Race,” The Advocate, 10/15/19)

Stephanie Grace, The Advocate: It Will Be “Tough” For Edwards To Win.“But don’t let Edwards’ outward confidence, or the early internal polls he’s releasing, fool you; getting to 50% plus one on Nov. 16 is going to be tough. He’s going to have to get creative, because his path going to victory is no longer an obvious one.” (Stephanie Grace, “John Bel Edwards Has A Good Story; Problem Is That He Already Told It,” The Advocate, 10/15/19)

Sam Hanna Jr.: Edwards Will Need A “Miracle” To Be Reelected. “Do you believe in miracles? Gov. John Bel Edwards, a devout Catholic, probably does. He should, since it’s going to take a miracle or something close to it for Edwards to hold off Baton Rouge businessman Eddie Rispone in the Nov. 16 gubernatorial election.” (Sam Hanna Jr., “Is 46 The New 52?,” The Ouachita Citizen, 10/16/17)

Edwards’ Ties With “Extreme” National Democrats “Must Feel Like A Weight Around The Governor’s Neck”

Dan Fagan, The Advocate: Louisianans “Resoundingly Reject The Wackiness” Of Edwards’ Democratic Party. “Edwards’ apologists blame the governor’s disappointing night on increased turnout motivated by Trump’s rally the night before the election. Others bemoan the fact the state has become more ‘partisan.’ If by becoming more partisan you mean they resoundingly reject the wackiness of the increasingly hard-left leaning Democratic Party, then yes, they are more partisan. Edwards’ party is widely unpopular with a majority of Louisiana voters. And as each day passes, it seems to become more so.” (Dan Fagan, “Forget The Polls, John Bel Edwards An Underdog In Louisiana Governor’s Race,” The Advocate, 10/15/19)

• Edwards Belongs To A Political Party That Is “Now So Extreme.“ “National Democrats are now so extreme, it’s made it close to impossible for many in Louisiana, who typically lean right, to do anything but reject the Dems’ agenda and anyone associated with it. Given the Democrats’ soft embrace of infanticide, flirting with socialism and open borders, and pushing for impeachment without justification, Edwards’ party affiliation must feel like a weight around the governor’s neck, making it seem impossible for him to swim to the top.” (Dan Fagan, “Forget The Polls, John Bel Edwards An Underdog In Louisiana Governor’s Race,” The Advocate, 10/15/19)

• Since Louisiana adopted the open primary system in 1975 NO governor has been re-elected in a run-off election, and that trend will continue in 2019. 
• Nearly 52% of all voters cast a ballot for a Republican candidate for governor. Unlike 2015, Republicans are coming out of the primary united and are ready to end the failed administration of John Bel Edwards. Congressman Ralph Abraham immediately endorsed Eddie Rispone last night and the party is working together to win the run-off.  Moreover, Governor Edwards underperformed when compared to his 2015 runoff results, losing vote share in 62 of 64 parishes which is just more evidence that voters are hungry for change.
• Governor Edwards spent over $8 million on positive television ads touting his “record” and voters weren’t buying what he was trying to sell.  Louisiana’s economy is ranked dead last in the south, thousands of jobs have left the state, and the people recognize that the state is falling further behind.  His allies spent an additional nearly $7 million running attack ads against Eddie Rispone and Ralph Abraham.  Combined, they spent a staggering $15.2 million on media alone in an attempt to get to 50% in yesterday’s primary, as they recognize that no governor has ever won re-election in a run-off election.  For months they promoted “polls” and “internal strategy memos” that showed they would win outright.  They didn’t because a majority of voters recognize that Governor Edwards has failed and want new leadership.
• Leading race handicapping organizations immediately recognized the perilous position John Bel Edwards finds himself in by failing to avoid a runoff. The Cook Political Report and Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball both moved the race from “Lean Democrat” to “Toss Up” following the primary results.