MISSOURI
     Nov. 6, 2018 Senate

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Sen.3
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+Josh Hawley (R)
1,254,927
51.38%
Claire McCaskill (D) i
1,112,935
45.57%
Craig O'Dear (I)
34,398
1.41%
Japheth Campbell (L)
27,316
1.12%
Jo Crain (G)
12,706
0.524%
w/ins
7
0.00%

2,442,289

Plurality: 141,992 votes (5.81 percentage points).
MO Secretary of State




REPUBLICAN PICK-UP
Notes:
In 2016 Trump won the Missouri's 10 electoral votes with a margin of 18.63 percentage points, carrying all counties except St. Louis in the East, Jackson (Kansas City) in the West, and Boone in the center.  Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) thus faced a very difficult race as she sought a third term against challenger Attorney General Josh Hawley (R). 

Setting the stage for the 2018 campaign in Missouri, in the first part of the year politics in the "Show Me" state were roiled by scandals surrounding Gov. Eric Greitens (R), who eventually resigned effective June 1. 

McCaskill, 65, is a veteran politician, having served as state representative (1982-88), Jackson County prosecutor (1992-98) and state auditor (1998-2006) prior to her election to the Senate.  She won her first term in 2006 defeating Sen. Jim Talent (R) by 2.3 percentage points and benefited from U.S. Rep. Todd Akin (R)'s self-inflicted wounds in 2012.  Hawley, 39, was only elected to office in 2016.  He dominated the Aug. 7 Republican primary, garnering 58.6% of the vote. 
Also on the November ballot were Craig O'Dear (I), Japheth Campbell (L) and Jo Crain (G).

McCaskill, Hawley, O'Dear and Crain participated in a Sept. 14 debate in St. Louis organized by the Missouri Press Association (+); subsequently the two major party candidates debated on Oct. 18 in the studios of Nine Network of Public Media St. Louis (+) and in a third debate on Oct. 25 from KMBC 9 News in Kansas City (+).

President Trump made three visits to Missouri to rally for Hawley: Sep. 21 (Springfield
), Nov. 1 (Columbia) and Nov. 5 (Cape Girardeau) (+).

According to the Center for Responsive Politics, this was the third most expensive Senate race of the 2018 cycle after Florida and Texas (+); a total of $127.0 million was spent ($50.3 million by the campaigns and $76.7 million in outside spending).  The McCaskill campaign significantly outspent the Hawley campaign, reporting total receipts of $38.9 million and disbursements of $38.5 million compared to $11.7 million in receipts and.$11.2 million in disbursements for Hawley.  However, as the Center for Responsive Politics notes, Hawley "got the most outside support from a combination of dark money and partially-disclosing groups, which either don’t disclose all of their donors or accept money from dark money sources. He was boosted by $25 million in media expenditures from these groups, including more than $20 million from the Senate Leadership Fund super PAC...(+)."

Ethics concerns arose at several points.  In Junethe conservative Foundation for Accountability and Civic Trust raised questions about McCaskill's use of a private plane owned by her husband.  An Oct. 31 article in The Kansas City Star.
alleged that Hawley had allowed out of state political consultants to direct activities of his office with an eye toward his Senate campaign; the Democratic-leaning American Democracy Legal Fund filed a complaint with Missouri Secretary of State Ashcroft on Nov. 2, and Ashcroft launched an investigation on Dec. 7.

See:
Lindsey Wise, Jason Hancock and Steve Vockrodt.  "Out-of-state political consultants helped direct Josh Hawley's Missouri AG office."  The Kansas City Star, Oct. 31, 2018.
Alex Isenstadt.  "GOP golden boy mails it in."  Politico, May 15, 2018.


Campaign Managers:
Josh Hawley:  Kyle Plotkin

(Oct. 2017)  Senior director at Purple Strategies, Nov. 2016-Oct. 2017.  Managing director of strategic initiatives, Periscope™, by McKinsey and Company, April-Nov. 2016.  Communications director on Jindal for President, June-Nov. 2015.  Worked for over six year for Gov. Bobby Jindal (LA), serving as chief of staff (Mar. 2014-June 2015) and assistant chief of staff, communications director (Dec. 2011-Mar. 2014), and press secretary (Nov. 2008-Dec. 2011).  Deputy communications director on John Kennedy for U.S. Senate, April-Nov. 2008.  Policy analyst on Romney for President, Aug. 2006-Feb. 2008.  Research assistant at Public Opinion Strategies, Feb. 2005-June 2006.  B.A. in political science and American studies from University of Miami, 2004.

Claire McCaskill:  David Kirby
(July 2017)  Of counsel in the Jefferson City office of Lewis Rice LLC from June 2015.  Assistant Attorney General with the Missouri Attorney General's office, June 2012-June 2015.  Director of intergovernmental affairs with Sen. McCaskill, Jan. 2007-Aug. 2009.  National finance director on McCaskill's 2006 campaign, Aug. 2005-Dec. 2006.  Legislative assistant to Sen. Ken Salazar (CO), Feb.-Dec. 2005.  Deputy finance director on Salazar's 2004 U.S. Senate campaign.  J.D. from Washington University in St. Louis School of Law; B.A. from Catholic University of America.

Craig O'Dear:  Brady Quinn
Development officer for Intermountain Healthcare, May-Sept. 2017.  Utah field director on McMullin for President.  Communications strategy coordinator on Jonathan Johnson for Governor (UT), March-July 2016. Planning commissioner in South Jordan City, UT, April 2016-Sept. 2017.  Executive vice president at Camperworld in the Salt Lake City area, June 2014-July 2015.  High value claims case manager for eBay Inc., April 2013-June 2014.  B.A. in public relations from Brigham Young University, 2016.  Missionary, Dec. 2010-Dec. 2012.

 







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