Nov. 4, 2014 Senate Races

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...some of these pages still need notes.
At Stake: 36 Seats
Before Nov. 4: 53D, 45R and 2I.

AL  -  AK   -  AR  -  CO  -  DE  -  GA  -  HI(s)  -  ID  -  IL  -  IA  -  KS  -  KY  -  LA  -  ME  -   MA  -  MI  -  MN  - MS  -  MT  -  NE  -  NH  -  NJ  -  NM  -  NC  -  OK  -  OK(s)  -  OR  -  RI  -  SC  -  SC(s)  -  SD  -  TN  -  TX  -  VA  -  WV  -  WY

Democrats Republicans Third Party/Independent
Alabama


[no Democratic candidate]




Alaska

R+






Arkansas

R+





Colorado

R+





Delaware





Georgia




Hawaii (s)





Idaho





Illinois





Iowa

R+

 




Kansas
[Dem. nominee
Chad Taylor
withdrew Sept. 3]


 





Kentucky





Louisiana

R+





Maine

[missing Sen. Susan Collins]





Massachusetts







Michigan







Minnesota





Mississippi







Montana

R+





Nebraska




New Hampshire








New Jersey





New Mexico





North Carolina

R+





Oklahoma

 





Oklahoma (s)





Oregon





Rhode Island




South Carolina




South Carolina
(s)





South Dakota

R+




Tennessee





Texas





Virginia




West Virginia

R+





Wyoming





  Thank you to the many people who have helped make this page possible.

After Nov. 4/Dec. 6: 54R, 44D, 2I.
  Margin of Victory in Percentage Points
25.01 +
20.01-25.0
15.01-20.0
10.01-15.0
5.01-10.0
0-5.0
0-5.0
5.01-10.0
10.01-15.0
15.01-20.0
20.01-25.0
25.01 +
RI 41.34
HI 42.07
MA 23.88
OR 18.86
MN 10.24
IL 10.68
NM 11.12
MI 13.28
NJ 13.51
DE 13.60


VA 0.81
NH 3.24

NC 1.56*
CO 1.94*
AK 2.13*
GA 7.68
IA 8.34*
KS 10.62
LA 11.87*

KY 15.47
SC 15.48
AR 17.07*
MT 17.72*

SD 20.86*
MS 22.01
SCs 24.02
TX 27.20
WV 27.65*
TN 30.00
ID 30.66
NE 32.85
ME 36.96
OKs 38.87
OK 39.46
WY 54.74
AL 94.50
   *Seat changed parties.
   

 

Several More Facts & Figs
  • Republicans needed a net gain of six seats to gain control of the Senate.  They gained nine seats.  The map favored the GOP; Democrats were defending six seats in states Mitt Romney had won by large margins in 2012: Alaska (54.8 to 40.8), Arkansas (60.6 to 36.9), Louisiana (57.8 to 40.6), Montana (55.4 to 41.7), South Dakota (58.0 to 39.9) and West Virginia (62.3 to 35.5).  They lost in all of those as well as North Carolina, which Romney narrowly won (50.4 to 48.4), plus Colorado and Iowa. 
    Five incumbent U.S. Senators were defeated, all Democrats: Mark Begich (AK), Mark Pryor (AR), Mark Udall (CO), Kay Hagan (NC), and Mary Landrieu (LA).
  • Thirteen new U.S. Senators were elected.  There were 12 new Republicans: Dan Sullivan (AK), Tom Cotton (AR), Cory Gardner (CO), David Perdue (GA), Joni Ernst (IA), Bill Cassidy (LA), Steve Daines (MT), Ben Sasse (NE), Thom Tillis (NC), James Lankford (OK), Mike Rounds (SD) and Shelley Moore Capito (WV).  Gary Peters (MI) was the lone new Democrat.
    According to OpenSecrets.org (>), the most expensive Senate race occurred in North Carolina, where the campaigns spent $34.7 million and outside groups spent $80.5 million for a total of $115.2 million.  Eight other races tallied more than $50 million in total spending: Colorado ($101.8 million), Iowa ($85.3 million), Kentucky ($81.7 million), Arkansas ($66.3 million), Louisiana ($59.6 million, Alaska ($57.6 million), New Hampshire ($55.5 million), and Michigan ($51.4 million).
  • The closest Senate race of the cycle was in Virginia, where Ed Gillespie (R) fell just short of upsetting Sen. Mark Warner (D).
  • Of the 70 major party nominees, 15 were women (21.4%): 10 of 34 Democrats or 29.4% (3 incumbents, 4 open seat and 3 challengers) and 5 of 36 Republicans or 13.9% (1 incumbent, 3 open seat and 1 challenger).  Two incumbent women were defeated (Hagan and Landrieu) and one women won an open seat (Capito).  None of the four women challengers won.  In two races, both major party nominees were women (ME, WV). 
  • The strongest showing by a third party or independent candidate was Greg Orman (I) in Kansas.  The Democratic nominee running against Sen. Pat Roberts (R) dropped out at the filing deadline.

 _______


Content Overview


Three themes stand out in the 2014 literature:  1) Candidates of all parties agree Washington is broken.  2) With few exceptions, literature from Republican candidates has strong language against Obamacare.  A few examples: "Voted more than 100 times to stop Obamacare and wrote legislation to repeal it." [Thad Cochran].  "Voted against Obamacare 23 times" [Lamar Alexander].  "Lindsey Graham fought against Obamacare from Day One and has repeatedly voted against it in the U.S. Senate."  "Senator Inhofe is leading the charge against ObamaCare. This is the most dangerous liberal scheme ever perpetuated by Big Liberal Government. It must be gutted, repealed, defunded and replaced." 3) The Democratic literature does not have a lot to say about Obamacare; a major theme was protecting Social Security and Medicare.




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