Nov. 4, 2014 Senate Races

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At Stake: 36 Seats
Before Nov. 4: 53D, 45R and 2I.

AL  -  AK   -  AR  -  CO  -  DE  -  GA  -  HI(s)  -  ID  -  IL  -  IA  -  KS  -  KY  -  LA  -  ME  -   MA  -  MI  -  MN  - MS  -  MT  -  NE  -  NH  -  NJ  -  NM  -  NC  -  OK  -  OK(s)  -  OR  -  RI  -  SC  -  SC(s)  -  SD  -  TN  -  TX  -  VA  -  WV  -  WY

 Democrats Republicans Third Party/Independent
Alabama


 [no Democratic candidate]




Alaska

R+





Arkansas

R+




Colorado

R+




Delaware




Georgia




Hawaii (s)




Idaho




Illinois




Iowa

R+
 




Kansas
[Dem. nominee
Chad Taylor
withdrew Sept. 3]
 




Kentucky




Louisiana

R+




Maine

[missing Sen. Susan Collins]




Massachusetts




Michigan






Minnesota




Mississippi




Montana

R+




Nebraska




New Hampshire







New Jersey




New Mexico




North Carolina

R+




Oklahoma
 




Oklahoma (s)




Oregon




Rhode Island




South Carolina




South Carolina
(s)




South Dakota

R+




Tennessee




Texas




Virginia




West Virginia

R+




Wyoming






After Nov. 4/Dec. 6: 54R, 44D, 2I.


  Margin of Victory in Percentage Points
25.01 +
 20.01-25.0
 15.01-20.0
 10.01-15.0
 5.01-10.0
 0-5.0
 0-5.0
 5.01-10.0
 10.01-15.0
 15.01-20.0
 20.01-25.0
 25.01 +
RI 41.34
HI 42.07
 		MA 23.88
 OR 18.86
 		MN 10.24
IL 10.68
NM 11.12
MI 13.28
NJ 13.51
DE 13.60
VA 0.81
NH 3.24

 NC 1.56*
CO 1.94*
AK 2.13*
 		GA 7.68
IA 8.34*
 		KS 10.62
LA 11.87*
 KY 15.47
SC 15.48
AR 17.07*
MT 17.72*

 		SD 20.86*
MS 22.01
SCs 24.02
 		TX 27.20
WV 27.65*
TN 30.00
ID 30.66
NE 32.85
ME 36.96
OKs 38.87
OK 39.46
WY 54.74
AL 94.50
   *Seat changed parties.
   


2014 SENATE RACE OVERVIEW [more]

2014 was a standout year for Republicans. Needing a net gain of six seats to win control of the Senate, they gained nine seats.  The map favored the GOP; Democrats were defending six seats in states Mitt Romney had won by large margins in 2012: Alaska (54.8 to 40.8), Arkansas (60.6 to 36.9), Louisiana (57.8 to 40.6), Montana (55.4 to 41.7), South Dakota (58.0 to 39.9) and West Virginia (62.3 to 35.5).  They lost in all of those as well as North Carolina, which Romney narrowly won (50.4 to 48.4), plus Colorado and Iowa.  A key issue in many of these races was Obamacare. 

Balance before Nov. 4:  53 Democrats, 45 Republicans and 2 Independents.

36 seats at stake:  21 held by Democrats, 15 by Republicans.

8 retirements:  5 Democrats, 3 Republicans.
D: Tom Harkin (IA), Carl Levin (MI), Max Baucus (MT)*, Tim Johnson (SD), Jay Rockefeller (WV). 
R: Saxby Chambliss (GA), Mike Johanns (NE), Tom Coburn (OK). 
 
 0 incumbents defeated in primaries.

5 incumbents defeated in the general election:  5 Democrats.
   Mark Begich (AK), Mark Pryor (AR), Mark Udall (CO), Kay Hagan (NC), and Mary Landrieu (LA).

4 open seats flipped, all Democrat to Republican.
IA (Harkin) Joni Ernst, MT (Baucus/Walsh) Daines, SD (Johnson) Mike Rounds, WV (Rockefeller) Shelley Moore Capito

13 new Senators elected:  12 Republicans, 1 Democrat.
R: Dan Sullivan (AK), Tom Cotton (AR), Cory Gardner (CO), David Perdue (GA), Joni Ernst (IA), Bill Cassidy (LA), Steve Daines (MT), Ben Sasse (NE), Thom Tillis (NC), James Lankford (OK), Mike Rounds (SD) and Shelley Moore Capito (WV).  D: Gary Peters (MI).
 
Races won:  Democrats 12, Republicans 24.

Balance after Dec. 6 LA runoff:  54 Republicans, 44 Democrats and 2 Independents.




HIGHLIGHTS
  • According to OpenSecrets.org (>), the most expensive Senate race occurred in North Carolina, where the campaigns spent $34.7 million and outside groups spent $80.5 million for a total of $115.2 million.  Eight other races tallied more than $50 million in total spending: Colorado ($101.8 million), Iowa ($85.3 million), Kentucky ($81.7 million), Arkansas ($66.3 million), Louisiana ($59.6 million, Alaska ($57.6 million), New Hampshire ($55.5 million), and Michigan ($51.4 million).
  • The closest Senate race of the cycle was in Virginia, where Ed Gillespie (R) fell just short of upsetting Sen. Mark Warner (D).

  • A dozen Senate races were very uncompetitive, being decided by margins of more than 25 percentage points
    •
  • Of the 70 major party nominees, 15 were women (21.4%).  Ten of 34 Democrats or 29.4% were women (3 incumbents, 4 open seat and 3 challengers), but only one won, Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (NH), while Sens. Kay Hagan (NC) and Mary Landrieu (LA) were defeated.  Five of 36 Republicans or 13.9% were women (1 incumbent, 3 open seat and 1 challenger).  Sen. Susan Collins (ME) won re-election; Joni Ernst (IA) and Shelley Moore Capito (WV) won in open seats.  None of the four women challengers won.  In two races, both major party nominees were women (ME, WV). 
  • The strongest showing by a third party or independent candidate was Greg Orman (I) at 42.53% in Kansas.  The Democratic nominee running against Sen. Pat Roberts (R) dropped out at the filing deadline.



   see also: campaign managers

THEMES

Three themes stand out in the 2014 Senate literature:  1) Candidates of all parties agree Washington is broken.  2) With few exceptions, literature from Republican candidates has strong language against Obamacare.  A few examples: "Voted more than 100 times to stop Obamacare and wrote legislation to repeal it." [Thad Cochran].  "Voted against Obamacare 23 times" [Lamar Alexander].  "Lindsey Graham fought against Obamacare from Day One and has repeatedly voted against it in the U.S. Senate."  "Senator Inhofe is leading the charge against ObamaCare. This is the most dangerous liberal scheme ever perpetuated by Big Liberal Government. It must be gutted, repealed, defunded and replaced." 3) The Democratic literature does not have a lot to say about Obamacare; a major theme was protecting Social Security and Medicare.
 

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