- Nov. 4, 2014 Kentucky U.S. Senate « Allison for Kentucky Memo
Allison for Kentucky
TO: Interested Parties
FR: Jonathan Hurst, Campaign Manager
RE: Grimes Positioned for Strong Finish in #KYSen
DATE: October 15, 2014
Executive Summary: The 15-month campaign plan we’ve put together and ridden to a statistical tie entering the final 20-day stretch of the election remains in place—and we’re confident Kentucky voters will choose a fresh, independent voice to represent them in Washington over the embodiment of Washington gridlock and dysfunction. Recent process stories and pundit hyperventilating have focused on issues proven to have no impact on the fundamentals of this race – and ignore key factors and data that will determine the actual outcome.
KEY DATA POINTS TO PUT THE FINAL STRETCH IN PERSPECTIVE
The Grimes campaign remains in an extremely strong financial position. With 20 days remaining, the campaign yesterday announced yet another record-breaking fundraising haul – nearly $4.9 million raised in the 3rd Quarter, leaving the campaign with nearly $4.4 million on hand for the sprint down the stretch. That amount is more than any Democrat holds in any competitive 2014 U.S. Senate race that remains in play. [1]
University of Louisville Political Science Professor Dewey Clayton: The race will remain airtight and come down to turnout. Kentuckians of all stripes have been motivated to action this cycle, and will only be further motivated by upcoming events in the final three weeks. As Clayton told WFPL:
Polling still shows the Grimes bottom-line message beats McConnell’s with voters. The most recent polling shows that, by a margin of 57 percent to 30 percent, Kentuckians overwhelmingly think that 30 years of Mitch McConnell is long enough. The enormous 27 percent margin demonstrates the widespread desire to fire Mitch McConnell. The same poll tested McConnell’s singular campaign theme of tired comparisons of Grimes to Obama, finding that voters only believed that argument by 12 percent points, and that it did not even draw a majority positive response (at 49 percent to 37 percent). Inside baseball conversations by DC pundits simply don’t reflect the issues important to Kentucky, dominating local newscasts or consider data about the actual competing messages side-by-side.
Media is overstating the actions and impact of committee news. The Democratic Senate Campaign Committee did not “pull out” or “abandon” the Kentucky Senate race, as some have suggested. As noted in POLITICO’s report:
Independent spending decisions are extremely fluid, and DSCC sources in stories suggest anything but a “write-off.” Independent groups have played consistently in this race in alternating and complementary ways to boost overall ad inventory. As noted, the campaign itself has substantial resources to communicate our message in these final 20 days. Moreover, there is simply no way this race will be ignored by outside groups in the final 10-14 days if current trends showing a margin-of-error race continue, with Grimes gaining vis-à-vis previous results in these very same public polls. [2]
Grassroots enthusiasm for Alison and the desire to retire Mitch McConnell is unprecedented. Another key wildcard not being discussed is something only those on the ground in Kentucky can see, and it’s both palpable and historic. Whether it be shattering small donor records, huge crowds at events in even the reddest areas of the Commonwealth, or the incredible energy being fueled by the excitement of national attention paid to this race, Alison supporters of all stripes understand the stakes at hand and are mobilized like never before – Kentucky has never seen anything like this.
[1.]The Bluegrass poll showing Alison with a 2-point lead – mirroring our internal polling – is a 6-point surge from the previous Bluegrass poll in late August. Just yesterday, a GOP-leaning Gravis poll had Alison gaining 7 points since their last survey on September 13th-16th, with huge pickups amongst the key independent demographic.
[2.] Specifically and quite notably, our campaign has substantially more resources the very races that news reports show the DSCC is allocating money for their ad buys this week.
TO: Interested Parties
FR: Jonathan Hurst, Campaign Manager
RE: Grimes Positioned for Strong Finish in #KYSen
DATE: October 15, 2014
Executive Summary: The 15-month campaign plan we’ve put together and ridden to a statistical tie entering the final 20-day stretch of the election remains in place—and we’re confident Kentucky voters will choose a fresh, independent voice to represent them in Washington over the embodiment of Washington gridlock and dysfunction. Recent process stories and pundit hyperventilating have focused on issues proven to have no impact on the fundamentals of this race – and ignore key factors and data that will determine the actual outcome.
KEY DATA POINTS TO PUT THE FINAL STRETCH IN PERSPECTIVE
The Grimes campaign remains in an extremely strong financial position. With 20 days remaining, the campaign yesterday announced yet another record-breaking fundraising haul – nearly $4.9 million raised in the 3rd Quarter, leaving the campaign with nearly $4.4 million on hand for the sprint down the stretch. That amount is more than any Democrat holds in any competitive 2014 U.S. Senate race that remains in play. [1]
University of Louisville Political Science Professor Dewey Clayton: The race will remain airtight and come down to turnout. Kentuckians of all stripes have been motivated to action this cycle, and will only be further motivated by upcoming events in the final three weeks. As Clayton told WFPL:
“Both candidates will be sort of beating the bushes, and trying to make their case, make their argument. Just basically try to mobilize voters because I do think that clearly the election is going to be close to the wire, and I think clearly is going to depend on who is better able to get out the vote.”Energetic, high profile events like tonight’s rally with Hillary Clinton and our campaign’s grassroots momentum will only intensify this clear advantage as the campaign executes the most robust GOTV operation in Kentucky history.
Polling still shows the Grimes bottom-line message beats McConnell’s with voters. The most recent polling shows that, by a margin of 57 percent to 30 percent, Kentuckians overwhelmingly think that 30 years of Mitch McConnell is long enough. The enormous 27 percent margin demonstrates the widespread desire to fire Mitch McConnell. The same poll tested McConnell’s singular campaign theme of tired comparisons of Grimes to Obama, finding that voters only believed that argument by 12 percent points, and that it did not even draw a majority positive response (at 49 percent to 37 percent). Inside baseball conversations by DC pundits simply don’t reflect the issues important to Kentucky, dominating local newscasts or consider data about the actual competing messages side-by-side.
Media is overstating the actions and impact of committee news. The Democratic Senate Campaign Committee did not “pull out” or “abandon” the Kentucky Senate race, as some have suggested. As noted in POLITICO’s report:
“The DSCC had spent relatively little on TV directly until recently anyway. Notably, the DSCC did not cancel any pre-planned reservations – they just didn’t place new ones”Moreover, the DSCC just yesterday kicked in another $300,000 for GOTV programs here in Kentucky.
Independent spending decisions are extremely fluid, and DSCC sources in stories suggest anything but a “write-off.” Independent groups have played consistently in this race in alternating and complementary ways to boost overall ad inventory. As noted, the campaign itself has substantial resources to communicate our message in these final 20 days. Moreover, there is simply no way this race will be ignored by outside groups in the final 10-14 days if current trends showing a margin-of-error race continue, with Grimes gaining vis-à-vis previous results in these very same public polls. [2]
Grassroots enthusiasm for Alison and the desire to retire Mitch McConnell is unprecedented. Another key wildcard not being discussed is something only those on the ground in Kentucky can see, and it’s both palpable and historic. Whether it be shattering small donor records, huge crowds at events in even the reddest areas of the Commonwealth, or the incredible energy being fueled by the excitement of national attention paid to this race, Alison supporters of all stripes understand the stakes at hand and are mobilized like never before – Kentucky has never seen anything like this.
[1.]The Bluegrass poll showing Alison with a 2-point lead – mirroring our internal polling – is a 6-point surge from the previous Bluegrass poll in late August. Just yesterday, a GOP-leaning Gravis poll had Alison gaining 7 points since their last survey on September 13th-16th, with huge pickups amongst the key independent demographic.
[2.] Specifically and quite notably, our campaign has substantially more resources the very races that news reports show the DSCC is allocating money for their ad buys this week.
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