P2020 « U.S. House Races, 2017-18

Overview: Buoyed by successes in 2017, Democrats are hoping for a wave election as happened in 2010.  Summing up the campaign, one can say that Democrats will be running against and trying to tie candidates to President Donald Trump while Republicans will be running against and trying to tie candidates to House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi.  Both are unpopular.  (There was some talk among Democrats about the need to replace Pelosi, but that petered out following their successes in the 2017 off-year elections).  Republicans' failure to repeal Obamacare and their tax reform effort, which has proved unpopular, are bound to be issues in the campaign.  Thus far more than twice as many Republican Members as Democrats are retiring.
Links:  DCCC [Organization]  |   NRCC [Organization]  |   FEC 
Key Super PACs: 
D - House Majority PAC
R - Congressional Leadership Fund

Special Elections 2017-18

• Pennsylvania 18 (western PA including south Pittsburgh suburbs)... Nominees chosen by party state central committees at nominating conventions in Nov. 2017.  Special election March 13, 2018.
  Rep. Tim Murphy (R), first elected in 2002, resigned effective Oct. 21, 2017 due to scandal over affair.  State Rep. Rick Saccone (R), who had been running for U.S. Senate, faces a Democrat tbd.
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• Utah 3 (SE corner extending up towards Salt Lake City) ...Special election Nov. 7, 2017.
  Rep. Jason Chaffetz (R), first elected in 2008, announced on May 19 that he would resign effective June 30, 2017; he signed to become an analyst with Fox News.  Mayor of Provo John Curtis (R) defeated Kathie Allen (D) and Jim Bennett (UU) by 58.1% to 25.9% and 9.2%; sworn in on Nov. 13, 2017.
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• California 34 (neighborhoods in Central, East and Northeast L.A.) ...Special election June 6, 2017.
  Rep. Xavier Becerra (D), first elected in 1992, resigned effective Jan. 24, 2017; Gov. Jerry Brown announced on Dec. 1, 2016 he would appoint Becerra as Attorney General.  Jimmy Gomez (D) emerged from a crowded primary and defeated Robert Lee Ahn (D); sworn in on July 11, 2017.
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• Georgia 6 (northern suburbs of Atlanta) ...April 18, 2017 primary.  Special election June 20, 2017.
  Rep. Tom Price (R), first elected in 2004, was nominated by President-elect Trump as HHS Secretary and resigned effective Feb. 10, 2017.  Former Sec. of State and Senior VP at Komen Karen Handel (R) defeated former congressional staffer and small businessman Jon Ossoff (D) by 51.9% to 48.1%; sworn in on June 26.  This was the most expensive U.S. House race in history.


• South Carolina 5 (north central including Rock Hill) ...May 16, 2017 GOP runoff.  Special election June 20, 2017.
  Rep. Mick Mulvaney (R), first elected in 2010, nominated by President-elect Trump as OMB Director and resigned effective Feb. 16, 2017.  Commercial real estate developer and state Rep. Ralph Norman (R) defeated Archie Parnell (D), a senior advisor to Goldman Sachs, by 51.1% to 47.9%; sworn in on June 26.


• Montana AL ...Special election May 25, 2017.
  Rep. Ryan Zinke (R), first elected in 2014, was nominated by President-elect Trump as Interior Secretary and resigned effective Mar. 1, 2017.  Entrepreneur and 2016 gubernatorial nominee Greg Gianforte (R) defeated musician Rob Quist (D) by 50.2% to 44.1%; sworn in on June 21.
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• Kansas 4 (south central including Wichita) ...GOP nominating convention Feb. 9.  Special election April 11, 2017. 
  Rep. Mike Pompeo (R), first elected in 2010, was nominated by President-elect Trump as CIA director and resigned effective Jan. 23, 2017.  State Treasurer Ron Estes (R) defeated attorney and veteran James Thompson (D) by 52.2% to 46.0%; sworn in on April 25.
  

There will likely be a couple of more special elections...
Oklahoma 1 (Tulsa metro area).  On Sept. 2, 2017 President Trump nominated Rep. Jim Bridenstine (R), first elected in 2012, to be NASA administrator.  The confirmation process is ongoing; on Nov. 8 the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation approved the nomination in a 14-13 vote, sending it to the full Senate.

Ohio 12 (north and east of Columbus).  Rep. Pat Tiberi (R), first elected in 2000, announced on Oct. 19, 2017 that he will leave Congress before Jan. 31, 2018 to lead the Ohio Business Roundtable.

Running for Other Office  (19)

9 for U.S. Senate (6R, 3D)	R: McSally (AZ), Messer (IN), Rokita (IN), Barletta (PA), Blackburn (TN), Jenkins (WV).  D: Sinema (AZ), Rosen (NV), O'Rourke (TX)
9 for Governor (5R, 4D)	R: Labrador (ID), Pearce (NM), Renacci (OH), Noem (SD), Black (TN) D: Polis (CO), Hanabusa (HI), Walz (MN), Lujan Grisham (NM)
1 for President	D: Delaney (MD)

Nov. 7, 2017 - Rep. Martha McSally (R, AZ-2 ...SE corner of the state including much of Tucson 1, 2) - first elected Nov. 2014.  reported running for U.S. Senate.

Oct. 5, 2017 - Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R, TN-7 ... in the western part of the state between Memphis and Nashville; from KY in the north to MS and AL in the south 1, 2)  - first elected Nov. 2002.  U.S. Senate

Sept. 28, 2017 - Rep. Krysten Sinema (D, AZ-9 ...parts of Maricopa Co. including Tempe and southern Phoenix 1, 2) - first elected Nov. 2012.  U.S. Senate

Sept. 1, 2017 - Rep. Colleen Hanabusa (D, HI-1 ...Honolulu and area 1, 2) - elected in a Nov. 8, 2016 special election to fill out the term of Rep. Mark Takai and sworn in on Nov. 14; she was as well elected to a full term.  She previously served two terms, being elected in Nov. 2010 and 2012.  Governor.

Aug. 29, 2017 - Rep. Lou Barletta (R, PA-11 ...East central Pennsylvania 1, 2) - first elected Nov. 2010.  U.S. Senate

Aug. 8, 2017 - Rep. Todd Rokita (R, IN-4 ...West central Indiana from Indianapolis suburbs to Illinois border 1, 2) - first elected Nov. 2010.  U.S. Senate

Aug. 2, 2017 - Rep. Diane Black (R, TN-6 ...North central TN on the border with KY 1, 2) - first elected Nov. 2010.  Governor

July 28, 2017 - Rep. John Delaney (D, MD-6 ...Western MD 1, 2) - first elected Nov. 2012.  President

July 26, 2017 - Rep. Luke Messer (R, IN-6 ...East central and southern Indiana to Ohio border 1, 2) - first elected Nov. 2012.  U.S. Senate

July 10, 2017 - Rep. Steve Pearce (R, NM-2 ...southern half of NM incl. a quarter of Albuquerque - elected Nov. 2010, previously served three terms, elected in 2002, '04 and '06.  Governor

July 6, 2017 - Rep. Jacky Rosen (D, NV-3 ...South of Las Vegas including Henderson 1, 2) - first elected Nov. 2016.  U.S. Senate

June 11, 2017 - Rep. Jared Polis (D, CO-2 ...North Central; Denver suburbs to Wyoming border 1, 2) - first elected Nov. 2008.  Governor

May 9, 2017 - Rep. Raúl Labrador (R, ID-1 ...western third of the state from Nevada to Canada 1, 2) - first elected Nov. 2010.  Governor

May 8, 2017 - Rep. Evan Jenkins (R, WV-3 ...southern WV incl. Huntington 1, 2) - first elected Nov. 2014.  U.S. Senate

Mar. 29/31, 2017 - Rep. Beto O'Rouke (D, TX-16 ...El Paso, the western tip of TX 1, 2) first elected Nov. 2012.  U.S. Senate

Mar. 27, 2017 - Rep. Tim Walz (D, MN-1 ...Southern MN from SD in the West to WI in the East 1, 2) - first elected Nov. 2006.  Governor

Mar. 20, 2017 - Rep. Jim Renacci (R, OH-16 ...Akron area and western suburbs of Cleveland 1, 2) - first elected Nov. 2010.  Governor

Dec. 13, 2016 - Rep. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D, NM-1 ...central NM incl. much of Albuquerque 1, 2) - first elected Nov. 2010.  Governor

Nov. 14, 2016 - Rep. Kristi Noem (R, SD-AL ...1, 2) - first elected Nov. 2010.  Governor

Not Seeking Re-election–Retirements

based on past cycles, these announcements will likely continue into April 2018
Nov. 13, 2017 - Rep. Gene Green (D, TX-29 ...curved district in eastern Houston 1, 2) - first elected Nov. 1992.

Nov. 9, 2017 - Rep. Bob Goodlatte (R, VA-6 ...north central bordering WV 1, 2) - first elected Nov. 1992.

Nov. 7, 2017 - Rep. Frank LoBiondo (R, NJ-2 ...southern part of NJ 1, 2) - first elected Nov. 1994.

Nov. 7, 2017 - Rep. Ted Poe (R, TX-2 ...curved district in western and northern Houston 1, 2) - first elected Nov. 2004.

Nov. 2, 2017 - Rep. Lamar Smith (R, TX-21 ...parts of San Antonio and Austin and an area to the west 1, 2) - first elected Nov. 1986.

Oct. 31, 2017 - Rep. Jeb Hensarling (R, TX-5 ... a bit of Dallas Co. and counties to the south and east 1, 2) - first elected Nov. 2002.

[Oct. 19, 2017 - Rep. Pat Tiberi (R, OH-12) see above]

Oct. 6, 2017 - Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D, NH-1 ...Southeast NH incl. Greater Manchester and the Seacoast 1, 2) - elected in 2006 and 2008, defeated by Frank Guinta in 2010, ousted Guinta in 2012, defeated by him in 2014, and won the seat back in 2016.

Sept. 11, 2017 - Rep. Dave Trott (R, MI-11 ...Northwest of Detroit 1, 2) - first elected Nov. 2014.

Sept. 7, 2017 - Rep. Charlie Dent (R, PA-15 ...runs from East of Harrisburg to Allentown area 1, 2) - first elected Nov. 2004.

Sept. 6, 2017 - Rep. Dave Reichert (R, WA-8 ...includes eastern King and Pierce Cos. 1, 2) - first elected Nov. 2004.

Aug. 9, 2017 - Rep. Niki Tsongas (D, MA-3 ...Northeastern and central MA 1, 2) - first elected Oct. 16, 2007 special election.

July 31, 2017 - Rep. John J. (Jimmy) Duncan (R, TN-2 ... East Tennessee district centered on Knoxville 1, 2) - first elected Nov. 8, 1988 special election.

April 3, 2017 - Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R, FL-27 ...Miami area including much of the city of Miami 1, 2) - first elected Aug. 29, 1989 special election.

Jan. 25, 2017 - Rep. Lynn Jenkins (R, KS-2 ...Eastern part of the state incl. Topeka and Lawrence; not Kansas City Metro 1, 2) - first elected Nov. 2008.

Jan. 6, 2017 - Rep. Sam Johnson (R, TX-3 ...a compact district north and northeast of Dallas, encompasses much of Collin Co. 1, 2) - first elected May 8, 1991 special election.

Not Returning (33)*

By State

Arizona R-Martha McSally (AZ-2) D-Kyrsten Sinema (AZ-9) Colorado D-Jared Polis (CO-2) Florida R-Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (FL-27) Hawaii D-Colleen Hanabusa (HI-1) Idaho R-Raúl Labrador (ID-1) Indiana R-Todd Rokita (IN-4) R-Luke Messer (IN-6) Kansas R-Lynn Jenkins (KS-2) Maryland D-John Delaney (MD-6)

Massachusetts D-Niki Tsongas (MA-3) Michigan R-Dave Trott (MI-11) Minnesota D-Tim Walz (MN-1) Nevada D-Jacky Rosen (NV-3) New Hampshire D-Carol Shea-Porter (NH-1) New Jersey R-Frank LoBiondo (NJ-2) New Mexico D-Michelle Lujan Grisham (NM-1) R-Steve Pearce (NM-2) Ohio R-Jim Renacci (OH-16)

Pennsylvania R-Lou Barletta (PA-11) R-Charlie Dent (PA-15) South Dakota R-Kristi Noem (SD-AL) Tennessee R-Jimmy Duncan (TN-2) R-Diane Black (TN-6) R-Marsha Blackburn (TN-7) Texas R-Ted Poe (TX-2) R-Sam Johnson (TX-3) R-Jeb Hensarling (TX-5) D-Beto O'Rourke (TX-16) R-Lamar Smith (TX-21) D-Gene Green (TX-29) Virginia R-Bob Goodlatte (VA-6) Washington R-Dave Reichert (WA-8) West Virginia R-Evan Jenkins (WV-3)

By Year Elected

1990s and earlier 1986 R-Lamar Smith (TX-21) 1988 (Nov. 8) R-Jimmy Duncan (TN-2) 1989 (Aug. 29) R-Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (FL-27) 1991 (May 8) R-Sam Johnson (TX-3) 1992 D-Gene Green (TX-29) R-Bob Goodlatte (VA-6) 1994 R-Frank LoBiondo (NJ-2)

2000s 2002 R-Marsha Blackburn (TN-7) R-Jeb Hensarling (TX-5) 2004 R-Charlie Dent (PA-15) R-Ted Poe (TX-2) R-Dave Reichert (WA-8) 2006 D-Tim Walz (MN-1) 2007 (Oct. 16) D-Niki Tsongas (MA-3) 2008 D-Jared Polis (CO-2) R-Lynn Jenkins (KS-2)

2010s 2010 R-Raúl Labrador (ID-1) R-Todd Rokita (IN-4) R-Steve Pearce (NM-2)* R-Jim Renacci (OH-16) R-Lou Barletta (PA-11) R-Kristi Noem (SD-AL) R-Diane Black (TN-6) 2012 D-Kyrsten Sinema (AZ-9) R-Luke Messer (IN-6) D-John Delaney (MD-6) D-Michelle Lujan Grisham (NM-1) D-Beto O'Rourke (TX-16) 2014 R-Martha McSally (AZ-2) R-Dave Trott (MI-11) R-Evan Jenkins (WV-3) 2016 D-Colleen Hanabusa (HI-1)* D-Jacky Rosen (NV-3) D-Carol Shea-Porter (NH-1)*

Three retiring Members served previous stints in Congress:
- C.Hanabusa (D-HI) was elected in a Nov. 8, 2016 special election to fill out the term of Rep. Mark Takai and sworn in on Nov. 14; she was as well elected to a full term.  She previously served two terms, being elected in Nov. 2010 and 2012.

- C.Shea-Porter (D-NH) was elected in 2006 and 2008, defeated by Guinta in 2010, ousted Guinta in 2012, and defeated by him in 2014.

- S.Pearce (R-NM) previously served three terms, being elected in 2002, 2004 and 2006.

Primary Dates

no primaries in April or July.  tbd: MA            
NCSL Primary Dates

Cycle	Before Election Day	Retirements		Running for Sen.	Running for Gov.	Run Tot.	Def. in Primary	Def. in General	Freshman Class	After Election Day	Net Gain
2006	229R, 201D, 1I, 4v			7 (4D, 2R, 1I) 3 (2D, 0R, 1I)	9 (2D, 7R)  3 (1D, 2R)	16 (6D, 9R, 1I)   6 (3D, 2R, 1I)	2 (1D, 1R)	22 (0D, 22R)	55 (42D, 13R)	234D, 201R	31D
2008	235D, 199R, 1v			5 (3D, 2R)  2 (2D, 0R)	1 (0D, 1R) 0 (0D, 0R)	6 (3D, 3R)   2 (2D, 0R)	4 (1D, 3R)	19 (5D, 14R)	54 (32D, 22R)	257D, 178R	21D
2010	255D, 178R, 2v			9 (4D, 5R) 3 (0D, 3R)	9 (3D, 6R) 3 (1D, 2R)	19 (7D, 12R)   7 (1D, 6R)	4 (2D, 2R)	54 (52D, 2R)	96 (8D, 88R)	242R, 193D	63R
2012	240R, 190D, 5v			11 (6D, 5R)  6 (5D, 1R)	2 (1D, 1R) 2 (1D, 1R)	13 (7D, 6R)   8 (6D, 2R)	13 (7D, 6R)	27 (10D,17R)	84 (49D, 35R)	233R, 200D, 2v	6D
2014	233R, 199D, 3v			13 (3D, 10R)  7 (1D, 6R)	2 (2D, 0R) 0 (0D, 0R)	17 (6D, 10R)   7 (1D, 6R)	5 (1D, 4R)	14 (11D, 3R)	61 (17D, 44R)	247R, 188D	9R
2016	246R, 186D, 3v			12 (7D, 5R)  3 (2D, 1R)	1 (1D, 0R) 1 (1D, 0R)	14 (9D, 5R)   5 (4D, 1R	5 (2D, 3R)	7 (1D, 6R)	55 (27D, 28R)	241R, 194D	5D

Notes:
Looking back at the pages I did for previous cycles, I see that I have a definitional problem when it comes to retirements.  This category could encompass a number of different possibilities.  The narrowest definition is those who are leaving Congress at the end of their term and not seeking another elective office (straight retirements).  Next one can add those who are leaving and running for other offices.  Then, broadening the defiinition, there are those who leave before finishing their term where a special election is held and the seat filled.  Finally, there are those who are those who are defeated in primaries or die in office (involuntary retirements).  Another indicator to look at is open seats.

In the chart above, "Running for..." columns have two rows; the top row is candidates and lower row is successful candidates.  These numbers do not include Members who announce for another office but later decide to end those campaigns and seek to stay in the House.

"Run total" occasionally includes other offices besides U.S. Senate and Governor.  In 2010 Adam Putnam (R-FL) ran for Commissioner of Agriculture and won, in 2014 Gloria Negrete McLeod (D-CA) ran for County Supervisor and lost, and in 2016 Janice Hahn (D-CA) ran for County Supervisor and won.

Looking at these six cycles, one sees 57 Members ran for Senate and 24 were successful, while 24 Members ran for Governor and 9 were successful.

Copyright © 2017 
Eric M. Appleman/Democracy in Action. 
All rights reserved.