The next government will almost certainly be a National- or Labour- led coalition.  The Mixed Member Proportional system, adopted in 1993 and first used in 1996 (>), favors the formation of coalition governments; indeed a majority government has happened only once under MMP, the Labour government following the 2020 election.  For 2026, neither Prime Minister Christopher Luxon (+) nor Leader of the Opposition Chris Hipkins is particularly popular, and alternative parties are hoping they will benefit from  the dissatisfaction.  In addition to NZ First, ACT and the Greens, The Opportunity Party, which obtained 2.2% of the vote in 2023, hopes to cross the 5% threshold needed to gain representation in Parliament and possibly play the role of kingmaker.  Opportunity has over 40 candidates running on a platform "to fix politics, build the next economy and restore nature," and could emulate the recent successes of the Teals in Australia.  There are also many smaller parties, ranging from the Animal Justice Party to the Women's Rights Party, but these typically have had negligible impact on election outcomes.

Background
Under MMP voters have two votes: a party vote and an electorate vote (>).  Nominally there are 120 seats in the New Zealand Parliament, of which 71 are represented by electorate MPs and 49 are represented by list MPs; however, there can be several additional seats on top of the 120 when a party wins a disproportionate number of electorate seats.  Party votes are allocated according to the proportion of the vote a political party wins, provided it is above 5% or they win an electorate (1, 2); these are the list MPs.  The effect of this system is to give alternative parties a larger voice, which, as noted above leads to coalition governments.  Electorate votes select the local Member of Parliament; for 2026, there are 16 general electorates on the South Island, 48 general electorates on the North Island, and 7 Māori electorates.  (Two of the Māori electorates are represented by Independents).