updated 4 May 2025


 
OVERVIEW: A RESOUNDING WIN FOR LABOR
As 2025 dawned and a federal election approached, the prospects of the Australian Labor Party, led by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, appeared rather bleak.  Australians were battered by increases in the cost of living (>) and "doing it tough."  In elections around the world in 2024, inflation weighed heavily against incumbents (1, 2).  A Coalition win or minority government seemed a distinct possibility. 

In the 3 May election, Australians voted for members of the 48th Parliament, selecting all 150 Members of the House and 40 of 76 Senators.  The Australian Electoral Commission reported 18,098,797 people were enrolled for the election or 98.2% of those eligible. 

The Labor government, headed by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese ("Albo"), 62, came into power in May 2022 (>) and ran on the theme of "Building Australia's Future."  Peter Dutton, age 54, a former police officer, who became Leader of the Opposition in May 2022 led the Liberal/National coalition, running on the banner of "Let's Get Australia Back on Track."  Both are veteran politicians; Albanese was first elected to Parliament representing the NSW seat of Grayndler in 1996; Dutton was first elected to Parliament representing the QLD seat of Dickson in 2001.

However, many voters were dissatisfied with the two major parties.  In the 2022 federal election, Australia witnessed a "teal revolution," as voters who had traditionally voted Liberal instead supported independents (>).  Climate 200, a group backed by Simon Holmes à Court, supported 35 candidates who favor action on climate change and integrity in government.  Greens had hopes of adding to their numbers. 

Heading into the campaign, the balance in the House was tight: Labor held 77 seats, the Liberal/National Coalition 53, Independents 13, Greens 4, Centre Alliance Party 1, Katter's Australian Party 1 and there were 2 vacancies, while the balance in the Senate was: Coalition 30, Government 25, Minor Parties 17 (Greens 11, Paula Hanson's One Nation 2, four others 1 each).  Independents and candidates of other parties were in a strong position to determine the balance of power, and the prospect of a minority government appeared quite possible. 

The AEC reported that 1,126 candidates ran for the 150 House seats and 330 candidates ran for the 40 Senate seats.  Ben Raue, who runs the excellent website The Tally Room, provided further details.  For the House there are an average of 7.51 candidates per electorate.  In addition to the Coalition, Labor, and Green candidates, One Nation is running 147 candidates, Trumpet of Patriots 100 candidates, Libertarians 46, Legalise Cannabis 42, AJP 18, and there are 132 independents.  There are other small parties running handfuls of candidates; Raue reported 25 parties running candidates for House and 28 for Senate in 2025 (down from 34 running candidates for House and 37 for Senate in 2022).  Raue also reported 35.9% of candidates running for House were women.

Albanese and Dutton debated four times during the course of the campaign (+).  Cost of living concerns dominated, as did discussion of the housing crisis, and energy policy.  Labor's website stated, "Our number one priority is helping Australians with the cost of living" (>), while the Liberals charged that under Labor, "Australians are suffering from the worst cost of living crisis in a generation."  Liberals emphasized "reducing wasteful and unnecessary spending and keeping the budget in balance." 

The outcome of the 28 April Canadian election presaged the impact of the Trump effect in Australia.  The Liberal/National Coalition, led by Dutton, had taken heart from Trump's win in the Nov. 2024 American election.  However, Trump's first months governing were marked by turmoil and chaos, from his shameful treatment of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in the Oval Office to the market instability brought about by tariffs and "Liberation Day."  Dutton could not escape the Trump shadow.  His proposal to cut 41,000 public service jobs echoed Elon Musk's DOGE in the United States, his reversal in his position on work from home drew lots of negative coverage, and his advocacy of a costly scheme to build seven nuclear power plants around the country provided a big target for Labor.

Early voting started on 22 April.  Although Albanese appeared to have an edge, Australians' cost of living concerns had not disappeared, and the size of the independent vote remained a open question.  (For example, the 3 May Australian Financial Review front page headline read, "Independents' Day? A late surge away from the majors could deliver a minority government." The Sunday Telegraph proclaimed "Minor Problem: Threat Firms of Minority Government").  The surprisingly resounding win for Labor and disastrous result for the Liberals is best explained as a rejection of the chaotic Trumpian approach to governing.  Australians opted for stability.  Albanese became the first Prime Minister returned for a second term since John Howard in 2004, while Dutton became the first Opposition leader to lose his seat in a federal election.   

Key Dates
25 March:  Prime Minister Anthony Albanese announces 3 May 2025 as the election date. 

7 April: Enrolment closes.

8 April: First leaders' debate — Sky News/The Daily Telegraph "People's Forum" [Western Sydney].

10 April: Close of nominations.

13 April: Election campaign launches: Dutton in Western Sydney and Albanese in Perth.

16 April: Second leaders' debate — ABC [Parramatta].

22 April: Start of early voting.

22 April: Third leaders' debate — Channel Nine "The Great Debate– Election 2025: Australia Decides" [Sydney].

29 April: Final leaders' debate —  7NEWS Studios [Sydney].


3 May: Election Day.

 



   
"In this time of global uncertainty, Australians have chosen optimism and determination. Australians have chosen to face global challenges the Australian way, looking after each other while building for the future. And to serve these values, meet these challenges, seize these opportunities and build that better and stronger future, Australians have chosen a majority Labor government..."    – PM Anthony Albanese

Q U I C K L I N K S
 

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