• P2024 Home «
  • Battle for the 119th Congress and the States

  Battle for the 119th Congress and the States                                                    
 Details: U.S. Senate  |  U.S. House  |  Governors 

                                                     this page updated Sept. 27, 2024 


America Faces Big Challenges — Is Our System Equipped to Address Them?

Presidential campaigns can effect down-ballot races and vice-versa.  Democrats, who had been concerned that President Biden's low popularity could drag down some of their candidates, are feeling better with Vice President Harris atop the ticket, and more concretely their party committees are achieving record fundraising (1, 2).  Meanwhile, former President Trump's undisciplined performances could hurt prospects of Republican candidates who have aligned closely with him.  With the House and Senate both closely divided, outcome of the battle for control of the House and Senate in the 119th Congress will profoundly impact the next president's ability to enact his or her agenda.  Also at stake around the country are numerous state and local offices as well as ballot measures on a host of subjects.

America faces challenges aplenty.  After peaking at 9.1-percent in June 2022, inflation has fallen to the 3-percent range as Election Day approaches, but prices of many food items remain high, health care costs continue to rise, and housing affordability and homelessness are major issues in communities around the country.  After the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in the June 24, 2022 Dobbs decision, abortion is a major issue in many races, and abortion rights measures will be on the ballot in about 10 states.  The national debt stands at $35.3 trillion.  Led by former President Trump, Republicans have focused much attention on illegal immigration and crime.  Conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine continue to drag on, bad actors including China, Russia, Iran and North Korea spread instability, and threats to the environment abound. 

It is proving very difficult for our institutions and leaders to effectively address many of these issues.  Misinformation and divisive rhetoric contribute to a polarized political climate and undermine trust, challenging our democracy.  Our at times sclerotic political system might benefit some significant reforms to open up the process and adapt to changing times and technologies.
 
U.S. Senate
Democrats, working with Independents have a narrow working majority; the current balance is 49 Republicans, 47 Democrats, and four Independents.  Republicans have a good chance of recapturing the majority—Democrats are defending 19  seats, independents 4 seats and Republicans 11 seats.

U.S. House
Republicans have a narrow 220 to 2011 majority with four vacancies.  Forty-seven members (49 when one adds in the members from Puerto Rico and Northern Marianas) are retiring or have sought other offices, and four were defeated in primaries (2R-Carl (AL) and Good (VA) and 2D-Bowman (NY) and Bush (MO)).

Governors
Just 11 seats are up (plus Puerto Rico and American Samoa).  Eight of the 11 are open due to term limits or retirements.

State Legislatures
According to the National Conference of State Legislatures, "There are 7,386 total legislative seats throughout the 99 state legislative chambers" (Nebraska is unicameral, and this figure does not include DC and the territories) [1].  NCSL reports, "Voters in 44 states will choose 5,808 state legislators on Nov. 5, 2024 [2]."  As of Aug. 2024, Republicans controlled both chambers of the state legislature in 29 states, Democrats controlled both chambers in 19 states, control of the legislature was divided in one state (MN).  Of 1,974 Senators, there were 1,080R, 831D, 52O (includes 49 from NE) and 10v; of 5,413 House members there were 2,943R, 2,5426D, 24O and 20v. 

Ballot Measures
There will also be about 150 state ballot measures covering a broad range of topics.

ADVERTISEMENT