Donald J. Trump for President 2024 Campaign Memos

July-November 2024
Nov. 4, 2024 - The Democrat Turnout Problem Heading Into Election Day
Oct. 31, 2024 - President Trump is on the Verge
Oct. 28, 2024 - Harris' Sunday mobilization effort falls way short in North Carolina & Georgia
Oct. 13, 2024 - Is the Kamala Campaign Cracking?
Oct. 10, 2024 - President Trump Holds Edge in All Battleground States
Sept. 3, 2024 - President Trump has the Momentum in this Race
Aug. 24, 2024 - Harris' Likely Post-DNC Bounce
Aug. 23, 2024 - What RFK Jr.'s Exit and Endorsement Means
July 23, 2024 - The Harris Honeymoon
July 22, 2024 - State of Play Day 1

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Donald J. Trump for President 2024, Inc.
November 4, 2024 TO:         Trump Campaign Senior Leadership Team

FROM:   Tim Saler, Grassroots Targeting – Chief Data Consultant, DJTFP / RNC

SUBJ:     The Democrat Turnout Problem Heading Into Election Day

DATE:     November 4, 2024

With Early Voting closed and Election Day on the horizon, Democrats are facing a massive turnout deficit. In every single battleground state, we see President Trump and Republicans outperforming elections past in absentee ballots and early votes cast. As we dive deeper into the data, Democrats are facing a precipitous decline in urban turnout according to their own “data experts” and we are tracking an uptick in rural turnout.

Obama’s former campaign manager, Jim Messina, said on MSNBC that “the early vote numbers are a little scary.” What Mr. Messina is downplaying, is they are a lot scarier for Democrats. According to NBC News, President Donald J. Trump has a 16-point lead (56-40) among voters who plan to cast their ballot on Election Day. Obama’s chief campaign strategist and CNN political commentator, David Axelrod, told CNN that there are no guarantees that voters will turn out on Election Day for Vice President Harris.

Democrats are spinning themselves and reporters by claiming that their voters will turn out on Election Day when polls show otherwise and, most importantly, that’s asking Democrat voters to do something they have absolutely no history of doing. If Democrats, who historically vote ahead of Election Day, haven’t been motivated to show up for Kamala yet, why do we expect them to show up tomorrow?

President Donald J. Trump is going into Election Day stronger than he has in any previous election and if patriots across the country keep the momentum and turn out as expected on Election Day, we will be swearing in President Trump in January.

But you don’t need to take our word for it. According to Democrat data expert Tom Bonier of TargetSmart:

Arizona:
Urban turnout is down -385,285 votes compared to this point in 2020
Female turnout is down -170,011 votes compared to this point in 2020
Rural turnout is UP +14,124 votes compared to this point in 2020

Georgia:
Urban turnout is down -153,846 votes compared to this point in 2020
Female turnout is down -46,732 votes compared to this point in 2020
Rural turnout is UP +171,837 votes compared to this point in 2020

Michigan:
Urban turnout is down -321.,523 votes compared to this point in 2020
Female turnout is down -204,856 votes compared to this point in 2020
Rural turnout is UP +55,951 votes compared to this point in 2020

North Carolina:
Urban turnout is down -175,470 votes compared to this point in 2020
Female turnout is down -154,459 votes compared to this point in 2020
Rural turnout is UP +26,911 votes compared to this point in 2020

Nevada:
Urban turnout is down -191,199 votes compared to this point in 2020
Female turnout is down -126,112 votes compared to this point in 2020

Pennsylvania:
Urban turnout is down -381,519 votes compared to this point in 202
Female turnout is down -450,802 votes compared to this point in 2020

Wisconsin:
Urban turnout is down -100,733 votes compared to this point in 2020
Female turnout is down -238,452 votes compared to this point in 2020

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Donald J. Trump for President 2024, Inc.
October 31, 2024

TO:           TEAM TRUMP

FROM:     TONY FABRIZIO

RE:           PRESIDENT TRUMP IS ON THE VERGE

DATE:      OCTOBER 31, 2024
 
I know there is a great deal of polling and data “noise” out there as the media continues their unabashed and unprecedented shilling for Kamala Harris. So, as we head into the final weekend before Election Day, I wanted to give you an update on where we stand based on public polling averages with a look back at where we were 5 days out from Election Day in 2020.
 
The following table shows the Real Clear Politics polling averages 5 days out in 2020 vs today nationally and in each Battleground State.
As the table clearly illustrates, President Trump’s position nationally and in every single Battleground State is SIGNIFICANTLY better today than it was 4 years ago. In fact, President Trump holds the lead in 5 of the 7 Battleground States that account for over 270 Electoral Votes.
 
I point this out NOT to stoke overconfidence or complacency, but to illustrate just how close this election is and that victory is within our reach. But the fact remains that we still have a great deal of work to do. While the analysis of early and absentee vote returns in each state are promising, we know that the bulk of President Trump voters will vote on Election Day. So, our continued efforts to turnout our voters are crucial.
 
As Harris and her campaign struggle to find a closing argument that addresses voters’ worries about inflation, their jobs, taxes, illegal immigration, crime and an unstable world, our closing argument of “Kamala broke it, President Trump will fix it” puts Harris’ failures on each of those issues in stark contrast to President Trump’s successes – and voters are responding positively.
 
Over the next 5 days there will be a continual barrage of public polling and analysis – some positive and some negative. It is crucial we do not get distracted by the media noise and remain focused on our closing message, persuading the few remaining undecided voters and turning out our base.

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Donald J. Trump for President 2024, Inc.
October 28, 2024

TO:       Trump Campaign Senior Leadership Team
 
FROM:  Tim Saler, Grassroots Targeting – Chief Data Consultant, DJTFP / RNC
 
SUBJ:   Harris’ Sunday mobilization effort falls way short in North Carolina & Georgia
 
DATE:   October 28, 2024
 
The biggest and most important turnout day for the Harris campaign during North Carolina and Georgia early voting has come and gone with minimal impact on the electorate.
 
In North Carolina, Republicans maintain a roughly 1-point lead in combined mail and early votes cast after the Harris campaign’s Sunday voter mobilization effort, often referred to by Democrats as their “Souls to the Polls” program. This get-out-the-vote push is historically the single largest mobilization day for Democrats during the entire early voting period.
 
Republicans took the lead last week for the first time in the history of North Carolina early voting and continue to hold that lead as of today. At this point in 2020, Democrats led the mail and early vote by about ten points. In 2022, they led by about eight points.
 
In Georgia, turnout for this past Sunday’s voting was 15 percent lower than the first Sunday of early voting, an ominous sign for Harris’ ground game efforts. Furthermore, public polling indicates Harris continues to struggle with African-American voters while President Trump is set to shatter decades-old records for his share of their support. 
 
After Sunday’s voting, African-American voters in Georgia presently make up just 26 percent of the mail and early votes cast in Georgia. At this point in 2020, they made up 29 percent of the vote, and at this point in 2022 they made up 30 percent.

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Donald J. Trump for President 2024, Inc.
October 13, 2024

TO:          Interested Parties

FROM:    Susie Wiles, Chris LaCivita, Tony Fabrizio
                Donald J. Trump for President 2024

DATE:     October 13, 2024

RE:          Is the Kamala Campaign Cracking?

No race is ever over until the last vote is counted, but all of the handwringing among smart Democrat operatives and politically astute media appears quite warranted when you look at where the race was immediately after Labor Day and where it is now.

We predicted the Harris Honeymoon back in July, and did she get a free ride from her media allies. In fact, according to our internal data, virtually ALL the gains made by Harris in the Battleground States came during the month of July, immediately following the coup against Biden and the coronation of Harris—before she or her SuperPAC allies could embark on their no-holds-barred spending spree.

As the table below from our internal Battleground State data shows, Harris' image improved by a net of 15 points, and her ballot position a net of 6 points by the end of July. This is largely due to her earned media joy ride from her allies in the MSM.

According to our internal data, from the end of July through Labor Day, Harris largely treaded water. She made no real gains in her image or her ballot standing against President Trump.

But as most observers know, the campaign season begins in earnest after Labor Day. When you compare the state of the race on the Day after Labor Day to now, what you see will be eye-opening and likely the reason many smart operatives on the other side are wringing their hands over the current state of the race.

State of the Race – September 3, 2024:

• The RCP national polling average was Harris +1.8 – on the same Day in 2020, Biden was +7.2 – Trump running 5.4 points better than 2020
• Also, according to the RCP Battleground State polling averages, Harris was leading with 270 electoral votes to Trump's 262, with 6 EVs tied (No Lean or Toss-up States).

Since Labor Day, the Harris campaign has spent $241,407,417 on trackable media spend compared to only $104,774,939 paid by the Trump campaign – nearly a 2.5 to 1 spending advantage. And yet,

State of the Race – October 11, 2024:

• The RCP national polling average is still Harris +1.8 – on the same Day in 2020, Biden was +10.3 – Trump now running 8.5 points better than 2020
• Also, according to the RCP Battleground State polling averages, in a dramatic turn, Trump is now leading in 296 electoral votes to Harris's 242 EVs (with no Lean or Toss Up states included).

What happened to all of the supposed Harris "momentum?" Frankly, it never really existed beyond the confines of July. According to our internal Battleground State data, the table below illustrates that Harris actually slipped marginally post-Labor Day until now in her image and ballot position.

Given the vast amount of money her campaign has spent and the willingness of the MSM to give her a pass at every turn, how is it possible that she's gone backward in our internal and public polling?

Because she can't convince the voters that she is "the change agent" in the race, that she will be better on the economy, inflation, immigration, crime, or improving people's financial situation, the bottom line is that voters say President Trump will do a better job.

Voters in the Battleground States give President Trump clear advantages on the issues that matter to them most. But that is only part of the story. Harris and her campaign have embarked on an effort to try to sell a version of Harris that never existed:

•  She tried to flip her position on Fracking
• She tried to flip her position on the industry-killing EV mandate
• She tried to sell that she really is tough on the border and illegal immigrants
• She tried to flip her positions on cashless bail and early release for violent criminals

Frankly, she's tried to re-invent herself at every level. And despite once being dubbed the "worst Vice President in the modern era" by many in the media, they gave her a free pass (much like Harris did with hardened criminals on her watch) as she tried to pull a fast one on the voters. However, as has been reported by a few courageous members of the media, voters in focus group after focus group aren't buying it and are uncertain about who Kamala really is.

Then to put the proverbial cherry on top of the sundae, she finally says the first really honest thing in the campaign. When asked, "What would you do differently than Biden?" She said NOTHING. That's right…after months of trying to run away from Biden and his dismal record, she took ownership of it lock, stock and barrel.

While the Harris campaign is busy trying to clean up her monumental gaffe and trying to square it with the version of Kamala they are trying to sell, our campaign will remain laser-focused on drawing the contrast between President Trump's successes as President, Kamala's dismal record and her failures and how her plans will result in higher taxes, higher prices, more illegal immigration, more crime, and potentially America sucked into war.

So, when you examine the shifts in state-level public polling averages, we see evidence that our strategy is working. And when you take a deeper dive into the data and compare the 2020 Exit Polls to our current internal Battleground State data, you see why Kamala is having such a hard time gaining ground:

• President Trump is currently running 13 points ahead of where he finished in 2020 among Independents (According to 2020 Exits in the Battleground States, we lost them by 8, now he is leading by 5).
• President Trump is currently running 20 points ahead of where he finished in 2020 among Blacks (According to 2020 Exits in the Battleground States, we lost them by 81, and now he is trailing by 61).
• President Trump is currently running 32 points ahead of where he finished in 2020 among Hispanics (According to 2020 Exits in the Battleground States, we lost them by 25, and now he is leading by 7).
• President Trump is currently running 11 points ahead of where he finished in 2020 among Voters 18-44 years old (According to 2020 Exits in the Battleground States, we lost them by 15, and now he is trailing by 4).

President Donald Trump and our campaign never take anything for granted. We know what is arrayed against us between the MSM and Harris' cash machine. 

We plan to fight for every last vote. And we wonder if all of the "drape measuring" among Democrats and some in the MSM is perhaps a bit premature. And given the position the Harris team finds itself in, a valid question to ask may well be, "Is the Kamala Campaign Cracking?"

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Donald J. Trump for President 2024, Inc.
September 3, 2024

Trump Campaign Memo: President Trump has the Momentum in this Race

 
TO:                Interested Parties
 
FROM:          Chris LaCivita and Susie Wiles
                      Donald J. Trump for President 2024
 
DATE:            September 3, 2024
 
RE:                 President Trump has the Momentum in this Race.
 
Three weeks ago, the Democrat’s newly crowned nominee — Kamala Harris — was leading in Nate Silver’s Electoral College modeling. The forecast has since inversed in President Trump’s favor.
 
The state of the race is clear: with just nine weeks until the most consequential election in American history, the Trump-Vance Campaign has the momentum.
 
Do the Democrats and voters realize this? Or does the mainstream media, in its attempt to manage public opinion and continue the “Harris Honeymoon,” report a version of reality that is at odds with the facts?
 
Consider this: Kamala Harris has been the Democrat nominee for 44 days and still has not done a solo interview or press conference.
 
Kamala Harris has built-in defenders on national TV who routinely defend her with glowing headlines, made-for-TV segments, and little scrutiny. Nearly 90% of the Dominant Media's coverage of President Trump has been negative. It’s not just a statistic; it is reality.
 
Most recently, the media is running cover for Kamala as she shamefully attacks Gold Star Families who invited President Trump to a wreath-laying in honor of their children. You would think the Administration would spend as much time holding themselves accountable for the death of 13 heroes than launch manufactured attacks. Let’s not forget Kamala Harris was “the last person in the room” at the time of the botched withdrawal.
 
Despite the bias, if the election were held today, Donald Trump would be reelected. President Trump will continue to outline his winning agenda this week at The Economic Club of New York and the Fraternal Order of Police Conference in North Carolina.
 
Kamala, on the other hand, has stalled and received no boost from the Democratic Convention. This headline from ABC’s poll says it all: “Harris doesn't get convention bounce.”
 
Despite her efforts to “reintroduce herself,” it is abundantly clear after her softball interview with Dana Bash that Kamala is the same Radical Left lunatic she has always been. She still believes in mass amnesty, ending cash bail, banning fracking, abolishing private health insurance, and banning gas-powered vehicles. Take it from her when she says, “My values haven’t changed.”
 
Nothing says charting “a new way forward” like campaigning with Joe Biden on Labor Day to remind voters how much more everything costs under Bidenomics.
 
Kamala’s campaign recognizes the Trump Campaign’s attacks on her record are resonating. They are now reacting by running massive quantities of TV ads to fraudulently rebrand Kamala as tough on crime and immigration.
 
Several media-sponsored polls show that compared to 2020 exit polls, President Trump is outperforming with Blacks, Hispanics and even younger voters (18-34) so far in 2024. Now, the Harris campaign is spending millions of dollars on targeted TV and radio advertisements to stem the loss of black support in battleground states.
 
Everything that Kamala and her campaign do is marred by error. When Kamala Harris ventured out to unveil a “new” policy for the first time, it was President Trump’s previously announced “No Tax on Tips” policy.
 
In what was billed as a policy address, Kamala endorsed a failed policy of the 1970s: price controls on almost every facet of the American economy.
 
Then, Kamala’s campaign announced the most significant policy pronouncement that American voters have yet to hear and deserves more attention: a $5 trillion tax increase over a decade.
 
Kamala Harris cannot escape her failed record, so the Harris-Biden Administration is now rewriting it.
 
The “positive” job numbers from the spring were fabricated. Biden even admitted that most of the jobs they claim to have “created” during their Administration were returning TRUMP JOBS.
 
The increases in retail spending? Another lie and another revision.
 
And the Harris-Biden Administration quietly reported nearly 300,000 children who came unaccompanied across the southern border are missing.
 
Unlike Kamala and Walz, President Trump and Senator Vance will directly engage the voters, take tough questions from the traditional press, and reach different audiences through new forms of independent media.
 
President Trump and Senator Vance will build a unity party, backed by the support of Brian Kemp, and endorsements from Tulsi Gabbard and Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. The American Dynasty Democrat political family is siding with a member of the Grand Old Party.
 
President Trump and his growing team of American patriots remain focused and will spend the next nine weeks traveling the country — bringing hope and the promise of endless opportunity to an America in decline.
 
We hope it’s only a matter of time before the public — through the Trump Campaign, millions of citizen journalists, and alternate media — breaks through and hears the real Kamala Harris record.
 
The American people deserve no less.

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Donald J. Trump for President 2024, Inc.
August 24, 2024

CONFIDENTIAL MEMORANDUM 

TO: TEAM TRUMP
FROM: TONY FABRIZIO & TRAVIS TUNIS
RE: HARRIS’ LIKELY POST-DNC BOUNCE
DATE: AUGUST 22, 2024

When Kamala Harris entered the race, we predicted that she would get a bump in the polls, aka the “Harris Honeymoon”. We said, “The honeymoon will be a manifestation of the wall-to-wall coverage Harris receives from the MSM. The coverage will be largely positive and will certainly energize Democrats and some other parts of their coalition at least in the short term.”

We’ve certainly had a front row seat to the “honeymoon.” In fact, the Media decided to extend the honeymoon for over 4 weeks now. The respected Media Research Center recently released an analysis of the media coverage of Kamala Harris and President Trump since Joe Biden dropped out. Their study found that 84% of the coverage of Kamala Harris was positive while 89% of the coverage of President Trump was negative. But even after all the fawning coverage of Harris and negative coverage of President Trump, we find this race fundamentally tied, particularly in the battleground states going into the DNC. 

However, post-DNC we will likely see another small (albeit temporary) bounce for Harris in the public polls. Post-Convention bounces are a phenomenon that happens after most party conventions. In 2016, President Trump and Hillary Clinton both got an average 2-point bump after their conventions. Back in 1992, Bill Clinton got an 8-point bounce, while that same year, George H.W. Bush got a 5-point bounce. While they vary, the usual range is somewhere between 1 and 4 points according to a report by 538.

So don’t be surprised to see Harris get a temporary 2 to 3 point bump.

But when you see this bounce remember that in 1988, Gallup had Michael Dukakis up 17 on then-Vice President Bush in the immediate aftermath of the DNC. Most polls had John McCain up 2 to 4 points on Barack Obama in 2008 the week after the RNC. In 2016, Hillary Clinton was up 7-points on President Trump after her convention in the RCP average. We all know how those ended up. These bumps do not last.

The other thing to keep in mind is that while the media is going to focus on the national polls, we need to keep our eye on the ball – that is the polling in our target states. Our goal is to get to 270 and winning these states is how we do it. We’ll let the media make mountains out of molehills, while we keep driving forward, sticking to our winning plan of getting President Trump re-elected.

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Donald J. Trump for President 2024, Inc.
August 23, 2024

Trump Campaign Memo on What RFK Jr.'s Exit and Endorsement Means

CONFIDENTIAL MEMORANDUM

 

TO: TEAM TRUMP
FROM: TONY FABRIZIO
RE: WHAT RFK JR.’S EXIT AND ENDORSEMENT MEANS
DATE: AUGUST 23, 2024

With the exit of RFK Jr. from the race and his endorsement of President Trump, there will undoubtedly be a great deal of speculation of what it means and who it will help. I’ve seen the Harris folks already trying to spin that it won’t impact the race.

Well, the data speaks for itself. The table below is from our most recent round of battleground state surveys. As you can clearly see, in every single state RFK Jr.’s vote breaks for President Trump.

 

 

 

To put these numbers into perspective, the net vote gained in a state like Arizona based on just a 2020 turnout model would be over 41,000 votes nearly 4 times Biden’s winning margin or in Georgia the net gain would be over 19,000 votes nearly twice Biden’s margin.

So, when you hear or see the Harris team and/or the Democrats try and spin otherwise, now that the data clearly paints a different picture. This is good news for President Trump and his campaign – plain and simple.

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