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Way to Win


November 7, 2022


2022 Election-Eve Midterm Memo: Solidarity is Critical

As we saw in the ugly events of January 6th, the horrific attack on Paul Pelosi, and the sustained disinformation campaigns and lies peddled by Donald Trump and his extremist MAGA followers, our democracy is at a dangerous inflection point. The 2022 Midterms represent America's first post-insurrection national election, and thus we must recognize we are in uncharted territory. 

The accompanying memo lays out key points for elected officials, campaign strategists, and leading advocates that expect to talk to the press in the lead-up to, on, and after Election Day.

  1. Every voter must be able to cast their vote freely without intimidation, coercion, or interference, and their vote must be counted.

  • MAGA Republicans have honed for 2022 their 2020 election playbook – an election they knew they lost. That means, in a variety of local venues, they will likely:

    • Refuse to commit to accepting the results of elections they lose.

    • Make false claims about voting, counting, and certification. 

    • Harass and intimidate voters, including sending gunmen to lurk near ballot boxes, in Democratic-leaning areas in states with high-profile races like Arizona, Florida, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

    • Threaten election workers with violence.

  • As we saw on January 6th, MAGA Republicans will stop at nothing to threaten our freedoms, including denying our fundamental right to choose our leaders. MAGA Republicans will not hesitate again to lie and lash out – disrupting our institutions and inciting violence – to ensure victory.

  • We see it happening already: in the concerning number of attempts by MAGA extremists to undermine the midterm elections and engage in unlawful voter intimidation and disruption.

    • The Brennan Center for Justice has identified 10 states at a high risk of disruption due to the volume of false allegations and anti-voter activity, including Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Wisconsin.

    • A Trump-appointed federal judge in AZ has allowed MAGA extremists to arm people in tactical gear and intimidate voters contradicting a separate case in which the judge ordered the extremists to stay at least 75 feet away from drop boxes.

    • In Michigan, a judge threw out a MAGA Republican lawsuit that attempted to create doubt about the fairness of Michigan’s election processes.

    • In the past month, major battleground Senate Republican candidates, including Blake Masters in AZ and incumbent Ron Johnson in WI, have already refused to say if they would accept their election results. 

  1. Democrats, progressive organizations, and movement groups joined forces to make this cycle competitive in what history tells us would otherwise be disastrous for the President's party. Democrats and progressive-allied groups formed a pro-freedom, anti-MAGA coalition of multiracial, multigenerational, cross-class voters with diverse ideological views.

  • Even as the media and pundits proclaimed Democrats all but dead earlier this year, organizers and activists mobilized in anticipation of the post-Dobbs, post-January 6th hearings. United and strong Democrats, movement groups, and progressive activists relentlessly changed the midterm's trajectory from a total blood bath into an opportunity.

  • Any victories we see on Nov. 8th and the days following are a tribute to the tireless efforts of these voters, who came together to move our country forward. 

  • Losses we may see can be attributed to a number of macro conditions which ended up being too much to overcome:

    • Only three times in the last 100 years has the party in the White House gained House seats in the midterms.

    • MAGA Republicans exploited a global economic problem of inflation, caused by corporate price gouging and the lingering effects on supply chains of a once-in-a-generation pandemic as a shield for their extremism 

3. Regardless of Tuesday’s results, Democrats cannot afford to waste time engaging in a counterproductive blame game with one another. Solidarity is the only way forward as we face the dire circumstances of MAGA Republicans’ plans to hijack the next two years of the Biden Administration and steal the 2024 presidential election.

  • If baited by the media to point fingers at particular demographics, issue positions, or ideological factions within the Democratic Party for losses, it's crucial to pivot and make it clear why the real blame should fall on MAGA Republicans. 

  • Not surprisingly and for good reason, abortion was a massive motivator for Democrats, Independents, and Republicans, especially women, who overwhelmingly support abortion access. 

    • The 2022 midterms would never have even been competitive without the aggressive campaign around abortion. The long list of MAGA Republicans trying to conceal their record on this topic proves this point. 

  • In their desperation to gain and claim power at any cost, MAGA Republicans have already shown a propensity this cycle to employ every dishonest tactic in their electoral playbook, be it extreme gerrymandering, putting election deniers in charge of statehouses, voter suppression, disinformation, and racist, fear-mongering.

4. Once Election Day and its necessary aftermath pass, Democratic leaders need to immediately turn their attention toward using their power to protect our democracy during the lame-duck session. 

5. We must resist attempts to fracture our pro-freedom, anti-MAGA coalition and make sweeping conclusions until actual voter file data emerges  – exit polling is insufficient and unreliable.

  • In the days following November 8th, Democrats must resist attempts by the media and the GOP to fracture our pro-democracy, anti-MAGA coalition. Exit polling is insufficient and unreliable. 

  • While the media can be expected to make sweeping conclusions about certain demographic groups, we must refrain from doing so until we have actual data from the voter file that we can analyze.

  • Election results from states with high Latino voter populations, such as Florida and Texas, will likely come in early on election night. We must make the case that any early data be paired with the voter turnout data from the western states with high Latino populations that take longer to count, including AZ, NV, and congressional districts in CA.