WISCONSIN 10 Electoral Votes 
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POST-ELECTION.

Badger State Back in the Blue Column

In 2016, Wisconsin was the third closest state in the presidential contest, with Trump winning by 22,748 votes (0.74 percentage points); the state was certain to be closely fought in 2020.  First came the 2018 mid-terms.  State Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Evers (D) defeated Gov. Scott Walker (R), who was seeking a third term, by 1.10 percentage points (+), while Republicans maintained control of the legislature. 

Signalling the importance of Wisconsin in the presidential race, on March 11, 2019 the Democratic National Committee announced Milwaukee as the site of the 2020 Democratic National Convention (+).

A year later in March 2020 the COVID pandemic took hold.  The governor and legislature engaged in embarassing wrangling over how to conduct the April 7, 2020 Spring Election and Presidential Preference Primary safely (+).  Perhaps the most notable result of the elections, was liberal-backed Jill Korofsky's upset win over conservative incumbent Supreme Court Justice Daniel Kelly; Democrats saw this as a positive sign for November.  The pandemic also put the squeeze on the Democratic National Convention.  Planners made various adjustments, finally announcing on Aug. 5 that speakers would not travel to Milwaukee, thereby completing the move to a virtual convention (+).

Meanwhile, questionable rulings by the Wisconsin Elections Commission kept the Green Party ticket, as well as Kanye West, off the ballot.  The WEC ruled against ballot access for the Green Party ticket and for Kanye West; both sued to qualify.  On Sept. 11 Brown Co. Circuit Judge John Zakowski ruled that West's team had failed to file in a timely manner (+).  On Sept. 14 the Wisconsin Supreme Court ruled against Hawkins citing "the lack of sufficient time to complete our review and award any effective relief (+)."  This marked the first time that the Green Party candidate did not make the Wisconsin ballot, all the more grating because Green Party vice presidential nominee Angela Walker hails from Milwaukee. 

The shooting by police of Jacob Blake, a 29-year old Black man, in Kenosha on Aug. 23 led to protests, rioting and looting.  Both Trump and Biden visited the city in early September.  Trump, emphasizing law and order, surveyed property damage (>) and participated in a roundtable (>), while Biden held a low-key community conversation in a church (>). 

As was the case in other battleground states, the two candidates and campaigns took decidedly different approaches.  The Trump campaign kept up a very active schedule of campaign travel by the principals and surrogates, including airport rallies by Trump, Trump family member events, surrogate bus tours, busy field offices and people out knocking on doors.  By late October the campaign claimed 12 million voter contacts in Wisconsin.  The Biden campaign stuck to largely virtual events, and the candidates made just a handful of visits.   The Biden campaign and its allies had a sizable advantage over the Trump campaign in ad spending; Advertising Analytics data showed the Biden campaign and allies had spent $81.9 million from May 1 to Nov. 3 compared to $46.2 million for Trump and allies.

Wisconsin was one of half a dozen states where the Trump campaign contested the outcome.  Pre-election litigation had focused on the received-by deadline for absentee ballots; the courts did not allow for extension beyond Election Day, Nov. 3 (>).  Post-election, the Trump campaign ratcheted up its maneuvering.  It paid $3 million (some of which was later reimbursed) for a partial recount of just Milwaukee and Dane Counties which added a small number of votes to Biden's margin.  On the legal front, a particular focus was the "indefinitely confined" designation which some 238 voters used to obtain their absentee ballots without having to provide an ID.  The courts ruled it was up to voters to make the determination.  Gov. Evers certified the results on Nov. 30, and the electors confirmed Biden as the winner on Dec. 14. 

The total number of votes cast, 3,298,041, was the highest in a Wisconsin election.  Based on voting age population of 4,536,417, the turnout rate of 72.3% was the highest since the 2004 election (>).  59.4% voted absentee by mail, 19.8% absentee in person, and 20.9% at the polls on Nov. 3.

Post-recount, Biden won by 20,682 votes (0.63 percentage points); the state was again the third closest, this time after Georgia and Arizona.  The map looks fairly similar to 2016.  In 2020 Trump carried 58 counties to 14 for Biden compared to 2016 when he carried 60 to 12 for Clinton.  He carried two of the state's eight congressional districts—WI-2, Pocan (Madison) and WI-4, Moore (Milwaukee).  Perhaps the most noticeable result was Dane Co., where Biden obtained 75.46% of the vote and a margin of 52.60 percentage points over Trump compared to 70.37% and 47.33 percentage points for Clinton in 2016.  Biden also improved upon Clinton's margin in Milwaukee Co..  Trump held and improved his showing in many rural counties.  Third party candidates did not fare well, accounting for 1.73% of votes (including scattering) compared to 6.33% in 2016.  Jorgensen-Cohen obtained 1.17% of the vote, way off from the 3.58% achieved by Johnson-Weld in 2016.  The 1.17% was nonetheless the second highest showing ever by a Libertarian presidential ticket in Wisconsin.  As write-ins, Hawkins-Walker obtained just 1,089 votes, while in 2016 the Stein-Baraka Green Party ticket obtained a bit more than 31,000 votes.
  • Analysis by Charles Franklin, director of the Marquette Law School Poll, found that, compared to 2016, the Democratic percent margin increased in 31 counties and the Trump percent margin increased in 41 counties (>).
  • John D. Johnson, a research fellow at the Marquette Law School Lubar Center writes, " Joseph Biden and Kamala Harris netted a larger number of votes than any other Democrat in Milwaukee County’s history."  He highlights " a remarkable blue wave in Milwaukee’s innermost suburbs."
  • Crystal Ball's J. Miles Coleman writes that western Wisconsin was "one of the most disappointing results" for state Democrats.  He summarizes, " In 2016, Donald Trump made major inroads in western Wisconsin. Despite coming up short statewide, his gains in the region largely held."
  • Milwaukee Journal Sentinel's Craig Gilbert reports " there were 536 (mostly small) WI communities that voted for Obama in 2012 and Trump in 2016... Almost all (509) voted for Trump again." 
  • Milwaukee Journal Sentinel's Craig Gilbert reports "WI's very red "WOW" counties outside Milwaukee are no longer a deep red bloc as some suburbs, esp. along MKE county line, grow more purple..."

A Tale of Two Elections: 2016 and 2020


2016





2020





Clinton
Trump
Others
Total
Margin

Biden
Trump
Others
Total
Margin
Statewide

1,382,536
(46.45)
1,405,284
(47.22)
188,330
(6.33)
2,976,150 22,748
(0.74)

1,630,866
(49.45)
1,610,184
(48.82)
56,991
(1.73)
3,298,041 20,682
(0.37)
Results for 2016 and 2020 are post-recount. 
_______________

Comparison of Results in the Ten Counties by Highest Total Vote*

Looking at the top ten counties in terms of total vote in 2020, Trump carried seven and Biden three, but Biden improved on the percent margin against Trump as compared to Trump-Clinton in eight of the ten.  Trump improved on his 2016 margins in Washington Co. and Kenosha Co. and held almost even in Racine Co. (all in SE Wisconsin). 

2016





2020




County
Clinton
Trump
Others
Total
Margin

Biden
Trump
Others
Total
Margin
Milwaukee
288,822
(65.48)
126,069
(28.58)
26,162
(5.93)
441,053
162,753
(36.90)


317,527
(69.07)
134,482
(29.25)
7,714
(1.68)
459,723
183,045
(39.82)

Dane
Madison
217,697
(70.37)
71,275
(23.04)
20,382
(6.59)
309,354
146,422
(47.33)


260,121
(75.46)
78,794
(22.86)
5,813
(1.69)
344,728
181,327
(52.60)

Waukesha
79,224
(33.34)
142,543
(59.99)
15,826
(6.66)
237,593 63,319
(26.65)


103,906
(38.77)
159,649
(59.57)
4,441
(1.66)
267,996
55,743
(20.80)

Brown
Green Bay
53,382
(41.38)
67,210
(52.10)
8,419
(6.53)
129,011
13,828
(10.72)


65,511
(45.49)
75,871
(52.68)
2,635
(1.83)
144,017
10,360
(7.19)

Outagamie
Appleton
38,068
(40.53)
49,897
(53.12)
5,968
(6.35)
93,933
11,829
(12.59)


47,667
(44.13)
58,385
(54.05)
1,970
(1.82)
108,022
10,718
(9.92)

Racine
42,641
(45.22)
46,681
(49.50)
4,980
(5.28)
94,302
4,040
(4.28)


50,159
(47.12)
54,579
(51.27)
1,713
(1.61)
106,451
4,420
(4.15)

Winnebago
Oshkosh
37,047
(42.52)
43,445
(49.86)
6,643
(7.62)
87,135
6,398
(7.34)


44,060
(46.86)
47,796
(50.83)
2,176
(2.31)
94,032
3,736
(3.97)

Kenosha
35,799
(46.92)
36,037
(47.40)
4,468
(5.86)
76,304
238
(0.48)


42,193
(47.55)
44,972
(50.67)
1,573
(1.77)
88,738
2,779
(3.12)

Washington
West Bend
20,852
(27.17)
51,740
(67.41)
4,165
(5.43)
76,757
30,888
(30.24)


26,650
(30.26)
60,237
(68.40)
1,153
(1.34)
88,070
33,537
(38.14)

Rock
Janesville
39,339
(51.71)
31,493
(41.40)
5,242
(6.89)
76,074
7,846
(10.31)


46,685
(54.69)
37,138
(43.51)
1,537
(1.80)
85,360
9,547
(11.18)













These 10
Counties



1,621,516
54.5%
2,976,150





1,787,137
54.2% of
3,298,041

*Total votes in 2020. 

In 2008, Milwaukee Co. accounted for 15.9% of total votes cast (475,192 of 2,983,417).
In 2012, Milwaukee Co. accounted for 16.0% of total votes cast (492,576 of 3,068,434).
In 2016, Milwaukee Co. accounted for 14.8% of total votes cast, Dane Co. 10.4%.
In 2020, Milwaukee Co. accounted for 13.9% of total votes cast, Dane Co. 10.5%.

Comparison of Results in the Ten Counties by Smallest Total Vote*
Of the 10 counties with the smallest vote totals, Trump carried nine, the exception being Menominee Co. in the northeast, which is essentially the Menominee Indian Reservation.  Trump improved on his percent margin in seven of these 10 counties.

2016





2020




County
Clinton
Trump
Others
Total
Margin

Biden
Trump
Others
Total
Margin
Menominee
1,002
(76.61)
267
(20.41)
39
(2.98)
1,308
735
(56.20)


1,303
(81.95)
278
(17.48)
9
(0.57)
1,590
1,025
(64.47)

Florence

665
(25.04)
1,898
(71.46)
93
(3.50)
2,656
1,233
(46.42)


781
(26.56)
2,133
(72.55)
26
(0.88)
2,940
1,352
(45.99)

Iron
1,275
(36.29)
2,081
(59.24)
157
(4.47)
3,513 806
(22.94)


1,533
(38.23)
2,438
(60.80)
39
(0.97)
4,010
905
(22.57)

Pepin

1,344
(35.98)
2,206
(59.06)
185
(4.95)
3,735
862
(23.08)


1,489
(35.93)
2,584
(62.36)
71
(1.71)
4,144
1,095
(26.42)

Forest

1,579
(34.74)
2,787
(61.32)
179
(3.93)
4,545
1,208
(26.58)


1,721
(34.05)
3,285
(65.01)
47
(0.93)
5,053
1,564
(30.95)

Buffalo
2,525
(36.17)
4,048
(57.99)
408
(5.84)
6,981 1,523
(21.82)


2,860
(36.59)
4,834
(61.85)
122
(1.56)
7,816
1,974
(25.26)

Rusk

2,171
(30.63)
4,564
(64.39)
353
(4.98)
7,088
2,393
(33.76)


2,517
(31.92)
5,257
(66.66)
112
(1.42)
7,886
2,740
(34.75)

Price
2,667
(35.24)
4,559
(60.24)
342
(4.52)
7,568
1,892
(25.00)


3,032
(35.48)
5,394
(63.12)
120
(1.40)
8,546
2,362
(27.64)

Lafayette

3,288
(42.91)
3,977
(51.91)
397
(5.18)
7,662
689
(8.99)


3,647
(42.63)
4,821
(56.35)
87
(1.02)
8,555
1,174
(13.72)

Crawford

3,419
(44.24)
3,836
(49.64)
473
(6.12)
7,728
417
(5.40)


3,953
(45.46)
4,620
(53.13)
122
(1.40)
8,695
667
(7.67)

















52,784
1.77% of
2,976,150





59,235
1.80% of
3,298,041



WOW Counties

The so-call WOW Counties (Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington) in the Milwaukee metro area to the west and north of Milwaukee Co. have been Republican strongholds (>). Trump's margins in Waukesha and Ozaukee Cos. eroded significantly, while he did much better in Washington Co. than he had in 2016.

2016





2020




County
Clinton
Trump
Others
Total
Margin

Biden
Trump
Others
Total
Margin
Waukesha

79,224
(33.34)
142,543
(59.99)
15,826
(6.66)
237,593
63,319
(26.65)

103,906
(38.77)
159,649
(59.57)
4,441
(1.66)
267,996
55,743
(20.80)
Ozaukee
Port Washington
20,170
(36.97)
30,464
(55.84)
3,926
(7.20)
54,560
10,294
(18.87)


26,517
(43.13)
33,912
(55.15)
1,057
(1.72)
61,486
7,395
(12.03)
Washington
West Bend
20,852
(27.17)
51,740
(67.41)
4,165
(5.43)
76,757 30,888
(30.24)

26,650
(30.26)
60,237
(68.40)
1,153
(1.34)
88,070 33,537
(38.14)


Biden Flips Two Counties

The two counties Biden flipped were achieved by marginal gains not radical shifts.  Sauk Co. is northwest and adjacent to Dane Co..  Door Co., is on the peninsula between Green Bay and Lake Michigan.

2016





2020




County
Clinton
Trump
Others
Total
Margin

Biden
Trump
Others
Total
Margin
Sauk
Baraboo
14,690
(46.85)
14,799
(47.20)
1,868
(5.96)
31,357
109
(0.35)


18,108
(50.02)
17,493
(48.32)
602
(1.66)
36,203
615
(1.70)

Door
Sturgeon Bay
8,104
(46.07)
8,580
(48.77)
908
(5.16)
17,592
476
(2.71)


10,044
(49.93)
9,752
(48.48)
321
(1.69)
20,117
292
(1.45)






See also:
Andrew C. McCarthy.  "Biden Won Wisconsin, but It Was Even Closer Than Reported."  National Review, Dec. 17, 2020.

Molly Beck, Bill Glauber, Andrew Molllica and Patrick Marley.  "Trump wants to throw out ballots from 238,000 Wisconsin voters."  Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, Nov. 27, 2020.

J. Miles Coleman.  "Wisconsin: Decisive Again in 2020."  Sabato's Crystal Ball, UVA | Center for Politics.  Nov. 19, 2020.

John D. Johnson.  "Biden Wins a Historic Victory in Milwaukee, Driven by Growing Democratic Strength in the Suburbs."  JohnDJohnson.info, Nov. 9, 2020.

 Riley Vetterkind.  "Cities propelled Joe Biden to Wisconsin win as rural areas double down on Donald Trump."  Wisconsin State Journal, Nov. 8, 2020.

Julian Emerson.  "Rural Wisconsin Counties Doubled Down on Trump in 2020."  Up North News, Nov. 6, 2020.

Dan O'Donnell.  "How the Wisconsin Elections Commission Destroyed Fair Elections in Wisconsin."  MacIver Institute, Nov. 5, 2020.


Jeramey Jannene.  "8 Takeaways, How Biden Won Wisconsin."  Urban Milwaukee, Nov. 4, 2020.


Natasha Korecki.  "'There's a big presence in this state that we didn't see 4 years ago.'"  Politico, Nov. 2, 2020.

Tal Axelrod.  "Republicans surpass 150 million voter contacts."  The Hill, Oct. 23, 2020.

--.  "Wisconsin presidential ad spending tops $120M in general election."  wispolitics.com, Oct. 23, 2020.

Thomas Beaumont and Lisa Mascaro.  "Pandemic politicking: Democrats at laptops. GOP at your door."  AP, Sept. 4, 2020.

David Weigel.  "The seven political states of Wisconsin."  Washington Post, Aug. 16, 2020.

John Nichols.  "How to Win in Wisconsin."  The Nation, Mar. 30, 2020.

Charles Franklin, Co-Dev. http://Pollster.com, Dev-http://PollsAndVotes.Com, Director Marquette Law School Poll, Prof Emeritus UW-Madison. R nerd.  @PollsandVotes

Craig Gilbert, Political reporter, Washington Bureau Chief for Milwaukee Journal Sentinel and JSOnline. Writes The Wisconsin Voter blog.  @WisVoter