PENNSYLVANIA 20 Electoral Votes 
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Organization: Biden  |  Trump  ||  Visits  ||  Advertising.
Examples of activity by the campaigns, parties and allied groups: D, allies | R, allies. 
POST-ELECTION.

Biden Reclaims the Keystone State and Takes the White House

Decided by just 44,292 votes (0.73 percentage points) in 2016, Pennsylvania was arguably the most closely fought battleground state in 2020.  There were frequent visits by principals and surrogates from both campaigns.  Pennsylvania saw second largest amount of spending on presidential advertising after Florida by the campaigns and their allies from May 1 to Nov. 3; adjusting in terms of spending per electoral vote, Pennsylvania led all states in presidential ad spending.  Robust pre-election legal maneuvering was another indicator of the closely fought contest (+).

Almost 800,000 more people voted than in the Nov. 2016 general election.  Act 77, signed into law by Gov. Wolf on Oct. 31, 2019, instituted major changes to voting, providing for no excuse mail in voting and a 50-day mail in voting period.  While 57.71% of Biden voters voted by mail and 40.75% on Election Day, only 17.63% of Trump voters voted by mail; the vast majority, 80.86% voted on Election Day. 

Biden's Scranton roots were a key part of his appeal to working Americans (+)—he spent his first ten years there until his family moved to Delaware in 1953.  Jill Biden too has Pennsylvania ties, having grown up in Willow Grove, an edge city of Philadelphia.  Biden set up his campaign headquarters in Philadelphia and held his kickoff rally at Eakins Oval in Philadelphia in May 2019 (+).  From his home in neighboring Delaware, Biden could easily visit Pennsylvania, and he did so frequently during the general election campaign.  Biden delivered his most noteworthy speeches of the general election campaign in Pennsylvania.  In his "Build Back Better" address from Dunmore on July 9 he set out a core theme that under his campaign for the next four months (+).  On Aug. 31 in Pittsburgh, he rebutted  charges by Trump and his supporters that he was " a radical socialist with a soft spot for rioters (+)."  On Oct. 6 at Gettysburg, he delivered a call to "marshal the ingenuity and good will of this nation to turn division into unity and bring us together."  Strong turnout in Philadelphia was essential to Democrats' chances in the state, and Biden, Harris and top surrogates did a lot of events around the city.  Over the closing five weeks the campaign transitioned from virtual to in-person action including over 500,000 doors knocked in Philadelphia.  As in other battleground states the Biden campaign and its allies vastly outspent the Republican side; according to data from AdImpact from May 1 to Nov. 3 by Biden for President and allies spent $177.1 million on paid advertising compared to $91.1 million for Trump and allies.

Republicans had a couple of points in their favor.  Between Nov. 2016 and Nov. 2020, Republicans achieved significant gains in voter registration, reducing the Democrats' advantage from 10.51 percentage points (48.35% to 37.84%) to 7.55 percentage points (46.52% to 38.97%).  Additionally Trump and family were willing to put in the work.  For the every one of the final 15 days of the campaign to Nov. 2, Trump, Pence, their spouses or a family surrogate was in state doing events.  These ranged from the President's large airport rallies to a couple of rare appearances by Melania Trump; even Tiffany Trump put in a couple of appearances.  In contrast to the Biden campaign, Trump and principle surrogates generally steered clear of Philadelphia Co.; the only notable event in the city was President Trump's town hall with ABC News from the National Constitution Center on Sept. 15.  One issue the Trump campaign raised frequently was the charge that Biden would "end fracking," costing the state jobs (+). 

Wikipedia tallied nine endorsements by daily newspapers for Biden to one for Trump; the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette's editorial board wrote, "Donald Trump is not Churchill, to be sure, but he gets things done." (>)

The Biden campaign's closing push in Pennsylvania was its most intense of any state; Biden did multiple events in Pennsylvania on Nov. 1, 2 and 3, including a visit to his childhood home in Scranton on Nov. 3.  The AP's call of Pennsylvania for Biden on Nov. 7 put him over the 270 electoral vote threshold and made him president-elect.  The final tally showed a 80,555 vote margin (1.16 percentage points), making Pennsylvania the fourth closest state.  


A Tale of Two Elections: Philadelphia in 2016 and 2020

The five-county Philadelphia area provided enough of a cushion to produce a Biden win.  The 2.3 million votes cast in the Philadelphia counties accounted for 33.12% of votes cast in the presidential race (compared to 33.57% in 2016).  Trump chipped a bit off the Democratic ticket's margin in Philadelphia County (from Clinton's 67.16 percentage points to Biden's 63.53 percentage points),  but Biden improved upon Clinton's margins in all four surrounding counties.  As result Biden grew the margin out of the Philadelphia counties by 1.04 percentage points or 100,514 votes (from 663,630 votes to 764,144 votes).

results
excel









County
Clinton
Trump
Others
Total
Margin

Biden
Trump
Jorgensen
Total
Margin
Philadelphia

584,025
(82.53)
108,748
(15.37)
14,858
(2.10)
707,631
475,277
(67.16)


603,790
(81.44)
132,740
(17.90)
4,847
(0.65)
741,377
471,050
(63.53)
Delaware

177,402
(59.60)
110,667
(37.18)
9,565
(3.22)
297,364
66,735
(22.44)


206,423
(62.95)
118,532
(36.15)
2,976
(0.91)
327,931
87,891
(26.80)

Montgomery

256,082
(58.91)
162,731
(37.44)
15,874
(3.65)
434,687
93,351
(21.48)


319,511
(62.63)
185,460
(36.35)
5,186
(1.02)
510,157 134,051
(26.28)

Chester

141,682
(52.71)
116,114
(43.20)
11,004
(4.09)
268,800
25,568
(9.51)


182,372
(57.99)
128,565
(40.88)
3,565
(1.13)
314,502
53,807
(17.11)

Bucks

167,060
(48.52)
164,361
(47.74)
12,876
(3.74)
344,297
2,699
(0.78)

204,712
(51.66)
187,367
(47.29)
4,155
(1.05)
396,234
17,345
(4.37)

5 Phila. Cos.
1,326,251
(64.61)
662,621
(32.28)
64,177
(3.13)
2,052,779
663,630
(32.33)

1,516,808
(66.23)
752,664
(32.86)
20,729
(0.91)

2,290,201
764,144
(33.37)
Statewide 2,926,441
(47.85)
2,970,733
(48.58)
218,228
(3.57)
6,115,402
44,292
(0.73)


3,458,229
(50.01)
3,377,674
(48.84)
79,380
(1.15)

6,915,283 80,555
(1.16)

 
Two Counties Flipped, Both to Biden
County
Clinton
Trump
Others
Total
Margin

Biden
Trump
Jorgensen
Total
Margin
Northampton

66,272
(46.18)
71,736
(49.98)
5,511
(3.84)
143,519
5,464
(3.81)


85,087
(49.78)
83,854
(49.05)
2,001
(1.17)
170,942
1,233
(0.73)

Erie

58,112
(46.99)
60,069
(48.57)
5,498
(4.45)
123,679
1,957
(1.58)


68,286
(49.81)
66,869
(48.78)
1,928
(1.41)
137,083
1,417
(1.03)


See also:
Jonathan Tamari and Jonathan Lai.  "With the vote count now over, here's how Pennsylvania broke for Joe Biden."  Philadelphia Inquirer, Nov. 29, 2020.

Evan Medina and Peter Dougherty.  "The Not-So-Secret Key to Biden's PA Victory: Voters of Color."  Medium, Nov. 22, 2020.

Keith Collins, Ford Fessenden, Lazaro Gamio, Rich Harris, Joh Keefe, Denise Lu, Eleanor Lutz, Amy Schoenfeld Walker, Derek Watkins and Karen Yourish.  "How Biden Flipped Pennsylvania and Won the Election."  New York Times, Nov. 7, 2020.

Editorial Board.  "The man and the record."  Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, Nov. 1, 2020 [online Oct. 31].

Sean Sullivan.  "Democrats grow more anxious about Pennsylvania."  The Washington Post, Oct. 31, 2020.

Jamie Martines.  "Potentially thousands of requested mail ballots lost in Butler County, official says."  Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, Oct. 29, 2020.

Julia Terruso.  "White women are ditching Trump, and it could cost him Pennsylvania."  Philadelphia Inquirer, Oct. 19, 2020.

Laura Barron-Lopez and Holly Otterbein.  "Donald Trump has a problem: White women in Pennsylvania."  Politico, Oct. 19, 2020.

Jonathan LeMire Marc Levy and Thomas Beaumont.  "Trump shifts focus to Pennsylvania to shore up reelection."  AP, Sept. 26, 2020.

David Weigel.  "The seven political states of Pennsylvania."  Washington Post, Sept. 8, 2020.

Politico: Pennsylvania.


                            Harrisburg - Oct. 27, 2020.