OHIO 18 Electoral Votes 
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Ohio Solid for Trump

Ohio was a swing state, but was seen as leaning Republican.  Republicans controlled all statewide offices except the U.S. Senate seat held by Sherrod Brown, had 12 of 16 U.S. House seats and majorities in both chambers of the state legislature.  Trump won by 8.13 points in 2016, but not so long ago Obama-Biden carried the state, by 4.59 percentage points in 2008 and 2.98 points in 2012.

Two Ohio politicians figured marginally in the Democratic presidential primary campaign.  Sen. Sherrod Brown was seen as a potentially strong candidate, able to appeal to blue collar voters.  After doing a "Dignity of Work" tour in early 2019, he announced on Mar. 7, 2019 that he would remain in the Senate and would not run (+).  Rep. Tim Ryan announced his candidacy on Apr. 4, 2019 but withdrew after a bit more than six months on Oct. 24 (+).

Given Trump's promises to revive manufacturing, the closure of General Motors' Lordstown assembly plant in Warren (Trumbull County in the Mahoning Valley) was a political issue.  GM announced the move in Nov. 2018 and the last Chevrolet Cruze rolled off the line in Mar. 2019.  The story did not end there however.  On Mar. 5, 2020 a new company, Lordstown Motors, announced it would build electric pick up trucks at the plant.  On Sept. 28, 2020, President Trump inspected one of the trucks in an event on the South Lawn at the White House (+).

In Aug. 2020, Trump set off a bit of controversy when he tweeted a call for a boycott of Goodyear, the Akron-based firm.  Democrats were quick to criticize him, even running ads (+).

The Trump ground game started early and was fully engaged; by early October the campaign reported 10 million voter contacts including two million door knocks.  The Biden campaign did not name a state director until July 17.  One local Democratic leader in Cleveland opined that, "The Democratic Party in Ohio and Cuyahoga County did not perform well."  In a Nov. 4 opinion piece, Rebecca Maurer, a local attorney and Ward Leader in Ward 12 for the Cuyahoga County Democratic Party, complained that, "The Biden campaign wrote off Ohio. We had few resources, little support and no field offices. Strategy does change when you are campaigning in a global pandemic, but the apathy towards the state was palpable."  Further, she wrote, "There was no consistent direction or resources given from Party leadership."  [Registration numbers in Cuyahoga Co. were lower in 2020 than in 2016.  Turnout was higher in 2020 than 2016, 70.41% compared to 67.80% of registered voters in 2016.  Trump did chip off a bit off the Democratic margin].

On Sept. 29 Cleveland was the center of attention as the two candidates debated at the Health Education Campus of Case Western Reserve University and the Cleveland Clinic.  The event proved to be a verbal food fight. 

The race seemed to tighten in the closing weeks.  The Trump campaign put in nine visits in the last 14 days, six of which were by family members.  Ivanka Trump made the campaign's closing appearance, in Youngstown on Oct. 31; Trump carried Mahoning Co., the first time since 1972 that a Republican had won there.  During the course of the Fall campaign, Trump surrogates made three appearances at Cedar Springs Pavilion in Tipp City: Don Trump Jr. on Sept. 30, Karen Pence on Oct. 22 and Eric Trump on Oct. 28.  This was a case of turning out the base; Tipp City is in Miami Co., a solidly Republican county just outside Dayton.  [Trump carried Miami Co. with a slightly higher share of the vote but a slightly reduced margin, obtaining 41,371 votes (71.36%) to 15,663 votes for Biden (27.02%) compared to 37,079 votes (70.31%) for Trump and 13,120 (24.88%) for Clinton in 2016].  On the Democratic side there were only six visits in the Fall.  Biden's first visit was a train tour through Ohio and Pennsylvania following the debate; he also made a late visit to Cleveland on Nov. 2.

Ohio saw modest spending on presidential advertising, but nowhere near the level of the most competitive states.  The Trump campaign, which in June planned to spend $18.4 million on network TV advertising in Ohio, shifted a lot of that to other states and ultimately spent $4.4 million.

Ultimately the result was quite similar to 2016.  Trump won by a margin of 8.03 percentage points compared to 8.13 percentage points in 2016.  Trump carried 81 counties to seven for Biden; Biden won the six biggest counties plus Athens Co. in the Southeast.  In 2016 Trump carried 80 counties to eight for Clinton.  The 2020 and 2016 showings represent a considerable narrowing for the Democrats; in 2012 Obama carried 17 counties, in 2008 Obama carried 22 counties, and in 2004 and 2000 the Democratic ticket carried 16 counties.


A Tale of Two Elections: 2016 and 2020
Statewide


2016




2020




Clinton
Trump
Others
Total
Margin

Biden
Trump
Others
Total
Margin
Statewide 2,394,164
(43.56)
2,841,005
(51.69)
261,318
(4.75)
5,496,487 446,841
(8.13)


2,679,165
(45.24)
3,154,834
(53.27)
88,203
(1.49)
5,922,202 475,669
 (8.03)


Three Counties Flipped
Montgomery Co. (Dayton) was a Democratic gain from 2016, but the Dayton Daily News noted that "Trump scored lopsided victories in eight of the nine counties in the Dayton region."  Trump added Lorain and Mahoning Cos. to the Republican column; he was the first Republican presidential nominee to carry Mahoning Co. since 1972.

Clinton
Trump
Others
Total
Margin

Biden
Trump
Others
Total
Margin
Montgomery
(Dayton)
122,016
(47.24)
123,909
(47.97)
12,376
(4.79)
258,301
1,893
(0.73)


135,064
(50.30)
129,034
(48.06)
4,407
(1.64)
268,505
6,030
(2.25)

Lorain
(Elyria)
66,949
(47.63)
66,818
(47.54)
6,793
(4.83)
140,560
131
(0.09)


75,667
(48.06)
79,520
(50.51)
2,250
(1.43)
157,437
3,853
(2.45)

Mahoning
(Youngstown)
57,381
(49.87)
53,616
(46.59)
4,075
(3.54)
115,072
3,765
(3.27)


57,641
(48.45)
59,903
(50.35)
1,422
(1.20)
118,966
2,262
(1.90)


Six Biggest Counties
Biden carried only seven counties—the six biggest counties plus Athens Co. in the Southeast.

Clinton
Trump
Others
Total
Margin

Biden
Trump
Others
Total  reg
Margin
Franklin
(Columbus)
351,198
(60.43)
199,331
(34.30)
30,608
(5.27)
581,137
843,481
151,867
(26.13)


409,144
(64.88)
211,237
(33.50)
10,196
(1.62)
630,577
882,635
197,907
(31.39)

Cuyahoga
(Cleveland)
398,271
(65.96)
184,211
(30.51)
21,340
(3.53)
603,822
890,626
214,060
(35.45)


416,176
(66.52)
202,699
(32.40)
6,795
(1.09)
625,670
888,556
213,477
(34.12)

Hamilton
(Cincinnati)
215,719
(52.73)
173,665
(42.45)
19,725
(4.82)
409,109
580,341
42,054
(10.28)


246,266
(57.15)
177,886
(41.28)
6,777
(1.57)
430,929
600,386
68,380
(15.87)

Summit
(Akron)
134,256
(52.04)
112,026
(43.42)
11,697
(4.53)
257,979
360,766
22,230
(8.62)


151,668
(54.08)
124,833
(44.51)
3,972
(1.42)
280,473
379,673
26,835
(9.57)

Montgomery
(Dayton)
122,016
(47.24)
123,909
(47.97)
12,376
(4.79)
258,301
372,674
1,893
(0.73)

135,064
(50.30)
129,034
(48.06)
4,407
(1.64)
268,505
372,139
6,030
(2.25)
Lucas
(Toledo)
110,833
(56.10)
75,698
(38.32)
11,025
(5.58)
197,556
300,920
35,135
(17.78)


115,411
(57.52)
81,783
(40.76)
3,449
(1.72)
200,643
299,794
33,628
(16.76)

In 2016 Franklin (10.57%) and Cuyahoga (10.99%) Cos. accounted for 21.56% of votes tallied in the presidential race (1,184,959 of 5,496,487).  In those two counties Clinton amassed a margin of 365,927 votes (30.88 percentage points).
In 2020 Franklin (10.64%) and Cuyahoga (10.56%) Cos. accounted for 21.21% of votes tallied in the presidential race (1,256,247 of 5,922,202).  In those two counties Biden amassed a margin of 411,384 votes (32.75 percentage points).
Trump improved upon his 2016 margins in Cuyahoga and Lucas Cos.; compared to Clinton, Biden achieved significant gains in Franklin and Hamilton Cos. and a smaller improvement in Summit Co.,


See also:

Lynn Hulsey.  "Most local counties went for Trump. What does that say about Ohio
?Dayton Daily News, Nov. 5, 2020.

Jack Butler.  "Pollsters Also Blew It in Ohio – Again"  National Review, Nov. 4, 2020.

Rebecca Maurer.  "Opinion: After Disappointing Cleveland Turnout, County Democratic Party at a Crossroads."  Cleveland Scene, Nov. 4, 2020.

David Weigel.  "The seven political states of Ohio."  Washington Post, Oct. 11, 2020.
 

Marc Caputo and Natasha Korecki.  "Biden puts Ohio in play."  Politico, Oct. 2, 2020.

Amanda Garrett.  "Akron, the #RubberCity, reacts to Trump's tweet against Goodyear."  Akron Beacon Journal, Aug. 19, 2020.

Trip Gabriel.  "Will Trump’s Troubles Turn Ohio Back Into a Tossup State?"  New York Times, July 17, 2020.

Jonathan Easley.  "Ohio is suddenly a 2020 battleground."  The Hill, June 6, 2020.