| NORTH CAROLINA |
15 Electoral Votes |
 |
Organization: Biden |
Trump
||
Visits
|| Advertising.
Examples of activity by the campaigns, parties and allied groups: D, allies | R, allies.
Photos: President Donald Trump in Gastonia on Oct. 21 | More.
After Closely Fought Campaign, North
Carolina Backs Trump
Both campaigns were fully engaged in North Carolina, and
competitive races for U.S. Senate and governor added to the
intensity.
The presidential result was the fifth closest of the states,
as Trump-Pence won with a plurality of 1.34 percentage
points. At the same time, North Carolinians re-elected
Gov. Roy Cooper (D) and Sen. Tom Tillis (R).
Trump carried four counties also carried by Moore—Granville, Lenoir, Martin and Scotland. Other statewide races were close as well. Ultimately, in addition to the office of Governor, Democrats won Attorney General, Auditor and Secretary of State, while Republicans won Lt. Governor, Commissioners of Agriculture, Insurance and Labor, Superintendent of Public Instruction and Treasurer. Democrats had high hopes of defeating Sen. Thom Tillis, but those faded with his acknowledgement of an extramarital affair. Tillis prevailed by a narrow margin. Republicans swept the three Supreme Court races and five Court of Appeals races, winning the Supreme Court Chief Justice seat by just 401 votes. Republicans also thwarted efforts by Democrats and their allies to gain control of one or both chambers of the State Legislature.
In an early signal of North Carolina's importance, in July 2018 the RNC announced Charlotte as the site of the 2020 Republican National Convention (+). The convention team (+) and the host committee (+) put in over a year planning the gathering, scheduled to be held Aug. 24-27. However, the pandemic intervened. President Trump objected to limitations on gatherings imposed by North Carolina officials and pulled the plug; the Queen City ended up with just a business session on Aug. 24 (1, 2).
Polling fairly consistently showed Biden ahead by a small margin, but the hard work of the Trump campaign made a difference. The ground game got off to an early start and by July 22 the North Carolina team reported over three million calls made; by Sept. 24 the campaign reported seven million voter contacts including over one million doors knocked. The Biden campaign emphasized virtual events and phonebanking.
The Trump campaign plied the state with numerous visits by the candidates and surrogates, among the most of any state. From Sept. 1 to Nov. 3, Trump made 10 visits, Pence six, and assorted family surrogates 20. North Carolina Republican Party chairman Michael Whatley tweeted that Trump's Oct. 21 rally in Gastonia was "the largest in NC political history" with 28,278 people registered; final attendance according to WBTV was at least 23,000. Trump's Oct. 24 rally in Lumberton in Robeson County attracted notice as part of an effort to win support of members of the Lumbee Tribe. Many surrogate events were in out of the way towns and unincorporated communities. Trump's daughter-in-law Lara, who married Eric Trump in 2014, added a local connection, hailing from Wilmington. Three times a visit by President Trump was followed the next day by a visit by Vice President Pence to another part of the state. For each of the final seven days from Oct. 27-Nov. 2, a candidate or surrogate (or two) campaigned in state.
Biden candidate and surrogate travel to North Carolina was much more limited, and the events were small and socially distanced. Biden's first event was a Black economic summit in Charlotte on Sept. 23, and many of the campaign's events targeted the Black community. Among the stops that attracted the most attention, however, was an unannounced stop following an event in Durham, where, with one of his granddaughters, he ordered milkshakes at a Cookout.
North Carolina was third among the states in total spending on presidential advertising, totaling $154.6 million in this six-month period behind Florida and Pennsylvania. Calculating spending per electoral vote by Trump and allies, North Carolina topped the list. Trump and allies outspent Biden and allies by $86.6 million to $68.0 million, or 27.4% more. In September the Biden campaign released some interesting advertising targeting Black voters, including "Shop Talk" ads filmed at 360 Barbershop in Durham and an ad featuring Celeste Beatty and her business Harlem Brew South in Rocky Mount. These ads also garnered considerable free media attention.
In addition to the campaigns, outside groups were active. In early October, Republican Voters Against Trump put up billboards featuring Republican voters supporting Biden, according to the Charlotte Observer "more than 100 billboards across the state at a cost of nearly $700,000."
Examples of activity by the campaigns, parties and allied groups: D, allies | R, allies.
Photos: President Donald Trump in Gastonia on Oct. 21 | More.
After Closely Fought Campaign, North
Carolina Backs Trump
Both campaigns were fully engaged in North Carolina, and
competitive races for U.S. Senate and governor added to the
intensity.
The presidential result was the fifth closest of the states,
as Trump-Pence won with a plurality of 1.34 percentage
points. At the same time, North Carolinians re-elected
Gov. Roy Cooper (D) and Sen. Tom Tillis (R). Top
of the Ticket Races
| Trump (R) 2,758,775 (49.93%) |
Biden (D) 2,684,292 (48.59%) |
Jorgensen (L) 48,678 (0.88%) |
Others* 33,059 (0.59) |
Total 5,525,804* |
Plurality 74,483 (1.34%) |
| Forest (R) 2,586,605 (47.01%) |
Cooper (D) 2,834,790 (51.52%) |
DiFiore (L) 60,449 (1.10%) |
Pisano (C) 20,934 (0.38%) |
5,502,778 |
248,185 (4.51%) |
| Tillis (R) 2,665,598 (48.69%) |
Cunningham (D) 2,569,965 (46.94%) |
Bray (L) 171,571 (3.13%) |
Hayes (C) 67,818 (1.24%) |
5,474,952 |
95,663 (1.75%) |
*Presidential total includes 13,315 write-in votes, 12,195 votes for Hawkins and 7,549 votes for Blankenship. Write-in votes were reported for the presidential race because Jade Simmons submitted the 500 signatures neccessary to qualify. Simmons received only 119 votes of 13,315 total write-in votes tallied. In the other races no write-in candidate qualified and the write-in option did not appear on the ballot, so write-in votes were not tallied.
Trump carried four counties also carried by Moore—Granville, Lenoir, Martin and Scotland. Other statewide races were close as well. Ultimately, in addition to the office of Governor, Democrats won Attorney General, Auditor and Secretary of State, while Republicans won Lt. Governor, Commissioners of Agriculture, Insurance and Labor, Superintendent of Public Instruction and Treasurer. Democrats had high hopes of defeating Sen. Thom Tillis, but those faded with his acknowledgement of an extramarital affair. Tillis prevailed by a narrow margin. Republicans swept the three Supreme Court races and five Court of Appeals races, winning the Supreme Court Chief Justice seat by just 401 votes. Republicans also thwarted efforts by Democrats and their allies to gain control of one or both chambers of the State Legislature.
In an early signal of North Carolina's importance, in July 2018 the RNC announced Charlotte as the site of the 2020 Republican National Convention (+). The convention team (+) and the host committee (+) put in over a year planning the gathering, scheduled to be held Aug. 24-27. However, the pandemic intervened. President Trump objected to limitations on gatherings imposed by North Carolina officials and pulled the plug; the Queen City ended up with just a business session on Aug. 24 (1, 2).
Polling fairly consistently showed Biden ahead by a small margin, but the hard work of the Trump campaign made a difference. The ground game got off to an early start and by July 22 the North Carolina team reported over three million calls made; by Sept. 24 the campaign reported seven million voter contacts including over one million doors knocked. The Biden campaign emphasized virtual events and phonebanking.
The Trump campaign plied the state with numerous visits by the candidates and surrogates, among the most of any state. From Sept. 1 to Nov. 3, Trump made 10 visits, Pence six, and assorted family surrogates 20. North Carolina Republican Party chairman Michael Whatley tweeted that Trump's Oct. 21 rally in Gastonia was "the largest in NC political history" with 28,278 people registered; final attendance according to WBTV was at least 23,000. Trump's Oct. 24 rally in Lumberton in Robeson County attracted notice as part of an effort to win support of members of the Lumbee Tribe. Many surrogate events were in out of the way towns and unincorporated communities. Trump's daughter-in-law Lara, who married Eric Trump in 2014, added a local connection, hailing from Wilmington. Three times a visit by President Trump was followed the next day by a visit by Vice President Pence to another part of the state. For each of the final seven days from Oct. 27-Nov. 2, a candidate or surrogate (or two) campaigned in state.
Biden candidate and surrogate travel to North Carolina was much more limited, and the events were small and socially distanced. Biden's first event was a Black economic summit in Charlotte on Sept. 23, and many of the campaign's events targeted the Black community. Among the stops that attracted the most attention, however, was an unannounced stop following an event in Durham, where, with one of his granddaughters, he ordered milkshakes at a Cookout.
North Carolina was third among the states in total spending on presidential advertising, totaling $154.6 million in this six-month period behind Florida and Pennsylvania. Calculating spending per electoral vote by Trump and allies, North Carolina topped the list. Trump and allies outspent Biden and allies by $86.6 million to $68.0 million, or 27.4% more. In September the Biden campaign released some interesting advertising targeting Black voters, including "Shop Talk" ads filmed at 360 Barbershop in Durham and an ad featuring Celeste Beatty and her business Harlem Brew South in Rocky Mount. These ads also garnered considerable free media attention.
In addition to the campaigns, outside groups were active. In early October, Republican Voters Against Trump put up billboards featuring Republican voters supporting Biden, according to the Charlotte Observer "more than 100 billboards across the state at a cost of nearly $700,000."
A Tale of Two Elections: The Two Big Counties in 2016 and 2020
North Carolina has two counties with
populations over one million: Mecklenburg Co. (Charlotte)
and Wake Co. (Raleigh). Biden gains upon the
Democrats' 2016 showings in these two counties contributed
significantly to the narrower Trump margin in 2020 compared
to 2016.
In 2016 these two counties accounted for 1,000,481 votes of 4,750,564 votes tallied for president (21.1%).
In 2020 these two counties accounted for 1,198,883 votes of 5,525,804 votes tallied for president (21.7%).
In 2016 these two counties accounted for 1,000,481 votes of 4,750,564 votes tallied for president (21.1%).
In 2020 these two counties accounted for 1,198,883 votes of 5,525,804 votes tallied for president (21.7%).
| 2016 |
2020 |
||||||||||
| County |
Clinton |
Trump |
Others |
Total |
Margin |
Biden |
Trump |
Others |
Total
|
Margin |
|
| Mecklenburg |
294,562 (62.29) |
155,518 (32.89) |
22,777 (4.82) |
472,857 |
139,044 (29.40) |
378,107 (66.68) |
179,211 (31.60) |
9,735 (1.72) |
567,053 |
198,896 (35.08) |
|
| Wake |
302,736 (57.38) |
196,082 (37.16) |
28,806 (5.46) |
527,624 |
106,654 (20.22) |
393,336 (62.25) |
226,197 (35.80) |
12,297 (1.95) |
631,830 |
167,139 (26.45) |
|
| Statewide | 2,189,316 (46.17) |
2,362,631 (49.83) |
189,617 (3.99) |
4,750,564 |
164,315 (3.66) |
2,684,292 (48.59) |
2,758,775 (49.93) |
81,737 (1.47) |
5,525,804 |
74,483 (1.34) |
See also:
Sean Collins. "What happened to Democrats in North Carolina: "It was a total effort that failed down ballot." Vox, Nov. 30, 2020.
Paul Woolverton and Brian Gordon. "Red shift, blue shift: These five maps illustrate Trump's gains and losses in North Carolina." Citizen Times (USA Today Network), Nov. 12, 2020.
Keith Collins, Ford Fessenden, Lazaro Gamlo, Rich Harris, John Keefe, Denise Lu, Eleanor Lutz, Am Schoenfeld Walker, Derek Watkins and Karen Yourish. "Trump Fights to Keep North Carolina Red." New York Times, updated Nov. 10, 2020.
Andrew Carter. "Urban and rural NC were already divided. The 2020 election pushed them farther apart." News & Observer, Nov. 7, 2020.
Evie Fordham. "Trump investment in North Carolina's Native American Lumbee Tribe pays off." Fox News, Nov. 6, 2020.
Laura Pellicer. "Trump and Biden Campaign Target Lumbee Community Ahead of Election." WUNC, Oct. 30, 2020.
Elena Schneider. "Booming suburbs boost Biden in North Carolina." Politico, Oct. 21, 2020.
Annie Linskey. " The Trump team knocks on doors. Biden’s supporters dial phones. Voters in North Carolina see two very different campaigns, each risky." Washington Post, Sept. 22, 2020.
Oct. 22, 2020 - Democratic and Republican activists in the parking lot at the early voting site at Southwest Library, 2944 S. Highway 127 in Hickory, NC.
| Copyright © 2020 Eric M. Appleman/Democracy in Action. |
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