Organization: Biden  |  Trump  ||  Visits  ||  Advertising.
Examples of activity by the campaigns, parties and allied groups: D, allies | R, allies  | C
POST-ELECTION.

As the closest state in 2016, Michigan was a battleground from the outset.  The political terrain was quite different than in 2016 when Trump eked out a 0.23 percentage point victory here.  In 2018  Michiganders elected Democratic former Ingham County prosecutor Gretchen Whitmer as governor and Democrats picked up two U.S. House seats, CD-8 in Southeast Michigan and CD-11 in outer Detroit.  Democrats were also encouraged by record turnout in the March 10, 2020 primary (+); 380,000 more Democrats turned out in 2020 than in 2016.  Biden won the primary by 16.59 percentage points over Sanders, carrying all 83 counties; by contrast in 2016 Clinton narrowly lost to Sanders in the primary. 

Part of Biden's appeal was his work on the recovery during the Obama Administration.  He argued, "In 2009, when Detroit was on its back, Barack and I bet on auto workers; we stepped in and rescued the auto industry and saved at least one million jobs."

Gov. Whitmer and President Trump sniped at each other on pandemic response and other issues.  Whitmer was subject of some vice presidential speculation.  On Oct. 8 there was troubling news as the U.S. Department of Justice announced the arrest of six men for plotting to kidnap Whitmer (+).

As in other states there was a stark contrast between the Trump campaign's active, in-person approach, emphasizing the ground game and events, and the Biden campaign's largely virtual effort.  However, starting in September the Biden campaign did make a fairly steady stream of candidate and surrogate visits, including Biden-Obama drive in events in Flint and Detroit on Oct. 31.  Most of the campaign's events were invitation-only and social distanced with small audiences.  After relatively light activity in September, the Trump campaign plied the state with visits by the principals and family members in the second half of October, and Trump's last stop on the campaign trail was a rally with Pence in Grand Rapids on Nov. 2.

Trump consistently trailed in polls in Michigan, to the point where the campaign stopped broadcast advertising for seven weeks starting in July to the second week of September.  Trump allies did not effectively fill the gap.  The disparity in ad spending was among the largest of any of the battleground states; according to data from AdImpact, Biden and allies outspent Trump and allies in Michigan in the six months from May 1 to Nov. 3 by slightly more than 3 to 1 or $77.2 million.  There was also a lot of advertising in the race between U.S. Senate Gary Peters and John James, which was one of the ten most expensive Senate contests of the cycle.

Michigan was one several states with laws preventIng counting of mail votes before Election Day.  On Oct. 6, 2020 Gov. Whitmer signed into law S.B. 757, allowing local election officials to start opening absent voter ballot return envelopes on the day before election day.  This was an improvement although the Secretary of State noted, "The Bipartisan Policy Center recommends clerks have at least seven days to process absentee ballots before Election Day. This bill allows only ten hours, only minimal processing, and includes a sunset provision..." 

AP called Michigan for Biden early on the evening of Nov. 4.  Final results showed a statewide shift of 3.01 percentage points toward the Democratic ticket.  Biden flipped Kent, Saginaw and Leelanau counties.  Support for Trump in the suburbs/exurbs of Detroit, notably Oakland Co., eroded.  The Black vote was crucial to Biden's win (>); for example in Detroit, where Biden won almost 94% of the vote, 78% of the population of is African American.  Union members also mobilized.  In 2020 union members in Michigan accounted for 15.2% of those employed compared to the national union membership rate of 10.8% (>).

Post-election, Michigan was one of half a dozen states at the center of the Trump campaign's unsubstantiated charges of election fraud. 

Statewide the vote shifted 3.01 percentage points to give Biden the win.

Erosion of support in the suburbs/exurbs of Detroit cost Trump.  Biden increased the margin in Oakland Co. from Clinton's 8.05 percentage points to 14.04 percentage points, and pared Trump's margin in Macomb Co. from 11.54 percentage points to 8.08 percentage points.