| GEORGIA | 16 Electoral Votes |
 |
Organization: Biden
| Trump
||
General
Election Visits || Advertising.
Examples of activity by the campaigns, parties and allied groups: D, allies | R, allies.
POST-ELECTION.
Georgia Surprises...Twice
The Republican presidential ticket has carried Georgia every
election since 1996, but that changed in 2020 as the
Biden-Harris ticket eked out its closest win in any
state. Democrats came close in 2018 when Brian Kemp (R)
defeated Stacey Abrams (D) in the race for governor
by 50.22% to 48.83%. Democrats pointed to increases in
registration since 2018 and record high turnout in the June 9
primary [PDF]
as signs they could "win big up and down the ballot."
Turnout was expected to be high in November, with two Senate
races and a couple of competitive House races on the ballot in
addition to the presidential contest.
After the primary, postponed to June 9, was marred by significant problems in two counties that forced voters in some precincts to wait in line for hours (+), there were concerns that similar problems could occur in the general election. A combination of preparation by election officials and pre-election litigation led to a generally smooth election process for the Nov. 3 election.
Although Democrats and their allies did a lot of work and turned out a diverse electorate, Republicans' difficulties in the 2020 cycle in Georgia stem in significant measure from divisions within the party. On Aug. 28, 2019, Sen. Johnny Isakson announced that he would resign at the end of the year due to health reasons. This gave Gov. Kemp the opportunity to appoint someone to fill the seat, who would then face election in 2020 and 2022. Many names were floated; President Trump backed U.S. Rep. Doug Collins from the 9th congressional district in northeast Georgia. However on Dec. 4, Kemp announced his selection of businesswomen Kelly Loeffler. Collins, who had support from many grassroots Republicans, went ahead and ran, one of twenty candidates competing in the special election nonpartisan blanket primary or "jungle primary" on Nov. 3, 2020. He finished third at 19.95% behind Rev. Raphael Warnock (D) at 32.90% and Loeffler second at 25.91%. Meanwhile, another Republican problem developed in the 14th congressional district in northwest Georgia, where Marjorie Taylor Greene, a QAnon supporter, scored an upset win in the Aug. 1 Republican primary runoff.
Georgia has a substantial African-American population; according to Census Bureau estimates, as of July 1, 2019, the population was 60.2% white, 32.6% Black or African-American, 9.9% Hispanic or Latino and 4.4% Asian. > In July 2020 Georgia lost one of its most illustrious leaders as U.S. Rep. John Lewis, the civil rights legend, died at 80. While the killing of George Floyd set off riots across the country, two killings of young Black men in Georgia also attracted national attention. On Feb. 23, three white men killed Ahmaud Arbery, 25 years old, in Satilla Shores near Brunswick. On June 13, police killed Rayshard Brooks, 27 years old, at a Wendy's in Atlanta.
Republicans built a very strong ground game in Georgia, but the principals and surrogates did not make as many visits as they did to other battleground states (which in hindsight suggests overconfidence). On the Democratic side, two Georgians figured in vice presidential speculation: 2018 gubernatorial nominee Abrams and Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms. Following her narrow loss in 2018, Abrams started Fair Fight/Fair Fight Action > in Aug. 2019; she was outspoken in her interest in the vice presidency. Mayor Bottoms (1, 2) was among those reported being vetted by Biden's team. After making no trips to the state in the early Fall, the Democratic candidates and surrogates started visiting in mid-October, although their events were small, socially distanced and very limited in attendance. Advertising in the presidential race in Georgia was not as intense as in many of the other battleground states. According to AdImpact, from May 1 to Nov. 3, 2020 Trump and allies spent twice as much on advertising as Biden and allies.
The presidential result was razor thin; AP did not call the state for Biden until Nov. 13. The Atlanta region came in huge for Biden. Further analyzing the results, Tom Bonier, CEO of TargetSmart, pointed to "the most diverse electorate in Georgia's history" and noted that, "The biggest surges in turnout came from voters of color, and younger voters."
The canvass of results was followed by an audit-triggered hand recount. On Nov. 20 Gov. Kemp certified the results, showing Biden with a margin of 12,670 votes (0.25 percentage points). The Trump campaign requested a formal recount; those results, announced Dec. 7, put the margin at 11, 779 votes (0.24 percentage points), confirming Biden as the winner. However, Trump, his campaign and allies, including crackpot attorneys Sidney Powell and Lin Wood, pushed their case on into January. In addition to legal maneuvering, Trump belittled his former ally Gov. Brian Kemp (R) and pressured Secretary of State Brian Raffensperger in an unbelievable Jan. 2 telephone call.
Meanwhile, the Nov. 3 voting had left unfinished business as both U.S. Senate race went to runoffs. An immense amount of money and resources poured into the two runoff races. Control of the U.S. Senate was at stake; if Democrats were to win both seats, there would be a 50-50 tie in the Senate. Such a result seemed highly improbable. However, President Trump's self-centered two-month long post-election meltdown divided Republicans, while Democrats built on their November 3 success. On Jan. 5 both Warnock and Ossoff prevailed, putting an unexpected exclamation mark on the 2020 cycle.
A Tale of Two Elections: 2016 and 2020
Does not include write-ins.
See also:
James C. Cobb. "Why a key Georgia county flipped from red to blue—and what it means for Democrats." Fortune, Dec. 27, 2020.
Stacey Abrams. "How Georgia Went Blue." Democracy Docket, Dec. 11, 2020.
David Weigel. "How votes shifted in the six political states of Georgia." Washington Post, Dec. 8, 2020.
Tom Bonier. "How Georgia Turned Blue." TargetSmart, Nov. 17, 2020.
Tamar Hallerman and Greg Bluestein. "How Biden ended Georgia's 24-year Republican streak." Atlanta Journal-Constitution, Nov. 13, 2020.
Brian Slodysko. "EXPLAINER: Why AP Called Georgia for Biden." AP, Nov. 13, 2020.
Kevin Schaul, Harry Stevens and Dan Keating. "How Georgia became a swing state for the first time in decades." Washington Post, Nov. 8, 2020.
Greg Bluestein. "Inside Trump's Georgia ground operation." Atlanta Journal-Constitution, July 23, 2020.
Astead W. Herndon. "'The Future is Blue, Not Purple': Is This the Year Georgia Flips?" New York Times, June 9, 2020.
Greg Bluestein. "Inside how Kemp picked Loeffler for the U.S. Senate." Atlanta Journal-Constitution, Dec. 9, 2019.
Examples of activity by the campaigns, parties and allied groups: D, allies | R, allies.
POST-ELECTION.
Georgia Surprises...Twice
The Republican presidential ticket has carried Georgia every
election since 1996, but that changed in 2020 as the
Biden-Harris ticket eked out its closest win in any
state. Democrats came close in 2018 when Brian Kemp (R)
defeated Stacey Abrams (D) in the race for governor
by 50.22% to 48.83%. Democrats pointed to increases in
registration since 2018 and record high turnout in the June 9
primary [PDF]
as signs they could "win big up and down the ballot."
Turnout was expected to be high in November, with two Senate
races and a couple of competitive House races on the ballot in
addition to the presidential contest. After the primary, postponed to June 9, was marred by significant problems in two counties that forced voters in some precincts to wait in line for hours (+), there were concerns that similar problems could occur in the general election. A combination of preparation by election officials and pre-election litigation led to a generally smooth election process for the Nov. 3 election.
Although Democrats and their allies did a lot of work and turned out a diverse electorate, Republicans' difficulties in the 2020 cycle in Georgia stem in significant measure from divisions within the party. On Aug. 28, 2019, Sen. Johnny Isakson announced that he would resign at the end of the year due to health reasons. This gave Gov. Kemp the opportunity to appoint someone to fill the seat, who would then face election in 2020 and 2022. Many names were floated; President Trump backed U.S. Rep. Doug Collins from the 9th congressional district in northeast Georgia. However on Dec. 4, Kemp announced his selection of businesswomen Kelly Loeffler. Collins, who had support from many grassroots Republicans, went ahead and ran, one of twenty candidates competing in the special election nonpartisan blanket primary or "jungle primary" on Nov. 3, 2020. He finished third at 19.95% behind Rev. Raphael Warnock (D) at 32.90% and Loeffler second at 25.91%. Meanwhile, another Republican problem developed in the 14th congressional district in northwest Georgia, where Marjorie Taylor Greene, a QAnon supporter, scored an upset win in the Aug. 1 Republican primary runoff.
Georgia has a substantial African-American population; according to Census Bureau estimates, as of July 1, 2019, the population was 60.2% white, 32.6% Black or African-American, 9.9% Hispanic or Latino and 4.4% Asian. > In July 2020 Georgia lost one of its most illustrious leaders as U.S. Rep. John Lewis, the civil rights legend, died at 80. While the killing of George Floyd set off riots across the country, two killings of young Black men in Georgia also attracted national attention. On Feb. 23, three white men killed Ahmaud Arbery, 25 years old, in Satilla Shores near Brunswick. On June 13, police killed Rayshard Brooks, 27 years old, at a Wendy's in Atlanta.
Republicans built a very strong ground game in Georgia, but the principals and surrogates did not make as many visits as they did to other battleground states (which in hindsight suggests overconfidence). On the Democratic side, two Georgians figured in vice presidential speculation: 2018 gubernatorial nominee Abrams and Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms. Following her narrow loss in 2018, Abrams started Fair Fight/Fair Fight Action > in Aug. 2019; she was outspoken in her interest in the vice presidency. Mayor Bottoms (1, 2) was among those reported being vetted by Biden's team. After making no trips to the state in the early Fall, the Democratic candidates and surrogates started visiting in mid-October, although their events were small, socially distanced and very limited in attendance. Advertising in the presidential race in Georgia was not as intense as in many of the other battleground states. According to AdImpact, from May 1 to Nov. 3, 2020 Trump and allies spent twice as much on advertising as Biden and allies.
The presidential result was razor thin; AP did not call the state for Biden until Nov. 13. The Atlanta region came in huge for Biden. Further analyzing the results, Tom Bonier, CEO of TargetSmart, pointed to "the most diverse electorate in Georgia's history" and noted that, "The biggest surges in turnout came from voters of color, and younger voters."
The canvass of results was followed by an audit-triggered hand recount. On Nov. 20 Gov. Kemp certified the results, showing Biden with a margin of 12,670 votes (0.25 percentage points). The Trump campaign requested a formal recount; those results, announced Dec. 7, put the margin at 11, 779 votes (0.24 percentage points), confirming Biden as the winner. However, Trump, his campaign and allies, including crackpot attorneys Sidney Powell and Lin Wood, pushed their case on into January. In addition to legal maneuvering, Trump belittled his former ally Gov. Brian Kemp (R) and pressured Secretary of State Brian Raffensperger in an unbelievable Jan. 2 telephone call.
Meanwhile, the Nov. 3 voting had left unfinished business as both U.S. Senate race went to runoffs. An immense amount of money and resources poured into the two runoff races. Control of the U.S. Senate was at stake; if Democrats were to win both seats, there would be a 50-50 tie in the Senate. Such a result seemed highly improbable. However, President Trump's self-centered two-month long post-election meltdown divided Republicans, while Democrats built on their November 3 success. On Jan. 5 both Warnock and Ossoff prevailed, putting an unexpected exclamation mark on the 2020 cycle.
A Tale of Two Elections: 2016 and 2020
| 2016 |
2020 |
[recount] |
|||||||||
| Clinton |
Trump |
Johnson |
Total |
Margin |
Biden |
Trump |
Jorgensen |
Total
|
Margin |
||
| Statewide |
1,877,963 (45.89) |
2,089,104 (51.05) |
125,306 (3.06) |
4,092,373 |
211,141 (5.16) |
2,473,633 (49.50) |
2,461,854 (49.26) |
62,229 (1.25) |
4,997,716 |
11,779 (0.24) |
Atlanta Metro Area
The Atlanta metro area came in big
for Biden. The10-county Atlanta region
> has
a population of 4.5 million. Biden improved on
Clinton's margins in all ten counties.
| 2016 |
2020 | [recount] | |||||||||
| Clinton |
Trump |
Johnson |
Total |
Margin |
Biden |
Trump |
Jorg. |
Total
|
Margin |
||
| Cherokee |
25,231 (22.75) |
80,649 (72.73) |
5,015 (4.52) |
110,895 |
55,418 (49.97) |
42,779 (29.54) |
99,585 (68.77) |
2,451 (1.69) |
144,815 |
56,806 (39.23) |
|
| Clayton |
78,220 (84.55) |
12,645 (13.67) |
1,647 (1.78) |
92,512 |
65,575 (70.88) |
95,466 (84.99) |
15,811 (14.08) |
1,053 (0.94) |
112,330 |
79,665 (70.91) |
|
| Cobb |
160,121 (48.89) |
152,912 (46.69) |
14,466 (4.42) |
327,499 |
7,209 (2.20) |
221,847 (56.35) |
165,436 (42.02) |
6,445 (1.64) |
393,728 |
56,411 (14.33) |
|
| DeKalb |
251,370 (80.44) |
51,468 (16.47) |
9,666 (3.09) |
312,504 |
199,902 (63.97) |
308,162 (83.12) |
58,377 (15.75) |
4,207 (1.13) |
370,746 |
249,785 (67.37) |
|
| Douglas |
31,005 (54.00) |
24,817 (43.22) |
1,594 (2.78) |
57,416 |
6,188 (10.78) |
42,814 (61.95) |
25,454 (36.83) |
838 (1.21) |
69,106 |
17,360 (25.12) |
|
| Fayette |
23,284 (38.53) |
35,048 (57.99) |
2,103 (3.48) |
60,435 |
11,764 (19.47) |
33,062 (45.92) |
37,956 (52.72) |
976 (1.36) |
71,994 |
4,894 (6.80) |
|
| Fulton |
297,051 (68.99) |
117,783 (27.35) |
15,765 (3.66) |
430,599 |
179,268 (41.63) |
380,212 (72.59) |
137,247 (26.20) |
6,320 (1.21) |
523,779 |
242,965 (46.39) |
|
| Gwinnett |
166,153 (51.02) |
146,989 (45.14) |
12,494 (3.84) |
325,636 |
19,164 (5.89) |
241,994 (58.45) |
166,400 (40.19) |
5,629 (1.36) |
414,023 |
75,594 (18.26) |
|
| Henry |
50,057 (50.93) |
45,724 (46.52) |
2,505 (2.55) |
98,286 |
4,333 (4.41) |
73,443 (59.71) |
48,259 (39.24) |
1,296 (1.05) |
122,998 |
25,184 (20.48) |
|
| Rockdale |
23,255 (61.76) |
13,478 (35.79 |
923 (2.45) |
37,656 |
9,777 (25.96) |
31,237 (69.91) |
13,014 (29.13) |
430 (0.96) |
44,681 |
18,223 (40.78) |
|
| Total |
1,105,747 (59.66) |
681,513 (36.77) |
66,178 (3.57) |
1,853,438 |
424,234 (22.89) |
1,471,016 (64.85) |
29,645 (1.31) |
2,268,200 |
703,487 (31.02) |
See also:
James C. Cobb. "Why a key Georgia county flipped from red to blue—and what it means for Democrats." Fortune, Dec. 27, 2020.
Stacey Abrams. "How Georgia Went Blue." Democracy Docket, Dec. 11, 2020.
David Weigel. "How votes shifted in the six political states of Georgia." Washington Post, Dec. 8, 2020.
Tom Bonier. "How Georgia Turned Blue." TargetSmart, Nov. 17, 2020.
Tamar Hallerman and Greg Bluestein. "How Biden ended Georgia's 24-year Republican streak." Atlanta Journal-Constitution, Nov. 13, 2020.
Brian Slodysko. "EXPLAINER: Why AP Called Georgia for Biden." AP, Nov. 13, 2020.
Kevin Schaul, Harry Stevens and Dan Keating. "How Georgia became a swing state for the first time in decades." Washington Post, Nov. 8, 2020.
Greg Bluestein. "Inside Trump's Georgia ground operation." Atlanta Journal-Constitution, July 23, 2020.
Astead W. Herndon. "'The Future is Blue, Not Purple': Is This the Year Georgia Flips?" New York Times, June 9, 2020.
Greg Bluestein. "Inside how Kemp picked Loeffler for the U.S. Senate." Atlanta Journal-Constitution, Dec. 9, 2019.
 |
 |
Oct. 20, 2020 - Trump sign and cotton field in Oconee Co., GA.
Someone scratched the f-word in the upper right corner.
| Copyright © 2020 Eric M. Appleman/Democracy in Action. |
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