| FLORIDA | 29 Electoral Votes |
 |
Organization: Biden
| Trump
||
General
Election Visits || Advertising.
Examples of activity by the campaigns, parties and allied groups: D, allies | R, allies.
Florida Holds for Trump
The Sunshine State has seen its share of very close contests
in recent years. The 2018 races for governor
and U.S.
Senate were both decided by less than half a percentage
point. In 2016 Trump won by 1.20 percentage points, in
2012 Obama won by 0.88 percentage points, and of course the
2000 election here made history. In 2020 Florida was
again a contested battleground state. When the votes
were tallied, Trump increased his share of the vote from
49.02% in 2016 to 51.21% in 2020, and his margin from the1.20
percentage points in 2016 to 3.36 percentage points in
2020. Biden meanwhile obtained almost exactly the same
share of the vote as Clinton had in 2016. Most notable
were Trump's large gains in Miami-Dade Co. Analysts
attribute Trump's gains to his anti-communist and
anti-socialist message which played well with Cuban Americans
and Latinos from dictatorial countries as Venezuela and
Nicaragua. The strength extended down ballot as
Republicans also picked up two U.S. House seats in south
Florida.
Florida was seen as a must win state for Trump. Veteran Democratic strategist Steve Schale observed in a Nov. 2 blog post, "[I]f he wins Florida, the map gives him a chance to win Pennsylvania and get re-elected. If he doesn't win Florida, it is over. As President Obama said the other day in Miami, if Biden wins, we can all go to bed early." In the latter part of 2019, Trump, a lifetime New Yorker, made Florida his home state, claiming Mar-a-Lago as his legal residence for voting purposes (>). Trump launched his campaign with a rally in Orlando on June 18, 2019. Further signalling Florida's importance, after plans for the convention in Charlotte fell through due to COVID restrictions, the RNC announced, on June 11, 2020, Jacksonville would be the site of Trump's convention acceptance speech celebration. The plan had a sense of unreality about it from the beginning, and six weeks later, amid a spike in COVID, cases, Trump pulled the plug on the Jacksonville component.
The Trump campaign was fully engaged on the ground. On July 11 Florida Trump Victory announced its team had achieved 10 million voter contacts. By late October they had knocked on 3.5 million doors. The principals and top surrogates plied the state with visits. Supporters organized car and boat parades. By the close of voter registration in October, Florida Republicans reported they had narrowed the voter registration gap versus Democrats to the smallest in history, less than 1-percent at 36.72% to 35.79%.
Change in Voter Registration
Book Closing for the Aug. 18 primary and the Nov. 3 general election
Trump also took policy actions aimed at winning support. At an environmental event in Jupiter on Sept. 8, Trump signed a presidential memorandum withdrawing areas from offshore oil exploration, development or production. On Sept. 18 he announced billions in aid to Puerto Rico, which he had earlier opposed. In Sept. 20 following the death of U.S. Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, federal judge Barbara Lagoa, a Cuban American from Hialeah, was floated as a top contender to be nominated by Trump (>).
On the Democratic side, U.S. Rep. Val Demings (FL-10), a former Orlando police chief, featured in many VP speculation stories in May and June 2020. State Democrats pointed to some impressive numbers, including, as of June 2020, 241 staff and nearly 20,000 volunteers. As of July 13 they claimed a 423,379 voter vote-by-mail enrollment advantage over Republicans. As in other states the Biden campaign remained largely in virtual mode; Biden made his first general election trip here on Sept. 15. All of the campaign's events had very, very limited attendance and strictly followed social distancing, exemplified by the drive in car rallies in unpublicized locations. Former President Barack Obama did three events for Biden in the closing ten days of the campaign. In September former NYC Mayor Mike Bloomberg decided to concentrate his efforts on Florida, planning to spend $100 million to tip the state to Biden.
A Sept. 9, 2020 report by WalletHub found Florida is the eighth most diverse state in the United States (>). Miami is well known for its Cuban American and Haitian American communities. There are many Black communities scattered around the state; Miami Gardens is the largest majority Black city in the state (>). Florida has a large Puerto Rican population, particularly in the Orlando metro area. South Florida has a large Jewish population (>). Florida has the second highest retirement age population of the 50 states; over 20% of the population is 65 or older (>). According to the Florida Department of Veterans' Affairs, Florida has the third largest veterans population of any state, over 1.5 million, behind California and Texas (>). In addition there are about 1.4 million ex-felons / returning citizens whose voting rights have been at stake following passage of Amendment 4 in Nov. 2018 and subsequent legislation and litigation (+). On top of the demographic diversity, Florida has geographic diversity, stretching from the Alabama border to Key West and the southernmost point in the continental U.S.; the state has the second longest coastline after Alaska (>). Florida has 10 media markets to consider: Mobile-Pensacola; Panama City; Tallahassee-Thomasville; Jacksonville-Brunswick; Gainesville; Tampa-St. Petersburg-Sarasota; Fort Myers-Naples; Orlando-Daytona Beach-Melbourne; West Palm Beach-Ft. Pierce; and Miami-Ft. Lauderdale.
All of this is to say that it is a big challenge for a campaign to reach the state's 14.4 million registered voters. According to AdImpact, Florida was the top state for spending on advertising by the presidential campaigns and their allies, totaling $341.2 million from May 1 to Nov. 3, 2020. Biden and allies outspent Trump and allies by $99.0 million more (81.8% more). The Orlando and Tampa markets saw the most spending.
A Tale of Two Elections: 2016 and 2020
Statewide
Miami-Dade
Accounted for 10.41% of the vote in 2016 and10.45% of the vote in 2020.
Central Florida (Orlando Media Market)
The Orlando Media Market includes the eastern part of the famous I-4 Corridor. Per Wikipedia it is the 17th biggest media market in the U.S. with more than 1.7 million TV households. The 3 urban Orlando counties accounted for 911,377 votes or 9.67% of the statewide vote in 2016 and 1,080,654 votes or 9.76% of the statewide vote in 2020. Looking at these three counties, the results were fairly similar in 2016 and 2020. Trump chipped away slightly at the Democratic margin; Biden picked up Seminole Co., but Trump improved up on his showing in Osceola Co. The 6 ex-urban Orlando counties accounted for 1,054,951 votes or 11.20% of the statewide vote in 2016 and 1,240,094 votes or 11.20% of the vote in 2020. The results in these six counties were fairly similar as well.
Notes: Volusia Co. includes
Daytona Beach. Bevard Co. includes Melbourne.
Sumter Co.i is best known for The Villages
retirement community. According to Wikipedia, Sumter
Co.
"has
the oldest median age of any US county and the highest
percentage of residents aged 65 and older—at 55.6% in
2014-2018."
See also:
steveschale.com posts from Oct.-Nov. 2020. [Schale, a veteran Democratic operative, served as Florida state director of Barack Obama's 2008 campaign and in 2020 was CEO of the pro-Biden super PAC Unite the Country. The granular detail and clarity of his posts offer invaluable insights on Florida politics].
Stephania Taladrid. "As Trump Gained Support in Florida, Biden's Campaign Ignored Warnings." New Yorker, Nov. 10, 2020.
Carmen Sesin. "Trump cultivated the Latino vote in Florida, and it paid off." NBC News, Nov. 3, 2020.
Nicole Goodkind. "Trump won Florida, but Democrats say they spent $100 million there to distract him from the Midwest." Fortune, Nov. 3, 2020.
Marc Caputo. "The 2 big bets that will decide Florida." Politico, Nov. 2, 2020.
Tara Copp. "Military absentee ballots may be critical to 2020 election: 1 in 5 went to Florida." Miami Herald, Oct. 28, 2020.
Michael Wilner, David Smiley, Karina Elwood, TNS. "For Biden, Jewish voter turnout is key in Florida as race tightens." Jerusalem Post, Oct. 25, 2020.
Luis Noe-Bustamante. "Latinos make up record 17% of Florida registered voters in 2020." Pew Research Center, Oct. 19, 2020.
Gary Fineout. "A TV ad tidal wave in Florida: Nearly $250M and counting." Politico, Oct. 1, 2020.
David Smiley. "'Joe Biden has no ground game in Florida." Will Mike Bloomberg's money change that?" Miami Herald, Sept. 24, 2020.
Ingrid Cotto and Adelaide Chen. "Puerto Rican population in metro Orlando dips back to pre-Hurricane Maria levels," Orlando Sentinel, Sept. 21, 2020.
Michael Scherer. "Mike Bloomberg to spend at least $100 million in Florida to benefit Joe Biden." Washington Post, Sept. 13, 2020.
Marc Caputo. "There are promising signs everywhere. Yet Florida Democrats remain terrified." Politico, Sept. 8, 2020.
David Weigel. "The six political states of Florida." Washington Post, Sept. 8, 2020.
Examples of activity by the campaigns, parties and allied groups: D, allies | R, allies.
Florida Holds for Trump
The Sunshine State has seen its share of very close contests
in recent years. The 2018 races for governor
and U.S.
Senate were both decided by less than half a percentage
point. In 2016 Trump won by 1.20 percentage points, in
2012 Obama won by 0.88 percentage points, and of course the
2000 election here made history. In 2020 Florida was
again a contested battleground state. When the votes
were tallied, Trump increased his share of the vote from
49.02% in 2016 to 51.21% in 2020, and his margin from the1.20
percentage points in 2016 to 3.36 percentage points in
2020. Biden meanwhile obtained almost exactly the same
share of the vote as Clinton had in 2016. Most notable
were Trump's large gains in Miami-Dade Co. Analysts
attribute Trump's gains to his anti-communist and
anti-socialist message which played well with Cuban Americans
and Latinos from dictatorial countries as Venezuela and
Nicaragua. The strength extended down ballot as
Republicans also picked up two U.S. House seats in south
Florida. Florida was seen as a must win state for Trump. Veteran Democratic strategist Steve Schale observed in a Nov. 2 blog post, "[I]f he wins Florida, the map gives him a chance to win Pennsylvania and get re-elected. If he doesn't win Florida, it is over. As President Obama said the other day in Miami, if Biden wins, we can all go to bed early." In the latter part of 2019, Trump, a lifetime New Yorker, made Florida his home state, claiming Mar-a-Lago as his legal residence for voting purposes (>). Trump launched his campaign with a rally in Orlando on June 18, 2019. Further signalling Florida's importance, after plans for the convention in Charlotte fell through due to COVID restrictions, the RNC announced, on June 11, 2020, Jacksonville would be the site of Trump's convention acceptance speech celebration. The plan had a sense of unreality about it from the beginning, and six weeks later, amid a spike in COVID, cases, Trump pulled the plug on the Jacksonville component.
The Trump campaign was fully engaged on the ground. On July 11 Florida Trump Victory announced its team had achieved 10 million voter contacts. By late October they had knocked on 3.5 million doors. The principals and top surrogates plied the state with visits. Supporters organized car and boat parades. By the close of voter registration in October, Florida Republicans reported they had narrowed the voter registration gap versus Democrats to the smallest in history, less than 1-percent at 36.72% to 35.79%.
Change in Voter Registration
Book Closing for the Aug. 18 primary and the Nov. 3 general election
| July
20 |
Oct.
6 |
Change# 7/20-10/6 |
|
| Dem |
5,167,930 37.20% |
5,303,254 36.72% |
135,324 +2.6% |
| Rep. |
4,927,507 35.47% |
5,169,012 35.79% |
241,505 +6.7% |
| NPA |
3,622,236 26.08% |
3,753,286 25.99% |
131,050 +3.6% |
| Tot. |
13,891,370 |
14,441,869 |
550,499 |
Trump also took policy actions aimed at winning support. At an environmental event in Jupiter on Sept. 8, Trump signed a presidential memorandum withdrawing areas from offshore oil exploration, development or production. On Sept. 18 he announced billions in aid to Puerto Rico, which he had earlier opposed. In Sept. 20 following the death of U.S. Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, federal judge Barbara Lagoa, a Cuban American from Hialeah, was floated as a top contender to be nominated by Trump (>).
On the Democratic side, U.S. Rep. Val Demings (FL-10), a former Orlando police chief, featured in many VP speculation stories in May and June 2020. State Democrats pointed to some impressive numbers, including, as of June 2020, 241 staff and nearly 20,000 volunteers. As of July 13 they claimed a 423,379 voter vote-by-mail enrollment advantage over Republicans. As in other states the Biden campaign remained largely in virtual mode; Biden made his first general election trip here on Sept. 15. All of the campaign's events had very, very limited attendance and strictly followed social distancing, exemplified by the drive in car rallies in unpublicized locations. Former President Barack Obama did three events for Biden in the closing ten days of the campaign. In September former NYC Mayor Mike Bloomberg decided to concentrate his efforts on Florida, planning to spend $100 million to tip the state to Biden.
A Sept. 9, 2020 report by WalletHub found Florida is the eighth most diverse state in the United States (>). Miami is well known for its Cuban American and Haitian American communities. There are many Black communities scattered around the state; Miami Gardens is the largest majority Black city in the state (>). Florida has a large Puerto Rican population, particularly in the Orlando metro area. South Florida has a large Jewish population (>). Florida has the second highest retirement age population of the 50 states; over 20% of the population is 65 or older (>). According to the Florida Department of Veterans' Affairs, Florida has the third largest veterans population of any state, over 1.5 million, behind California and Texas (>). In addition there are about 1.4 million ex-felons / returning citizens whose voting rights have been at stake following passage of Amendment 4 in Nov. 2018 and subsequent legislation and litigation (+). On top of the demographic diversity, Florida has geographic diversity, stretching from the Alabama border to Key West and the southernmost point in the continental U.S.; the state has the second longest coastline after Alaska (>). Florida has 10 media markets to consider: Mobile-Pensacola; Panama City; Tallahassee-Thomasville; Jacksonville-Brunswick; Gainesville; Tampa-St. Petersburg-Sarasota; Fort Myers-Naples; Orlando-Daytona Beach-Melbourne; West Palm Beach-Ft. Pierce; and Miami-Ft. Lauderdale.
All of this is to say that it is a big challenge for a campaign to reach the state's 14.4 million registered voters. According to AdImpact, Florida was the top state for spending on advertising by the presidential campaigns and their allies, totaling $341.2 million from May 1 to Nov. 3, 2020. Biden and allies outspent Trump and allies by $99.0 million more (81.8% more). The Orlando and Tampa markets saw the most spending.
A Tale of Two Elections: 2016 and 2020
Statewide
| 2016 | 2020 | ||||||||||
| Clinton |
Trump |
Others |
Total |
Margin |
Biden |
Trump |
Others |
Total
|
Margin |
||
| Statewide | 4,504,975 (47.82) |
4,617,886 (49.02) |
297,178 (3.15) |
9,420,039 | 112,911 (1.20) |
5,297,045 (47.85) |
5,668731 (51.21) |
103,680 (0.94) |
11,069,456 | 371,686 (3.36) |
Miami-Dade
Accounted for 10.41% of the vote in 2016 and10.45% of the vote in 2020.
| 2016 | 2020 | ||||||||||
| Clinton |
Trump |
Others |
Total |
Margin |
Biden |
Trump |
Others |
Total
|
Margin |
||
| Miami-Dade | 624,146 (63.68) |
333,999 (34.07) |
22,059 (2.25) |
980,204 |
290,147 (29.60) |
617,864 (53.41) |
532,833 (46.06) |
6,119 (0.53) |
1,156,816 |
85,031 (7.35) |
Central Florida (Orlando Media Market)
The Orlando Media Market includes the eastern part of the famous I-4 Corridor. Per Wikipedia it is the 17th biggest media market in the U.S. with more than 1.7 million TV households. The 3 urban Orlando counties accounted for 911,377 votes or 9.67% of the statewide vote in 2016 and 1,080,654 votes or 9.76% of the statewide vote in 2020. Looking at these three counties, the results were fairly similar in 2016 and 2020. Trump chipped away slightly at the Democratic margin; Biden picked up Seminole Co., but Trump improved up on his showing in Osceola Co. The 6 ex-urban Orlando counties accounted for 1,054,951 votes or 11.20% of the statewide vote in 2016 and 1,240,094 votes or 11.20% of the vote in 2020. The results in these six counties were fairly similar as well.
| 2016 | 2020 | ||||||||||
| URBAN
|
Clinton |
Trump |
Others |
Total |
Margin |
Biden |
Trump |
Others |
Total
|
Margin |
|
| Orange Orlando |
329,894 (60.39) |
195,216 (35.74) |
21,165 (3.87) |
546,275 |
134,678 (24.65) |
395,014 (61.02) |
245,398 (37.90) |
6,991 (1.08) |
647,403 |
149,616 (23.11) |
|
| Osceola Kissimmee |
85,458 (60.95) |
50,301 (35.88) |
4,447 (3.17) |
140,206 |
35,157 (25.08) |
97,297 (56.42) |
73,480 (42.61) |
1,659 (0.96) |
172,436 |
23,817 (13.81) |
|
| Seminole Sanford |
105,914 (47.09) |
109,443 (48.66) |
9,539 (4.24) |
224,896 |
3,529 (1.57) |
132,528 (50.81) |
125,241 (48.02) |
3,046 (1.17) |
260,815 |
7,287 (2.79) |
|
| SUBTOTAL |
911,377 |
166,306 (18.25) |
1,080,654 |
180,720 (16.72) |
|||||||
| EX-URBAN | |||||||||||
| Sumter Bushnell |
22,638 (29.53) |
52,730 (68.78) |
1,297 (1.69) |
76,665 |
30,092 (39.25) |
29,341 (31.73) |
62,761 (67.86) |
383 (0.41) |
92,485 |
33,420 (36.13) |
|
| Marion Ocala |
62,041 (35.51) |
107,833 (61.72) |
4,826 (2.76) |
174,700 |
45,729 (26.21) |
74,858 (36.63) |
127,826 (62.54) |
1,692 (0.83) |
204,376 |
52,968 (25.92) |
|
| Lake Tavares |
62,838 (36.86) |
102,188 (59.95) |
5,426 (3.18) |
170,462 |
30,350 (23.08) |
83,505 (39.52) |
125,859 (59.56) |
1,950 (0.92) |
211,314 |
42,354 (20.04) |
|
| Flagler Bunnell |
22,026 (38.30) |
33,850 (58.87) |
1,627 (2.83) |
57,503 |
11,824 (20.56) |
28,161 (39.27) |
43,043 (60.02) |
512 (0.71) |
71,716 |
14,882 (20.75) |
|
| Volusia DeLand |
109,091 (41.82) |
143,007 (54.82) |
8,771 (3.36) |
260,869 |
33,916 (13.00) |
130,575 (42.47) |
173,821 (56.54) |
3,043 (0.99) |
307,439 |
43,246 (14.07) |
|
| Brevard Titusville |
119,679 (38.02) |
181,848 (57.77) |
13,225 (4.20) |
314,752 |
62,169 (19.75) |
148,549 (41.18) |
207,883 (57.62) |
4,332 (1.20) |
360,764 |
59,334 (16.45) |
|
| SUBTOTAL |
1,054,951 |
214,080 (20.29) |
1,240,094 |
246,204 (19.85) |
See also:
steveschale.com posts from Oct.-Nov. 2020. [Schale, a veteran Democratic operative, served as Florida state director of Barack Obama's 2008 campaign and in 2020 was CEO of the pro-Biden super PAC Unite the Country. The granular detail and clarity of his posts offer invaluable insights on Florida politics].
Stephania Taladrid. "As Trump Gained Support in Florida, Biden's Campaign Ignored Warnings." New Yorker, Nov. 10, 2020.
Carmen Sesin. "Trump cultivated the Latino vote in Florida, and it paid off." NBC News, Nov. 3, 2020.
Nicole Goodkind. "Trump won Florida, but Democrats say they spent $100 million there to distract him from the Midwest." Fortune, Nov. 3, 2020.
Marc Caputo. "The 2 big bets that will decide Florida." Politico, Nov. 2, 2020.
Tara Copp. "Military absentee ballots may be critical to 2020 election: 1 in 5 went to Florida." Miami Herald, Oct. 28, 2020.
Michael Wilner, David Smiley, Karina Elwood, TNS. "For Biden, Jewish voter turnout is key in Florida as race tightens." Jerusalem Post, Oct. 25, 2020.
Luis Noe-Bustamante. "Latinos make up record 17% of Florida registered voters in 2020." Pew Research Center, Oct. 19, 2020.
Gary Fineout. "A TV ad tidal wave in Florida: Nearly $250M and counting." Politico, Oct. 1, 2020.
David Smiley. "'Joe Biden has no ground game in Florida." Will Mike Bloomberg's money change that?" Miami Herald, Sept. 24, 2020.
Ingrid Cotto and Adelaide Chen. "Puerto Rican population in metro Orlando dips back to pre-Hurricane Maria levels," Orlando Sentinel, Sept. 21, 2020.
Michael Scherer. "Mike Bloomberg to spend at least $100 million in Florida to benefit Joe Biden." Washington Post, Sept. 13, 2020.
Marc Caputo. "There are promising signs everywhere. Yet Florida Democrats remain terrified." Politico, Sept. 8, 2020.
David Weigel. "The six political states of Florida." Washington Post, Sept. 8, 2020.
| Copyright © 2020 Eric M. Appleman/Democracy in Action. |
 |