| ARIZONA | 11 Electoral Votes |
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Organization: Biden
| Trump
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Visits
|| Advertising.
Examples of activity by the campaigns, parties and allied groups: D, allies | R, allies.
Photos: VP Mike Pence in Peoria on Oct. 8 | Billboards | More.
POST-ELECTION.
Arizona Continues Trending Democratic
Arizona swung 3.84 percentage points, going Democratic for the
first time since 1996, albeit narrowly. The trend toward
the Democrats in Arizona, and also in neighboring Nevada and
in Colorado, has been evident for some time. In 2018
U.S. Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D) defeated U.S. Rep. Martha McSally
(R) to pick up one of the Senate seats (+).
The 2020 election saw a very competitive race for the second
Senate seat as Mark Kelly (D) challenged McSally, the
appointed Senator. Key demographic groups in Arizona
include Hispanic or Latino, accounting for 31.7% of the
state's population, seniors (65 and older) 17.5%, and Native
Americans, 5.3%.
One sign that the state was in play in the presidential race came on June 19 when the state became the first for which the Biden campaign announced its general election leadership. In the Fall, the Trump campaign kept up a fairly steady stream of visits by the principals and surrogates, while the Biden campaign managed just a handful of visits. Democratic presidential candidates have in past made stops in Arizona and Las Vegas as part of fundraising trips to California; due to the pandemic the Biden-Harris team was not doing in-person fundraising, and this no doubt contributed to the paucity of visits. Trump typically tied together Arizona and Nevada stops and these trips provided an opportunity for him to stay overnight at one of his properties, the Trump International Hotel in Las Vegas. As in other states the Biden campaign and its allies had a big advantage over Trump and allies in advertising. According to AdImpact, of $140.1 million total spending on presidential advertising (TV, radio and digital) in Arizona, the Democratic side spent $82.3 million (58.8%) and the Republican side $57.7 million (41.2%). The presidential race was not the only one on the airwaves; according to the Center for Responsive Politics the McSally-Kelly race was the sixth most expensive Senate race of the 2020 cycle, tallying total spending of $255.7 million, much of which went into TV advertising. Gov. Doug Ducey had a close relationship with the White House, noting in a July 9 briefing that he had set his ringtone to "Hail to the Chief" to alert him when the White House was calling. Arizona Republican Party chair Kelli Ward was one of Trump's most outspoken supporters. Cindy McCain provided a key endorsement for Biden on Sept. 25.
Examples of activity by the campaigns, parties and allied groups: D, allies | R, allies.
Photos: VP Mike Pence in Peoria on Oct. 8 | Billboards | More.
POST-ELECTION.
Arizona Continues Trending Democratic
Arizona swung 3.84 percentage points, going Democratic for the
first time since 1996, albeit narrowly. The trend toward
the Democrats in Arizona, and also in neighboring Nevada and
in Colorado, has been evident for some time. In 2018
U.S. Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D) defeated U.S. Rep. Martha McSally
(R) to pick up one of the Senate seats (+).
The 2020 election saw a very competitive race for the second
Senate seat as Mark Kelly (D) challenged McSally, the
appointed Senator. Key demographic groups in Arizona
include Hispanic or Latino, accounting for 31.7% of the
state's population, seniors (65 and older) 17.5%, and Native
Americans, 5.3%.One sign that the state was in play in the presidential race came on June 19 when the state became the first for which the Biden campaign announced its general election leadership. In the Fall, the Trump campaign kept up a fairly steady stream of visits by the principals and surrogates, while the Biden campaign managed just a handful of visits. Democratic presidential candidates have in past made stops in Arizona and Las Vegas as part of fundraising trips to California; due to the pandemic the Biden-Harris team was not doing in-person fundraising, and this no doubt contributed to the paucity of visits. Trump typically tied together Arizona and Nevada stops and these trips provided an opportunity for him to stay overnight at one of his properties, the Trump International Hotel in Las Vegas. As in other states the Biden campaign and its allies had a big advantage over Trump and allies in advertising. According to AdImpact, of $140.1 million total spending on presidential advertising (TV, radio and digital) in Arizona, the Democratic side spent $82.3 million (58.8%) and the Republican side $57.7 million (41.2%). The presidential race was not the only one on the airwaves; according to the Center for Responsive Politics the McSally-Kelly race was the sixth most expensive Senate race of the 2020 cycle, tallying total spending of $255.7 million, much of which went into TV advertising. Gov. Doug Ducey had a close relationship with the White House, noting in a July 9 briefing that he had set his ringtone to "Hail to the Chief" to alert him when the White House was calling. Arizona Republican Party chair Kelli Ward was one of Trump's most outspoken supporters. Cindy McCain provided a key endorsement for Biden on Sept. 25.
FOX News and AP's early calls of race in Arizona came under
criticism from Trump supporters; FOX called the state for
Biden at 11:20 p.m. EST and AP at 2:50 a.m. EST Wednesday
(Nov. 4). Arizona was one of six states where the Trump
campaign and allies pursued post-election legal efforts.
Arizona Republican Party chair Kelli Ward was one of Trump's
most outspoken supporters. President Trump sought to
pressure Gov. Doug Ducey, but officials certified the results
on Nov. 30. The final tally showed Biden's winning
margin at 10,457 votes out of 3,387,324 cast or 0.30
percentage points. (In the Senate race, Kelly scored a
more comfortable win, besting McSally by 78,806 votes or 2.35
percentage points). The electors met on Dec. 14 and
formalized Biden's win. When Congress met in joint
session on Jan. 6, 2021 to certify the electoral votes,
members of the House and Senate were debating objections to
the Arizona electoral votes in their respective chambers when
the mob of Trump supporters forced them into recess.
A Tale of Two Elections: 2016 and 2020
All eyes were on Maricopa Co., which
includes Phoenix. Over two million votes were cast in
Maricopa Co. (+) accounting
for 61.09% of votes cast in the presidential race (compared
to 60.02% in 2016). Biden flipped the county, winning
by a margin of 45,109 votes (2.18 percentage points).
| 2016 |
2020, b |
||||||||||
| County |
Clinton |
Trump |
Others |
Total |
Margin |
Biden |
Trump |
Others |
Total
|
Margin |
|
| Apache |
17,083 (62.99) |
8,240 (30.38) |
1,796 (6.62) |
27,119 |
8,843 (32.61) |
23,293 (66.21) |
11,442 (32.52) |
448 (1.27) |
35,183 |
11,851 (33.68) |
|
| Cochise |
17,450 (35.34) |
28,092 (56.88) |
3,842 (7.78) |
49,384 |
10,642 (21.55) |
23,732 (39.24) |
35,557 (58.80) |
1,184 (1.96) |
60,473 |
11,825 (19.55) |
|
| Coconino |
32,404 (55.45) |
21,108 (36.12) |
4,928 (8.43) |
58,440 |
11,296 (19.33) |
44,698 (60.94) |
27,052 (36.88) |
1,596 (2.18) |
73,346 |
17,646 (24.06) |
|
| Gila |
7,003 (31.39) |
14,182 (63.56) |
1,127 (5.05) |
22,312 |
7,179 (32.18) |
8,943 (32.31) |
18,377 (66.40) |
358 (1.29) |
27,678 |
9,434 (34.08) |
|
| Graham |
3,301 (27.20) |
8,025 (66.14) |
808 (6.66) |
12,134 |
4,724 (38.93) |
4,034 (26.90) |
10,749 (71.68) |
213 (1.42) |
14,996 |
6,715 (44.78) |
|
| Greenlee |
1,092 (33.39) |
1,892 (57.86) |
286 (8.75) |
3,270 |
800 (24.46) |
1,182 (32.05) |
2,433 (65.97) |
73 (1.98) |
3,688 |
1,251 (33.92) |
|
| La Paz |
1,575 (26.80) |
4,003 (68.11) |
299 (5.09) |
5,877 |
2,428 (41.31) |
2,236 (29.97) |
5,129 (68.75) |
95 (1.27) |
7,460 |
2,893 (38.78) |
|
| Maricopa |
702,907 (45.38) |
747,361 (48.25) |
98,810 (6.38) |
1,549,078 |
44,454 (2.87) |
1,040,774 (50.29) |
995,665 (48.11) |
33,036 (1.60) |
2,069,475 |
45,109 (2.18) |
|
| Mohave |
17,455 (22.00) |
58,282 (73.45) |
3,609 (4.55) |
79,346 |
40,827 (51.45) |
24,831 (23.72) |
78,535 (75.01) |
1,339 (1.28) |
104,705 |
53,704 (51.29) |
|
| Navajo |
16,459 (41.51) |
20,577 (51.89) |
2,618 (6.60) |
39,654 |
4,118 (10.38) |
23,383 (45.16) |
27,657 (53.41) |
743 (1.43) |
51,783 |
4,274 (8.25) |
|
| Pima |
224,661 (55.96) |
167,428 (41.71) |
9,344 (2.33) |
401,433 |
57,233 (14.26) |
304,981 (58.57) |
207,758 (39.90) |
7,996 (1.54) |
520,735 |
97,223 (18.67) |
|
| Pinal |
47,892 (37.34) |
72,819 (56.78) |
7,543 (5.88) |
128,254 |
24,927 (19.44) |
75,106 (40.59) |
107,077 (57.87) |
2,854 (1.54) |
185,037 |
31,971 (17.28) |
|
| Santa Cruz |
11,690 (71.78)
|
3,897 (23.93) |
700 (4.30) |
16,287 |
7,793 (47.85) |
13,138 (67.16) |
6,194 (31.67) |
229 (1.17) |
19,561 |
6,944 (35.50) |
|
| Yavapai |
35,590 (31.45) |
71,330 (63.04) |
6,236 (2.86) |
113,156 |
35,740 (31.58) |
49,602 (34.40) |
91,527 (63.48) |
3,051 (2.12) |
144,180 |
41,925 (29.08) |
|
| Yuma |
24,605 (46.94) |
25,165 (48.26) |
2,646 (5.05) |
52,416 |
560 (1.07) |
32,210 (46.06) |
36,534 (52.25) |
1,182 (1.69) |
69,926 |
4,324 (6.18) |
|
| Statewide | 1,161,167 (45.13) |
1,252,401 (48.67) |
159,597 (6.20) |
2,573,165 |
91,234 (3.54) |
1,672,143 (49.36) |
1,661,686 (49.06) |
53,495 (1.58) |
3,387,324 |
10,457 (0.30) |
See also:
Delilah Friedler. "Indigenous Democrats Helped Flip Arizona, No Thanks to Party Leaders." Mother Jones, Nov. 18, 2020.
Annie Karni and Maggie Haberman. "Fox's Arizona Call for Biden Flipped the Mood at Trump Headquarters." New York Times, Nov. 4, 2020.
Brian Slodysko. "EXPLAINER: A Closer look at Arizona." AP, Nov. 4, 2020.
Laura Barrón-López. "'Arizona is clearly in play' for Biden." Politico, Nov. 2, 2020.
Stephanie Sy. "In final Arizona push, Trump and Biden court growing Latino business community." PBS NewsHour, Oct. 30, 2020.
Lauren Gambino and Maanvi Singh. "The Arizona county that could decide the future of Trump – and America." The Guardian, Oct. 27, 2020.
Nicole Narea. "The battle for Latino voters in Arizona and Florida, explained." Vox, Oct. 20, 2020.
Hank Stephenson. "How Mormons Fed Up With Trump Could Help Lift Biden in Arizona." New York Times, Oct. 18, 2020.
David Weigel. "The four political states of Arizona." Washington Post, Sept. 20, 2020.
John McCormack. "Battleground Arizona." National Review, Sept. 17, 2020.
Elaina Plott. "G.O.P. Women in Arizona Could Decide an Unexpected 2020 Battle." New York Times, Aug. 26, 2020.
Elaine Godfrey. "How to Lose a Swing State." The Atlantic, July 25, 2020.
Delilah Friedler. "Indigenous Democrats Helped Flip Arizona, No Thanks to Party Leaders." Mother Jones, Nov. 18, 2020.
Annie Karni and Maggie Haberman. "Fox's Arizona Call for Biden Flipped the Mood at Trump Headquarters." New York Times, Nov. 4, 2020.
Brian Slodysko. "EXPLAINER: A Closer look at Arizona." AP, Nov. 4, 2020.
Laura Barrón-López. "'Arizona is clearly in play' for Biden." Politico, Nov. 2, 2020.
Stephanie Sy. "In final Arizona push, Trump and Biden court growing Latino business community." PBS NewsHour, Oct. 30, 2020.
Lauren Gambino and Maanvi Singh. "The Arizona county that could decide the future of Trump – and America." The Guardian, Oct. 27, 2020.
Nicole Narea. "The battle for Latino voters in Arizona and Florida, explained." Vox, Oct. 20, 2020.
Hank Stephenson. "How Mormons Fed Up With Trump Could Help Lift Biden in Arizona." New York Times, Oct. 18, 2020.
David Weigel. "The four political states of Arizona." Washington Post, Sept. 20, 2020.
John McCormack. "Battleground Arizona." National Review, Sept. 17, 2020.
Elaina Plott. "G.O.P. Women in Arizona Could Decide an Unexpected 2020 Battle." New York Times, Aug. 26, 2020.
Elaine Godfrey. "How to Lose a Swing State." The Atlantic, July 25, 2020.
| Copyright © 2020 Eric M. Appleman/Democracy in Action. |
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