March 10, 2020 - Mini Super Tuesday

< March 3  |  March 10  |  March 17 >

434 Delegates (365 Pledged)
Summary
: Following the exits of Bloomberg and Warren after Super Tuesday, the race boiled down to Joe Biden versus Bernie Sanders (with Tulsi Gabbard as an asterisk).  The big prize of the day was Michigan.  Of the six states holding contests, Biden won five, continuing his seemingly inevitable path to the nomination.  Reactions

 DA  |  ID  |  MI  |  MS  |  MO  |  ND  |  WA

DEMOCRATS ABROAD GLOBAL PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (13 pledged delegates)

SANDERS
BIDEN
WARREN*
BLOOMBERG*
OTHERS (6)
UNCOMM.
TOTAL
23,139
(57.87%)
9,059
(22.66%)
5,730
(14.33%)
892
(2.23%)
1,116
(2.79%)
48
(0.12%)
39,984
Buttigieg 616 (1.54%), Klobuchar 224 (0.56%), Gabbard 146 (0.37%), Yang 85 (0.21%), Patrick 26 (0.07%), Steyer 19 (0.05%)
*Bloomberg suspended his campaign on Mar. 4 and Warren on Mar. 5, while voting was still occurring. 
Gabbard was still an active candidate at time of voting.

NOTES
The Democrats Abroad Global Presidential Primary ran from March 3-10 with remote voting by email, fax and mail and in-person voting at over 230 voting centers in 45 countries around the world.  Ballots were available from Feb. 18, and 6,632 votes or about 16.6% were cast early.

[ed. note: text below combines two posts at www.democratsabroad.org/news]
Democrats Abroad
March 23, 2020

Democrats Abroad, the official international arm of the Democratic party, today announced the verified results of the Global Presidential Primary:

Senator Bernie Sanders received 23,139 votes (57.9%), resulting in 9 delegates.
Vice President Joe Biden received 9,059 (22.7%), resulting in 4 delegates.

“Americans abroad have spoken, and they’ve done so in higher numbers than ever, despite the challenges of Covid-19,” said Julia Bryan, Global Chair of Democrats Abroad. “I’d like to congratulate all of our volunteers and leaders for helping voters participate - either remotely, or in voting centers, and I’d like to thank the voters in 180 countries who cast their ballot in our largest-ever Global Presidential Primary.”

This is the highest turnout that Democrats Abroad has seen in a Presidential primary, up more than 15% from 2016. Sanders also received the most votes in the 2016 primary against Hillary Clinton (23,779 votes to 10,689, respectively).

“Americans abroad are consistently a very blue voting bloc, and the turnout we’ve seen during the primary, as well as in voter turnout of general elections in 2016 and 2018, reflect that. Our voters believe in affordable healthcare and education, and a government that looks after its people -- both those citizens at home and abroad,” added Amanda Mohar, Communications Director. “When it comes to our 2020 efforts, the focus now turns to readying the thousands and thousands of other blue voters around the world to request, receive and return their ballot for the general elections.”

The results of the primary determine the number of delegates that each presidential candidate will receive from Democrats Abroad at the Democratic National Convention this July - thus helping determine the Democratic presidential nominee for the 2020 elections. Democrats Abroad sends 21 delegates to the Convention, 13 of which are pledged delegates.

All Americans residing outside the United States may run for a convention delegate position, provided they are 18 or older by November 3, 2020, are Democrats Abroad members and do not participate in any other US presidential primary this year. The submission form to become a delegate will be available at democratsabroad.org beginning March 24.

Additional Stats:

  • Voters in 180 countries successfully cast their ballots.

  • Voters in the EMEA region cast more ballots (25,762) than those in the Americas (7,959) and Asia Pacific (6,263).

  • Countries with the highest total turnout included UK (5,689), Germany (5,268), Canada (4,691), France (3,017) and Mexico (1,504).

  • The UK saw the most votes cast remotely, at 3,965.

  • Germany saw the most in-person votes cast, at 2,741.

  • Country committees in Argentina, Ecuador, Finland and Romania held their first-ever in-person voting centers.

 VOTING IN-PERSON VS. REMOTE

While turnout this year was bolstered by Democrats Abroad's more than 230 voting centers worldwide, most voters participated remotely.

Voted by Email, Fax, and Post:  25,442; 63.63%
Voted In-Person: 14,542; 36.37%

Lots of voters were eager to cast their ballot! In total, 6,632 were cast early, before Super Tuesday. Democrats Abroad could vote from home as early as Feb 18, and return their ballot via fax, email or postal mail.

 VOTING AGE

Estimates indicate that voters skewed on the younger side, with around half of all votes cast by voters under 40.

Under 20: 1,400; 3.50%
20-29: 10,113; 25.30%
30-39: 8,771; 21,90%
40-49: 5,198; 13.00%
50-59: 4,896; 12.20%
60-69: 4,542; 11.40%
70-79: 2,756; 6.90%
80-89: 457; 1,10%
90 and over: 47; 0.01%
Unknown: 1,804; 4.50%


Key Upcoming Dates:

  • 24 March 2020: Delegate submission form available

  • 16 May 2020: Democrats Abroad Global Convention

  • 13-16 July 2020: Democratic National Convention

  • 3 November 2020: United States Presidential Election

__________________

IDAHO PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (20 pledged delegates)

Official Results  44 of 44 counties - Idaho Secretary of State | Ballot [PDF]
BIDEN
SANDERS
WARREN
BLOOMBERG
BUTTIGIEG
GABBARD OTHERS (11) TOTAL
53,151
(48.92%)
46,114
(42.44%)
2,878
(2.65%)
2,612
(2.40%)
1,426
(1.31%)
876
(0.81%)
1,592
(1.47%)
108,649
Others on ballot: Klobuchar 774 (0.71%), Yang 310 (0.29%), Steyer 112 (0.10%), Bennet 91 (0.08%), Delaney 65 (0.06%), Williamson 57 (0.05%),
Booker 55 (0.05%), Castro 49 (0.05%), Burke 38 (0.03%), De La Fuente 22 (0.02%), Patrick 19 (0.02%).

Organization:  Biden  |  Sanders

NOTES
Idaho Democrats switched from a caucus system in 2016 to a primary in 2020.  As a result many more people participated (108,649 compared to 23,884).  The outcome was very different as well; in 2016 Sanders routed Clinton by a 3 to 1 margin, while in 2020 Biden defeated Sanders by 6.5 percentage points.

In the Republican primary (+), Trump won 94.46% of 118,958 votes tallied.  In the Constitution Party primary (+), 906 votes were tallied; top finishers were Blankenship 27.59% and Tittle 21.52%.

___________________________

MICHIGAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (125 pledged delegates)

Official Results  83 of 83 Counties Reporting - Michigan Secretary of State Fact Sheet  |  Ballot [PDF]
BIDEN
SANDERS
BLOOMBERG
WARREN
BUTTIGIEG
KLOBUCHAR
GABBARD
OTHERS (8)
UNCOMM.
TOTAL
840,360
(52.93%)
576,926
(36.34%)
73,464
(4.63%)
26,148
(1.65%)
22,462
(1.41%)
11,018
(0.69%)
9,461
(0.60%)
8,734
(0.55%)
19,106
(1.20%)
1,587,679
Others on ballot:  Yang 2,380 (0.15%), Steyer 1,732 (0.11%), Bennet 1,536 (0.10%), Booker 840 (0.05%), Sestak 757 (0.05%), Williamson 719 (0.05%),
Delaney 464 (0.03%), Castro 306 (0.02%)
.

Organization:  Biden  |  Sanders
  | Bloomberg  |  Warren

NOTES
Four campaigns were active on the ground in the months leading up to March 10.  The Warren campaign was first, announcing its state director at the beginning of Oct. 2019 and building out a team in November and December.  Bloomberg, who announced his candidacy on Nov. 24, built a huge organization, including 10 field offices and, according to some reports, up to 100 staff.  His broadcast ad spending dwarfed that of the other candidates.  The Michigan Campaign Finance Network, using data from Advertising Analytics, reported on Mar. 2, 2020, "Since November 2019, Bloomberg has spent nearly $11.8 million to run a reported 50 different ads more than 22,000 times."  During that time Warren and Sanders did very modest advertising.  Further, MCFN reported Bloomberg campaign spent about $2.9 million advertising on Facebook in Michigan.  U.S. Rep. Haley Stevens (MI-11), former U.S. Rep. Mark Schauer and ex-University of Michigan linebacker Dhani Jones were among those supporting Bloomberg.  

Bloomberg and Warren bowed out after Super Tuesday, leaving Sanders and Biden.  For Sanders, who won the 2016 primary by a narrow margin over Clinton, Michigan was seen as a must win.  In the lead up to Super Tuesday, as establishment support coalesced behind Biden, the Sanders campaign decided on a strategy of drawing contrasts with Biden (+).  Following Biden's strong showing on Super Tuesday, the Biden campaign received an influx of contributions, and had much more resources to put into paid media.  As a result Michigan did see a bit of an ad war between the two campaigns in the closing week (1, 2). 

Biden had earned good will of Michiganders from his time as vice president.  As he wrote in an op-ed which appeared in the Detroit News on March 8, "I was proud to oversee the Recovery Act, which rejuvenated Michigan schools, roads, and bridges."  Detroit Mayor Duggan was an early backer, and in the lead up to the March 10 primary the campaign rolled out a wave of endorsements including Gov. Whitmer, Lt Gov. Gilchrist II, U.S. Reps. Slotkin, Stevens and Lawrence, and the Detroit Free Press and the Detroit News.

Biden carried all 14 congressional districts en route to a 16.59 percentage point win over Sanders.  His strongest showings were in CD14 (61.84% - NW side of Detroit, U.S. Rep. Brenda Lawrence), CD5 (58.25% - Lower Peninsula, U.S. Rep. Dan Kildee) and CD13 (57.31% - Wayne Co., U.S. Rep. Rashida Tlaib).  Sanders' best showing was in CD12 (Detroit western suburbs to Ann Arbor, U.S. Rep. Debbie Dingell) where he finished 16 votes of 154,762 tallied (0.01%) behind Biden. 

Edison Research summarized its exit poll data, "Sanders’ support was down among many demographic groups compared to 2016. In 2016, he won among men, white voters, white voters without a college degree and union households – all groups he lost to Biden this year (>)." 

More than twice as many votes were cast in the Democratic primary than in the Republican primary, where Trump won 93.72% of 683,431 votes tallied.  The total votes cast in the primary was 2,271,110. 

Feb. 2020 - Active Registered Voters: 6,691,607. All Registered Voters: 7,700,637.

See also:
Cas Mudde.  "Why Bernie Sanders lost Michigan – and what it means for his campaign."  The Guardian, March 10, 2020.

Sam Gringlas.  "Joe Biden Spent Years Embracing Michigan.  Now He Hopes Voters Return The Favor."  NPR, March 10, 2020.

Joe Biden.  "Michigan, put your faith in Team Joe."  Detroit News, March 8, 2020.

Simon D. Schuster.  "Bloomberg Has Spent $11.8M on TV Ads, Eclipsing Entire 2016 Primary Field."    Michigan Campaign Finance Network, Mar. 2, 2020.

Simon D. Schuster.  "Billionaires and Dark Money Are Dominating Ad Spending In The 2020 Cycle."  Michigan Campaign Finance Network, Jan. 17, 2020.

And note: The second debate was held July 30-31 at Fox Theatre in Detroit.

___________________________

MISSISSIPPI PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (36 pledged delegates)

Official Results  82 of 82 Counties Reporting - Mississippi Secretary of State | Ballots [PDF]
BIDEN
SANDERS
BLOOMBERG
WARREN
GABBARD
OTHERS (5)
TOTAL
222,160
(80.96%)
40,657
(14.82%)
6,933
(2.53%)
1,550
(0.56%)
1,003
(0.37%)
2,088
(0.76%)
274,391
Others on ballot: Buttigieg 562, Yang 450, Klobuchar 440, Steyer 378, Patrick 258.

Organization:  Biden  |  Sanders  |  Bloomberg

NOTES
The Sanders campaign pulled back from Mississippi so as to focus on Michigan.  On March 4 the campaign had announced Sanders would make a speech in Jackson on March 6, but the campaign cancelled that appearance and instead sent two surrogates.

Mississippi provided Biden's strongest showing to date.  Edison Research reported "seven in ten voters were African American and 87% of them voted for Biden (>)."

274,391 votes were tallied in the Democratic primary and 245,381 in the Republican primary.

24,295 absentee ballots requested and 21,392 absentee ballots returned.

1,920,958 active registered voters.

___________________________

MISSOURI PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (68 pledged delegates)

Official Results  3,653 of 3,653 Precincts Reporting - Missouri Secretary of State | Ballot [PDF]
BIDEN
SANDERS
BLOOMBERG
WARREN
GABBARD
OTHERS (17)
UNCOMM.
TOTAL
400,347
(60.10%)
230,374
(34.59%)
9,866
(1.48%)
8,156
(1.22%)
4,887
(0.73%)
9,988
(1.50%)
2,494
(0.37%)
666,112
Others on ballot: Buttigieg 3,309 (0.50%), Klobuchar 2,682 (0.40%), Yang 953 (0.14%), Booker 651 (0.10%), Steyer 584 (0.09%), Haas 392 (0.06%), Bennet 206 (0.03%), V.Steinman 191 (0.03%), L.SteinmanII 175 (0.03%), Williamson 170 (0.03%), Delaney 159 (0.02%), Burke 122 (0.02%), Castro 103 (0.02%), Hewes 94 (0.01%), Wells 79 (0.01%), De La Fuente 66 (0.01%), Patrick 52 (0.01%).

Organization:  Biden  |  Sanders  |  Bloomberg Warren

NOTES
in the 2016 primary contest Hillary Clinton prevailed over Bernie Sanders by just 0.25 percentage points, but the 2020 primary was not close.  Biden carried all 116 election jurisdictions, finishing ahead of Sanders by 25.51 percentage points.

More than twice as many votes were cast in the Democratic primary than the Republican primary, which Trump won with 96.84% of 311,793 votes tallied.  Jacob Hornberger won the Libertarian primary  with 74.80% of 2,266 votes tallied, the rest going to uncommitted.  519 votes were tallied in the Green primary; Howie Hawkins won 33.14% to 29.09% uncommitted, 21.58% for Dario Hunter and 16.19% for David Rolde.  735 votes were tallied in the Constitution Party primary; Don Blankenship won 39.05% to 38.10% uncommitted and 22.86% for Don Grundmann.  Altogether a total of 981,425 votes were tallied.

___________________________

NORTH DAKOTA PRESIDENTIAL CAUCUSES (14 pledged delegates)

Official Results  | Ballot [PDF]
SANDERS
BIDEN
GABBARD
OTHERS
TOTAL
7,682
(52.81%)
5,742
(39.47%)
89
(0.01%)
1,033
(7.10%)
14,546

Organization:  Biden  |  Sanders  |  Bloomberg

NOTES
In 2016 North Dakota Democratic NPL held caucuses at the end of the primary season on June 7.  The process in 2020 was quite different.  The party moved the date forward to March and added vote by mail (###ballots were sent out on ###).  On March 10 Democrats could vote in person at 14 locations in a "firehouse caucus" (essentially a primary).  The state provided Sanders' only win of the night. 

[delegate selection details]

___________________________

WASHINGTON PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (89 pledged delegates)

Official Results 7,399 of 7,399 Precincts Reporting - Washington Secretary of State  |  Voters Pamphlet [PDF]  Ballot [PDF]
BIDEN
SANDERS
WARREN
BLOOMBERG
BUTTIGIEG
KLOBUCHAR
GABBARD
OTHERS (6+)
UNCOMM.
TOTAL
591,403
(37.94%)
570,039
(36.57%)
142,652
(9.15%)
122,530
(7.86%)
63,344
(4.06%)
33,383
(2.14%)
13,199
(0.85%)
15,776
(1.01%)
6,450
(0.41%)
1,558,776
Others: Yang 6,403 (0.41%), Steyer 3,455 (0.22%), Bennet 2,044 (0.13%), Booker 1,314 (0.08%), Delaney 573 (0.04%), Patrick 508 (0.03%), w/in 1,479 (0.09%).

Organization:  Biden  |  Sanders  |  Bloomberg Warren

NOTES
In 2016 Sanders achieved a lopsided win (72.72%) in the March 26 Democratic caucuses.  The primary, held on May 24, had no effect on the selection of delegates; Clinton won by 54% to 46%.  In March 2019 the legislature passed, and on March 15 Gov. Jay Inslee signed, SB 5273 to move the primary forward.  Both parties use the primary to determine allocation of delegates.

Inslee himself waged a brief campaign for the Democratic nomination from Mar. 1-Aug. 21, 2019, but had long since exited the race by the time of the primary.  Four campaigns were particularly active on the ground in the months leading up to March 10: Bloomberg, Warren, Sanders and Biden.  Ballots were mailed by Feb. 21.  Biden achieved a narrow win, carrying 26 counties to 13 for Sanders.  In the Republican primary, Trump was the only candidate on the ballot and obtained 98.4% of 695,275 votes tallied.

Registration: 4,553,013 (active), 407,428 (inactive).  Ballots Issued: 4,661,931. 
Ballots Received: 2,352,866.  Ballots Counted*: 2,256,488.  Voter Turnout: 49.56%.

*technical note
Kylee Zabel, WASOS communications director, explained the difference between ballots received and ballots counted in an email, and I have added some language for further clarity outside the quotes:

"Ballots received are the number of ballot envelopes that were turned into county election offices. Ballots in envelopes may be rejected for a number of reasons, but the main reasons are unsigned envelopes or postmark dates after Election Day. These are 'too late' to count. The county canvassing board inspects unsigned envelopes and postmarks to make those final determinations. Ballots counted reflects the number of ballots that were scanned and tabulated toward the final total."

In addition to unsigned envelopes and late postmarks which can be discerned without opening the envelope, there are also "ballots that were rejected/unable to be processed after the ballot return envelope had passed signature verification and the ballot had been separated from the return envelope," including cross party ballots (voter checked one party on the outside envelope but voted the other party on the ballot), both party ballots, empty secrecy envelopes, and even ballots from a previous election. These are "credited envelopes without ballots."

For the 2020 presidential primary, a bit more than 4% of the ballots received were not counted. The reconciliation report shows 2,256,279 ballots counted and 95,261 rejected >

missing signature 3,448
bad signature 11,989
late postmark 12,970

cross party ballots 9,695
both party ballots 9,654

other 66,853



REPUBLICAN RESULTS

.
Idaho
Trump 112,373 (94.46%), Weld 2,486 (2.09%), Walsh 2,341 (1.97%), Matern 647 (0.54%), De La Fuente 637 (0.54%), Ely 474 (0.40%).  Total: 118,958.

Michigan
Trump 640,522 (93.72%), Weld 6,099 (0.89%), Sanford 4,258 (0.62%), Walsh 4,067 (0.60%), Uncomm. 28,485 (4.17%).  Total: 683,431.

Mississippi
Trump 241,985 (98.62%), Weld 2,311 (0.94%), De La Fuente 1,085 (0.44%).  Total: 245,381.

Missouri
Trump 301,953 (96.84%), Uncomm. 4,216 (1.35%), Weld 2,171 (0.70%), Walsh 2,015 (0.65%), Ely 844 (0.27%), Matern 594 (0.19%).  Total: 311,793.

Washington
Trump 684,239 (98.41%), write-ins 11,036 (1.59%).  Total: 695,275.