- The Road to Milwaukee « March 10, 2020 Mini Super Tuesday
March 10, 2020 - Mini Super Tuesday
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March
3
| March 10
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17
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434 Delegates (365 Pledged)
Summary: Following
the
exits
of
Bloomberg
and
Warren
after Super Tuesday, the race boiled down to Joe
Biden versus Bernie Sanders (with Tulsi Gabbard as an asterisk).
The big prize of the day was Michigan. Of the six states holding
contests, Biden won five, continuing
his seemingly inevitable path to the nomination. Reactions
DEMOCRATS ABROAD GLOBAL PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (13
pledged
delegates)
SANDERS |
BIDEN |
WARREN* |
BLOOMBERG* |
OTHERS (6) |
UNCOMM. |
TOTAL |
23,139 (57.87%) |
9,059 (22.66%) |
5,730 (14.33%) |
892 (2.23%) |
1,116 (2.79%) |
48 (0.12%) |
39,984 |
*Bloomberg suspended his campaign on Mar. 4 and Warren on Mar. 5, while voting was still occurring.
Gabbard was still an active candidate at time of voting.
NOTES
The Democrats Abroad Global Presidential Primary ran from
March 3-10 with remote voting by email, fax and mail and in-person
voting at over 230 voting centers in 45 countries around the
world. Ballots
were
available
from
Feb.
18,
and
6,632
votes or about 16.6% were cast early.
[ed. note: text below combines two posts at www.democratsabroad.org/news]
Democrats Abroad
March 23, 2020
Democrats
Abroad,
the
official
international
arm
of
the
Democratic
party,
today
announced
the verified results of the Global Presidential Primary:
•
Senator Bernie Sanders received 23,139 votes (57.9%), resulting
in 9 delegates.
•
Vice President Joe Biden received 9,059 (22.7%), resulting in 4
delegates.
“Americans abroad have spoken, and they’ve done so in higher numbers than ever, despite the challenges of Covid-19,” said Julia Bryan, Global Chair of Democrats Abroad. “I’d like to congratulate all of our volunteers and leaders for helping voters participate - either remotely, or in voting centers, and I’d like to thank the voters in 180 countries who cast their ballot in our largest-ever Global Presidential Primary.”
This is the highest turnout that Democrats Abroad has seen in a Presidential primary, up more than 15% from 2016. Sanders also received the most votes in the 2016 primary against Hillary Clinton (23,779 votes to 10,689, respectively).
“Americans abroad are consistently a very blue voting bloc, and the turnout we’ve seen during the primary, as well as in voter turnout of general elections in 2016 and 2018, reflect that. Our voters believe in affordable healthcare and education, and a government that looks after its people -- both those citizens at home and abroad,” added Amanda Mohar, Communications Director. “When it comes to our 2020 efforts, the focus now turns to readying the thousands and thousands of other blue voters around the world to request, receive and return their ballot for the general elections.”
The results of the primary determine the number of delegates that each presidential candidate will receive from Democrats Abroad at the Democratic National Convention this July - thus helping determine the Democratic presidential nominee for the 2020 elections. Democrats Abroad sends 21 delegates to the Convention, 13 of which are pledged delegates.
All
Americans
residing
outside
the
United
States
may
run
for
a
convention
delegate position, provided they are 18 or older by November 3, 2020,
are Democrats Abroad members and do not participate in any other US
presidential primary this year. The submission form to become a
delegate will be available at democratsabroad.org beginning March 24.
Additional Stats:
-
• Voters in 180 countries successfully cast their ballots.
-
• Voters in the EMEA region cast more ballots (25,762) than those in the Americas (7,959) and Asia Pacific (6,263).
-
• Countries with the highest total turnout included UK (5,689), Germany (5,268), Canada (4,691), France (3,017) and Mexico (1,504).
-
• The UK saw the most votes cast remotely, at 3,965.
-
• Germany saw the most in-person votes cast, at 2,741.
-
• Country committees in Argentina, Ecuador, Finland and Romania held their first-ever in-person voting centers.
VOTING IN-PERSON VS. REMOTE
While
turnout
this
year
was
bolstered
by
Democrats
Abroad's
more
than
230
voting centers worldwide, most voters participated remotely.
•
Voted by Email, Fax, and Post:
25,442; 63.63%
•
Voted In-Person: 14,542; 36.37%
Lots of voters were eager to cast their ballot! In total, 6,632 were cast early, before Super Tuesday. Democrats Abroad could vote from home as early as Feb 18, and return their ballot via fax, email or postal mail.
VOTING AGE
Estimates
indicate
that
voters
skewed
on
the
younger
side,
with
around
half of
all votes cast by voters under 40.
Under
20:
1,400;
3.50%
20-29: 10,113; 25.30%
30-39: 8,771; 21,90%
40-49: 5,198; 13.00%
50-59: 4,896; 12.20%
60-69: 4,542; 11.40%
70-79: 2,756; 6.90%
80-89: 457; 1,10%
90 and over: 47; 0.01%
Unknown: 1,804; 4.50%
Key Upcoming Dates:
-
24 March 2020: Delegate submission form available
-
16 May 2020: Democrats Abroad Global Convention
-
13-16 July 2020: Democratic National Convention
-
3 November 2020: United States Presidential Election
__________________
IDAHO
PRESIDENTIAL
PRIMARY
(20
pledged
delegates)
BIDEN |
SANDERS |
WARREN |
BLOOMBERG |
BUTTIGIEG |
GABBARD | OTHERS (11) | TOTAL |
53,151 (48.92%) |
46,114 (42.44%) |
2,878 (2.65%) |
2,612 (2.40%) |
1,426 (1.31%) |
876 (0.81%) |
1,592 (1.47%) |
108,649 |
Booker 55 (0.05%), Castro 49 (0.05%), Burke 38 (0.03%), De La Fuente 22 (0.02%), Patrick 19 (0.02%).
NOTES
Idaho Democrats
switched from a caucus system in 2016 to a primary in 2020. As a
result many more people participated (108,649 compared to
23,884).
The outcome was very different as well; in 2016 Sanders routed Clinton
by a 3 to 1 margin, while in 2020 Biden defeated Sanders by 6.5
percentage points.
In the Republican primary (+), Trump won 94.46% of
118,958 votes tallied. In the Constitution Party primary (+), 906 votes were tallied;
top finishers were Blankenship 27.59% and Tittle 21.52%.
___________________________
MICHIGAN
PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (125 pledged
delegates)
BIDEN |
SANDERS |
BLOOMBERG |
WARREN |
BUTTIGIEG |
KLOBUCHAR |
GABBARD |
OTHERS (8) |
UNCOMM. |
TOTAL |
840,360 (52.93%) |
576,926 (36.34%) |
73,464 (4.63%) |
26,148 (1.65%) |
22,462 (1.41%) |
11,018 (0.69%) |
9,461 (0.60%) |
8,734 (0.55%) |
19,106 (1.20%) |
1,587,679 |
Delaney 464 (0.03%), Castro 306 (0.02%).
NOTES
Four campaigns
were active on the ground in the months leading up to March 10. The
Warren
campaign
was
first,
announcing
its
state
director
at
the
beginning
of
Oct.
2019
and building out a team in November and
December. Bloomberg, who announced his candidacy on Nov. 24,
built a huge organization, including 10 field offices and, according to
some reports, up to 100 staff. His broadcast ad spending dwarfed
that of the other candidates. The Michigan Campaign Finance
Network, using data from Advertising Analytics, reported on Mar. 2,
2020, "Since November 2019, Bloomberg has spent nearly $11.8 million to
run a reported 50 different ads more than 22,000 times." During
that time Warren and Sanders did very modest advertising.
Further, MCFN reported Bloomberg campaign spent about $2.9 million
advertising on Facebook in
Michigan.
U.S. Rep. Haley Stevens (MI-11), former U.S. Rep. Mark Schauer
and ex-University of Michigan linebacker Dhani Jones were among those
supporting Bloomberg.
Bloomberg and Warren bowed
out after Super Tuesday, leaving Sanders and Biden. For Sanders,
who won the 2016 primary by a narrow margin over Clinton, Michigan was
seen as a must win. In the lead up to Super Tuesday, as
establishment support coalesced behind Biden, the Sanders campaign
decided on a strategy of drawing contrasts with Biden (+). Following
Biden's strong showing on Super Tuesday, the Biden campaign received an
influx of contributions, and had much more resources to put into paid
media. As a result Michigan did see a bit of an ad war between
the two campaigns in the closing week (1,
2).
Biden had earned good will
of Michiganders from his time as vice president. As he wrote in
an op-ed which appeared in the Detroit
News on March 8, "I
was proud to oversee the Recovery Act, which rejuvenated Michigan
schools, roads, and bridges." Detroit Mayor Duggan was an early
backer, and in the lead up to the March 10 primary the campaign rolled
out a wave
of endorsements including Gov. Whitmer, Lt Gov. Gilchrist II, U.S.
Reps. Slotkin, Stevens and Lawrence, and the Detroit Free Press and the Detroit News.
Biden carried all
14 congressional districts en route to a 16.59 percentage
point win over Sanders. His strongest showings were in CD14
(61.84% - NW side of Detroit, U.S. Rep. Brenda Lawrence), CD5 (58.25% -
Lower Peninsula, U.S. Rep. Dan Kildee) and CD13 (57.31% - Wayne Co.,
U.S. Rep. Rashida Tlaib). Sanders' best showing was in CD12
(Detroit western suburbs to Ann Arbor, U.S. Rep. Debbie Dingell) where
he finished 16 votes of 154,762 tallied (0.01%) behind Biden.
Edison Research summarized its exit poll data, "Sanders’ support was down among many demographic groups compared to 2016. In 2016, he won among men, white voters, white voters without a college degree and union households – all groups he lost to Biden this year (>)."
More than twice as many votes were cast in the Democratic primary than in the Republican primary, where Trump won 93.72% of 683,431 votes tallied. The total votes cast in the primary was 2,271,110.
Feb. 2020 - Active
Registered Voters: 6,691,607. All Registered Voters: 7,700,637.
See also:
Cas Mudde. "Why Bernie Sanders lost Michigan – and what it means
for his campaign." The
Guardian, March 10, 2020.
Sam Gringlas. "Joe
Biden Spent Years Embracing Michigan. Now He Hopes Voters Return
The Favor." NPR,
March
10,
2020.
Joe Biden. "Michigan,
put your faith in Team Joe." Detroit
News, March 8, 2020.
Simon D. Schuster. "Bloomberg Has Spent $11.8M on TV Ads, Eclipsing Entire 2016 Primary Field." Michigan Campaign Finance Network, Mar. 2, 2020.
Simon D. Schuster.
"Billionaires and Dark Money Are Dominating Ad Spending In The 2020
Cycle." Michigan
Campaign
Finance
Network, Jan. 17, 2020.
And note: The second debate
was held July 30-31 at Fox Theatre in Detroit.
___________________________
MISSISSIPPI
PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (36 pledged
delegates)
BIDEN |
SANDERS |
BLOOMBERG |
WARREN |
GABBARD |
OTHERS (5) |
TOTAL |
222,160 (80.96%) |
40,657 (14.82%) |
6,933 (2.53%) |
1,550 (0.56%) |
1,003 (0.37%) |
2,088 (0.76%) |
274,391 |
NOTES
The Sanders campaign pulled
back from Mississippi so as to focus on Michigan. On March 4 the
campaign
had announced Sanders would make a speech in Jackson on March 6, but
the campaign cancelled that appearance and instead sent two surrogates.
Mississippi provided Biden's strongest showing to date. Edison Research reported "seven in ten voters were African American and 87% of them voted for Biden (>)."
274,391 votes were tallied
in the Democratic primary and 245,381 in the Republican primary.
24,295 absentee ballots requested and 21,392 absentee ballots returned.
1,920,958 active registered
voters.
___________________________
MISSOURI
PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (68 pledged
delegates)
BIDEN |
SANDERS |
BLOOMBERG |
WARREN |
GABBARD |
OTHERS (17) |
UNCOMM. |
TOTAL |
400,347 (60.10%) |
230,374 (34.59%) |
9,866 (1.48%) |
8,156 (1.22%) |
4,887 (0.73%) |
9,988 (1.50%) |
2,494 (0.37%) |
666,112 |
NOTES
in the 2016 primary
contest Hillary Clinton prevailed over Bernie Sanders by just 0.25
percentage points, but the 2020 primary was not close. Biden
carried all 116
election jurisdictions, finishing ahead of Sanders by 25.51 percentage
points.
More than twice as many votes were cast in the Democratic primary than the Republican primary, which Trump won with 96.84% of 311,793 votes tallied. Jacob Hornberger won the Libertarian primary with 74.80% of 2,266 votes tallied, the rest going to uncommitted. 519 votes were tallied in the Green primary; Howie Hawkins won 33.14% to 29.09% uncommitted, 21.58% for Dario Hunter and 16.19% for David Rolde. 735 votes were tallied in the Constitution Party primary; Don Blankenship won 39.05% to 38.10% uncommitted and 22.86% for Don Grundmann. Altogether a total of 981,425 votes were tallied.
___________________________
NORTH DAKOTA
PRESIDENTIAL CAUCUSES (14 pledged
delegates)
SANDERS |
BIDEN |
GABBARD |
OTHERS |
TOTAL |
7,682 (52.81%) |
5,742 (39.47%) |
89 (0.01%) |
1,033 (7.10%) |
14,546 |
NOTES
In 2016 North Dakota
Democratic NPL held caucuses at the end
of the primary season on June 7. The process in 2020 was quite
different. The party moved the date forward to
March and added vote by mail (###ballots
were sent out on ###). On March 10 Democrats could vote in person
at 14 locations in a "firehouse caucus" (essentially a primary).
The
state provided Sanders' only win of the night.
___________________________
WASHINGTON
PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (89 pledged
delegates)
BIDEN |
SANDERS |
WARREN |
BLOOMBERG |
BUTTIGIEG |
KLOBUCHAR |
GABBARD |
OTHERS (6+) |
UNCOMM. |
TOTAL |
591,403 (37.94%) |
570,039 (36.57%) |
142,652 (9.15%) |
122,530 (7.86%) |
63,344 (4.06%) |
33,383 (2.14%) |
13,199 (0.85%) |
15,776 (1.01%) |
6,450 (0.41%) |
1,558,776 |
NOTES
In 2016 Sanders achieved a
lopsided win (72.72%) in the March 26 Democratic caucuses. The
primary, held on May 24, had no effect on the selection of delegates;
Clinton won by 54% to 46%. In March 2019 the legislature passed,
and on March 15 Gov. Jay Inslee signed, SB
5273 to move the primary forward. Both parties use the
primary to determine allocation of delegates.
Inslee himself waged a brief
campaign for the Democratic nomination
from Mar. 1-Aug. 21, 2019, but had long since exited the race by the
time of the primary.
Four campaigns
were particularly active on the ground in the months leading up to
March 10: Bloomberg, Warren, Sanders and Biden.
Ballots were mailed by Feb.
21. Biden achieved a narrow win, carrying 26 counties to 13 for
Sanders.
In
the
Republican
primary,
Trump
was
the
only
candidate
on
the ballot
and obtained 98.4% of 695,275 votes tallied.
Registration: 4,553,013
(active), 407,428 (inactive). Ballots Issued: 4,661,931.
Ballots Received: 2,352,866. Ballots Counted*: 2,256,488.
Voter Turnout: 49.56%.
*technical
note
Kylee
Zabel, WASOS communications director, explained the difference between
ballots received and ballots counted in an email, and I have added some
language for further clarity outside the quotes:
"Ballots received are the number of ballot envelopes that were turned into county election offices. Ballots in envelopes may be rejected for a number of reasons, but the main reasons are unsigned envelopes or postmark dates after Election Day. These are 'too late' to count. The county canvassing board inspects unsigned envelopes and postmarks to make those final determinations. Ballots counted reflects the number of ballots that were scanned and tabulated toward the final total."
In addition to unsigned envelopes and late postmarks which can be discerned without opening the envelope, there are also "ballots that were rejected/unable to be processed after the ballot return envelope had passed signature verification and the ballot had been separated from the return envelope," including cross party ballots (voter checked one party on the outside envelope but voted the other party on the ballot), both party ballots, empty secrecy envelopes, and even ballots from a previous election. These are "credited envelopes without ballots."
For the 2020 presidential
primary, a bit more than 4% of the ballots received were not counted.
The reconciliation report shows 2,256,279 ballots counted and 95,261
rejected >.
missing signature 3,448
bad signature 11,989
late postmark 12,970
cross party ballots 9,695
both party ballots 9,654
other 66,853
REPUBLICAN RESULTS
Trump 112,373 (94.46%), Weld 2,486 (2.09%), Walsh 2,341 (1.97%), Matern 647 (0.54%), De La Fuente 637 (0.54%), Ely 474 (0.40%). Total: 118,958.
Michigan
Trump 640,522 (93.72%), Weld 6,099 (0.89%), Sanford 4,258 (0.62%), Walsh 4,067 (0.60%), Uncomm. 28,485 (4.17%). Total: 683,431.
Mississippi
Trump 241,985 (98.62%), Weld 2,311 (0.94%), De La Fuente 1,085 (0.44%). Total: 245,381.
Missouri
Trump 301,953 (96.84%), Uncomm. 4,216 (1.35%), Weld 2,171 (0.70%), Walsh 2,015 (0.65%), Ely 844 (0.27%), Matern 594 (0.19%). Total: 311,793.
Washington
Trump 684,239 (98.41%), write-ins 11,036 (1.59%). Total: 695,275.