- The Road to Milwaukee « February 11, 2020 New Hampshire Primary
February 11, 2020 - New Hampshire Primary
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33 Delegates (24 Pledged)
Summary: After the confusion following the Iowa caucuses,
the New Hampshire primary provided some clarity, producing three top
finishers (Sanders, Buttigieg and Klobuchar), forcing three candidates
(Yang, Bennet and Patrick) out of the race, and reducing the field to
eight candidates.
NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY (24 pledged
delegates)
SANDERS |
BUTTIGIEG |
KLOBUCHAR |
WARREN |
BIDEN |
STEYER |
GABBARD |
YANG |
OTHERS
(25) |
SCATTER |
TOTAL |
76,384 (25.60%) |
72,454 (24.28%) |
58,714 (19.68%) |
27,429 (9.19%) |
24,944 (8.36%) |
10,732 (3.60%) |
9,755 (3.27%) |
8,312 (2.79%) |
3,572 (1.20%) |
6,081 (2.04%) |
298,377 |
6,081 Scatter (write-ins) include Bloomberg 4,675 and Trump 1,217.
OVERVIEW
Turnout in the Democratic primary was higher than in 2016
(298,377
votes tallied versus 249,543 in 2016), while turnout in the
uncompetitive Republican primary, 153,711 votes tallied, was down from
282,979 in 2016. For the Feb. 11, 2020 primary 130,738 undeclared
voters requested Democratic
ballots and 39,662 undeclared voters requested Republican ballots.
Edison Research exit polling in the New Hampshire
Democratic primary found, "There were twice as many “late deciders” –
voters who made up their minds which candidate to support in the days
leading up to Election Day – this year as in 2016; 51% of the
electorate said they decided who to vote for on election day or in the
last few days leading up to it, compared to 25% in 2016."
Further, more than half the late deciders voted for either
Buttigieg or Klobuchar. The Feb. 7 debate
was an important factor for 49% of those surveyed. The
exit poll results also showed, "Sanders won with strong support from
voters under 30 (47%), the most liberal wing of the party (46%) and new
voters (29%)." (>)
Sanders' narrow win contrasted with his showing of a bit over 60% of
the vote against Clinton in the 2016 primary. In 2020, with a
crowded field, Sanders garnered 25.6% of the vote, tallying half as
many votes as he had in 2016. Sanders carried 7 counties to 3 for
Buttigieg. Sanders' strongest finish was in Cheshire Co. (31.36%)
which is adjacent to Vermont and home to Keene State College. His
weakest showing was in Rockingham Co. (22.64%).
Buttigieg carried Belknap,
Carroll and Rockingham Cos.; his strongest showing was in Rockingham
Co. (26.47%) and his weakest showing in Coos Co. (20.24%).
Klobuchar finished third in
every county; her strongest showing was in Merrimack Co.
(22.06%). Her message highlighting her ability to things done in
the U.S. Senate may have resonated in the state capital area. Her
weakest showings were in Coos Co. (17.34%) and Strafford Co. (17.35%)
Warren's strongest finish
was in Grafton Co. (13.51%), possibly because of support from
Dartmouth;
in all other counties she finished below 10%.
Biden's strongest finish was
in sparsely populated Coos Co. in the far north (10.47%). His
worst showings were in Cheshire Co. (6.64%) and Grafton Co (6.93%).
SANDERS |
BUTTIGIEG |
KLOBUCHAR |
WARREN |
BIDEN |
STEYER |
GABBARD |
YANG |
OTH/SCT |
||
Belknap |
2,670 (23.54%) |
2,798 (24.67%) |
2,323 (20.48%) |
839 (7.40%) |
1,122 (9.89%) |
488 (4.30%) |
444 (3.91%) |
248 (2.19%) |
410 (3.61%) |
11,342 |
Carroll |
2,608 (23.25%) |
2,815 (25.09%) |
2,464 (21.96%) |
904 (8.06%) |
1,020 (9.09%) |
322 (2.87%) |
403 (3.59%) |
229 (2.04%) |
453 (4.04%) |
11,218 |
Cheshire |
5,973 (31.36%) |
4,053 (21.28%) |
3,616 (18.98%) |
1,816 (9.53%) |
1,265 (6.64%) |
651 (3.42%) |
587 (3.08%) |
597 (3.13%) |
490 (2.57%) |
19,048 |
Coos |
1,562 (28.90%) |
1,094 (20.24%) |
937 (17.34%) |
395 (7.31%) |
566 (10.47%) |
226 (4.18%) |
206 (3.81%) |
146 (2.70%) |
273 (5.05%) |
5,405 |
Grafton |
6,606 (27.09%) |
5,805 (23.81%) |
4,277 (17.54%) |
3,295 (13.51%) |
1,689 (6.93%) |
550 (2.26%) |
561 (2.30%) |
873 (3.60%) |
729 (2.99%) |
24,385 |
Hillsborough |
21,659 (25.51%) |
20,539 (24.19%) |
16,702 (19.67%) |
7,266 (8.56%) |
7,375 (8.69%) |
3,165 (3.73%) |
3,058 (3.60%) |
2,386 (2.81%) |
2,715 (3.20%) |
84,901 |
Merrimack |
8,636 (24.26%) |
8,466 (23.78%) |
7,853 (22.06%) |
3,177 (8.93%) |
2,863 (8.04%) |
1,332 (3.74%) |
1,163 (3.27%) |
905 (2.54%) |
1,199 (3.37%) |
35,594 |
Rockingham |
15,331 (22.64%) |
17,929 (26.47%) |
13,736 (20.29%) |
5,928 (8.76%) |
6,069 (8.96%) |
2,659 (3.93%) |
2,133 (3.15%) |
1,736 (2.56%) |
2,187 (3.23%) |
67,708 |
Strafford |
8,919 (29.88%) |
6,767 (22.67%) |
5,180 (17.35%) |
2,971 (9.95%) |
2,251 (7.54%) |
1,075 (3.60%) |
887 (2.97%) |
954 (3.20%) |
847 (2.84%) |
29,851 |
Sullivan |
2,420 (27.11%) |
2,188 (24.52%) |
1,626 (18.22%) |
838 (9.39%) |
724 (8.11%) |
264 (2.96%) |
313 (3.51%) |
238 (2.67%) |
314 (3.52%) |
8,925 |
Total |
76,384 (25.60%) |
72,454
(24.28%)
|
58,714 (19.68%) |
27,429 (9.19%) |
24,944 (8.36%) |
10,732 (3.60%) |
9,755 (3.27%) |
8,312 (2.79%) |
9,653 (3.24%) |
298,377 |
___________________________
Names on Checklist (Registered Voters)
February 11, 2020
Republican |
Democratic |
Undeclared |
Total |
1 |
2A |
2B |
3 |
||
Belknap |
17,074 |
12,083 |
16,119 |
45,276 |
1,567 |
1,968 |
5,033 |
4,956 |
|
Carroll |
13,608 |
10,954 |
16,337 |
40,899 |
996 |
1,673 |
5,499 |
5,127 |
|
Cheshire |
14,962 |
22,004 |
23,713 |
60,679 |
2,689 |
2,294 |
8,609 |
7,970 |
|
Coos |
5,898 |
6,174 |
8,608 |
20,680 |
673 |
1,030 |
2,039 |
2,330 |
|
Grafton |
16,073 |
26,089 |
29,441 |
71,603 |
3,666 |
2,035 |
10,642 |
9,396 |
|
Hillsborough |
86,625 |
89,810 |
110,715 |
287,150 |
11,785 |
11,533 |
38,388 |
37,537 |
|
Merrimack |
34,735 |
37,484 |
43,305 |
115,524 |
5,166 |
4,476 |
14,871 |
14,665 |
|
Rockingham |
82,134 |
74,283 |
91,049 |
247,466 |
7,816 |
9,729 |
29,662 |
28,245 |
|
Strafford |
25,379 |
36,156 |
38,042 |
99,577 |
5,504 |
3,030 |
11,664 |
10,043 |
|
Sullivan |
9,054 |
9,568 |
10,297 |
28,919 |
955 |
1,894 |
4,331 |
4,048 |
|
Totals |
305,542 |
324,608 |
387,626 |
1,017,773 |
40,817 |
39,662 |
130,738 |
124,317 |
|
1. Number of persons who
registered to vote at the polling place
2A. Number of undeclared voters voting Republican
2B. Number of undeclared voters voting Democratic
3. Number of undeclared voters declaring a party to vote and returned
to undeclared status before leaving the polling place
___________________________
153,711 votes were tallied in the NH Republican Primary:
Trump 129,744 (84.41%), Weld 13,844 (9.01%), Maxwell 929, Walsh 838, Merrill 524, Murphy 447, Matern 268, Comley Sr. 202, De La Fuente 148, Kraft 109, Payne 83, Ardini 77, Boddie 72, Ely 68, Locke 66, Horn 65, Gyurko 56, Scatter 6,181.
6,081 Scatter
(write-ins) include Buttigieg 1,136, Klobuchar 1,096, Bloomberg 801,
Sanders 743, Romney 632, Gabbard 369, Biden 330, Steyer 225, Warren
157, Yang 152.