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« Early May 2019—Need to Impeach May
13, 2019 Memo
Need to Impeach
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE:
Monday, May 13, 2019
CONTACT: NTI Press
Office
Tom Steyer Makes the Political Case for Impeachment
Memo breaks down Democratic leadership’s argument against impeachment and highlights why impeachment is a winning strategy for Democrats
San Francisco, CA —
Today,
Tom Steyer’s Need to Impeach released a
memo
laying out the political argument for impeachment, highlighting that
impeachment is not only a moral and constitutional necessity, but a
sound political strategy for Democrats. The memo seeks to correct
faulty and misleading information surrounding impeachment and makes the
case that an impeachment process showing leadership and political
courage will galvanize democratic voters going into 2020. Need to
Impeach is sending this memo to Congress to set the record straight and
make it easier for members to vote their conscience and uphold their
oath of office. To make the case directly to Speaker Pelosi and her
constituents, Tom Steyer penned
an
Op-Ed that ran on Monday in the San Francisco Chronicle.
“Beltway insiders are worried about impeachment, because it goes beyond
popular cliches and focus groups: it demands political courage and
moral clarity,” said Need to Impeach founder Tom Steyer.
“Impeachment
proceedings
are
an
opportunity
to show the country that
one party is willing to give corruption and abuse of power a pass, and
the other is not. Despite what pundits might say, impeachment isn’t
going to hurt us in 2020 — what’s going to hurt us is if we — the
Democratic Party — refuse to stand up for our values and hold
Donald
Trump accountable.”
The Congressional Leadership has been saying impeachment is bad
politics for over a year with little or faulty data to back up their
claim. After saying for months that they wanted to wait for the
Mueller Report, Democratic leaders are now justifying inaction by
saying that impeachment would galvanize the Republican base and make it
harder to beat Donald Trump in 2020.
The memo corrects the record about the political fallout of President
Clinton’s impeachment — showing that the Clinton impeachment did not
hurt Republicans politically — and shows that comparisons between Trump
and Clinton are misguided. Furthermore, the memos shows that
impeachment proceedings against Richard Nixon both shifted public
opinion and were a political windfall for Democrats, and could be again
ahead of 2020. Voters are looking for leadership and authenticity, not
crafty political maneuvering. People believe that Washington is failing
them, and inaction in the face of a constitutional crisis will make it
worse.
The memo is part of Steyer’s Need to Impeach campaign, which has
garnered over 8 million signatures from all 50 states and has mailed
over 800,000 notecards building support for impeachment. Since January,
NTI supporters have contacted members of Congress over 1.5 million
times and delivered a petition calling for impeachment with over 10
million signatures in cooperation with our partners. Need to Impeach
has also organized over 200 congressional visits, organized canvassing
in districts represented by key members of the Democratic leadership,
and run a series of ad campaigns to raise awareness and build support
for impeachment.
Steyer launched Need to Impeach on October 20, 2017, with an initial
$40 million investment to raise the voices of people across the country
who were angered by Trump’s presidency and corruption. Earlier this
year, Steyer committed an additional $40 million in 2019 toward
impeaching Trump.
See below for the full memo: “The Political Case for Impeaching
Now.”
>From: Tom Steyer
To: Interested Parties
Regarding: The Political Case for Impeaching Now
Date: May 10, 2019
For
two years, members of Congress have wanted to “wait and see” special
counsel Robert Mueller’s report before making any decisions about
impeachment. Now that Mueller’s report has arrived, and the special
counsel is expected to testify before Congress, these members will have
to decide if they are going to act on the evidence federal
investigators uncovered, or choose to ignore Donald Trump’s crimes.
Mueller’s team exposed
at least 140 contacts between the Kremlin and the Trump team, netted
199 criminal charges, 37 indictments or guilty pleas, and five prison
sentences. Their report shows that the president and his team knew
about what the Russians were up to; that they asked for, welcomed, and
received help from Moscow; and then lied to cover their tracks. They
also presented evidence showing that Donald Trump obstructed justice. Roughly
800
former federal prosecutors agree that had Mr. Trump been anyone other
than a sitting president, he would be facing multiple felony charges.
In short, Mueller’s report is an impeachment referral in everything but
name.
Already, almost every House Democrat agrees that Donald Trump
participated in “highly
unethical
and
unscrupulous
behavior.” House Democrats routinely say
he betrays
the
Constitution and attacks
our
democracy; they claim he is worse
than
Nixon.
They already know Mr. Trump’s wrongdoing merits impeachment. And though
know that Congress is duty bound to protect the rule of law, many
Democrats in the House oppose beginning impeachment hearings to do so.
These Democrats insist that impeachment would be too divisive, that
Senate Republicans will never vote to remove Donald Trump from office,
and there will be a price to pay for impeachment come Election Day.
Their opposition is based overwhelmingly on political
considerations. Not only is that the wrong framework for making this
decision, these well-meaning Democrats are coming to the wrong
conclusions. Impeachment is not just the right thing to do—it’s
politically smart, too.
REPUBLICANS DIDN’T PAY A POLITICAL PRICE FOR IMPEACHING BILL
CLINTON
Opponents to impeachment like to point to the fact that Republicans
faced a political backlash for impeaching Bill Clinton, and if
Democrats attempt to impeach Mr. Trump today, they will similarly pay a
political price. This argument holds no water.
To start with, Republicans did not suffer significant consequences
after they impeached President Clinton. In the very next election after
impeachment, Republicans maintained their majorities in the House and
Senate, and George W. Bush was able to take the presidency by running
against the scandal by promising to restore “honor
and
dignity
to
the
White House.”
During that campaign, there was far more pressure from reporters on Al
Gore to constantly justify his decision to stand by Bill Clinton than
there was on any Republican to justify their support for impeachment.
The analogy between the two also ignores another critical contrast:
Bill Clinton was popular and Donald Trump is not. From the release of
the Starr Report until Election Day, President Clinton’s approval
ratings never dropped below 63
percent,
and it was above 60 for the entirety of the Lewinksy investigation.
Donald Trump’s average approval ratings, on the other hand, have never
risen above 45
percent. The political implications of impeaching a popular
president will obviously differ from those of impeaching an unpopular
one.
In addition, the public viewed President Clinton’s purported wrongdoing
(lying about an affair) as unrelated to his job and as the culmination
of a six-year partisan campaign to destroy his Presidency. The charges
against Mr. Trump are far more serious—obstructing an investigation
into an attack on the United States.
There is also historical evidence to suggest that impeachment can be
politically advantageous. After Nixon (who was also unpopular)
was
forced
to
resign,
Democrats picked up 49
seats in the House and four
seats in the Senate. And, Jimmy Carter was later able to win the
White House by telling Americans “we
just
want
the
truth
again.”
IMPEACHMENT HEARINGS CAN FOCUS THE PUBLIC’S ATTENTION
Those who are scared of the politics of impeachment also believe it
can’t work. If Senate Republicans will never vote to convict Donald
Trump, their logic goes, what’s the point? They ignore that: (1) the
facts favor impeachment; and (2) televised impeachment hearings put a
spotlight on Mr. Trump’s crimes, which could take control of the
political narrative and sway popular opinion.
When the House Judiciary committee started
considering possibly impeaching Nixon hearings, less than 30
percent supported removing Nixon from office. By the time Nixon
resigned, 57
percent thought he should be removed from office.
Far more Americans support
Mr.
Trump’s
impeachment
right
now—and
within the last year, we’ve already seen those numbers rise following
televised congressional testimony. After Americans watched Michael
Cohen testify under oath before the House Oversight Committee, support
of impeachment rose 6
percent.
Following the Mueller report’s release, 56
percent of Americans now believe Donald Trump or his campaign
committed crimes, and 53
percent
who had heard of the Special Counsel’s report said they thought
Mueller’s team found evidence that Mr. Trump obstructed justice. Still,
the American people do not yet have a full understanding of the crimes,
corruption, and coverups that Donald Trump and his inner circle
orchestrated. CNN found that only three
percent of Americans said that they have read the entire Mueller
report. That suggests we have not reached the ceiling.
Nobody can say with certainty how public opinion will change once
impeachment hearings have commenced or how that will affect our elected
officials, but if Democrats don’t act to take control of the narrative,
Mr. Trump will. This investigation involves everything from
counter-intelligence and foreign business dealings to campaign finance
violations and cover-ups. Instead of relying on evidence coming
haphazardly from various committees, impeachment provides Democrats the
best opportunity to present this evidence in a coherent, compelling
fashion, and more fully control the narrative. The White House will
have a far more difficult time spinning if the American people get to
see and hear everything over the course of a single, neat process,
designed so they can judge for themselves if charges should be adopted.
Impeachment would also put Democrats on a stronger
legal
footing
to get this evidence out to the people than they would be sticking to a
committee process. They’ll need it. Mr. Trump has vowed to stonewall “all”
House
subpoenas
and
thwart
any congressional investigation. His
administration has already refused
to release Mueller’s full report. Delaying an impeachment for further
unspecified investigations allows Mr. Trump to arrive at the election
unsullied and denies Americans access to the evidence Mueller uncovered.
No matter what might happen after an impeachment vote, Americans
deserve to know the full truth before they cast their ballots on
Election Day.
EVEN A FAILED IMPEACHMENT WILL PUT REPUBLICANS ON DEFENSE
Some argue that if the Senate does not convict Mr. Trump, he will claim
vindication and take that as an opening for a victory lap. Knowing
everything we do about Mr. Trump, it’s obvious that he will falsely
claim he’s been cleared of wrongdoing either way. In fact, he already
is. He’s using Attorney General Bill Barr’s summary of the Mueller
report to claim: “No
Collusion,
No
Obstruction,
Complete
and Total EXONERATION.”
Perhaps more important is what would happen if, after the impeachment
process establishes ample grounds for Mr. Trump’s removal, Senate
Republicans stand steadfast by his side. The last two years have shown
that there is a political price for protecting this president. Mr.
Trump was not on the ballot in 2018, but he might as well have been. By
and large, House Democrats ran on a platform
of holding Donald Trump accountable. NBC exit polls showed that 94
percent
of Democrats cast their votes in the House elections as a way to
express opposition to Donald Trump. We have no reason to doubt voters
will continue to hold Republicans accountable if they continue to
protect him and excuse blatant corruption. If Senate Republicans want
to allow an attack on our democracy, then, they should be forced to do
so on the record, and defend that decision for the rest of their
careers.
If the House refuses to impeach Mr. Trump, however, he can say that
everyone—Democrat and Republican alike—agrees he’s innocent. His claim
of exoneration will hold no water, however, if it rests on partisans
like Mitch McConnell.
CONGRESS CANNOT PUT IMPEACHMENT OFF ANY LONGER
Democrats shouldn’t refuse to meet their constitutional responsibility
simply because they assume Republicans will do the same. Even if the
Senate won’t remove Mr. Trump from office, the country cannot afford
setting a precedent that that his actions were unimpeachable. Waiting
for Republican permission means handing control over to them. That
can’t work.
We know with absolute certainty that Donald Trump’s abuse of power and
assault on democracy is not over. If the members of the House of
Representatives do not even try to begin the effort to remove Mr. Trump
from office, each new example of his contempt for the rule of law will
raise more questions about their decision to allow him to remain in
office. And the blame will be shared.
If Americans see Democrats as too scared to act, the party will seem
weak. If they think Democrats are prolonging investigations to score
political points, they will be seen as cynical and uncaring. But, if
voters see Democrats doing their jobs and tackling their constitutional
responsibilities without regard to political cost, voters will reward
them.
DON’T WORRY ABOUT DONALD TRUMP’S BASE
Donald Trump has always been unpopular with the public at large, but he
has always enjoyed strong support among Republicans, and there is no
reason to expect that to change—regardless of what Democrats do. Mr.
Trump only has one trick: base politics. But he plays it well. Refusing
to act out of fear that it might energize a Republican base which will
inevitably be energized anyway only risks de-motivating the Democratic
base.
In 2018, Republican voters turned out to vote despite Trump’s
unpopularity, a rarity for the president’s party in midterm elections.
Republicans turned out 11 million more Republican votes in 2018
than in 2014,
when
Republicans
gained
13
seats in the House. In 2018, Democrats gained 40
seats,
not because Republicans stayed home, but because of massive turnout by
Democrats. Nor has energetic Republican support for Mr. Trump lagged
due to the GOP’s 2018 losses: 89
percent of Republicans currently approve of the job Donald Trump is
doing, and the
interest
his
voters
have
in the 2020 campaign has already reached levels typically seen only
weeks before Election Day. The lesson is simple: even an unpopular
Donald Trump will enjoy strong support and high turnout among
Republican voters.
For Democrats to win in 2020, they must sustain historic turnout
increases among Democratic voters. In 2018,
Democrats
turned
out
25
million more votes than they did in 2014,
while
Republicans
only
managed
11 million more. That’s roughly a 60
percent increase for Democrats.
Research conducted by the Analyst Institute shows that GOTV efforts are
far more effective at winning elections than current persuasion tactics
typically employed by campaigns. Focusing on energizing the Democratic
base, then, will be key to victory—and House Democrats can help that
effort by impeaching Mr. Trump. About 70
percent of Democratic voters favor impeachment. CNN found that
71 percent
of Democrats and Democratic leaning independent voters thought it was
very or somewhat important that the Democratic candidate for president
supports impeachment. Holding Donald Trump accountable could therefore
boost Democratic turnout.
House Democrats know voters are fed up with Washington corruption. If
Democrats stand down in the face of Mr. Trump’s clear abuse of power,
they risk looking like they put politics ahead of cleaning up
Washington. Opposition to Mr. Trump inspired millions to march,
protest, to run for office. The activists, volunteers, and Democratic
voters who delivered a House majority want to see their party standing
up to Donald Trump. We shouldn’t let them down.
IMPEACHMENT WILL NOT TURN OFF INDEPENDENT VOTERS
There’s a debate within the party about how to replicate those numbers
next year. Party leadership side argues that Democrats must focus on
flipping independents and “moderates.” But there
are
fewer
swing
voters
than ever before. Electoral success relies
less and less on persuading voters and more and more on turning out
voters who agree with you.
Josh Kalla of Berkely and David Broockman from Stanford found
that for persuasion to work, it needs to be done far in advance of an
election, and either present new information or information that
reinforces voters’ existing beliefs. These conclusions offer additional
reasons to pursue impeachment.
First, we have more than 18 months until election day, and 75
percent
of Americans have not read any of the redacted Mueller report. Second,
independent voters already have a strong aversion to Donald Trump (41-25).
Polling
shows
they
find
him dishonest
and
arrogant. Even before the Mueller report came out, 60
percent
of independent voters believe that Mr. Trump committed crimes before he
was president, and a plurality thought he committed crimes while in
office.
Again, a comparison to 1998 is useful: Throughout the Lewinsky
investigation, Bill Clinton’s Gallup approval ratings among
independents was comfortably in the 60s.
Mr.
Trump’s
Gallup
approval
among independents have been in the 30s
throughout his presidency.
The electoral importance of independent voters is frequently
overstated, but insofar as their concerns are a priority, Democrats
should understand that they strongly dislike the president. Proving Mr.
Trump is a criminal will only reinforce what they already believe.
DON’T WORRY ABOUT CURRENT POLLING
Those who are skeptical of impeachment argue that there isn’t enough
public support to begin hearings. They point out that only 45
percent support impeaching Donald Trump.
In 2018, millions of Americans turned out to give Congress a mandate to
hold Donald Trump accountable. CNN's exit poll showed that 92
percent
of Democrats supported impeaching Mr. Trump on election day. Since that
time, support for impeachment has run up against opposition from
Democratic leadership. In March, Nancy Pelosi famously said that
impeaching Mr. Trump is “just
not
worth
it,” and that has been attitude from most of the
Democrats who control the House.
The energy and enthusiasm for impeachment will return when our
political leaders stand with the base of Democratic Party. Fortunately,
we are already seeing signs of that happening, with prominent Democrats
such as Elizabeth
Warren, Kamala
Harris, Beto
O’Rourke, Julian
Castro, Pete
Buttigieg, and Alexandria
Ocasio-Cortez
speaking out about Donald Trump’s alarming abuse of power and the need
for Congress to hold him accountable. Their voices are one reason why
support for impeachment has rebounded since the drop following Speaker
Pelosi’s comments.
CONCLUSION
Congress has a constitutional duty to pursue impeachment. It should
stand up to a president who is wholly unfit for office and protect the
rule of law. As Elizabeth Warren has said: “There is no political
inconvenience exception to the Constitution.” Electoral considerations
should not control decisions about removing a president from office.
This matter is too important, and the stakes are too high. But those
who are concerned that there are political dangers to impeachment
should know that there is a greater danger of inaction. The political
arguments against it are fundamentally flawed. Ultimately, it offers
Democrats a chance to better control the narrative, put Republicans on
the defensive, and can put this issue to rest sooner rather than later.
Pursuing impeachment is not just the right thing to do,
it’s good politics. It is time that Congress impeach Donald Trump.
###
Need to Impeach
Steyer launched Need to Impeach on October 20, 2017 to raise the voices
of people across the country who recognize the urgency of removing the
most reckless and lawless president in history. Need to Impeach now has
more than 8 million supporters and is growing by up to 30,000
people
each day, making it one of the largest political lists in the United
States. In 2019, Need to Impeach is organizing its supporters across
the country to hold their representatives accountable and demand that
Congress begin impeachment proceedings immediately.
Preview YouTube video Connie: "I want someone who's honest