100 Days Until Election Day

Office of the Director of National Intelligence
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
ODNI News Release No. 28-20
July 24, 2020

Statement by NCSC Director William Evanina: 100 Days Until Election 2020

Election security remains a top priority for the Intelligence Community and we are committed in our support to DHS and FBI, given their leadership roles in this area. In recent months, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) has been providing robust intelligence-based briefings on election security to the presidential campaigns, political committees, and Congressional audiences. In leading these classified briefings, I have worked to ensure fidelity, accountability, consistency and transparency with these stakeholders and presented the most timely and accurate information we have to offer.
 
With just over 100 days until the election, it is imperative that we also share insights with the American public about foreign threats to our election and offer steps to citizens across the country to build resilience and help mitigate these threats. We will strive to update Americans on the evolving election threat landscape, while also safeguarding our intelligence sources and methods.
 
Today, we see our adversaries seeking to compromise the private communications of U.S. political campaigns, candidates and other political targets. Our adversaries also seek to compromise our election infrastructure, and we continue to monitor malicious cyber actors trying to gain access to U.S. state and federal networks, including those responsible for managing elections. However, the diversity of election systems among the states, multiple checks and redundancies in those systems, and post-election auditing all make it extraordinarily difficult for foreign adversaries to broadly disrupt or change vote tallies without detection.
 
In addition, foreign nations continue to use influence measures in social and traditional media in an effort to sway U.S. voters’ preferences and perspectives, to shift U.S. policies, to increase discord and to undermine confidence in our democratic process. The coronavirus pandemic and recent protests, for instance, continue to serve as fodder for foreign influence and disinformation efforts in America.
 
At this time, we’re primarily concerned with China, Russia and Iran -- although other nation states and non-state actors could also do harm to our electoral process. Our insights and judgments will evolve as the election season progresses.

  • China is expanding its influence efforts to shape the policy environment in the United States, pressure political figures it views as opposed to China’s interests, and counter criticism of China. Beijing recognizes its efforts might affect the presidential race.
  • Russia’s persistent objective is to weaken the United States and diminish our global role. Using a range of efforts, including internet trolls and other proxies, Russia continues to spread disinformation in the U.S. that is designed to undermine confidence in our democratic process and denigrate what it sees as an anti-Russia “establishment” in America.
  • Iran seeks to undermine U.S. democratic institutions and divide the country in advance of the elections. Iran’s efforts center around online influence, such as spreading disinformation on social media and recirculating anti-U.S. content.
 
The American public has a role to play in securing the election, particularly in maintaining vigilance against foreign influence. At the most basic level, we encourage Americans to consume information with a critical eye, check out sources before reposting or spreading messages, practice good cyber hygiene and media literacy, and report suspicious election-related activity to authorities.
 
As Americans, we are all in this together; our elections should be our own. Foreign efforts to influence or interfere with our elections are a direct threat to the fabric of our democracy. Neutralizing these threats requires not just a whole-of-government approach, but a whole-of-nation effort. Over the next 100 days, we will continue to update the American public and other key stakeholders on threats to the election and steps for mitigation.


Democratic National Committee
July 26, 2020

DNC on 100 Days to the General Election


Democratic National Committee Chair Tom Perez released the following statement marking 100 days until the 2020 presidential election:

“We are 100 days from the most important election of our lifetimes, and the choice ahead of us couldn’t be clearer. For nearly four years, Donald Trump has broken one promise after another, leaving working families to pick up the pieces. His incompetence allowed this pandemic to spiral out of control, cost nearly 150,000 lives, and sparked the most devastating economic meltdown since the Great Depression. 

“We need a president with the experience, mettle, and empathy to lead us out of this unprecedented crisis — a leader of character and compassion. Now more than ever, we need Joe Biden in the White House.

“Joe Biden has spent more than half a century standing up for those who need it the most – for the union worker fighting for a better wage, for the student marching to end gun violence, for the woman working to stop domestic abuse, for the peaceful protestor speaking out against police brutality, for the LGBTQ+ activist pushing for the full equality they deserve, for the Dreamer building a life in the country they call home. And he will continue to be their champion in the Oval Office.

“But this election is about more than Joe Biden and Donald Trump. It’s also about two competing visions of America. When Trump launched his campaign 5 years ago, it began a dark era for our country. But in November, we will begin a new era – an era of justice and equality for all, economic prosperity and opportunity for all; an era of bold American leadership that tackles the existential threat of climate change; an era where our nation’s strength is not defined by the size of our tanks or the beating of our chests but by the compassion and dignity we show each other and the world. Those are the American people’s values. Those are the Democratic Party’s values. And those are the values that must win out on Election Day.

“That’s why Democrats aren’t taking anything for granted. Across the country, we’ve made historic, early investments in the organizing, communications, and voter protection infrastructure we’ll need to elect Vice President Biden alongside Democrats up and down the ballot. With 100 days left, the Democratic Party is energized, united, and prepared to bring an end to the most disastrous presidency in our history.”

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Perez On 100 Days Out

Democrats are “Organizing Everywhere...We Are Not Wasting A Moment.” 

This weekend on MSNBC, DNC Chair Tom Perez laid out the Democrats' approach 100 days out from the election: organize everywhere, take nothing for granted and reach every voter we need to win.
Tom Perez: “The best antidote to all this fearmongering from Donald Trump is for us to turn out, to turn out in force like we have done in the primaries -- that’s exactly what we’re doing in the Democratic Party. This is another Weekend of Action, where we are going across the country in these critical battleground states, we take nothing for granted. We’re organizing everywhere, and voters understand that this president has put their lives at risk, he’s put their jobs at risk, he has upended the guardrails of democracy. And what I think the best thing that we can do as Democrats, Independents, former Party of Lincoln Republicans, is come out, vote in force...we’ve got 15 Sundays until the election. We are not wasting a moment.”
And across the battlegrounds, Democratic enthusiasm -- coupled with the hard and effective organizing work -- is leading Democrats to crush Republicans in key metrics like registration, participation and . See for yourself:



  • (FL) POLITICO: Florida Democrats gain vote-by-mail advantage. “The reason for the success is twofold. Democrats have put heightened emphasis on getting more people to cast ballots from home, an effort that preceded the onset of the coronavirus pandemic. And Trump has demonized this type of voting so much that Republicans, who once dominated mail-in ballots, are souring on it.”


 
 
 
  • (NV) This Is Reno: Head Count: Registered Washoe County Democrats outnumber Republicans. “Washoe County, notoriously a swing county in a swing state, has officially gone from having a Republican voter registration advantage to a Democratic advantage for the first time since 2010. Statistics from the Washoe County Registrar of Voter’s office show voters registered as Democrats now top registered Republicans in the county.”
 
      [tweet from NC Democratic Party]

 
 
 
 
 
 
  • (WI) WPR: Despite Obstacles, Democratic Turnout Surged In Wisconsin Supreme Court Race. “Karofsky cut into Kelly's numbers in Waukesha, Washington and Ozaukee counties compared to the 2019 Supreme Court race that sent conservative Justice Brian Hagedorn to the bench. She also won Brown, Outagamie and Winnebago counties in east-central Wisconsin. All three were won by Hagedorn in 2019, Walker in 2018 and President Donald Trump in 2016.”

American Bridge 21st Century

MEMO 

TO: Interested Parties

FROM: Bradley Beychok, President, American Bridge 21st Century 

DATE: July 26, 2020

RE: State of the Race — 100 Days

Introduction

Donald Trump is in trouble. With 100 days until Election Day, Trump has never been weaker with the very voters in the critical swing states he cannot win without. The impact of American Bridge 21st Century’s efforts to target persuadable white-working class, rural, and senior Trump 2016 voters across Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan can be seen not only in the president’s erosion of support with these groups, but also in their decisive swing towards Joe Biden. But a lot can change in 100 days, however, so we are doubling down on what has proved to be a successful strategy. Our plan is to keep our foot on the gas until polls close on November 3rd. 

Background

Before American Bridge 21st Century launched our first ever major paid media campaign, we asked ourselves a fundamental question: what is the single most effective way to eliminate Donald Trump’s path to 270 electoral votes? After exhaustive research, polling and testing, we concluded that the best way to win back the White House was a targeted campaign aimed at a narrow but decisive slice of the electorate: persuadable white working-class, rural voters and seniors in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin who supported President Obama in 2012 before flipping to support Trump in 2016. 

In 2016, Donald Trump won Pennsylvania by approximately 44,000 votes, Wisconsin by less than 23,000, and Michigan by 11,000, largely by running up margins with white working-class voters. Democrats struck back in 2018, winning statewide races 

across these states largely by winning back some of these same voters. We realized early that replicating that 2018 performance in these three swing states was critical to blocking Trump’s path to victory in 2020. 

Our Work

Our research indicated that the best way to earn the support of these voters was not through flashy ads or vicious attacks on Donald Trump. Instead, the most effective tactic was elevating the voices and stories of people just like them: 2016 Trump voters who have grown tired of a chaotic, reckless president and are looking for a change. The goal was to communicate that not only were they not alone in regretting their vote, but the feeling was common and socially acceptable to give voice to. 

Last November, American Bridge 21st Century laid down our first big bet. Following substantial on-the-ground outreach efforts to identify and recruit former Trump voters in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, we launched an 8-figure TV, radio, and digital ad campaign that features local residents telling their stories and explaining why they were abandoning Trump and supporting Joe Biden. These testimonials connected Trump’s dishonesty and divisiveness with the real-world impact his failure of leadership was having on their lives, and layered in a focus on his mismanagement of the coronavirus pandemic starting in the spring of this year.

Our Results

Our investment is paying off. Our ads are proving to be among the most effective in moving voter sentiment away from Trump and towards Joe Biden, according to a recent analysis from Civis Analytics. Not only does recent polling show Trump behind by double digits in these three states, but also that his support with the specific voters American Bridge 21st Century is targeting has cratered. 

Recent Monmouth polling shows Trump’s lead with white voters without a college degree in Pennsylvania is half that of his 2016 margin. Further, Trump’s 10-point lead with seniors in 2016 has reversed, with Biden now carrying the group by 10 points. In Michigan, Trump’s lead with white voters without a college degree has dropped by 31 percentage points over Clinton to just 10 percentage points over Biden. The former Vice President leads with Michigan seniors by 12 points in a recent CNN poll — a 16 point swing towards the Democrats. Similarly, after Trump won Wisconsin seniors by 1 point in 2016, Biden has built up a 19-point lead in a recent New York Times poll. 

After a record-breaking second fundraising quarter, we’re doubling down on this strategy, expanding our efforts to identify more persuadable targets and ensuring that Democrats match or exceed Trump’s spending in these states.

A Look Ahead

At the moment, the map looks favorable. But we recognize that the stakes are far too high for us to get complacent. As the last few months have underscored, 100 days is a long time in politics and no one knows what tomorrow, let alone October, will bring. 

Thankfully, we know our message, our strategy, and our candidate is moving the needle in the places and with the voters who can eliminate Trump’s path to 270 electoral votes. Over the next 14 weeks, Democrats must continue to pour it on, keeping Trump on defense and forcing his campaign to further spread their resources across an expanding map. We must run like we’re behind until we run through the tape, and we will.