P2020 « 2018 Midterm Elections « U.S. House Races, 2017-18

INTRODUCTION: THE BLUE WAVE HITS   |   SPECIAL ELECTIONS 2017-18   |   RUNNING FOR OTHER OFFICE   |   DEFEATED IN PRIMARY   |  NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION   |   DEFEATED ON NOV. 6   |   NOT RETURNING AS OF OCT. 2018   |  PRIMARY DATES

Cycle	Before Election Day	Def. in Primary	Def. in General	Freshman Class	After Election Day	Net Gain
2006	229R, 201D, 1I, 4v	2 (1D, 1R)	22 (0D, 22R)	55 (42D, 13R)	234D, 201R	31D
2008	235D, 199R, 1v	4 (1D, 3R)	19 (5D, 14R)	54 (32D, 22R)	257D, 178R	21D
2010	255D, 178R, 2v	4 (2D, 2R)	54 (52D, 2R)	96 (8D, 88R)	242R, 193D	63R
2012	240R, 190D, 5v	13 (7D, 6R)	27 (10D,17R)	84 (49D, 35R)	233R, 200D, 2v	6D
2014	233R, 199D, 3v	5 (1D, 4R)	14 (11D, 3R)	61 (17D, 44R)	247R, 188D	9R
2016	246R, 186D, 3v	5 (2D, 3R)	7 (1D, 6R)	55 (27D, 28R)	241R, 194D	5D
2018	235R, 193D, 7v	4 (2D, 2R)	30 (30R, 0D)	89 (59D, 29R, 1*)	235D, 199R, 1v	40D

The Blue Wave Hits

Overview:  Democrats achieved a net gain of 40 seats, their biggest success since the 1974 election.  Cook Political Report's excellent House Popular Vote Tracker shows that Democratic House candidates tallied 60.7 million votes (53.4%) compared to 51.0 million (44.8%) for Republican candidates and 2.0 million for others (1.7%).  The Democratic margin of 8.6% was their biggest since the post-Watergate election of 1974, and was bigger that the wave elections of 2006 (D-8.0%), 1994 (R-7.1%) and 2010 (R-6.8%).  Thirty incumbent Republicans were defeated, but not a single Democrat.  Democratic gains appeared more modest on Election Night, but a series of close races were called their way over the next several weeks.  In California, for example, it initially looked like Republicans might hold on to some of the seats Democrats had targeted, but as the votes were counted, seat after seat slipped away, culminating in TJ Cox's win in CA-21.  Republicans lost seven seats including all five Orange County area seats. 

The big story in the 2018 elections for the U.S. House was the number of women candidates.  Data from the Center for American Women and Politics (CAWP) at Rutgers shows that a record number of women, 476, filed as major party candidates for the U.S. House (356D, 120R); the previous record was 298 in 2012.  Significantly Democratic women candidates outnumbered Republicans by almost three to one.  Women candidates enjoyed considerable success in the primaries.  CAWP figures show 235 women won their primaries compared to 231 who lost.  Women candidates achieved several big primary upsets over incumbents.  Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D) defeated 10-term Rep. Joe Crowley (NY-14), chairman of the House Democratic Caucus, in the June 26 primary; Ocasio-Cortez ran to the left of Crowley.  Rep. Mike Capuano (MA-7), another 10-term congressman, lost to Boston City Councilwoman Ayanna Pressley (D) in the Sept. 4 primary.  Earlier, on June 12, state Rep. Katie Arrington (R) defeated veteran Rep. Mark Sanford (SC-1), who was not sufficiently pro-Trump for voters of the district (Arrington lost in the general election). 

Heading into Election Day, November 6, two hundred and thirty three (233) major party woman candidates for U.S. House were on the ballot (181D, 52R) including 116 challengers (94D, 22R), 46 open seat candidates (33D, 13R) and 71 incumbents (54D, 17R).  The freshman class of 89 includes 36 women (35D, 1R).  The proportion of women will increase from an abysmal 19.3% in the 115th Congress to a still-needs-a-lot-of-work 23.4% in the 116th.  Diversity is also increasing; five new Black congresswomen were elected in 2018: Jahana Hayes (CT), Lucy McBath (GA), Lauren Underwood (IL), Ayanna Pressley (MA) and Ilhan Omar (MN) as were five new Latina congresswoman: Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (FL), Xochitl Torres Small (NM), Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (NY), Sylvia Garcia (TX) and Veronica Escobar (TX) (+).  Other firsts include the first Native American women to be elected (Debra Haaland (NM) and Sharice Davids (KS) and the first Muslim women.  In OK-5 (Oklahoma City), Kendra Horn (D) pulled off an upset, defeating U.S. Rep. Steve Russell (R).  One group that did not fare well was Republican women; due to retirements and defeats they will number just 13 in the 116th Congress, down from 23 (+).

Democratic candidates enjoyed a significant financial advantage.  According to the Center for Responsive Politics' Open Secrets 2,897 candidates running for U.S. House raised $1.675 billion and spent $1.616 billion; 1,507 Democrats raised $1.011 billion and spent $955.4 billion compared to $659.1 billion and $656.0 billion for 1,217 Republicans.  A USA Today analysis of Open Secrets data on itemized contributions to competitive Democratic candidates found that there was a "Trump effect" in that many of these candidates benefited from out of state contributions.1  On top of all the money raised and spent by the candidate committees, outside groups were key players.  In many races outside groups spent more than the candidate committees.  According to Open Secrets, the 2017 special election in GA-06 remains most expensive House race ever ($82 million), but six races in 2018 came in at over $30 million (candidate plus outside spending): CA-39, CA-48, WA-08, NY-19 and PA-01 and CA-25.

An interesting situation occurred in Pennsylvania where on Jan. 22, 2018 (less than four months before the primary) the state Supreme Court found that the congressional district lines violated the Pennsylvania constitution and a new plan had to be adopted (+).  When the state legislature and governor failed to submit a plan by Feb. 15, the Court on Feb. 19 issued  a remedial plan under which the 2018 congressional elections are being conducted.  On Aug. 27, 2018 a federal court ruled that North Carolina congressional districts must be redrawn, but a three judge panel ruled on Sept. 4 that it was too late to change the boundaries before the November elections.

Re-election prospects of two Republican congressmen were complicated by indictments—Rep. Chris Collins (NY) on Aug. 10 for insider trading and Rep. Duncan Hunter (CA) and his wife on Aug. 21 for misusing campaign funds.  Both remain on the ballot; Collins had announced on Aug. 11 that he would not seek re-election, but New York law made it very difficult to replace him on the ballot, and on Sept. 17 he reversed course and said he would actively campaign and serve if re-elected.  Both were re-elected.

Note.
1. Maureen Groppe and Christopher Schnaars.  "Trump effect: How out-of-state money fueled Democratic House wins in 2018."  USA Today, Dec. 29, 2018. 


Links:  DCCC [Organization]  |   NRCC [Organization]  |   FEC 
Key Super PACs: 
D - House Majority PAC
R - Congressional Leadership Fund
U.S. House of Representatives: Member Data

seven seats will be vacant to Nov. 2018:
West Virginia 3 (southern WV incl. Huntington 1, 2)
Rep. Evan Jenkins (R), first elected Nov. 2014, announced on Sept. 27, 2018 that he would resign effective Sept. 30, 2018 to take a seat on the state Supreme Court of Appeals.  Earlier Jenkins unsuccessfully sought the U.S. Senate nomination.

Florida 6 (south of Jacksonville including Daytona Beach 1, 2)
Rep. Ron DeSantis (R), first elected Nov. 2012. announced on Sept. 10, 2018 that he was resigning effective Sept. 1, 2018 to focus on his campaign for governor.

Pennsylvania 7 (convoluted horseshoe-shaped district between Philadelphia and Reading +).  Special election Nov. 6, 2018.
Rep. Patrick Meehan (R), first elected Nov. 2010, had announced on Jan. 25, 2018 that he would not be seeking re-election then abruptly resigned Apr. 27, 2018.

Pennsylvania 15 (runs from East of Harrisburg to Allentown area +).  Special election Nov. 6, 2018.
Rep. Charlie Dent (R), first elected Nov. 2004, announced on Sept. 7, 2017 that he would retire, and then announced on April 17, 2018 that he would resign in May; he resigned effective May 12, 2018.

• Michigan 13 (parts of Detroit and suburbs, all in Wayne Co. +) ...Special election primary Aug. 7; general election Nov. 6, 2018.
  
• Rep. John Conyers (D), first elected Nov. 1964, abruptly resigned effective Dec. 5, 2017 following charges of sexual harrassment.  At the time he was 88 years old and the longest current serving member of the House.

• Oklahoma 1 (Tulsa metro area +).  June 26, 2018 primary; general election Nov. 6, 2018.
  On Sept. 2, 2017 President Trump nominated Rep. Jim Bridenstine (R), first elected Nov. 2012, to be NASA administrator.  (Bridenstine had announced in 2015 that he would not seek another term).  The nomination was controversial and the confirmation process dragged on for months; the full Senate finally confirmed him on April 19, 2018 by a 50-49 party line vote.  Bridenstine resigned effective April 23, 2018 and was sworn in as NASA administrator.
  
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• New York 25 (Rochester +).  June 26, 2018 primary; general election Nov. 6, 2018.
• Rep. Louise Slaughter (D), first elected Nov. 1986, died Mar. 16, 2018.
  
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there have been 10 special elections since Nov. 2016:
Ohio 12 (north and east of Columbus)  ...Special election primary May 8; general election Aug. 7, 2018. 
Rep. Pat Tiberi (R), first elected Nov. 2000, announced on Oct. 19, 2017 that he will leave Congress before Jan. 31, 2018 to lead the Ohio Business Roundtable; resigned effective Jan. 16, 2018.  State Sen. Troy Balderson (R) emerged from the May 8 primary and defeated Franklin County Recorder Danny O'Connor (D) by less than one percentage point; Joe Manchik (G) was also on the ballot.

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• Texas 27 (Gulf Coast from Corpus Christi and area to Matagorda Co. +) ...Special election on June 30, 2018.
  
• Rep. Blake Farenthold (R), first elected Nov. 2010, faced sexual harrassment charges; he had planned to serve out his term but abruptly resigned effective April 6, 2018.  Nine candidates are running including the four already competing for the seat in the May 22 runoffs (Republicans Bech Bruun and Michael Cloud and Democrats Raul "Roy" Barrera and Eric Holguin).  Michael Cloud (R), small businessman who served for seven years as chair of the Victoria County Republican Party won with about 54%; If no candidate had received a majority there would have been a runoff.

• Arizona 8 (suburbs north and west of Phoenix +) ...Special election primary Feb. 27; general election Apr. 24, 2018.
  
• Rep. Trent Franks (R), first elected Nov. 2002, announced on Dec. 7, 2017 that he would resign effective Jan. 31, 2018; he cited "discussion of surrogacy with two previous female subordinates, making each feel uncomfortable" and was facing an ethics investigation.  On Dec. 8 he changed course and announced he was resigning that day.  Former state legislator Debbie Lesko (R) defeated Hiral Tipirneni (D), a physician.
  

• Pennsylvania 18 (western PA including south Pittsburgh suburbs +)  ...Nominees chosen by party state central committees at nominating conventions in Nov. 2017.  Special election Mar. 13, 2018.
  Rep. Tim Murphy (R), first elected Nov. 2002, resigned effective Oct. 21, 2017 due to scandal over affair.  Former federal prosecutor and veteran Conor Lamb (D) edged out a win over State Rep. Rick Saccone (R) (who had been running for U.S. Senate) by about 700 votes.
  
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• Utah 3 (SE corner extending up towards Salt Lake City) ...Special election Nov. 7, 2017.
  Rep. Jason Chaffetz (R), first elected Nov. 2008, announced on May 19 that he would resign effective June 30, 2017; he signed to become an analyst with Fox News.  Mayor of Provo John Curtis (R) defeated Kathie Allen (D) and Jim Bennett (UU) by 58.1% to 25.9% and 9.2%; sworn in on Nov. 13, 2017.
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• California 34 (neighborhoods in Central, East and Northeast L.A.) ...Special election June 6, 2017.
  Rep. Xavier Becerra (D), first elected Nov. 1992, resigned effective Jan. 24, 2017; Gov. Jerry Brown announced on Dec. 1, 2016 he would appoint Becerra as Attorney General.  Jimmy Gomez (D) emerged from a crowded primary and defeated Robert Lee Ahn (D); sworn in on July 11, 2017.
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• Georgia 6 (northern suburbs of Atlanta) ...April 18, 2017 primary.  Special election June 20, 2017.
  Rep. Tom Price (R), first elected Nov. 2004, was nominated by President-elect Trump as HHS Secretary and resigned effective Feb. 10, 2017.  Former Sec. of State and Senior VP at Komen Karen Handel (R) defeated former congressional staffer and small businessman Jon Ossoff (D) by 51.9% to 48.1%; sworn in on June 26.  This was the most expensive U.S. House race in history.


• South Carolina 5 (north central including Rock Hill) ...May 16, 2017 GOP runoff.  Special election June 20, 2017.
  Rep. Mick Mulvaney (R), first elected Nov. 2010, nominated by President-elect Trump as OMB Director and resigned effective Feb. 16, 2017.  Commercial real estate developer and state Rep. Ralph Norman (R) defeated Archie Parnell (D), a senior advisor to Goldman Sachs, by 51.1% to 47.9%; sworn in on June 26.


• Montana AL ...Special election May 25, 2017.
  Rep. Ryan Zinke (R), first elected Nov. 2014, was nominated by President-elect Trump as Interior Secretary and resigned effective Mar. 1, 2017.  Entrepreneur and 2016 gubernatorial nominee Greg Gianforte (R) defeated musician Rob Quist (D) by 50.2% to 44.1%; sworn in on June 21.
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• Kansas 4 (south central including Wichita) ...GOP nominating convention Feb. 9.  Special election April 11, 2017. 
  Rep. Mike Pompeo (R), first elected Nov. 2010, was nominated by President-elect Trump as CIA director and resigned effective Jan. 23, 2017.  State Treasurer Ron Estes (R) defeated attorney and veteran James Thompson (D) by 52.2% to 46.0%; sworn in on April 25.
  

Running for Other Office  (22 - 13R, 9D)

Of the 22 seeking other office 10 succeeded, 6 lost in primaries, 5 lost in the general election, and one remained tbd.

11 for U.S. Senate (8R, 3D)	R: McSally (AZ), Messer (IN), Rokita (IN), Cramer (ND), Renacci (OH), Barletta (PA), Blackburn (TN), Jenkins (WV).  D: Sinema (AZ), Rosen (NV), O'Rourke (TX).
9 for Governor (5R, 4D)	R: DeSantis (FL), Labrador (ID), Pearce (NM), Renacci (OH), Noem (SD), Black (TN). D: Polis (CO), Hanabusa (HI), Walz (MN), Lujan Grisham (NM).
1 for Attorney Gen'l (1D)	D: Ellis (MN).
1 for President	D: Delaney (MD).

* Renacci was initially a candidate for Governor but switched to running for U.S. Senate on Jan. 11, 2018.

June 5, 2018 - Rep. Keith Ellison (D, MN-5 ...eastern Hennepin Co. (Minneapolis) and parts of Anoka and Ramsey Cos. 1) - first elected Nov. 2006.  Attorney General   ...won Aug. 14 primary, elected Nov. 6

Feb. 16, 2018 - Rep. Kevin Cramer (R- ND-AL ...1, 2) - first elected Nov. 2012.  Senate   ...won June 12 primary, elected Nov. 6

Jan. 8, 2018 - Rep. Ron DeSantis (R, FL-6 ...south of Jacksonville including Daytona Beach 1, 2) - first elected Nov. 2012.  Governor
...won Aug. 28 primary, elected Nov. 6

Nov. 7, 2017 - Rep. Martha McSally (R, AZ-2 ...SE corner of the state including much of Tucson 1, 2) - first elected Nov. 2014.  reported running for U.S. Senate.  ...won Aug. 28 primary, defeated Nov. 6

Oct. 5, 2017 - Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R, TN-7 ... in the western part of the state between Memphis and Nashville; from KY in the north to MS and AL in the south 1, 2)  - first elected Nov. 2002.  U.S. Senate   ...won Aug. 2 primary, elected Nov. 6

Sept. 28, 2017 - Rep. Krysten Sinema (D, AZ-9 ...parts of Maricopa Co. including Tempe and southern Phoenix 1, 2) - first elected Nov. 2012.  U.S. Senate.  ..won Aug. 28 primary, elected Nov. 6

Sept. 1, 2017 - Rep. Colleen Hanabusa (D, HI-1 ...Honolulu and area 1, 2) - elected in a Nov. 8, 2016 special election to fill out the term of Rep. Mark Takai and sworn in on Nov. 14; she was as well elected to a full term.  She previously served two terms, being elected in Nov. 2010 and 2012.  Governor.   ...lost Aug. 11 primary

Aug. 29, 2017 - Rep. Lou Barletta (R, PA-11 ...East central Pennsylvania 1, 2) - first elected Nov. 2010.  U.S. Senate  ...won May 15 primary, defeated Nov. 6

Aug. 8, 2017 - Rep. Todd Rokita (R, IN-4 ...West central Indiana from Indianapolis suburbs to Illinois border 1, 2) - first elected Nov. 2010.  U.S. Senate   ...lost May 8 primary

Aug. 2, 2017 - Rep. Diane Black (R, TN-6 ...North central TN on the border with KY 1, 2) - first elected Nov. 2010.  Governor   ...lost Aug. 2 primary

July 28, 2017 - Rep. John Delaney (D, MD-6 ...Western MD 1, 2) - first elected Nov. 2012.  President

July 26, 2017 - Rep. Luke Messer (R, IN-6 ...East central and southern Indiana to Ohio border 1, 2) - first elected Nov. 2012.  U.S. Senate   ...lost May 8 primary

July 10, 2017 - Rep. Steve Pearce (R, NM-2 ...southern half of NM incl. a quarter of Albuquerque - elected Nov. 2010, previously served three terms, elected in 2002, '04 and '06.  Governor   ...uncontested in June 5 primary, defeated Nov. 6

July 6, 2017 - Rep. Jacky Rosen (D, NV-3 ...South of Las Vegas including Henderson 1, 2) - first elected Nov. 2016.  U.S. Senate  ...won June 12 primary, elected Nov. 6

June 11, 2017 - Rep. Jared Polis (D, CO-2 ...North Central; Denver suburbs to Wyoming border 1, 2) - first elected Nov. 2008.  Governor   ...won June 26 primary, elected Nov. 6

May 9, 2017 - Rep. Raúl Labrador (R, ID-1 ...western third of the state from Nevada to Canada 1, 2) - first elected Nov. 2010.  Governor  ...lost May 15 primary

May 8, 2017 - Rep. Evan Jenkins (R, WV-3 ...southern WV incl. Huntington 1, 2) - first elected Nov. 2014.  U.S. Senate   ...lost May 8 primary

Mar. 29/31, 2017 - Rep. Beto O'Rouke (D, TX-16 ...El Paso, the western tip of TX 1, 2) first elected Nov. 2012.  U.S. Senate   ...won Mar. 6 primary, defeated Nov. 6

Mar. 27, 2017 - Rep. Tim Walz (D, MN-1 ...Southern MN from SD in the West to WI in the East 1, 2) - first elected Nov. 2006.  Governor   ...won Aug. 14 primary, elected Nov. 6

Mar. 20, 2017 - Rep. Jim Renacci (R, OH-16 ...Akron area and western suburbs of Cleveland 1, 2) - first elected Nov. 2010.  Governor ...switched Jan. 11 to run for U.S. Senate  ...won May 8 primary, defeated Nov. 6

Dec. 13, 2016 - Rep. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D, NM-1 ...central NM incl. much of Albuquerque 1, 2) - first elected Nov. 2010.  Governor   ...won June 5 primary, elected Nov. 6

Nov. 14, 2016 - Rep. Kristi Noem (R, SD-AL ...1, 2) - first elected Nov. 2010.  Governor   ...won June 5 primary, elected Nov. 6

Cycle		Running for Sen./ Success	Running for Gov./ Success	Run Tot./  Success
2006		7 (4D, 2R, 1I) 3 (2D, 0R, 1I)	9 (2D, 7R)  3 (1D, 2R)	16 (6D, 9R, 1I)   6 (3D, 2R, 1I)
2008		5 (3D, 2R)  2 (2D, 0R)	1 (0D, 1R) 0 (0D, 0R)	6 (3D, 3R)   2 (2D, 0R)
2010		9 (4D, 5R) 3 (0D, 3R)	9 (3D, 6R) 3 (1D, 2R)	19 (7D, 12R)   7 (1D, 6R)
2012		11 (6D, 5R)  6 (5D, 1R)	2 (1D, 1R) 2 (1D, 1R)	13 (7D, 6R)   8 (6D, 2R)
2014		13 (3D, 10R)  7 (1D, 6R)	2 (2D, 0R) 0 (0D, 0R)	16 (6D, 10R)   7 (1D, 6R)
2016		12 (7D, 5R)  3 (2D, 1R)	1 (1D, 0R) 1 (1D, 0R)	14 (9D, 5R)   5 (4D, 1R)
2018		11 (3D, 8R)   4 (2D, 2R)	9 (4D, 5R) 5 (3D, 2R)	22 (9D, 13R) 10 (6D, 4R) Delaney tbd

Notes:
In the chart above, "Running for..." columns have two rows; the top row is candidates and lower row is successful candidates.  These numbers do not include Members who announce for another office but later decide to end those campaigns and seek to stay in the House. 

"Run total" occasionally includes other offices besides U.S. Senate and Governor.  In 2010 Adam Putnam (R-FL) ran for Commissioner of Agriculture and won, in 2011/12 Ron Paul (R-TX) ran for President, in 2014 Gloria Negrete McLeod (D-CA) ran for County Supervisor and lost, and in 2016 Janice Hahn (D-CA) ran for County Supervisor and won.  In 2018 Keith Ellison (D-MN) won in his bid for Attorney General, while John Delaney (D-MD)'s run for president is ongoing.

Looking at these six cycles, one sees 57 Members ran for Senate and 24 were successful, while 24 Members ran for Governor and 9 were successful.

Defeated in Primary (2R, 2D)

Sept. 4, 2018 - Rep. Michael Capuano (D, MA-7 ...half of the City of Boston 1) - first elected Nov. 1998. ...lost to Boston City Councilwoman Ayanna Pressley (D)

Jun. 26, 2018 - Rep. Joe Crowley (D, NY-14 ...eastern Bronx and north-central Queens 1, 2) - first elected Nov. 1998. ...lost to businesswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D), who emphasized her working class roots and progressive positions; Crowley also skipped a couple of debates.

Jun. 12, 2018 - Rep Mark Sanford (R, SC-1 ...the Lowcountry; Hilton Head to mid-coastal South Carolina 1, 2) - elected in May 7, 2013 special election; also served three terms from 1995-2001.  ...critic of Trump, lost to state Rep. Katie Arrington (R)

May 7, 2018 - Rep. Robert Pittenger (R, NC-9 ...south-central NC 1, 2) - first elected Nov. 2012.  ...lost to Rev. Mark Harris (R) in a rematch of 2016.

Not Seeking Re-election–Retiring at End of Term (32 - 23R, 9D)*

*in addition there were 4R who had said they would not be seeking re-election in 2018, but then left before the end of the term.

More than twice as many Republican Members as Democrats retired.  In addition to Speaker Paul Ryan (+), nine of 21 committee chairs were leaving: Frelinghuysen (Appropriations), Black* (Budget), Hensarling (Financial Services), Royce (Foreign Affairs), Harper (House Administration), Goodlatte (Judiciary), Gowdy (Oversight and Government Reform), Smith (Science, Space and Technology), and Shuster (Transportation and Infrastructure).  Allegations of sexual misconduct prompted several resignations and retirements.
*Black stepped down as committee chair at the end of Dec. 2017 to focus on her campaign for governor.

May 28, 2018 - Rep. Tom Garrett (R, VA-5 ...large district in the central third of the state running north to south 1, 2) - first elected Nov. 2016.  (5th CD Republican Committee chose Denver Riggleman as the new nominee).

Apr. 11, 2018 - Rep. Paul Ryan (R, WI-1 ...SE corner of the state 1, 2) - first elected Nov. 1998.

Apr. 11, 2018 - Rep. Dennis Ross (R, FL-15 ...northern parts of Hillsborough and Polk Counties 1, 2) - first elected Nov. 2010.

Apr. 2, 2018 - Rep. Elizabeth Esty (D, CT-5 ...northwestern CT 1, 2) - first elected Nov. 2012.

Mar. 25, 2018 - Rep. Ryan Costello (R, PA-6 ...old district: north and west of Philadelphia 1, 2) - first elected Nov. 2014.

Feb. 19, 2018 - Rep. Tom Rooney (R, FL-17 ...central FL, east of Tampa Bay to west of Lake Okeechobee 1, 2) - first elected Nov. 2008.

Feb. 9, 2018 - Rep. Rick Nolan (D, MN-8 ...Northeast MN including Duluth 1, 2) - elected Nov. 2012; previously served three terms, elected Nov. 1974.  [announced on June 4, runnig for lt. gov. on ticket with AG Lori Swanson]

Jan. 31, 2018 - Rep. Trey Gowdy (R, SC-4 ...Greenville/Spartanburg area 1, 2) - first elected Nov. 2010.

Jan. 31, 2018 - Rep. Robert Brady (D, PA-1 ...central and South Philadelphia and parts of Delaware Co. 1, 2) - first elected in May 19, 1998 special election.

Jan. 29, 2018 - Rep. Rodney Frelinghuysen (R-11 ... in northern NJ; parts of Morris, Essex, Sussex and Passaic Counties 1, 2) - first elected Nov. 1994.

Jan. 25, 2018 - Rep. Patrick Meehan (R, PA-7 ...convoluted horseshoe-shaped district between Philadelphia and Reading 1, 2) - first elected Nov. 2010.  resigned Apr. 27, 2018

Jan. 10, 2018 - Rep. Darrell Issa (R, CA-49 ...northern coastal area of San Diego Co. and a bit of Orange Co. 1, 2) - first elected Nov. 2000.

Jan. 8, 2018 - Rep. Ed Royce (R, CA-39 ... parts of L.A., Orange and San Bernardino Cos. 1, 2) - first elected Nov. 1992.

Jan. 4, 2018 - Rep. Gregg Harper (R, MS-3 ...south central AL running diagonally from the LA border in the west to AL border in the east 1, 2) - first elected Nov. 2008.

Jan. 2, 2018 - Rep. Bill Shuster (R, PA-9 ...south central PA 1, 2) - first elected May 15, 2001 special election.

Dec. 16, 2017 - Rep. Ruben Kihuen (D, NV-4 ...North Las Vegas and southern Nevada except the tip 1, 2) - first elected Nov. 2016.

Dec. 14, 2017 - Rep. Blake Farenthold (R, TX-27 ...Gulf Coast from Corpus Christi and area to Matagorda Co. 1, 2) - first elected Nov. 2010.  resigned Apr. 6, 2018

Dec. 3, 2017 - Rep. Sander Levin (D, MI-9 ...parts of Oakland and Macomb Cos. 1, 2) - first elected Nov. 1982.

Nov. 30, 2017 - Rep. Joe Barton (R, TX-6 ...in northeast Texas, just south of Dallas/Fort Worth 1, 2) - first elected Nov. 1984.

Nov. 28, 2017 - Rep. Luis Gutiérrez (D, IL-4 ...custom gerrymandered Hispanic district in Chicago 1, 2) - first elected Nov. 1992.

Nov. 13, 2017 - Rep. Gene Green (D, TX-29 ...curved district in eastern Houston 1, 2) - first elected Nov. 1992.

Nov. 9, 2017 - Rep. Bob Goodlatte (R, VA-6 ...north central bordering WV 1, 2) - first elected Nov. 1992.

Nov. 7, 2017 - Rep. Frank LoBiondo (R, NJ-2 ...southern part of NJ 1, 2) - first elected Nov. 1994.

Nov. 7, 2017 - Rep. Ted Poe (R, TX-2 ...curved district in western and northern Houston 1, 2) - first elected Nov. 2004.

Nov. 2, 2017 - Rep. Lamar Smith (R, TX-21 ...parts of San Antonio and Austin and an area to the west 1, 2) - first elected Nov. 1986.

Oct. 31, 2017 - Rep. Jeb Hensarling (R, TX-5 ... a bit of Dallas Co. and counties to the south and east 1, 2) - first elected Nov. 2002.

Oct. 6, 2017 - Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D, NH-1 ...Southeast NH incl. Greater Manchester and the Seacoast 1, 2) - elected in 2006 and 2008, defeated by Frank Guinta in 2010, ousted Guinta in 2012, defeated by him in 2014, and won the seat back in 2016.

Sept. 11, 2017 - Rep. Dave Trott (R, MI-11 ...Northwest of Detroit 1, 2) - first elected Nov. 2014.

Sept. 7, 2017 - Rep. Charlie Dent (R, PA-15 ...runs from East of Harrisburg to Allentown area 1, 2) - first elected Nov. 2004. announced on April 17, 2018 that he would resign in May; resigned effective May 11, 2018

Sept. 6, 2017 - Rep. Dave Reichert (R, WA-8 ...includes eastern King and Pierce Cos. 1, 2) - first elected Nov. 2004.

Aug. 9, 2017 - Rep. Niki Tsongas (D, MA-3 ...Northeastern and central MA 1, 2) - first elected Oct. 16, 2007 special election.

July 31, 2017 - Rep. John J. (Jimmy) Duncan (R, TN-2 ... East Tennessee district centered on Knoxville 1, 2) - first elected Nov. 8, 1988 special election.

April 3, 2017 - Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R, FL-27 ...Miami area including much of the city of Miami 1, 2) - first elected Aug. 29, 1989 special election.

Jan. 25, 2017 - Rep. Lynn Jenkins (R, KS-2 ...Eastern part of the state incl. Topeka and Lawrence; not Kansas City Metro 1, 2) - first elected Nov. 2008.

Jan. 6, 2017 - Rep. Sam Johnson (R, TX-3 ...a compact district north and northeast of Dallas, encompasses much of Collin Co. 1, 2) - first elected May 8, 1991 special election.

2015 - Rep. Jim Bridenstine (R, OK-1 ...Tulsa metro area 1, 2) - first elected Nov. 2012.  resigned effective April 23, 2018.

There is a definitional issue when it comes to retirements.  This category could encompass a number of different possibilities.  The narrowest definition is those who are leaving Congress at the end of their term and not seeking another elective office (straight retirements).  Next one can add those who are leaving and running for other offices.  Then, broadening the defiinition, there are those who leave before finishing their term where a special election is held and the seat filled.  Finally, there are those who are those who are defeated in primaries or die in office (involuntary retirements).  Another indicator to look at is open seats.

Defeated on Nov. 6, 2018 (30R, 0D)

Note that some of these results were not apparent until several weeks later.  For example in CA-21, TJ Cox finally declared victory on Nov. 28.  In UT-4, Rep. Mia Love (R) conceded on Nov. 26.  In ME-2, Rep. Bruce Poliquin (R) finished ahead in raw votes, but after the state's ranked choice voting was implemented on Nov. 15 Jared Golden (D) was declared the winner.  Poliquin went to court charging the system was unconstitutional, but a judge ruled against him on Dec. 14.  Gov. Paul LePage (R) only certified the result on Dec. 28.
Rep. Jeff Denham (CA-10)     ...Josh Harder
Rep. David Valadao (CA-21)     ...TJ Cox
Rep. Steve Knight (CA-25)     ...Katie Hill
Rep. Mimi Waters (CA-45)     ...Katie Porter
Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (CA-48)     ...Harley Rouda
Rep. Mike Coffman (CO-6)     ...Jason Crow
Rep. Carlos Curbelo (FL-26)     ...Debbie Mucarsel-Powell
Rep. Karen Handel (GA-6)     ...Lucy McBath
Rep. Peter Roskam (IL-6)     ...Sean Casten
Rep. Randy Hultgren (IL-14)     ...Lauren Underwood
Rep. Rod Blum (IA-1)     ...Abby Finkenauer
Rep. David Young (IA-3)     ...Cindy Axne
Rep. Kevin Yoder (KS-3)     ...Sharice Davids
Rep. Bruce Poliquin (ME-2)     ...Jared Golden
Rep Mike Bishop (MI-8)     ...Elissa Slotkin
Rep. Jason Lewis (MN-2)     ...Angie Craig
Rep. Erik Paulsen (MN-3)     ...Dean Phillips
Rep. Tom MacArthur (NJ-3)     ...Andrew Kim
Rep. Leonard Lance (NJ-7)     ...Tom Malinowski
Rep. Dan Donovan (NY-11)     ...Max Rose
Rep. John Faso (NY-19)     ...Antonio Delgado
Rep. Claudia Tenney (NY-22)     ...Anthony Brindisi
Rep. Steve Russell (OK-5)     ...Kendra Horn
Rep. Keith Rothfus (PA-12)     ...Conor Lamb
Rep. John Culberson (TX-7)     ...Lizzie Pannill Fletcher
Rep. Pete Sessions (TX-32)     ...Colin Allred
Rep. Mia Love (UT-4)     ...Ben McAdams
Rep. Scott Taylor (VA-2)     ...Elaine Luria
Rep. Dave Brat (VA-7)     ...Abigail Spanberger
Rep. Barbara Comstock (VA-10)     ...Jennifer Wexton

Not Returning as of Oct. 2018*

By State

Arizona R-Martha McSally (AZ-2) D-Kyrsten Sinema (AZ-9) California R-Ed Royce (CA-39) R-Darrell Issa (CA-49) Colorado D-Jared Polis (CO-2) Connecticut D-Elizabeth Esty (CT-5) Florida R-Ron DeSantis (FL-6) R-Dennis Ross (FL-15) R-Tom Rooney (FL-17) R-Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (FL-27) Hawaii D-Colleen Hanabusa (HI-1) Idaho R-Raúl Labrador (ID-1) Illinois D-Luis Gutiérrez (IL-4) Indiana R-Todd Rokita (IN-4) R-Luke Messer (IN-6) Kansas R-Lynn Jenkins (KS-2) Maryland D-John Delaney (MD-6) Massachusetts D-Niki Tsongas (MA-3) D-Mike Capuano (MA-7)

Michigan D-Sander Levin (MI-9) R-Dave Trott (MI-11) Minnesota D-Tim Walz (MN-1) D-Keith Ellison (MN-5) D-Rick Nolan (MN-8) Mississippi R-Gregg Harper (MS-3) Nevada D-Jacky Rosen (NV-3) D-Ruben Kihuen (NV-4) New Hampshire D-Carol Shea-Porter (NH-1) New Jersey R-Frank LoBiondo (NJ-2) R-Rodney Frelinghuysen (NJ-11) New York D-Joe Crowley (NY-14) New Mexico D-Michelle Lujan Grisham (NM-1) R-Steve Pearce (NM-2) North Carolina R-Robert Pittenger (NC-9) North Dakota R-Kevin Cramer (AL) Ohio R-Jim Renacci (OH-16) Oklahoma R-Jim Bridenstine (OK-1)

Pennsylvania D-Robert Brady (PA-1) R-Ryan Costello (PA-6) R-Patrick Meehan (PA-7) R-Bill Shuster (PA-9) R-Lou Barletta (PA-11) R-Charlie Dent (PA-15) South Carolina R-Mark Sanford (SC-1) R-Trey Gowdy (SC-4) South Dakota R-Kristi Noem (SD-AL) Tennessee R-Jimmy Duncan (TN-2) R-Diane Black (TN-6) R-Marsha Blackburn (TN-7) Texas R-Ted Poe (TX-2) R-Sam Johnson (TX-3) R-Jeb Hensarling (TX-5) R-Joe Barton (TX-6) D-Beto O'Rourke (TX-16) R-Lamar Smith (TX-21) D-Gene Green (TX-29) Virginia R-Tom Garrett (VA-5) R-Bob Goodlatte (VA-6) Washington R-Dave Reichert (WA-8) West Virginia R-Evan Jenkins (WV-3) Wisconsin R-Paul Ryan (WI-1)

By Year Elected

1990s and earlier 1982 D-Sander Levin (MI-9) 1984 R-Joe Barton (TX-6) 1986 R-Lamar Smith (TX-21) 1988 (Nov. 8) R-Jimmy Duncan (TN-2) 1989 (Aug. 29) R-Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (FL-27) 1991 (May 8) R-Sam Johnson (TX-3) 1992 R-Ed Royce (CA-39) D-Luis Gutiérrez (IL-4) D-Gene Green (TX-29) R-Bob Goodlatte (VA-6) 1994 R-Frank LoBiondo (NJ-2) R-Rodney Frelinghuysen (NJ-11) 1998 (May 19) D-Robert Brady (PA-1) 1998 D-Mike Capuano (MA-7) D-Joe Crowley (NY-14) R-Paul Ryan (WI-1)

2000s 2000 R-Darrell Issa (CA-49) 2001 (May 15) R-Bill Shuster (PA-9) 2002 R-Marsha Blackburn (TN-7) R-Jeb Hensarling (TX-5) 2004 R-Charlie Dent (PA-15) R-Ted Poe (TX-2) R-Dave Reichert (WA-8) 2006 D-Tim Walz (MN-1) D-Keith Ellison (MN-5) 2007 (Oct. 16) D-Niki Tsongas (MA-3) 2008 D-Jared Polis (CO-2) R-Tom Rooney (FL-17) R-Lynn Jenkins (KS-2) R-Gregg Harper (MS-3)

2010s 2010 R-Raúl Labrador (ID-1) R-Dennis Ross (FL-15) R-Todd Rokita (IN-4) R-Steve Pearce (NM-2)* R-Jim Renacci (OH-16) R-Patrick Meehan (PA-7) R-Lou Barletta (PA-11) R-Trey Gowdy (SC-4) R-Kristi Noem (SD-AL) R-Diane Black (TN-6) 2012 D-Kyrsten Sinema (AZ-9) D-Elizabeth Esty (CT-5) R-Ron DeSantis (FL-6) R-Luke Messer (IN-6) D-John Delaney (MD-6) D-Rick Nolan (MN-8) D-Michelle Lujan Grisham (NM-1) R-Robert Pittenger (NC-9) R-Kevin Cramer (ND-AL) R-Jim Bridenstine (OK-1) D-Beto O'Rourke (TX-16) 2013 (May 7) R-Mark Sanford (SC-1)* 2014 R-Martha McSally (AZ-2) R-Dave Trott (MI-11) R-Ryan Costello (PA-6) R-Evan Jenkins (WV-3) 2016 D-Colleen Hanabusa (HI-1)* D-Jacky Rosen (NV-3) D-Ruben Kihuen (NV-4) D-Carol Shea-Porter (NH-1)* R-Tom Garrett (VA-5)

Five exiting Members served previous stints in Congress:
- C.Hanabusa (D-HI) was elected in a Nov. 8, 2016 special election to fill out the term of Rep. Mark Takai and sworn in on Nov. 14; she was as well elected to a full term.  She previously served two terms, being elected in Nov. 2010 and 2012.

- In his first stint in Congress, R.Nolan (D-MN) was elected in 1974 and served three terms, before retiring.  

- C.Shea-Porter (D-NH) was elected in 2006 and 2008, defeated by Guinta in 2010, ousted Guinta in 2012, and defeated by him in 2014.

- S.Pearce (R-NM) previously served three terms, being elected in 2002, 2004 and 2006.

- M.Sanford (R-SC) previously served three terms, being elected in 1994, 1996 and 1998.

Primary Dates

no primaries in April or July.         
NCSL Primary Dates

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Eric M. Appleman/Democracy in Action. 
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